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New Thinking on Covid Lockdowns: They’re Overly Blunt and Costly

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PigsDad

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To get to herd immunity we would need about 2 million to die. Any volunteers? And how long will that immunity last? That herd may need to be thinned over and over again.
Can you let us know how you came up with that number?

Kurt
 

PigsDad

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A whole lot of assumptions in that article. And even with all of those assumptions, it doesn't come close to 2 million.

So if people can get re-infected, what good does a vaccine do? With all these worst-case assumptions, seems like the end game is that we all going to die from Covid, right? ;)

Kurt
 

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I appreciate your viewpoint but feel a need to point out that the people I love who are being overworked directly on the front lines in caregiver positions, at Boston-area hospitals and nursing homes, have good reason to dispute what you claim so aggressively. As only one point of contention, "surge capacity" as far as the number of beds is useless if there is not a national plan in place during a nationwide pandemic to route staffing and supplies to hardest-hit areas in order to actually use those beds.
Need for a national plan? Absolutely. But it is NOT true that every state/city/area was NYC like media wants to portray. Those hit hardest were still able to handle it-did NOT say it was easy or that couldn't have been done better. HOWEVER this continued BS about "not overrunning hospitals" or the "Virus is rampant and will KILL you NOW" has also got to stop as people are NOT seeking care or preventative care for MONTHS now. The toll of this will take years to sort out, and will likely be far more costly (in human lives and suffering) than what covid has done. This is coming from multiple experts who have predicted global food insecurity/starvation/diseases will all drastically increase. heck even prominent physicians here are saying they are very worried about measles and TB making a big impact. Every time yet another article says "hospitals were overrun" like it was common place everywhere someone will think "at least I didn't contribute to that" by forgoing care they needed.
 

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A whole lot of assumptions in that article. And even with all of those assumptions, it doesn't come close to 2 million.

So if people can get re-infected, what good does a vaccine do? With all these worst-case assumptions, seems like the end game is that we all going to die from Covid, right? ;)

Kurt
well we get a new flu vaccine every year because of mutations. It's a new virus and it will probably be 10+ years of research before we have a really good handle on it. Every week scientist have more data to go on.

within a year or so we might be back to closer to normal, but even with a relatively effective vaccine we won't be back to the old normal.
 

Monykalyn

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A whole lot of assumptions in that article. And even with all of those assumptions, it doesn't come close to 2 million.

So if people can get re-infected, what good does a vaccine do? With all these worst-case assumptions, seems like the end game is that we all going to die from Covid, right? ;)

Kurt
And a horrible obvious slant. Of COURSE we want herd immunity-whether through vaccine/natural etc that IS the end goal. To paint "herd immunity" as bad is willfully promoting an agenda. No one is advocating "let 'er rip" but let's face facts-in many places that has already happened, with vaccines it will now be easier to get to community level immunity. And to continue to insist on comparing sweden to ONLY other Nordic countries is also willfully cherry picking. Loss of credibility when you cannot see ALL aspects of something.
 

SueDonJ

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Need for a national plan? Absolutely. But it is NOT true that every state/city/area was NYC like media wants to portray. Those hit hardest were still able to handle it-did NOT say it was easy or that couldn't have been done better. HOWEVER this continued BS about "not overrunning hospitals" or the "Virus is rampant and will KILL you NOW" has also got to stop as people are NOT seeking care or preventative care for MONTHS now. The toll of this will take years to sort out, and will likely be far more costly (in human lives and suffering) than what covid has done. This is coming from multiple experts who have predicted global food insecurity/starvation/diseases will all drastically increase. heck even prominent physicians here are saying they are very worried about measles and TB making a big impact. Every time yet another article says "hospitals were overrun" like it was common place everywhere someone will think "at least I didn't contribute to that" by forgoing care they needed.

