• The TUGBBS forums are completely free and open to the public and exist as the absolute best place for owners to get help and advice about their timeshares for more than 30 years!

    Join Tens of Thousands of other Owners just like you here to get any and all Timeshare questions answered 24 hours a day!
  • TUG started 31 years ago in October 1993 as a group of regular Timeshare owners just like you!

    Read about our 31st anniversary: Happy 31st Birthday TUG!
  • TUG has a YouTube Channel to produce weekly short informative videos on popular Timeshare topics!

    Free memberships for every 50 subscribers!

    Visit TUG on Youtube!
  • TUG has now saved timeshare owners more than $23,000,000 dollars just by finding us in time to rescind a new Timeshare purchase! A truly incredible milestone!

    Read more here: TUG saves owners more than $23 Million dollars
  • Wish you could meet up with other TUG members? Well look no further as this annual event has been going on for years in Orlando! How to Attend the TUG January Get-Together!
  • Sign up to get the TUG Newsletter for free!

    Tens of thousands of subscribing owners! A weekly recap of the best Timeshare resort reviews and the most popular topics discussed by owners!
  • Our official "end my sales presentation early" T-shirts are available again! Also come with the option for a free membership extension with purchase to offset the cost!

    All T-shirt options here!
  • A few of the most common links here on the forums for newbies and guests!

Let's have a guess EVERY day: What will the Stock market do TOMORROW?

Status
Not open for further replies.

billymach4

TUG Member
Joined
Oct 20, 2006
Messages
4,208
Reaction score
1,725
Location
Everywhere
Anyone who has been on the sidelines waiting for a dip....... Go on a shopping spree now.
 

Miss Marty

TUG Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
4,031
Reaction score
349
Mar 9, 2020 Dow plunges over 2,000 points,
oil collapses amid price war and coronavirus


Dow Jones Industrial Average
INDEXDJX: .DJI
23,851.02 −2,013.76 (7.79%)

The drop is now the worst one-day point decline ever for the Dow.

https:// www. foxbusiness .com/
markets/us-markets-march-9-2020
 

HitchHiker71

Moderator
Joined
Jun 29, 2018
Messages
4,869
Reaction score
4,229
Location
The First State
Resorts Owned
Outer Banks Beach Club I (PIC Plus)
Colonies at Williamsburg (PIC Plus)
CWA VIP Gold (718k EY)
National Harbor Resale (689k)
Markets are a confidence game and a reflection of our collective judgment of present and future value. PE ratios are near all time highs. Everything in life returns to the mean. The secular bull market is probably coming to an end.

Given the lack of certainty on a global level due to coronavirus, volatility will be the norm for a while. The current supply side shocks will eventually lead to demand side shocks later down the line which is at least in part why the fed cut rates last week and will probably do so again. Given 70% of our GDP is consumer confidence/spending driven - I’m not optimistic for the US markets nor US GDP rates for H1 2020.

Italy was already facing recession and will almost certainly dip into recession significantly given the huge impact on their country. Germany - the powerhouse in the EU - saw zero growth last report - so Germany will see negative GDP and this may very well drag the EU into recession soon.

China will see bad GDP numbers for Q1 2020 to say the least. Keep a close eye on the Q1 2020 advance GDP estimates globally in late April - those will help tell the tale on just how much negative impact coronavirus has had globally.

I watch the market futures like a hawk so I cannot play the game here. But I would expect volatility to continue until the world has a better handle on the coronavirus pandemic. Hopefully it burns itself out much like SARS did but that remains to be seen.

Hang onto your hats folks - it’s going to be a bumpy ride for the foreseeable future.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

HitchHiker71

Moderator
Joined
Jun 29, 2018
Messages
4,869
Reaction score
4,229
Location
The First State
Resorts Owned
Outer Banks Beach Club I (PIC Plus)
Colonies at Williamsburg (PIC Plus)
CWA VIP Gold (718k EY)
National Harbor Resale (689k)
Mar 9, 2020 Dow plunges over 2,000 points,
oil collapses amid price war and coronavirus


Dow Jones Industrial Average
INDEXDJX: .DJI
23,851.02 −2,013.76 (7.79%)

The drop is now the worst one-day point decline ever for the Dow.

https:// www. foxbusiness .com/
markets/us-markets-march-9-2020

The high on the DOW was roughly 29500. We are already solidly in correction territory. Bear market is 20% down or 23600. We closed at 23850 today - not far away. Boundaries like this matter in the markets. We could easily see a bear market this week IMHO.

If the globe dips into recession over the next couple of months, given how long it’s been since we have had a cyclical recession, it’s likely we will see a more severe market drop peak to bottom. Buffett stated we could easily see 50% drop - or DOW 15000 basically. Hedge your portfolios accordingly especially if you are at or near retirement.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Panina

TUG Review Crew: Elite
TUG Member
Joined
Jul 13, 2015
Messages
6,928
Reaction score
10,281
Location
Florida
Resorts Owned
Hgvc Anderson, Blue Ride Village Resort
It will keep going down for awhile.

