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Moving the Covid-19 Goal Posts

b2bailey

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In another thread, someone used this term and it struck a chord in me. The idea that we would all shelter in place until a vaccine is available rankles me beyond my comfort zone. Is there an additional assumption that we would all be required to receive the vaccine?

When the time comes to release restrictions at some level, I feel people are then free to choose to stay home, continue precautions, avoid groups, etc at whatever level seems right for them.

The idea that I could be required to stay home and wait for a vaccine is unfathomable to me.
 

DaveNV

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I think asking everyone to stay at home until a vaccine is available is unrealistic. Even if one is available, not everyone would be able to get it, and a certain amount of risk would still be out there. So there's that side of the question.

Dave
 
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Ralph Sir Edward

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Vaccine - or- treatment. If we can reduce the severity to something non-lethal via treatment, then we can free up the restrictions.
 

elaine

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I also don't know how the proof of immunity (meaning they've had C19) theory would work. For working poor (as well as others at higher pay grades who cannot "afford" not to work), I could imagine underground C19 infection "parties" to get C19 to then be able to get a card to work, esp. for relatively healthy under 60.
And what about colleges next year--only those with C19 cards can attend/live in dorms? Public school? Taken further, ride mass transit? That leaves out everyone who successfully social distanced.
 

Passepartout

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Something similar was addressed on NPR's Weekend Addition this morning (it's archived if you ncare to listen) with a doctor who has had a bout of Covid-19 and recovered. He described the experience (no picnic) and discussed not the WHEN of opening businesses and getting bach to the 'old' normal, but HOW to do it. At some point a an antibody test will be released and then we will know who has some immunity, perhaps carried over from earlier infections. Then susceptible people who come down with Covid-19 can be tracked along with their associations over previous days. Like the way tuburculosis was isolated and made to essentially disappear. Ultimately there will be some level of 'herd immunity' even before a vaccine is widely distributed.

Jim
 

VacationForever

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I think SIP/SAH restriction will be lifted very soon. I suspect that everyone would be asked to wear a mask when out, much like in Asia. For the high risk / vulnerable folks, they will be encouraged to stay home. Until there is effective treatment and/or vaccine, my husband and I will be very much homebound except to safe activities like golfing in our own cart.
 

WVBaker

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I also don't know how the proof of immunity (meaning they've had C19) theory would work. For working poor (as well as others at higher pay grades who cannot "afford" not to work), I could imagine underground C19 infection "parties" to get C19 to then be able to get a card to work, esp. for relatively healthy under 60.
And what about colleges next year--only those with C19 cards can attend/live in dorms? Public school? Taken further, ride mass transit? That leaves out everyone who successfully social distanced.

Dr. Anthony Fauci: Americans could eventually carry certificates of immunity to coronavirus
 

DrQ

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I suspect that SIP will be the recommendation for a class of the population (age, comorbidity factors ... etc) until there is a herd immunity and/or vaccine.

You choose your own level of risk. I'm going to be working from home for quite some time.
 

am1

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I do not see anything changing for awhile. The US is a big place with a few hotspots. Go back to normal and it spreads quickly to other places.
 

moonstone

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In the ideal world, which likely wont happen, there needs to be no new cases of COVID19 anywhere in the world for a period of time that exceeds the incubation period. The incubation period for COVID19 seems to be 14 days, although I have read reports of it being 21 days. If just one case is still active anywhere in the world the whole thing can keep going around. I haven't seen any information about the chances of getting infected more than once and if that happens is the 2nd time worse or milder than the first. Anybody who has worked in health care, especially in a hospital or long term care home, knows that when there is an outbreak, either gastro or respiratory, everybody needs to be symptom free for 48-72 hrs (the length of time for most of those) before the lockdown is lifted.

When all this first started and our DD said oh well the shut down will only be 2 weeks, I told her it will be a way longer than 2 months -just wait and see! We are not booking any vacations for this year and I'm seriously thinking of banking our week in November at our home resort in Florida as I don't know if anybody will be travelling by then.


~Diane
 

Passepartout

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It's REALLY this simple. The virus does not- CANNOT- spread on it's own. PEOPLE SPREAD IT. if people move about freely, the infection rate will increase. If they stay separated and isolated, the virus will die down and fewer people will become infected and fewer will die.

If people have a sense of 'freedom' to open up and move about, there WILL BE a resurgence of infection to follow in 2-3 weeks afterward.
 

elaine

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I wonder how much wearing masks esp on mass transit and more handwashing would help reduce spread?
 

am1

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14/21 days is not enough as cases can go undetected. But does not have to be the whole world. It is likely impossible to eliminate all the cases world wide unless it burns out. Just each city, island, state, country needs to be case free and then free movement within those areas.
 

WVBaker

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It's REALLY this simple. The virus does not- CANNOT- spread on it's own. PEOPLE SPREAD IT. if people move about freely, the infection rate will increase. If they stay separated and isolated, the virus will die down and fewer people will become infected and fewer will die.

If people have a sense of 'freedom' to open up and move about, there WILL BE a resurgence of infection to follow in 2-3 weeks afterward.

So based on the resurgence theory, just how long should we keep this "shelter in place" concept going?
 
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