Nothing I said was meant to infer that I think every area is/was impacted to the same extent as the one with which I'm familiar. Whatever media you're watching/hearing that's telling you every state has been dealing with the exact same scenario, you might want to listen to something different. Here, the results of not having a national plan overseen at the federal level meant that when the supplies/staffing needed to be supplemented to cover the disaster-level emergency, not enough help was provided. Here, as much as it's acknowledged that the shutdown effects are hurting patients/residents in longterm care facilities, it's not been acknowledged at all that the caregivers are going to be dealing with PTSD issues for years to come. Here, hospital staff are being left to their own coping devices and let's be honest, no training or job experience in the last hundred years has prepared overworked and underpaid medical/support staff for the nightmare they've been facing every damned day since late February. Whatever you call, "handling it," I call being forced to shut off your brain and just do your job today so that the next shift can do theirs. Whatever damage you think is being done to people who have put off their own medical care for fear of contracting COVID, I think the damage being done to frontline caregivers is far worse because we're forcing them to forge on as if this is normal and they don't deserve aid coming to their rescue.

All of this is just so damned sad. If in hindsight we're learning that some areas of the country did not need the most extreme reaction, so be it. Far better to overreact than what has been an utterly disastrous under-reaction, beginning with ridiculing the science-based and commonsense directives in the name of some ridiculously politicized "personal freedom" crusade, continuing through forcing the individual states to compete against each other for necessary supplies, and resulting in the numbers now being counted - or discounted - based on whether states are red or blue.

"Put on a mask. Wash your hands. Realize that you can be a carrier and not show symptoms, so limit your group activities and travel only when necessary. Recognize that where the numbers dictate, we will have to shut down." If only we'd had a unified response based on science and compassion with our leaders acting as examples, rather than whatever this shitshow is that has brought us to the point where despite all the experts' warnings we allowed the virus to get out of control but we also allowed ourselves to be convinced that responding to it appropriately is an infringement on our civil liberties ... it's mind-numbingly infuriating.
 
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WVBaker

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All of this is just so damned sad. If in hindsight we're learning that some areas of the country did not need the most extreme reaction, so be it. Far better to overreact than what has been an utterly disastrous under-reaction, beginning with ridiculing the science-based and commonsense directives in the name of some ridiculously politicized "personal freedom" crusade, continuing through forcing the individual states to compete against each other for necessary supplies, and resulting in the numbers now being counted - or discounted - based on whether states are red or blue.

That's quite the passionate, albeit I think a bit political, comment. Can you offer any proof as to the "necessary supplies" or would it be simply a personal indictment?
 

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Since everyone seems to distrust the media these days you will probably not take this as "proof". What type of proof would you accept?


It's an interesting opinion piece by Andrew Soergel however, it's blatantly political and clearly leaning in one direction.

If possible, find direct, non-political and definitive proof of the accusations. If not, I think we can both agree it's nothing more than an attempt to push one's own agenda, regardless of that agenda.
 

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It's an interesting opinion piece by Andrew Soergel however, it's blatantly political and clearly leaning in one direction.

If possible, find direct, non-political and definitive proof of the accusations. If not, I think we can both agree it's nothing more than an attempt to push one's own agenda, regardless of that agenda.
I'll ask again, what would you consider a direct, non-politcal source for definitive proof. And maybe I should ask you to provide this showing that this is just pushing one's own agenda. In other words proof that this wasn't happening. I remember hearing statements from our governor, among others, about how they were having to compete for equipment.
 

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I'll ask again, what would you consider a direct, non-politcal source for definitive proof. And maybe I should ask you to provide this showing that this is just pushing one's own agenda. In other words proof that this wasn't happening. I remember hearing statements from our governor, among others, about how they were having to compete for equipment.


Perhaps any documents indicating the reason for the delivery of those, "necessary supplies", was in fact, as the writer claimed, "based on whether states are red or blue". I wasn't the one claiming the reason for the deliveries, which I think we can both agree is simply, personal opinion and nothing more. Which of course is fine however, don't present it as fact. We all have our opinions which should clearly be presented and noted as just that, opinions.

Keep in mind, speculation is nothing more than speculation and not facts.

I should also add, by claiming any decision was based on, "whether states are red or blue", is purely political and as such, perhaps it's best that we not drift into that arena any further. Be my guest if you choose to do so though. ;)
 

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That's quite the passionate, albeit I think a bit political, comment. Can you offer any proof as to the "necessary supplies" or would it be simply a personal indictment?