Normal reaction, nothing that shouldn’t have been expected with the virus widespread. It will affect most sectors of businesses. Some will not be able to survive with their losses unless the government steps in with assistance.

This too all will pass and when it does it will take some time to recoup but I think sooner then later. Ultimately I see a business boom in the US to produce products made elsewhere so we don’t have the reliance on China for essentials such as medications.
 

tompalm

TUG Member
Joined
Apr 3, 2006
Messages
2,073
Reaction score
347
Location
Honolulu, Hawaii
You can look at CNBC.com or use the ap and tell what the market is doing tomorrow. The later it gets, the more accurate it becomes. But that is just for the open of the market. The real question is where will the market be in three months or six months. Nobody knows.

Bonds have had a great run. I agree, time to take some profits. Time to buy stock.....Only if you like to trade a lot. I don’t think a bottom will come for another month. But tomorrow on March 10th we should get a bounce, but maybe not. Who knows.
 
Last edited:

Brett

Guest
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
10,026
Reaction score
5,525
Location
Coastal Virginia
It will keep going down for awhile.

Normal reaction, nothing that shouldn’t have been expected with the virus widespread. It will affect most sectors of businesses. Some will not be able to survive with their losses unless the government steps in with assistance.

This too all will pass and when it does it will take some time to recoup but I think sooner then later. Ultimately I see a business boom in the US to produce products made elsewhere so we don’t have the reliance on China for essentials such as medications.

That would be good but unfortunately that's not going to happen anytime soon. The reason drugs are manufactured in India and China is because of low labor costs and the lack of government regulatory oversight in those countries.
https://www.amazon.com/Bottle-Lies-Inside-Story-Generic/dp/0062338781
 

geekette

Guest
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
10,806
Reaction score
5,618
....Time to buy stock.....Only if you like to trade a lot.

Disagree. Buy stock if you are a long term holder.
 

Brett

Guest
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
10,026
Reaction score
5,525
Location
Coastal Virginia
You can look at CNBC.com or use the ap and tell what the market is doing tomorrow. The later it gets, the more accurate it becomes. But that is just for the open of the market. The real question is where will the market be in three months or six months. Nobody knows.

Bonds have had a great run. I agree, time to take some profits. Time to buy stock.....Only if you like to trade a lot. I don’t think a bottom will come for another month. But tomorrow on March 10th we should get a bounce and that could last a few days, but maybe not. Who knows.

I agree with Geekette, stocks are for the long term
 

AJCts411

TUG Member
Joined
Apr 4, 2017
Messages
1,020
Reaction score
939
Resorts Owned
Hyatt Sunset x 2
My gamble...a small wager in the form of 5K...I'm betting a decent recovery in 10 to 12 months. It was cash savings (RRSP)...made a whole $2.46 in 18 months
 

easyrider

TUG Review Crew: Elite
TUG Member
Joined
Aug 21, 2005
Messages
16,820
Reaction score
9,469
Location
Palm Springs of Washinton
Resorts Owned
Worldmark * * Villa Del Palmar UVCI * * Vacation Internationale*
Very recently, covid-19 infected people were trading at the NYSE. Who knows how many people were / are infected. So Barclays is doing self quarantine. I wonder if it would mater as most everything is done on cpu.

utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_KITV4


Bill
 

easyrider

TUG Review Crew: Elite
TUG Member
Joined
Aug 21, 2005
Messages
16,820
Reaction score
9,469
Location
Palm Springs of Washinton
Resorts Owned
Worldmark * * Villa Del Palmar UVCI * * Vacation Internationale*
Probably shouldn't, but I'm thinking about buying Exon this week. Looking at Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines. geezy peezy, how much lower can these go ?

Bill
 

#1 Cowboys Fan

TUG Review Crew: Expert
TUG Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
2,234
Reaction score
747
Probably shouldn't, but I'm thinking about buying Exon this week. Looking at Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines. geezy peezy, how much lower can these go ?

Bill
But WHEN will Cruise Lines start 'UP' again?
 

HitchHiker71

Moderator
Joined
Jun 29, 2018
Messages
4,869
Reaction score
4,229
Location
The First State
Resorts Owned
Outer Banks Beach Club I (PIC Plus)
Colonies at Williamsburg (PIC Plus)
CWA VIP Gold (718k EY)
National Harbor Resale (689k)
Probably shouldn't, but I'm thinking about buying Exon this week. Looking at Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines. geezy peezy, how much lower can these go ?

Bill

Buffet is saying 50% drop from market high, as are a growing number of others. We hit 20% bear market today. Still have a ways to go. DOW 14500 would be 50%. Hopefully it doesn’t fall that much - but I’m staying on the sidelines for the time being.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

CO skier

TUG Member
Joined
Sep 18, 2012
Messages
4,422
Reaction score
2,589
Location
Colorado
Probably shouldn't, but I'm thinking about buying Exon this week. Looking at Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines. geezy peezy, how much lower can these go ?

