Less timeshare for sale then I expected

[timeshare trader]

Maybe it is just me but, it seems there are less quality timeshares for sale at non branded resorts than in previous years. Are there more resorts doing take backs or what is causing this or are you seeing the market differently?

 

[CO skier]

Maybe it is just me but, it seems there are less quality timeshares for sale at non branded resorts than in previous years. Are there more resorts doing take backs or what is causing this or are you seeing the market differently?

There are fewer timeshares for sale in the summer, when owners are using their timeshares than in October, when owners want to avoid paying the maintenance fee bills that will come due in January.

In other words, what you are seeing is an annual, seasonal phenomenon.

 

[rjwehr]

Not necessarily related to the original question, but I think it would be interesting if there were a daily or weekly barometer of the timeshare resale market using the number of timeshares listed on ebay. Call it the TUG TIMESHARE INDEX or something like that. (It would probably make for good publicity for TUG as well) Back in 2008 when the economy tanked, there were around 3500 timeshares listed on ebay. I noticed there are only 243 on ebay today.

Anyone have too much time on their hands and want to track this?

 

[TUGBrian]

are 1381 current resale ads on TUG right now. prior to covid, this was always around 2000 or so.

as mentioned above, q4/q1 are always usually much higher for ad count purposes as MF bills come due.

 

[TheTimeTraveler]

The soaring costs of residential real estate may suddenly cause Timeshares to appear as a relative bargain and current owners may decide to hold on and not sell their ownerships. In fact some Timeshares in desirable oceanfront locations and winter ski resorts may become difficult to procure at pre Covid pricing.....

It will be interesting to see what happens during Q4 and Q1.


.

 

[rudyr]

I think TS values in resale will creep up marginally, at least over the next 2 years or so.

1. Domestic travel is going to he HUGE vs. international at least through 2022. Vaccination requirements & covid testing to/from foreign destinations makes it less appealing.
2. 2020-2021 people threw crazy money at luxury Sprinter vans / RVs to drive around the country; those things easily cost $100k-200k depending on models and configuration. So, the demand and the money behind domestic travel where you "take your home with you" is there.
3. Hotel rates and more importantly, Airbnb prices are up. The days of getting a "cheap airbnb" are gone. You want something with kitchens and multiple bedrooms somewhere nice, you're going to pay.

For us, 2 bedrooms & a kitchen is the only way we'll travel for week stays. Doing the math, we pay ~$1600 all in per week at Desert Springs and Shadow Ridge when we take into account MFs, Interval, and the exchange fee. When I price out the places/weeks we stay at, most are advertised for rental between $3-4k. So, we feel we're getting a solid 2x in value and the cost isn't rising at the same level of inflation. In a sense, our TSs are a vacation/recreation hedge.

Marriott is also offering good deals via StKitts & Aruba to get external weeks enrolled. That got us to purchase a "real" / direct week for the first time. Zero regrets as the math in terms of how we feel we can leverage both Interval and the Marriott points system will likely keep our costs at the level we're comfortable long term.

 

[The Colorado Kid]

I think TS values in resale will creep up marginally, at least over the next 2 years or so.

1. Domestic travel is going to he HUGE vs. international at least through 2022. Vaccination requirements & covid testing to/from foreign destinations makes it less appealing.
2. 2020-2021 people threw crazy money at luxury Sprinter vans / RVs to drive around the country; those things easily cost $100k-200k depending on models and configuration. So, the demand and the money behind domestic travel where you "take your home with you" is there.
3. Hotel rates and more importantly, Airbnb prices are up. The days of getting a "cheap airbnb" are gone. You want something with kitchens and multiple bedrooms somewhere nice, you're going to pay.

For us, 2 bedrooms & a kitchen is the only way we'll travel for week stays. Doing the math, we pay ~$1600 all in per week at Desert Springs and Shadow Ridge when we take into account MFs, Interval, and the exchange fee. When I price out the places/weeks we stay at, most are advertised for rental between $3-4k. So, we feel we're getting a solid 2x in value and the cost isn't rising at the same level of inflation. In a sense, our TSs are a vacation/recreation hedge.

Marriott is also offering good deals via StKitts & Aruba to get external weeks enrolled. That got us to purchase a "real" / direct week for the first time. Zero regrets as the math in terms of how we feel we can leverage both Interval and the Marriott points system will likely keep our costs at the level we're comfortable long term.

@rudyr - Excellent points! Your math is spot on. We also have a minimum 2BR/2BA/Full kitchen groove going with occasional gusts up to 3BR. I would add to that now that my bride is more educated in the benefits of Interval, she is really an II Elite gal which would be completely unattainable for us outside of a TS program. I so enjoy watching her face light up each time we have that expectant villa door-opening moment at our first time at a new resort. This summer we are treating two sets of couple friends to a stay with us at the Westin in the Vail Valley in Colorado which as well would be unimaginable previous to our purchasing TS weeks. Already planning Maui for next summer treating the outlaws to the nicest resort they will ever have stayed. Yes I guess I would freely admit to being a TS Fanboy but for us it is a completely legit comparison because we have our vacation activity prior to and after using TS.