Several governors shared their own experiences with trying to gather PPE, ventilators, etc with one or two even mentioning that they resorted to eBay. If you're more comfortable with questioning the media outlets who told those stories or with the governors' honesty than you are with questioning why they may have been put in that position, there's nothing I or anyone else could say to convince you that maybe your agenda needs some examining.

Aside from that I'm relying on the reports from my loved ones who have been on the front lines: my son who is a nursing home administrator and had to reach desperation before the state was finally able to muster National Guard resources on a limited (but admittedly much-welcomed) basis, my daughter-in-law who is a nurse and was re-assigned to a COVID floor in a major Boston-area hospital, my sister who is a nurse assigned to a COVID floor in a major hospital in Boston's Longwood medical district and says nothing in her 40+years career could have prepared her for the experience, my son-in-law who works for a medical staffing firm and says in his office they all know that nothing in the firm's history has required this level of engagement, my daughter who's a teacher and like all the others had to be thrown into the virtual learning environment with literally no advance knowledge ... I also have several friends in the medical field who've related some of their frustrations and sadness.

Granted, I live where there is a very large concentration of medical facilities including major hospitals and research centers so it's more common than not to know people who are on the front lines. Whether it's believable or not, none of the people I know in those positions are thinking in terms of politics; they're just trying to keep their heads on straight dealing with the nightmare they're living. And although you can probably read my political leanings, and I certainly rant and rave about them on twitter, I don't talk with them in terms of politics. They don't need to hear this crap - their lives are already impacted far too much by it.
 

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Perhaps any documents indicating the reason for the delivery of those, "necessary supplies", was in fact, as the writer claimed, "based on whether states are red or blue". I wasn't the one claiming the reason for the deliveries, which I think we can both agree is simply, personal opinion and nothing more. Which of course is fine however, don't present it as fact. We all have our opinions which should clearly be presented and noted as just that, opinions.

Keep in mind, speculation is nothing more than speculation and not facts.

I should also add, by claiming any decision was based on, "whether states are red or blue", is purely political and as such, perhaps it's best that we not drift into that arena any further. Be my guest if you choose to do so though. ;)

I didn't say that supply deliveries were based on whether states are red or blue. I said the numbers are being counted - or discounted - according to whether states are red or blue. That happened just the other day at the top level of the federal government so if you care to verify it, the quote is easily found with a simple google search.
 
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bluehende

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How do we really know?? Is that based off current numbers assuming that only those who tested positive had the virus? How do we really know when it was in the community? Well, in NYC it was in the community WELL before March. Antibody testing is unreliable. My doctor just tested positive for antibodies again after months prior testing positive then multiple negative tests.

the testing, reporting, and media have made information disseminated inaccurate and inconsistent. Who really knows at this point. NYC May have already reached herd immunity
So you volunteer to be the next death in NYC. If they are completely immune you are safe right.

And again all the herders ignore the fact we have no idea how long it will last. Other corona virus immunity does not last long. Pretty risky bet that it will be different this time.

PS Herd immunity is a term that was coined because vaccines get there. There has never been a disease eliminated by herd immunity without one.
 
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bluehende

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A whole lot of assumptions in that article. And even with all of those assumptions, it doesn't come close to 2 million.

So if people can get re-infected, what good does a vaccine do? With all these worst-case assumptions, seems like the end game is that we all going to die from Covid, right? ;)

Kurt
Maybe it's like the flu shot. They give them every year.
 

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So you volunteer to be the next death in NYC.

That’s just a terrible thing to say to someone............. especially since I had it and experienced severe effects for months. You should be ashamed of yourself. Very very sad. Telling someone who suffered pretty badly with the virus “to be the next death” to prove your point is pretty low.
 

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the thinning of the "herd"
Only the best and strongest survive for a more prosperous nation !


View attachment 26666

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/88401
The .65% (actually now believed to be more like .4-.5%) is the OVERALL presumed case acquired death rate. But that includes all ages, including the most vulnerable that die at much higher rates than the overall number.

What if those 213 million going forward are mostly very young with significantly lower death rates (as the vulnerable continue to shelter), maybe closer to .1%? Then the total deaths would be about 220,000 - 250,000.
 

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This thread has been closed - before you start another controversial thread, think twice, and then don't do it.
 
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