Israel Study "Controlled Avalanche Strategy" would reduce mortality by 43% over shelter in place strategy...never happen but interesting....

[capjak]

An Israel Study on how removing the shelter in place can save lives if done via their proposed "controlled avalanche" (CA). Unlikely but still interesting analysis by Eyal Klement Koret School of Veterinary Medicine, Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, the Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel and others.....
Here is a excerpt from the authors of the study:
"We show that compared to mitigation" (shelter in place) "of the entire population, the Controlled Avalanche strategy reduces the overall mortality by 43%, reduces the maximum number of people in need for ICUs by 62% and decreases the time required for release of 50% of the low-risk population by more than 50 months."
"The ongoing Covid-19 pandemic has driven many countries to take radical suppression measures. While reducing mortality, these measures result in severe economic repercussions, and inhibit the development of herd immunity. Until an effective vaccine will be available, we propose an alternative approach, akin to avalanche control at ski resorts, a practice which intentionally triggers small avalanches in order to prevent a singular catastrophic one. Its main goal is to approach herd immunity faster than the current alternatives, with lower mortality rates and lower demand for critical health-care resources. According to this approach, individuals whose probability of developing serious health conditions is low (i.e. 20-49 years old with no co-morbidities) will be offered the option to be voluntarily exposed to the virus under controlled supervision, and will then be issued 'immunity certificates' if they are confirmed to have developed SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. "

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.12.20062687v1.full.pdf?fbclid=IwAR24Nepksr4OMcog3ZAJFmatTZeZUUmtAGbuOnXucqlntTK9Q-U96Flq0cY

 

[MrockStar]

This is what military units do around the world, usually small special Ops and all voluntary. Because Israel has mandatory 2 yrs home defense military service after high school this doesn't surprise me that the article originated there.

 

[b2bailey]

I began reading the article with an expectation it was going to propose the young group be released from SIP. Was shocked to read of plan to inject with virus.

 

[DannyTS]

An Israel Study on how removing the shelter in place can save lives if done via their proposed "controlled avalanche" (CA). Unlikely but still interesting analysis by Eyal Klement Koret School of Veterinary Medicine, Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, the Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel and others.....
Here is a excerpt from the authors of the study:
"We show that compared to mitigation" (shelter in place) "of the entire population, the Controlled Avalanche strategy reduces the overall mortality by 43%, reduces the maximum number of people in need for ICUs by 62% and decreases the time required for release of 50% of the low-risk population by more than 50 months."
"The ongoing Covid-19 pandemic has driven many countries to take radical suppression measures. While reducing mortality, these measures result in severe economic repercussions, and inhibit the development of herd immunity. Until an effective vaccine will be available, we propose an alternative approach, akin to avalanche control at ski resorts, a practice which intentionally triggers small avalanches in order to prevent a singular catastrophic one. Its main goal is to approach herd immunity faster than the current alternatives, with lower mortality rates and lower demand for critical health-care resources. According to this approach, individuals whose probability of developing serious health conditions is low (i.e. 20-49 years old with no co-morbidities) will be offered the option to be voluntarily exposed to the virus under controlled supervision, and will then be issued 'immunity certificates' if they are confirmed to have developed SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. "

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.12.20062687v1.full.pdf?fbclid=IwAR24Nepksr4OMcog3ZAJFmatTZeZUUmtAGbuOnXucqlntTK9Q-U96Flq0cY

"Elimination of this particular threat (Covid 19) cannot materialize until adequate herd immunity is reached. It is therefore time for policy makers to include herd immunity as the main goal in the array of policy options. The health, economic, and social costs of all the options to achieve this goal need to be more fully evaluated, compared and discussed."
Agreed. The longer the current situation goes on, the more unsustainable.

This is happening in Canada now due to delayed medical interventions:
"Colleagues of Dr. Andrew Krahn, Vancouver-based president of the Canadian Cardiovascular Society, called to check on a patient awaiting the pandemic-delayed implant of a defibrillator, a device designed to prevent lethal heart rhythm problems. His daughter answered, revealing that the patient had already died, says Krahn"

'Sacrificed in the name of COVID patients': Tens of thousands affected by surgery cancellations

Almost 200,000 surgeries and other procedures were shelved indefinitely, as hospitals braced for a deluge that never quite materialized

nationalpost.com

 

[MrockStar]

Bummer.