• The TUGBBS forums are completely free and open to the public and exist as the absolute best place for owners to get help and advice about their timeshares for more than 26 years!

    Join tens of thousands of other owners just like you here to get any and all Timeshare questions answered!
  • TUG has now saved timeshare owners more than $14,000,000 dollars just by finding us in time to rescind a new Timeshare purchase! A truly incredible milestone!

    Read more here: TUG saves owners more than $14 Million dollars
  • Follow the TUG Member Banner as it travels the world on vacation with Timeshare owners! Also sign up to get the banner sent to you so you can submit a photo of your vacation with the banner to share with TUG! Banner Thread
  • Sign up to get the TUG Newsletter for free! Join tens of thousands of other owners who get this every week! Latest resort reviews and the most important topics discussed by owners during the week!
  • Our official "end my sales presentation early" T-shirts are available again! Also come with the option for a free membership extension with purchase to offset the cost!

    Read more Here
  • A few of the most common links here on the forums for newbies and guests!

Planning for 2021-- Will the floodgates open? I hope so!

billymach4

TUG Member
Joined
Oct 20, 2006
Messages
2,381
Reaction score
389
Points
293
Location
Everywhere
Hoping that 2021 will be a competitive year and run on occupancy since this year is a bust!
Today I am coming to the realization that I should have banked my MVC points. Honestly I was in denial. Dazed and confused.

If vaccines are proven to be a successful solution into 2021 then there may be a rush to get a hold of the usage that is carried over from 2020! I sure hope so.
 

dougp26364

TUG Review Crew: Veteran
TUG Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
12,617
Reaction score
583
Points
448
Because so many systems and their owners are now in some sort of points program and most allow owners to bank points for future years, I’m thinking it could be difficult to get what those owners want when they want it. Likewise owners in traditional systems may find that exchanging into those “exclusive” systems nearly impossible as they’ll be holding onto even more inventory than normal for their owners.
Exchanging will likely be more difficult for a year or two, then even out once the surplus of saved points has been spent.
I suppose some owners will convert points to hotel rewards or use them for various other exchange opportunities such as airfare, car rentals, tour operators or cruises. I know I’m thinking of options to spend the surplus of points we’ll likely accumulate by push vacations into the future. High point options I wouldn’t ordinarily consider.
 

escanoe

TUG Member
Joined
Jun 3, 2018
Messages
476
Reaction score
241
Points
104
Location
Washington, DC
Resorts Owned
HGVC: Flamingo & Anderson Ocean Club
Woodstone (Luxury, RCI Points) at Massanutten Resort
I hope I am wrong, but I have become pessimistic on there being a huge travel rebound in 2021. A vaccine is unlikely to be a magic bullet that is near 100% effective and we are likely to face a huge number of obstacles achieving her immunity quicker.

I also think demand may vary quite a bit based on geography. Places like HHI are likely to have strong demand. Urban areas (Vegas, Orlando, and places theme park heavy like Williamsburg VA) are likely to continue to struggle. I also worry about ski locations if C-19 gets worse with flu season.

I suspect many older folks are going to be hesitant to travel. Maybe younger people and those who would have been on cruises will find more value to using timeshares. I expect more churn in ownership.

Speaking of churn, what happens in the economy could be very bad. We are likely in for something in between the Great Recession and Great Depression. I expect that will bring considerable disruption too.

I fear we are in for a wild ride and a lot of uncertainty.


If vaccines are proven to be a successful solution into 2021 then there may be a rush to get a hold of the usage that is carried over from 2020! I sure hope so.
 

DannyTS

TUG Member
Joined
Mar 24, 2018
Messages
3,487
Reaction score
1,446
Points
248
I hope I am wrong, but I have become pessimistic on there being a huge travel rebound in 2021. A vaccine is unlikely to be a magic bullet that is near 100% effective and we are likely to face a huge number of obstacles achieving her immunity quicker.

I also think demand may vary quite a bit based on geography. Places like HHI are likely to have strong demand. Urban areas (Vegas, Orlando, and places theme park heavy like Williamsburg VA) are likely to continue to struggle. I also worry about ski locations if C-19 gets worse with flu season.