 

[daverunfast]

I've bought several independent timeshares recently for the access and as an investment. Rental rates are high, resort occupancy is up, and the real estate market is out of control. Owning a piece, even a tiny fraction of a beach front or ski town is appealing. Short term rental returns set real estate prices in those kinds of markets. IMO, timeshare values have been driven down buy predatory sales and the trap/liability timeshares can become. Renting is becoming easier to do and HOAs can help you make it even easier, independent timeshares really can be an asset if the owners are in control. Perhaps people are starting to see that.

 

[The Colorado Kid]

I've purchased several resale weeks from eBay over the past year...6-12 months ago there were typically 450 active timeshare resale listings on eBay at all times...last 2 months this has dropped off to the 260 range so quite a drop off.

 

[TUGBrian]

id imagine the industry would argue the "success" of deedback/surrender programs has made a dent in resale listings as well...

probably be able to easily prove or disprove if they released how many owners successfully used deedbacks compared to 2020/2019 etc.

 

[dioxide45]

I know we have seen considerably fewer Mandatory Sheraton Vistana Villages weeks after Vistana was doing their "trade in" program a few years go. I suspected they "upgraded" quite a few people and convinced them to give up their mandatory weeks in exchange for Sheraton Flex.

 

[bogey21]

Independent timeshares really can be an asset if the owners are in control. Perhaps people are starting to see that.

After owning at many Resorts during my 20+ years of TS Ownership I went to all HOA Controlled Independent Fixed Week/Fixed Units. I found the main benefits to be price, lower MFs, location and simplicity of use. The main negative was lesser quality as mine were all older. Surprisingly another benefit was flexibility. In most cases I found it easy to call the Property Manager and get him/her to switch my Week at no cost to me...

George

 

[DannyTS]

Pre-pandemic there were 700-950 timeshare listings on Ebay at any given time. Now there are around 250 listings and this cannot be explained by seasonality. It seems that there are several factors at play:
- the economic problems of the pandemic did not hit hard the timeshare owners, usually more affluent than the average.
- the exit companies have been hit hard not only by the lawsuits but also because they could not organize some of the events to meet their potential buyers. I am sure they suffered big financial losses last year
- many developers do have deed back programs now. Aside from TUG, there are many FB groups where owners can learn they should not resort to the exit companies and that there are better options.
- the real estate prices have gone up significantly. To the extend that the timeshares are real estate, they may have become more valuable. Every time I look at the hotel price inflation (will it last?) , I am happy to "own".
- people cannot wait to return to their pre-pandemic habits and traveling is at the very top of the wish list

 

[The Colorado Kid]

I know we have seen considerably fewer Mandatory Sheraton Vistana Villages weeks after Vistana was doing their "trade in" program a few years go. I suspected they "upgraded" quite a few people and convinced them to give up their mandatory weeks in exchange for Sheraton Flex.

Still l seeing a fair amount of HarbourSide resale listings...maybe due to the higher MFs?

 

[CPNY]

Still l seeing a fair amount of HarbourSide resale listings...maybe due to the higher MFs?

That’s exactly what it’s due to. Next highest MF would be WSJ and there are no where near the amount of listings as HRA.

 

[The Colorado Kid]

That’s exactly what it’s due to. Next highest MF would be WSJ and there are no where near the amount of listings as HRA.

If you are using HRA the higher MF could be worth it as I believe it includes several water park passes?

 

[CPNY]

If you are using HRA the higher MF could be worth it as I believe it includes several water park passes?

Wrist bands to the grounds at Atlantis are included in any room. I’ve seen many rentals on redweek for less than maint fee. Owning there isn’t worth it.

 

[TUGBrian]

harborside does not qualify for the deedback program still....only US based ones do.

 

[BreakingAway]

id imagine the industry would argue the "success" of deedback/surrender programs has made a dent in resale listings as well...

probably be able to easily prove or disprove if they released how many owners successfully used deedbacks compared to 2020/2019 etc.

I expect many timeshare developers have gained some valuable timeshare weeks that would have appeared in the resale market. Speaking for myself, I sold a week at the beginning of the pandemic for much less than comparable prices but twice what the developer offered. We will not sell the four timeshare weeks we still have. The resale purchase price we paid and maintenance fees are a real bargain compared to the pre and certainly post pandemic alternatives. I think resale timeshares are wise investment financially. That is the main reason we have not placed more of our weeks for sale.