Bill
I remember hearing this kind of thinking when Boeing went over a cliff after the 737 max grounding, and every time it went under $350 over the last year.

Boeing stock is now trading under $200/share -- with no sign of a bottom.

There is a wise saying in the investment community, "Do not try to catch a falling knife."
 

CO skier

TUG Member
Joined
Sep 18, 2012
Messages
4,422
Reaction score
2,589
Location
Colorado
But WHEN will Cruise Lines start 'UP' again?
Not for a couple of years, at least. There will be plenty of time to watch cruise line stocks to form a bottom (at lower levels from here) and buy-in then. Look at what happened with airline stocks after 9/11. Corona virus is obviously the cruise lines' 9/11 event.
 

Brett

Guest
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
10,026
Reaction score
5,525
Location
Coastal Virginia
Buffet is saying 50% drop from market high, as are a growing number of others. We hit 20% bear market today. Still have a ways to go. DOW 14500 would be 50%. Hopefully it doesn’t fall that much - but I’m staying on the sidelines for the time being.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


a 50% drop in the stock market would be bad :(
 

Fredflintstone

TUG Member
Joined
Jul 15, 2018
Messages
1,944
Reaction score
2,553
Resorts Owned
Rent only
a 50% drop in the stock market would be bad :(

I can’t see that much of a drop because this isn’t a financial crisis. It’s a virus issue. We don’t have financial fraud, businesses collapsing, people thrown out of work in the millions, everyone losing their homes. It’s overdone. I will just keep buying with excess cash.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 

Panina

TUG Review Crew: Elite
TUG Member
Joined
Jul 13, 2015
Messages
6,928
Reaction score
10,281
Location
Florida
Resorts Owned
Hgvc Anderson, Blue Ride Village Resort
I can’t see that much of a drop because this isn’t a financial crisis. It’s a virus issue. We don’t have financial fraud, businesses collapsing, people thrown out of work in the millions, everyone losing their homes. It’s overdone. I will just keep buying with excess cash.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Unfortunately Fear and Panic can make it go that low. When it passes imo will recover pretty quickly as everyone will want to get out buy and do things.
 

Fredflintstone

TUG Member
Joined
Jul 15, 2018
Messages
1,944
Reaction score
2,553
Resorts Owned
Rent only
Unfortunately Fear and Panic can make it go that low. When it passes imo will recover pretty quickly as everyone will want to get out buy and do things.

I agree. It’s irrational. The sad part of this is the widespread panic could trigger serious financial crisis because people are on lock down and not operating.

Look. If this was something where millions were dying in a matter of weeks, I would think differently.

Yes, people are dying. It’s a bad virus. We will run into medical challenges like HIV, Ebola, the plague, etc. However, let’s take this one in perspective.

I at least think, unlike 2008/2009, where it was financial, that this will make those who buckle up have considerable net worth because they capitalized on the panic.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 

Icc5

TUG Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
1,961
Reaction score
593
Location
Los Altos, California (Northern Ca.)
On paper I'm down $230,000 from my highest amount in my regular stock portfolio. Luckily for me most are dividend payers and haven't had any stop yet. I haven't even looked at our 401k's or our Roth IRA'S. Best move I did starting in December of last year was put an inheritance I received into tax free bonds. It is rare for me to sell anything off and I don't intend to now. My kids will eventually receive an inheritance from us and a large part will be the stock portfolio they sell then. Most of my portfolio was bought very low so instead of selling and losing so much in gains now the kids will get it all in the future. In the meantime we will continue to get the dididends from stock, the interest from bonds, our pensions and my social security. Letting my 401k ride until I have to start pulling funds out in another 3 years and then my wife will have to start in 7 years. Right before that she will start drawing from social security.
Bart
 

Talent312

TUG Review Crew: Veteran
TUG Member
Joined
Jul 4, 2007
Messages
17,875
Reaction score
7,739
Resorts Owned
HGVC & GTS
I'm just going to eat some Tums and put my head back in the sand.
,
 

Rolltydr

TUG Member
Joined
Jul 30, 2019
Messages
4,772
Reaction score
7,430
Location
St. Augustine
Resorts Owned
CWA, Ocean Blvd, Fairfield Glade
I can’t see that much of a drop because this isn’t a financial crisis. It’s a virus issue. We don’t have financial fraud, businesses collapsing, people thrown out of work in the millions, everyone losing their homes. It’s overdone. I will just keep buying with excess cash.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Fred, you’re a smart guy and I really enjoy reading your posts. Man, I hope you’re right. But, since you’re Canadian, I’m not sure you can appreciate what we’re up against. The virus is not our biggest problem!


Harry
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top