I suspect many older folks are going to be hesitant to travel. Maybe younger people and those who would have been on cruises will find more value to using timeshares. I expect more churn in ownership.

Speaking of churn, what happens in the economy could be very bad. We are likely in for something in between the Great Recession and Great Depression. I expect that will bring considerable disruption too.

I fear we are in for a wild ride and a lot of uncertainty.
A vaccine, even if successful, will not be 100% effective on everyone and, if the flu vaccine is any guidance, may be the least effective on older people. Would someone whose chances of being infected dropped by 50% act so differently than before getting the vaccine? Probably somewhat differently but not a lot.
 
Last edited:

CPNY

TUG Member
Joined
Jun 18, 2019
Messages
3,275
Reaction score
1,396
Points
249
Resorts Owned
Harborside Resort at Atlantis
SVV - Key West
SVV - Bella
Regal Vista at Massanutten
A vaccine, even if successful, will not be 100% effective on everyone and, if the flu vaccine is any guidance, may be the list effective on older people. Would someone whose chances of being infected dropped by 50% act so differently than before getting the vaccine? Probably somewhat differently but not a lot.
Let’s not forget most people have already been exposed to Covid and don’t even know it. If you get the flu you know it, if you get Covid you may not know it.
 

escanoe

TUG Member
Joined
Jun 3, 2018
Messages
476
Reaction score
241
Points
104
Location
Washington, DC
Resorts Owned
HGVC: Flamingo & Anderson Ocean Club
Woodstone (Luxury, RCI Points) at Massanutten Resort
Let’s not forget most people have already been exposed to Covid and don’t even know it.
This is unlikely to be accurate, and not sure what it would mean if true. See the article from Johns Hopkins, Early Herd Immunity against COVID-19: A Dangerous Misconception. In the hard hit area of New York, they say studies indicate from 15 to 21% have been exposed. It is not clear what that mean in terms of hitting herd immunity, but we are nowhere close. A vaccine could help us get there somewhere between a little and a lot faster.
 

escanoe

TUG Member
Joined
Jun 3, 2018
Messages
476
Reaction score
241
Points
104
Location
Washington, DC
Resorts Owned
HGVC: Flamingo & Anderson Ocean Club
Woodstone (Luxury, RCI Points) at Massanutten Resort
If you get the flu you know it, if you get Covid you may not know it.
Also probably not true ... as it pertains to the flu.


As many as 50% of infections with normal seasonal flu may be asymptomatic, which may in part be due to pre-existing partial immunity. Asymptomatic patients shed virus and can transmit the disease, but not at the same rate as symptomatic individuals, which creates an invisible “reservoir” for the virus.
 

CPNY

TUG Member
Joined
Jun 18, 2019
Messages
3,275
Reaction score
1,396
Points
249
Resorts Owned
Harborside Resort at Atlantis
SVV - Key West
SVV - Bella
Regal Vista at Massanutten
This is unlikely to be accurate, and not sure what it would mean if true. See the article from Johns Hopkins, Early Herd Immunity against COVID-19: A Dangerous Misconception. In the hard hit area of New York, they say studies indicate from 15 to 21% have been exposed. It is not clear what that mean in terms of hitting herd immunity, but we are nowhere close. A vaccine could help us get there somewhere between a little and a lot faster.
I’ve read other articles where the 21% exposure in NYC is more on the low end. People in NYC are not model citizens. It’s the only explanation for not spiking. I live here, I see what’s happening. Plenty of non distancing and plenty of non mask wearing people. Exposure is high. They are basing numbers off antibody tests? Those are unreliable and antibodies are undetected in most cases a few weeks later. Leaving many to suspect T Cell immunity is what has fought off the virus in many people.
 

CPNY

TUG Member
Joined
Jun 18, 2019
Messages
3,275
Reaction score
1,396
Points
249
Resorts Owned
Harborside Resort at Atlantis
SVV - Key West
SVV - Bella
Regal Vista at Massanutten
Also probably not true ... as it pertains to the flu.


