Odd concern about testing very promising vaccine

["Roger"]

Perhaps this post should go in this thread (Possible Covid-19 treatments and vaccines), but it is such a surprising story, I thought people not following that thread might want to see it.

The bottom line is that the outbreak of the disease is falling so fast in Great Britain, they might not be able to test the efficacy of what might be the most promising vaccine because the people given the vaccine in the wide spread trial won't have been exposed to enough carriers to know if the vaccine is working. Two links are provided below.

Oxford scientists working on a coronavirus vaccine say there is now only a 50% chance of success because the number of UK cases is falling too quickly

The Oxford mission to find a COVID-19 vaccine is in "a race against the virus disappearing, and against time," scientists Adam Hill said.

www.businessinsider.com

AstraZeneca boss confident Covid-19 vaccine can succeed

The drug giant has teamed up with Oxford University to provide millions of doses should the clinical trials work.

www.yahoo.com

 

[b2bailey]

Perhaps they can fly some over to the Indian reservations that are struggling.

 

[cissy]

I'm curious as to why the number of cases in London are falling so rapidly.

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

Burn Through? Hang on until fall, if there is a recurrence then you can have a valid test. . .

 

[x3 skier]

Interesting Data about how the virus affects various age groups. Scenario 5 is based on current data and the others are various assumptions.

Healthcare Workers

COVID-19 guidance, tools, and resources for healthcare workers.

www.cdc.gov

Cheers

 

["Roger"]

There was an interesting article in the Washington Post a number of days ago that said which age groups are being affected is very different in developing nations. A quote from the article ...

In Brazil, 15 percent of deaths have been people under 50 — a rate more than 10 times greater than in Italy or Spain. In Mexico, the trend is even more stark: Nearly one-fourth of the dead have been between 25 and 49. In India, officials reported this month that nearly half of the dead were younger than 60. In Rio de Janeiro state, more than two-thirds of hospitalizations are for people younger than 49. ​

I don't have the faintest idea why it would be so different.

 

[PigsDad]

I don't have the faintest idea why it would be so different.

Just taking an educated guess -- poverty. Brazil, Mexico and India have a vast poverty issue, and that is reflected in the state of their healthcare.

Kurt

 

[normab]

There was an interesting article in the Washington Post a number of days ago that said which age groups are being affected is very different in developing nations. A quote from the article ...

In Brazil, 15 percent of deaths have been people under 50 — a rate more than 10 times greater than in Italy or Spain. In Mexico, the trend is even more stark: Nearly one-fourth of the dead have been between 25 and 49. In India, officials reported this month that nearly half of the dead were younger than 60. In Rio de Janeiro state, more than two-thirds of hospitalizations are for people younger than 49. ​

I don't have the faintest idea why it would be so different.

Having been to Brazil (for work) several times in the early 2000s, I am not so surprised. There is a lot of poverty and so many people live cardboard shacks in the highly populated areas. Poor nutrition and poor hygiene, not a good recipe for any age in a pandemic.