All,
I guess I have two reasons for thinking that Marriott will one day offer an amnesty program and allow post-2010 weeks to be enrolled. I could be wrong, of course, but this is the thinking, such as it is.
I've always believed that Marriott views enrolled owners as prime targets to sell points too. After 10 years, there are alot of owners that own weeks that are not enrolled, and would have traditionally declined to purchase more points under the previous programs. However, if those owners are allowed to enroll for a reasonable cost and then some of them redeem their weeks for points, they will like the points experience but see that they need more points (and thus buy them). I think this is similar to the position of owners who enrolled in 2010 and then bought points in 2011-2013. I would think Marriott has analyzed this scenario to see if they could repeat it in the next couple of years with the current non-enrolled owners.
The second reason is that I believe a Vistana/Marriott points overlay is planned, and that Vistana owners will want to access certain Marriott Platinum and High Quality Gold weeks as their primary targets. Aruba, Big Island, Oahu, places that are currently not available within StarOptions. I think Marriott will want to increase the supply of those weeks in the Exchange Inventory and there is a fair amount of that inventory held by unenrolled owners. I'm not smart enough to know if the supply from Vistana weeks being available to the Exchange Inventory will compensate on the increased pressure for the best Marriott weeks, so I think expanding that supply of weeks would be logical for Marriott to do. No doubt Marriott owners want to go to Harborside, Mexico and St. John, I just don't know if this will create an imbalance, or deterioration in the reservations experience, which is currently very good. But allowing non-enrolled owners to enroll for a fee would increase the Exchange Inventory, which is healthy for all parties.
If there is an amnesty program, I don't think it will be cheap, but I also don't think it will be prohibitively expensive. It was $2K in 2010 to enroll multiple weeks (but they really needed our inventory back then to make the system work). Going forward, I could see something like $2K for a single week and $5K to enroll everything -- something like that. Who knows? The $2K single week is probably the best teaser because the points from a single week aren't enough to effectively use the system -- that person probably needs to buy more points in the next few years once they've played with points. We had multiple skeptics on the point system in 2010 who then found that changing circumstances in future years made them avid points fans.
We will see -- I've always thought the 10 year anniversary was a logical time, however the rollout of the Vistana/Marriott points overlay is the other logical time. Interesting stuff.....stay safe and be well!
Best,
Greg