Hi Perry,
So somebody went to Vegas and believe they "beat the house", due to their superior skills? Wow, that's a first.
Any decision made by a knowledgeable decision with all information available is, by definition, the "right" decision for that person. We can't know how much Perry will value the usage he gets (if any. How many week 52's can one family use?) So all we can comment on is this investment from a purely financial standpoint.
I've purchased a number of timeshares with as high or higher original developer costs (in 2007 dollars) as Perry paid for this timeshare. And I've always bought them for pennies on the dollar. I've done so strictly as an investment, not for usage, so it's perhaps not the same type of purchase as Perry's. One thing is a constant; timeshare prices go down over time, compared to equivalent real estate. It may not go down in a straight line, it may have a brief spike up (if you truly beat the house due to your mad skills at negotiating, or due to ROFR), but it will go down relative to real estate over time. You WILL lose a ton of money if you don't get out early. How early is open for debate. Once the resort is sold out or the ROFR ends (whichever comes last), the depreciation will be in a straight line. How steep that line is may be debatable, but the straight line isn't, in my opinion.
No matter your negotiating skills, here are the facts. Unless the property is distressed, you paid at least enough to cover the underlying real estate cost, plus sales & marketing expenses. So even if you negotiated away their entire profit (not likely), you still paid 3 - 5 times the underlying real estate value. Over time, the value will be less than the underlying real estate value.
As for comparing L.V. to Beaver Creek week 52? Apples and oranges. Week 52 isn't even the highest demand week in Las Vegas. Comdex week is more difficult to find lodging. At Beaver Creek, week 52 carries a huge premium over other weeks. In L.V., the premium isn't as much on the open market. Ski resorts are perhaps the most seasonal timeshares around, since the ski season is so short. And Beaver Creek is among the highest demand/shortest supply, with only 4 timeshares on the mountain and a handful in Avon. Las Vegas has a MUCH longer prime season.
Unlike a ski resort, there's no shortage of available land in Vegas for newer, better timeshares. Look for the area around the Cancun casino to be fully developed with casinos/hotels that are even better and more expensive than the ones around Caeser's Palace.
As for including rentals in the financial analysis, it may help in the early years, while this is a newer property with low maintenance fees. But over time, many more newer, better timeshares will be built in Vegas. And I expect maintenance fees to skyrocket over time. As with the hotels in Vegas, and as with timeshares in Orlando, the bar is constantly being raised. It'll be tough to count on rentals helping that much over the long haul.
I'd rate this is as a poor investment choice, from a purely financial standpoint. Just my opinion.