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Mauna Loa erupting at summit crater - 27/11/22

mjm1

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We are scheduled to fly to Kona next Monday, stay at King’s Land for 5 nights and then fly to Maui, so are also keeping an eye on this and considering our options.

Best regards.

Mike
 

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We’re planning our first trip back to Hawaii since covid. Wow, this is like Summer 2018. We were going to do 2 weeks at the Bay Club on the Big Island and 2 weeks at Lagoon Tower at HHV when Kilauea erupted. Luckily we were able to move the Bay Club reservation to Hokulani and we just did 4 weeks on Oahu. We’re still months away but I think I better have a back up plan.
 

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thanks Scoop I hope your farm will be ok. As I understand it the flow is fairly slow and we should have time to evacuate? Debating on changing plans.

We are scheduled to fly to Kona next Monday, stay at King’s Land for 5 nights and then fly to Maui, so are also keeping an eye on this and considering our options.

If you look at the maps of the Mauna Loa rift zones in post #27 by @lynne , you can see the main risk would be toward Hilo, and maybe to the southwest toward South Point if the SW rift zone were to activate (which isn't expected). Anyone traveling to Kohala/Waikoloa should have no issues, other than maybe an increase in Vog. The only other impact might be if the flows were to eventually reach the Saddle Road between Kohala and Hilo, it would mean that shortcut to/from Hilo would be severed for a while, requiring the long drive around the south tip or around the northeast coast that we all had to do before Saddle Road was improved years ago.

If I were traveling to Waikoloa tomorrow, there's no way I would even contemplate a change. While it's correct the risk is non-zero, there's also always the risk a major earthquake somewhere in the Pacific rim could generate a tsunami on Hawaii with no warning. I would expect the risk of this eruption requiring an evacuation of Waikoloa to be in the same probability category as a major tsunami - not zero, but very, very, very low.

Waikoloa would have more to be concerned about if Hualalai were to erupt one day. I believe it is still considered active, even though it has not erupted in over 200 years.
 

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I just spoke with a rep at King Land and they are operating as usual at this time. No expectation that things will change, but they are listening for what the mayor will say. I also spoke with a rep with Hawaiian Airlines and they are operating as usual as well. Hopefully things stay that way but time will tell.

Best regards.

Mike
 

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If you look at the maps of the Mauna Loa rift zones in post #27 by @lynne , you can see the main risk would be toward Hilo, and maybe to the southwest toward South Point if the SW rift zone were to activate (which isn't expected). Anyone traveling to Kohala/Waikoloa should have no issues, other than maybe an increase in Vog. The only other impact might be if the flows were to eventually reach the Saddle Road between Kohala and Hilo, it would mean that shortcut to/from Hilo would be severed for a while, requiring the long drive around the south tip or around the northeast coast that we all had to do before Saddle Road was improved years ago.

If I were traveling to Waikoloa tomorrow, there's no way I would even contemplate a change. While it's correct the risk is non-zero, there's also always the risk a major earthquake somewhere in the Pacific rim could generate a tsunami on Hawaii with no warning. I would expect the risk of this eruption requiring an evacuation of Waikoloa to be in the same probability category as a major tsunami - not zero, but very, very, very low.

Waikoloa would have more to be concerned about if Hualalai were to erupt one day. I believe it is still considered active, even though it has not erupted in over 200 years.
Thanks Jim. Helps a lot.
 

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If you look at the maps of the Mauna Loa rift zones in post #27 by @lynne , you can see the main risk would be toward Hilo, and maybe to the southwest toward South Point if the SW rift zone were to activate (which isn't expected). Anyone traveling to Kohala/Waikoloa should have no issues, other than maybe an increase in Vog. The only other impact might be if the flows were to eventually reach the Saddle Road between Kohala and Hilo, it would mean that shortcut to/from Hilo would be severed for a while, requiring the long drive around the south tip or around the northeast coast that we all had to do before Saddle Road was improved years ago.