As many as 50% of infections with normal seasonal flu may be asymptomatic, which may in part be due to pre-existing partial immunity. Asymptomatic patients shed virus and can transmit the disease, but not at the same rate as symptomatic individuals, which creates an invisible “reservoir” for the virus.
Well then we need to shut down until we eradicate the flu each year. Actually we should never open again truthfully.
 

escanoe

TUG Member
Joined
Jun 3, 2018
Messages
476
Reaction score
241
Points
104
Location
Washington, DC
Resorts Owned
HGVC: Flamingo & Anderson Ocean Club
Woodstone (Luxury, RCI Points) at Massanutten Resort
I’ve read other articles where the 21% exposure in NYC is more on the low end.
You started this off by saying “most people have already been exposed to Covid and don’t even know it.” I assumed you meant at least in the USA if not globally. What shred of evidence is there that that is the case?
 

escanoe

TUG Member
Joined
Jun 3, 2018
Messages
476
Reaction score
241
Points
104
Location
Washington, DC
Resorts Owned
HGVC: Flamingo & Anderson Ocean Club
Woodstone (Luxury, RCI Points) at Massanutten Resort
Well then we need to shut down until we eradicate the flu each year. Actually we should never open again truthfully.
i don’t know anyone that thinks we should shut down until the flu is eradicated. In my opinion they would be just as wrong as someone saying that there is no asymptomatic carriers of the flu. I’m not big on political arguments on TUG, but to the extent we are talking about health information and COVID, we should try to keep medical information accurate.
 

easyrider

TUG Review Crew: Expert
TUG Member
Joined
Aug 21, 2005
Messages
8,654
Reaction score
2,585
Points
498
Location
Palm Springs of Washinton
Resorts Owned
Worldmark * * Villa Del Palmar UVCI * * Vacation Internationale*
I remember the h1n1 flu back in 2009 hit Mexico's tourism very hard. It was very easy to trade, buy or rent almost anything in Mexico. This Covid 19 is likely going to do the same for all timeshares. It took about three years for things to reset to normal because of h1n1 and the economic problems everywhere. Even with a vaccine, I bet it takes much longer to reset this time unless the economy bounces back.

Many people that travel every year will fall out of the travel groove for the next two or three years. One way or another, many people will relinquish their timeshares because they have issues.

That being said, we have canceled reservations for 2020 and 2021 but we have also made some reservation for 2020 and 2021. We now have seven weeks deposited and three weeks banked. I'm hoping the deposits generate some good hits. We will see.

Bill
 

CPNY

TUG Member
Joined
Jun 18, 2019
Messages
3,275
Reaction score
1,396
Points
249
Resorts Owned
Harborside Resort at Atlantis
SVV - Key West
SVV - Bella
Regal Vista at Massanutten
i don’t know anyone that thinks we should shut down until the flu is eradicated. In my opinion they would be just as wrong as someone saying that there is no asymptomatic carriers of the flu. I’m not big on political arguments on TUG, but to the extent we are talking about health information and COVID, we should try to keep medical information accurate.
It’s quite hard to keep medical information accurate when even the so called experts have flip flopped. Considering CV19 is much more contagious than the flu, the amount of cases that went undocumented or asymptomatic (based on limited antibody results, knowing that antibodies are gone within weeks) are most likely much higher than the flu. Really if I’m understanding you correctly, you’re saying this is no more severe than the seasonal flu. My comment was a flippant comment. Furthermore, the flu puts people at risk of death. We need to test everyone for the flu each year. Test all athletes for the flu and play all indoor winter sports with no fans going forward.
 

geist1223

Guest
Joined
May 20, 2015
Messages
3,197
Reaction score
2,676
Points
299
Location
Salem Oregon
Resorts Owned
Worldmark 89,000
Seaside Oregon Residence Club
DRI Hawaiian Collection 50,500
Royal Solaris San Jose del Cabo
One indicator of a good scientist is the ability to adjust. A scientist will have a belief/thesis about a process or disease. Then more information is gained through experience, testing, studies. A good scientist takes in this new information and will adjust their opinions/beliefs accordingly.
 

billymach4

TUG Member
Joined
Oct 20, 2006
Messages
2,381
Reaction score
389
Points
293
Location
Everywhere
What are you all talking about here. Let's stick to the title of the Thread please.

