My daughter lives in Truckee and the smoke is pretty bad, although she said that it was better yesterday. It depends on the winds and in which direction they are moving plus the size of the fire.
For reference, we were in South Lake Tahoe for a week last September. We had good days where it was clear enough to hike, and we had days where you really couldn't see the lake. We contemplated driving somewhere, anywhere without smoke and our best option at the time (Lassen National Park) was a three hour drive. The next day we woke up to clear skies, so you just can't predict the smoke. One other data point, like you I was watching the weather (we were driving) and a few days before our week started the fire that had been raging had gotten under control, smoke was clearing, and so we left for our 10 hour drive early in the morning, a Sunday I think. By the time we got to the Topaz Lake area we could see smoke. It turned out that lightning had started a fire the night before and that was the fire/smoke that we had to contend with all week. There is simply no way of predicting the fire behavior. I think that for decision making, the only thing that you can consider is *your* response - will it ruin your trip or will you have a good time no matter what? Is this a trip where you want to be outside for the whole trip or will you happily spend some time inside? Does anyone in your group have respiratory issues?
That said we still had a good time, but not as good as it would have been without the smoke but we were really there to spend time with our kids. My husband rolls with the punches better that I do (because I am all about my photos) and he was bothered a lot less than I was.
On the road between Sand Harbor & Incline on a Monday (2020 trip)
Sand Harbor on Tuesday, next day (2020 trip)