If I were traveling to Waikoloa tomorrow, there's no way I would even contemplate a change. While it's correct the risk is non-zero, there's also always the risk a major earthquake somewhere in the Pacific rim could generate a tsunami on Hawaii with no warning. I would expect the risk of this eruption requiring an evacuation of Waikoloa to be in the same probability category as a major tsunami - not zero, but very, very, very low.

Waikoloa would have more to be concerned about if Hualalai were to erupt one day. I believe it is still considered active, even though it has not erupted in over 200 years.

I completely agree with your assessment.

Vog, however, very much can be an impactful concern for anyone with respiratory issues and young children.
The VOG Dashboard and this map are good tools to monitor that and better understand the risks:



Unfortunately, Kailua-Kona/Keauhou timeshares tend to be in the thick of it - with the Waikoloa ones less affected usually. Sometimes, due to prevailing winds, parts of Maui get hit worse. With the 2018 Kilauea eruption, even Waikiki got some bad vog days. For the coming weeks, Kauai will be the safest bet when it comes to avoiding vog.
 
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We bought the farm during the worst of the Kilauea eruption. Vog was considered "worst in my lifetime" by my older neighbors. It wasn't THAT bad. It was like being too close to a smoky barbecue occasionally.
 

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A news update this morning.

 

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Here's an interesting graphic from the USGS web site that shows where lava tends to flow from Mauna Loa.

The current eruptive fissure vents are located in the Northeast Rift Zone which is the sort of purplish area between the light blue-colored (1984) and light yellow-colored (1880) areas. As you can, see from the grayish historical flows, those flows tend to go downhill toward Hilo (blue area) at a slow pace. The main risk to Waikoloa would seem to be from any flows that propagate into the orange area, as they apparently did in 1859. So unless new eruption fissures develop in that area northwest of the summit, there would appear to be little to no lava risk to Waikoloa from the current eruption, unless something very significant and unexpected changes.

The red area is the one that is the most dangerous, as any lava that erupts in those areas can reach populated areas south of Kailua-Kona in just hours. At present though, there is no lava erupting in that Southwest Rift Zone, and the HVO doesn't expect it to happen, since the current activity is propagating to the northeast.

Vwatch map 2021 V8 blind_KM_edited_0.jpeg
 

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Here's an interesting graphic from the USGS web site that shows where lava tends to flow from Mauna Loa.

The current eruptive fissure vents are located in the Northeast Rift Zone which is the sort of purplish area between the light blue-colored (1984) and light yellow-colored (1880) areas. As you can, see from the grayish historical flows, those flows tend to go downhill toward Hilo (blue area) at a slow pace. The main risk to Waikoloa would seem to be from any flows that propagate into the orange area, as they apparently did in 1859. So unless new eruption fissures develop in that area northwest of the summit, there would appear to be little to no lava risk to Waikoloa from the current eruption, unless something very significant and unexpected changes.

The red area is the one that is the most dangerous, as any lava that erupts in those areas can reach populated areas south of Kailua-Kona in just hours. At present though, there is no lava erupting in that Southwest Rift Zone, and the HVO doesn't expect it to happen, since the current activity is propagating to the northeast.

View attachment 69263

Whereabouts is the NOAA Observatory road on this map? (Roughly speaking)

Dave
 

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Whereabouts is the NOAA Observatory road on this map? (Roughly speaking)

Dave

Here is a brand new map from HVO that shows the current flows. It's a different scale than the other map I posted, but it gives you a flavor for the flow progression and shows the Observatory road and a small piece of Saddle Road. If you compare the two maps, it would appear the current flows are flowing close to the dividing line between the orange and blue areas in the first map, maybe a bit to the east of the diving line in the western-most part of the blue area. I would conclude that Saddle Road is definitely at risk of being impacted if the event continues at the same rate for another day or two.

MicrosoftTeams-image (10)_0.png
 

DaveNV

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Thanks, Jim. That's ^^^ what I was wondering about. The video @slip posted said the flow was moving North, but was still in the 3rd Rift zone. Trying to figure out the orientation of things.

