Japanese tourist who stayed at HGVC on Oahu tests positive for corona virus

[DavidnRobin]

For argument sake:
Assume...
5 billion people on earth
50% get Corona virus (based on estimations in posts above).
~3% mortality rate

That’s 75 million people that will die from C.Virus

SARS had a 10% mortality rate!
How many people died from SARS?
Not even close to 75 million.

Why?
Because flu viruses tend to be self-limiting as they go through a population.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[jabberwocky]

We have a couple in Ontario that have recovered and still test positive for the virus. They were released from hospital two weeks ago but are still in home quarantine. Nobody knows what that means. Are they still contagious?

Ontario couple have recovered but are still testing positive for coronavirus

Nose and throat swabs taken since the man was released from Sunnybrook hospital two weeks ago continue to show traces of coronavirus in both him and his wife, who was never hospitalized.

www.thestar.com

Until they have been cleared with negative tests for the virus the assumption will be that they are not recovered and potentially still contagious, although presenting asymptotically makes it harder to pass the virus on (you'd have to be exterem

For argument sake:
Assume...
5 billion people on earth
50% get Corona virus (based on estimations in posts above).
~3% mortality rate

That’s 75 million people that will die from C.Virus

SARS had a 10% mortality rate!
How many people died from SARS?
Not even close to 75 million.

Why?
Because flu viruses tend to be self-limiting as they go through a population.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This is true, as people recover they develop immunity. The other thing to remember is the reproduction rate (or how much easier it is to spread). Here's an interesting view from McKinsey on the fatality ratio (how likely it is to kill) vs. how quickly is spreads. Measles is definitely worse, but vaccinations against it keep it manageable.

 

[1Kflyerguy]

I thought I saw on the news that they've developed a vaccination.

I have heard some reports about that as well. I am not entirely sure it true. However even if true, it would take a very long time to be approved, and then produced in volume. There are routine shortages of established vaccines.

 

[happymum]

Apparently on Maui they were staying at Ka’anapali Beach Club ( a Diamond resort) during a time when presumably he would have been contagious.

 

[brp]

The death rate from the Corona Virus seems to be hovering around 3%.

This isn't quite true. Roughly 2-3% of the people who have tested positive for corona virus die. However, the majority of the people who have the disease do not have a reported outcome, so they can't be counted as not having died. More accurate would be to report the percentage of people with a reported outcome (death or recovery) have died. That is quite a bit higher than 3%. I don't know the current numbers, but this is certainly north of 10%. Whatever this percentage (10%, 20%, whatever), we can expect that that percentage of those with unreported results will die. Of course this is still oversimplified, but it is clear that the actual fatality ratio as a percentage of cases with a conclusion is quite about the quoted 2-3% figure.

Cheers.

 

[brp]

I have heard some reports about that as well. I am not entirely sure it true. However even if true, it would take a very long time to be approved, and then produced in volume. There are routine shortages of established vaccines.

I imagine that there will be shortcuts taken on the approval and human test protocols in this case.

Cheers.

 

[Panina]

This isn't quite true. Roughly 2-3% of the people who have tested positive for corona virus die. However, the majority of the people who have the disease do not have a reported outcome, so they can't be counted as not having died. More accurate would be to report the percentage of people with a reported outcome (death or recovery) have died. That is quite a bit higher than 3%. I don't know the current numbers, but this is certainly north of 10%. Whatever this percentage (10%, 20%, whatever), we can expect that that percentage of those with unreported results will die. Of course this is still oversimplified, but it is clear that the actual fatality ratio as a percentage of cases with a conclusion is quite about the quoted 2-3% figure.

Cheers.

You can look at it on the flip side. There are those that get mild symptoms and are not included in total infected as they are not reported or tested so the percentage of deaths can be less.

 

[brp]

You can look at it on the flip side. There are those that get mild symptoms and are not included in total infected as they are not reported or tested so the percentage of deaths can be less.

That's a fair point as well. All the more reason why I said that my post was oversimplified. Still, I think that the percentage thus far is quite a bit higher than the posted numbers. Now, maybe the remaining cases are generally more mild and will result in lower fatality rates. We can all hope so.

Cheers.

 

[1Kflyerguy]

I imagine that there will be shortcuts taken on the approval and human test protocols in this case.

Cheers.

I agree and would expect them to try and move any vaccine as fast as possible, but it may still still take time to to produce in volume. The Shingrix vaccine has had shortages for the past few years. I think one for travel vaccines i needed for a Safari was also in short supply a few years ago.

 

[brp]

I agree and would expect them to try and move any vaccine as fast as possible, but it may still still take time to to produce in volume. The Shingrix vaccine has had shortages for the past few years. I think one for travel vaccines i needed for a Safari was also in short supply a few years ago.

Shortage, definitely. I'm just quite sure that they'll short-circuit the trials protocols. Then it all depends on the complexity of producing in volume.

Cheers.