We have enough threads about COVID. I want to get out and go on vacation one of these years.

Now.... Lets all have a fantasy discussion about 2021. Make believe a vaccine works. Just please make believe.
Now in the make believe world how will the rush to get back to timesharing work when there is so much pent up demand from this years banked weeks/points/ vacation time.

No hijacking allowed.
 

easyrider

TUG Review Crew: Expert
TUG Member
Joined
Aug 21, 2005
Messages
8,654
Reaction score
2,585
Points
498
Location
Palm Springs of Washinton
Resorts Owned
Worldmark * * Villa Del Palmar UVCI * * Vacation Internationale*
Now in the make believe world how will the rush to get back to timesharing work when there is so much pent up demand from this years banked weeks/points/ vacation time.
Have you made any reservations ?

Bill
 

Ralph Sir Edward

TUG Member
Joined
Jul 8, 2013
Messages
933
Reaction score
639
Points
203
Location
Plano, Texas
It's a hard one to estimate. In 2021, will the fear abate enough to have places open to travel to? The timeshare I own at is closed. Completely. When will it open? Shrug. When will Hawaii open enough to incoming travel to allow the timeshare to have enough business to open? Otherwise, it doesn't matter what I am willing to risk, it's out of my control. . .

My guess is the 2021 will be a loser year for travel. 2022 looks better. (Yes, I expect to pay my MFs for nothing next year. Fortunes of war. . . )
 

Passepartout

TUG Review Crew: Veteran
TUG Member
Joined
Feb 10, 2007
Messages
22,889
Reaction score
7,478
Points
799
Location
Twin Falls, Eye-Duh-Hoe
Plan for the best outcome, but prepare for the worst. Like everyone, we want to travel, go to restaurants, bars, theaters, on cruises. But realistically, without an effective vaccine, or sure-fire treatment, generally available, it ain't gonna happen. If an effective vaccine were OK'd today, and a million doses could be produced EVERY DAY, it would take more than a year to produce enough for just the USA! And 20 years more for just China and India! We can't even produce tests to show who is infected within a week reliably. So make your ressies, but plan for an extended time (maybe years) with those masks.

Jim
 

elaine

TUG Member
Joined
Jun 8, 2005
Messages
3,928
Reaction score
860
Points
348
Location
DC
Resorts Owned
DVC-AKV, HHI, Waterside By Spinnaker
I booked 1 week fall 2021 Hawaii with RCI and will try to book flights on FF miles and other lodging with points that I can canx at 30 days out. I will have 1 RCI fee and airline redeposit fees on the hook if I need to canx at last minute.
After having a decent amount tied to a European trip sept 2020, I'm not putting down any more large cruise/tour/lodging deposits. I eventually got it all back, but with a hassle. I don't want any "credits" on any travel related products.
 

JuliGee

Guest
Joined
Jul 26, 2009
Messages
158
Reaction score
20
Points
178
Location
California
Because so many systems and their owners are now in some sort of points program and most allow owners to bank points for future years, I’m thinking it could be difficult to get what those owners want when they want it. Likewise owners in traditional systems may find that exchanging into those “exclusive” systems nearly impossible as they’ll be holding onto even more inventory than normal for their owners.
Exchanging will likely be more difficult for a year or two, then even out once the surplus of saved points has been spent.
I suppose some owners will convert points to hotel rewards or use them for various other exchange opportunities such as airfare, car rentals, tour operators or cruises. I know I’m thinking of options to spend the surplus of points we’ll likely accumulate by push vacations into the future. High point options I wouldn’t ordinarily consider.
I am hearing exactly the same thing from the exchange company I use. Because of almost no owner bookings for personal use or exchange activity this year due to covid, many resorts are anticipating very high owner bookings next year with carried over time, which will create very little space for exchange activity, and like you say, it will probably take a couple of years to balance out where exchanging opens up.

Juli
 
Top