Hope everyone stays safe. A road can be repaired. People, not so much.

Dave
 

T_R_Oglodyte

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Nature's Fertilizer.
Not really. Volcanic ash has little plant nutrient value. There's no tilth, whatever minerals are present are well fixed in an insoluble mineral matrix, and ash has almost no nitrogen. Over time, as the ash weathers and organics build up in the soil it might be come fertile, largely due to it has a nice balance of moisture drainage and retention characterists. .

With soils that are almost entirely mineral, usually the first step in the breakdown process is for mosses and lichens to establish themselves first, because they don't need external nutrients. Their roots generate acids that begin the process of breaking down the rock - just as they do on rocks, concrete, and roofing shingles around a house.

And if the ash consolidates into tuff, it will be a nearly impervious rock layer.

In areas that have had significant ash fall, ten years later there isn't much growing on the ash.

After Mt. St. Helens erupted, there was an interesting study done. In portions of the Cascade forests downwind, the there is a checkerboard mix of lands owned by private timber companies and land that was part of the National Forest. After the blast, the timber companies conducted salvage operations, removing as much timber as they could before it rotted. In the process the harvesting activities disrupted the ash deposits on those lands. Meanwhile, the government owned parcels were left fallow. About ten years after the eruption, there was much more recovery of plant life in the harvested parcels than in the fallow lands.

Similarly, after the Mt. St. Helens eruption, a lot of ash was dredged from the Toutle and Cowlitz Rivers on the west side of Mt. St. Helens. Much of the spoil was was placed in piles and mounds along the shoreline. Where I-5 parallels the Toutle River, the mounds were about 30 feet high and hundreds of yards long. When I moved to Washington in 1993, those mounds were largely barren - that was thirteen years after the eruption. It wasn't until about 2000 that some hardy grasses and shrubs were able to take root. Below is a picture of one of those dredge piles from Street View, Sep 2019. Not exactly verdant.

1669771502107.png
 
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Here is a brand new map from HVO that shows the current flows. It's a different scale than the other map I posted, but it gives you a flavor for the flow progression and shows the Observatory road and a small piece of Saddle Road. If you compare the two maps, it would appear the current flows are flowing close to the dividing line between the orange and blue areas in the first map, maybe a bit to the east of the diving line in the western-most part of the blue area. I would conclude that Saddle Road is definitely at risk of being impacted if the event continues at the same rate for another day or two.

View attachment 69270
A few more details addressing @JIMinNC
Mauna Loa's Northeast Rift Zone eruption has continued into its second full day. At this time, two fissures are active. The longest and largest lava flow comes from fissure 3. This lava flow crossed the Mauna Loa Weather Observatory Road at approximately 8 p.m. yesterday (November 28). As shown on this map, the flow front is about 5.5 miles from Saddle Road.

Overnight satellite views allowed USGS analysts to accurately map some of the most active flows, displayed in red. Dashed lines and points mark the further downslope progression of the flows.
 

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slip

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How is this for opposites.

Screenshot_20221129-193213_Facebook.jpg
 

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Thank you all for the updates and links. I’m passing them on to DD, who is booked to spend time in Kona and in Hilo the week after New Year’s, and to my dad, who loves the BI!
 

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it's so funny - I almost expected Mauna Loa's eruption to look different from Kilauea's. As if the magma/lava is somehow different. Silly me. :doh:

:D Dave

The continental shelves move over a single weak spot in the Earth's Crust. That's why the Hawaiian archipelago stretches like a string of pearls over the Pacific. The newest island (Kamaehuakanalo) is already being formed Southeast of Big Island. That'll be a mouthful in a quarter million years when timeshares are being built there.
 

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The continental shelves move over a single weak spot in the Earth's Crust. That's why the Hawaiian archipelago stretches like a string of pearls over the Pacific. The newest island (Kamaehuakanalo) is already being formed Southeast of Big Island. That'll be a mouthful in a quarter million years when timeshares are being built there.

I thought it was Loihi.

EDIT: Googled it, and see they renamed it.

Dave
 
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