My point is that the advice of this thread is to:
“My guess is that you pick them up for $.50 on the dollar or less. When Marriott starts exercising again, you will earn a superior return.”
Buying timeshares, especially when not even the developer is doing so, is incredibly irresponsible at this time in our history. Think about that for a second – Marriott doesn’t even want to flip timeshares and we are advised to do so?
Hold on to your money in these times and don’t go blowing it on things that are crashing like a lead balloon.
At some point the cycle will bottom out – how much damage will be inflicted upon your family is the key question here – do you really need another timeshare and the $1,000 per year MF to go with it? Really?
Timeshares are not sold as investments to flip – to find suggestions that this is perfectly ok to do so now is just dumb; and that’s me being polite.
P.S.
This entire scheme of flipping timeshares is predicated upon Marriott exercising the ROFR at 60% of current sales prices.
What happens if Marriott starts lowering the sales price to reflect real estate's lost value? What happens if Marriott decides that enough owners are dumping Marriotts and Marriott only has to offer 25% for the ROFR? That means more profit for Marriott.
Lots of assumptions here waiting to bite you in the ass....
P.P.S.
My
response to the ROFR and how it can bite you.
My role in timesharing is merely a science project that turned into a business that allowed me to spend full time on a hobby. In the case of Marriott's, I have no financial interest as others have pointed out. You can claim that I have an ulterior motive, but I think that most on this board believe my posts at face value and use the information to make their own decisions as they do yours.
My advice is much more sound than advice you've provided in the past. Let's review some of them.
1) buy pre-construction timeshares from developers to profit. While it's true that it is possible to make money on a timeshare from a developer, the expected return on invested capital is very low and not worth it. Investing in CDs has a better return with far lower risk. This IS one of your past recommendations and you cited your own purchases as proof that it was a good idea. Very Bad idea.
2) Ignore the capital for purchasing a timeshare since it is just a luxury purchase. By doing that, buying a timeshare for $1 is no different than buying it for $100,000. That makes no sense. Very bad idea.
3) Condo Hotels are the new business model for vacationing. Daytona Beach and Maui I think were the hot prospects. There is no housing bubble. These are great investments at this time. Only problem is that it was the height of the housing bubble which you denied by using zillow as your proof. Very bad recommendation.
4) Planet Hollywood as the number 1 timeshare in the world and buying a penthouse suite as a good investment. I think it was $10,000 per week or something like that you expected to get. This was an extraordinary bad idea. Even the sales guys in Las Vegas were posting congratulations to the sales guy who sold it to you. They couldn't believe you fell for it.
5) At the same time you were rightly predicting that WorldMark credits would drop in price, you kept advising that it was the best thing to buy and that you would add to your portfolio. You also were proud of TravelShare and recommended that WorldMark expand maintenance fees to become Marriott. WorldMark and Marriott are so vastly different that this is an extraordinarily weak idea.
6) You were promoting the wisdom of buying a small acount and renting credits when you never did it. In fact, what you did instead was buy a Trendwest Fractional with a high capital cost and an annual cost of ownership that is higher than you can rent credits. Very bad idea. Weren't you claiming that fractionals were the next big thing because it could be sold like real estate?
7) Buying an RCI Points account and depositing South African weeks into points for deposit for a total cost HIGHER than buying the airline tickets directly from the airlines. Why would anyone want to go through all that trouble for it to cost more? Very bad idea.
8) Jumping into Redweek with both feet before thinking about their business model. Then, having to spend 2 months slamming them for not meeting your expectations. You end up getting two halves of a unit at the Marriott Maui for President's week. Did Marriott ever remarry those units for you when you arrived even though they had different check in dates? I just took a Marriott Summit watch bronze week studio and used it to book week 52 at the Marriott Maui and it was already married. Recommending Redweek as the next revolution in exchange. Very bad idea.
9) Investing 99% of one's personal net worth into the Dow Jones industrial stock index because it has had a history around 14% annual returns. When you posted that I said you need to be careful because there can be decades where the Dow gains 0%. We entered into such a period within one year of your declaration. Extraordinarily bad idea.
10) Now you are saying that virtually all timeshares will be sold on eBay for $1. If that happens, the timeshare industry is dead and they won't even be selling at $1. That is a possible scenario. I'l grant you that. However, I believe that it is about as likely to happen as another great depression. Possible, but not probable. If the disaster scenario doesn't happen, odds are the the timeshare industry will resume in a couple years in a growth mode again after probably a 50% correction in annual sales.
I have already outlined my theory extensively for when and why it makes sense to purchase a Marriott Platinum week now. And, that since Marriott is NOT exercising ROFR that it is the best time ever to pick one up, especially if you will use it every year. I expressed an upside that is POSSIBLE and PROBABLE if you believe the market and economy will return. I also claim that if the disaster scenario occurs in the market, that all bets are off.
And, if you read the thread, you will see that there are a ton of posters on this message board who also believe that it is a good time to buy. Are the resellers, too? Or, could it be that someone with deep experience in the industry might just have some good helpful insights.
The idea of flipping is definitely a risky proposition. I'll definitely agree with that. But, if you have a destination that you like, that you can indeed get for really cheap and it is likely to be a good trader and/or renter in the future, then it is indeed a good time to purchase a Platinum Marriott week.
I've only pointed out the things you were wrong on. You were right on a number of other things.
They are:
1) Implosion of the ponzi scheme that is destination clubs.
2) dramatic decrease in the resale value of WorldMark credits
3) The bursting of the timeshare bubble
4) The idea of a timeshare portfolio
5) VRBO as a good rental option for vacationers
6) WorldMark as a great ownership and trader
As I review the above things you were right on vs. wrong, I can only conclude that what you do is run into a new concept you have never seen before, declare it as the next best thing and make a wild extrapolation on what things will be in the future that is wrong more times than not.
So, if we are going to make a determination of who is making responsible vs. irresponsible recommendations, I'd take my track record is far superior to yours.
Your up. I hope you have more facts that "you are a self interested reseller." People aren't buying it.