I've been keeping an eye on rates also. For those of you refinancing at rates below 5% now, how many points are you paying?
I've seen some low rates advertised out there, but they all seem to include 1 - 1.5 points.
The Fed has stated that they are trying to bring mortgage rates down to 4.5%. Expecting anything much lower than that is probably unrealistic.
The spread between the 10 year treasury note and mortgage rates is still very high. Hopefully, the spread will narrow a bit, and one way they can narrow that spread is by eliminating or reducing the points charge. Of course the other way is if the yields on the 10 year treasury go up, or maybe some combination of both.
Personally, I'm in an interesting position now. My IO ARM will make it's first adjustment in May 2009, and the current rate is 4.5%. If it adjusted today, the adjustment would be down. Still, when I can find a rate of around 4.5% with low or no points, I will refi. The index is 1 Year LIBOR. The margin is 2.25%.
BTW, these rates are for conforming mortgages for people with excellent credit and at least 20% equity at current valuations. The spread for jumbo mortgages is ridiculous right now. If you also have a HELOC, that will affect the amount of equity you need to get these rates.
-David