Relative price.
I will use one example from where I used to own -- a Waiohai OV 2bd in summer.
Cost for resale week: ~$15,000 purchase + ~$2,800 MF's.
Cost for resale points (5075 points): ~$35,000 + $3,900 MF's (@ $7/pp purchase and $0.77/pp MF)
Is this 2024 MF at Waiohai? I did not think resorts have posted 2024 MF's yet. You are therefore comparing 2023 Waiohai with 2023 Trust Point MF. If, as predicted MF goes up an average 15% across the board it would mean Waiohai 2024 MFwould be about $3220. Now I wholeheartedly agree if you want to just go to Waiohai each year it would make way more sense to own there as you do but if you want to exchange you would have to put an extra $99 II yearly membership fee and $200 exchange onto that MF. I don't know if you can split your week at Waiohai which could give you better value but consider that lesser demand areas require less Trust Points and things may not be as clear cut.
I do however have no counter argument for the difference in initial outlay.
Points systems work well when you want to have odd days here and there and if you can use the Sunday to Thursday discounted nightly rates, they can give good value. It all depends on your pattern of usage, whether you want/need/like to plan well ahead and where you want to go.
I use II to exchange and get excellent value from my ownership whether you measure it in terms of what it would cost in $ or MVC points to pay for, examples below, all MVC weeks:
Low season would elect for 1875 club points, used to book week that would cost 4125 club points via Abound
Mid season would elect for 1675 club points, used to book week that would cost 3950 club points and Hyatt week that has maint fees of $3000/wk
Mid season would elect for 2375 club points, used to book week that would cost 3950 club points
As I have enrolled ownership I can look look inventory in II to see how many club points it would take to reserve and compare that with what my weeks can see. My weeks see inventory of at least 3000 club points. Club points can't be used in II to exchange into any MVC, Sheraton and Westin resorts, but can be used for all the others including DVC, Four Seasons and Hyatt.
I really do like the theory of the points system, but just can't get close to the value that I get with using II.
It has to be said that you are quoting point outlays for the highest demand weeks like 4th of July etc. and that, in general and on average, point outlay is about 5-7% more than what you would receive if you elect points. Again, it makes more sense to buy a high season week somewhere if those are the only times you want to travel and make trading a bit easier. You can even gain by locking of but then you will pay extra for the 'uptrade' fees. If you just compare getting a 2 bedroom for a 2 bedroom then if one is not to bothered to go during the highest demand times the difference may be much of a muchness.
If comparing buying mainland traders the initial outlay will again be much more for Trust Points.
If one disregards the initial outlay or just consider it the cost of the convenience, Trust Points may not be a bad value proposition if you are flexible and want to travel during off peak times. Consider trading that one week Waiohai or Platinum week to go to Harbour Point in HHI during the lowest season then you could essentially stay for 12 weeks with Trust Points instead of trading your Waiohai week for two weeks or your one Platinum week for 2 weeks that in the example would get 10 weeks. I know this is the extreme case scenario.
If you consider going Sunday check in and Friday check out you can get more value that way too.
One could also save on airfare by being able to check in and out on days of the week rather than weekend days.
At first it seems a no brainer to buy resale weeks and I do agree when considering initial outlay it makes the most sense, but if you have the ownership for a long time the flexibility and usage options may equal things out more. If you just want to go during non high demand times it may not be as clear cut and even having to save points and using two years worth to go to a high demand area during high season may be worth it.
I believe in weeks because they are in the trust and give me the highest flexibility per cost due to being able to use them for both trading and electing points. If I had to start with resale I would probably consider owning both.