Is Vaccination Futile?

[arcsinx]

This question arises out of a discussion I had with a work colleague yesterday.

A new study from Scotland published in the Lancet estimates the Pfizer vaccine as only 79% effective against the Delta Covid variant, down from 95% in the original strain. Moderna is probably similar.

As time goes on, the vaccines are slowly becoming less efficacious. And, according to World in Data, only 2.4 billion vaccines have been administered worldwide, much lower than would be needed to stop Covid.

So here's the question: Is it possible that the vaccination effort is largely futile? Meaning is it possible that Covid mutates so quickly that vaccination of the planet isn't possible before said vaccine is rendered ineffective? If this were the case, it'd be very similar to flu, where new vaccines would have to be developed and adminstered on a seasonal or annual basis. But since Covid is at 1-2 orders of magnitude more deadly than the flu and also several times more infectious, this spells bad news for the pandemic and the world moving beyond Covid anytime soon. At one point, I was cautiously optimistic that the world could mobilize and squash this disease, but that seems to be overly naive at this point and seems to be much more likely that this pandemic will continue in waves in perpetuity.

Thoughts?

 

[Passepartout]

There is a world of difference between 'catching the disease' and dying from it. Here:
Virtually all hospitalized Covid patients have one thing in common: They're unvaccinated (nbcnews.com)

From the article: It's been the same for Dr. Ken Lyn-Kew, a pulmonologist in the critical care department at Denver's National Jewish Health: "None of our ICU patients has been vaccinated."

Looks to me like vaccination is not only recommended, but crucial to returning to 'normality'.

 

[Old Hickory]

My thoughts are that TV news should be avoided.

 

[Chrisky]

“If this were the case, it'd be very similar to flu, where new vaccines would have to be developed and adminstered on a seasonal or annual basis.”
First of all, I realize you didn’t write this, but from what I understand the vaccine was never touted as being a cure.
So, yes, I believe that we will definitely have to receive boosters either seasonally, or perhaps sooner, just like the flu shots.

Also to what Passeport posted, “looks to me like vaccination is not only recommended, but crucial to returning to normality”.

 

[jeffox]

A surprising stat I heard about my state, all 500+ people hospitalized for COVID, none have been vaccinated. That's not saying that vaccinated people don't get sick, but it sure keeps you out of the hospital.

 

[DrQ]

So here's the question: Is it possible that the vaccination effort is largely futile? Meaning is it possible that Covid mutates so quickly that vaccination of the planet isn't possible before said vaccine is rendered ineffective? If this were the case, it'd be very similar to flu, where new vaccines would have to be developed and adminstered on a seasonal or annual basis. But since Covid is at 1-2 orders of magnitude more deadly than the flu and also several times more infectious, this spells bad news for the pandemic and the world moving beyond Covid anytime soon. At one point, I was cautiously optimistic that the world could mobilize and squash this disease, but that seems to be overly naive at this point and seems to be much more likely that this pandemic will continue in waves in perpetuity.

From the article:

A recent study from Public Health England that the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is 96 percent effective against hospitalization from the Delta variant after two doses and that the AstraZeneca-University of Oxford vaccine in 92 percent effective.

If the vaccine trains our immune system to deal with COVID and reduce hospitalizations, that is a win. Even if we have to get booster shots.

CDC director says she expects 'Delta' variant to become dominant in US

CDC director Dr Rochelle Walensky said on Friday she expects the Indian 'Delta' coronavirus variant, B.1.617.2, to become dominant in the U.S.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

This question arises out of a discussion I had with a work colleague yesterday.

A new study from Scotland published in the Lancet estimates the Pfizer vaccine as only 79% effective against the Delta Covid variant, down from 95% in the original strain. Moderna is probably similar.

As time goes on, the vaccines are slowly becoming less efficacious. And, according to World in Data, only 2.4 billion vaccines have been administered worldwide, much lower than would be needed to stop Covid.

So here's the question: Is it possible that the vaccination effort is largely futile? Meaning is it possible that Covid mutates so quickly that vaccination of the planet isn't possible before said vaccine is rendered ineffective? If this were the case, it'd be very similar to flu, where new vaccines would have to be developed and adminstered on a seasonal or annual basis. But since Covid is at 1-2 orders of magnitude more deadly than the flu and also several times more infectious, this spells bad news for the pandemic and the world moving beyond Covid anytime soon. At one point, I was cautiously optimistic that the world could mobilize and squash this disease, but that seems to be overly naive at this point and seems to be much more likely that this pandemic will continue in waves in perpetuity.

Thoughts?

We need a new vaccine.

One has been tested in pigs.

Killed whole-genome reduced-bacteria surface-expressed coronavirus fusion peptide vaccines protect against disease in a porcine model

We report a vaccine platform to express vaccine antigens on the surface of genome-reduced bacteria to enhance vaccine immunogenicity. We demonstrate the utility of this vaccine platform by expressing the highly conserved fusion peptide (FP) of SARS-CoV-2 and porcine epidemic diarrhea virus on...

www.pnas.org

(Sorry, this is a serious paper. I'll translate for those of us who aren't microbiologists.)

Instead of making a vaccine against the most dangerous part, they found a way to make a vaccine against the part of the virus'es outsides that never mutates. To make the vaccine effective, they put that part on the outside of a bacteria, and then made a killed bacteria vaccine (which is the oldest vaccine technology in the world), which triggers the immune system to attack that stable part of the corona (COVID) virus - all corona viruses. In pigs, this was tested against both pig corona viruses AND COVID-19. It worked against <both> corona viruses at the same effectiveness (around 80% in pigs).

THIS is the vaccine we need to slow down the pandemic.

Any bets you won't hear about for many years?

(edited for a few mistypes.)

 

[lynne]

There is a world of difference between 'catching the disease' and dying from it. Here:
Virtually all hospitalized Covid patients have one thing in common: They're unvaccinated (nbcnews.com)

From the article: It's been the same for Dr. Ken Lyn-Kew, a pulmonologist in the critical care department at Denver's National Jewish Health: "None of our ICU patients has been vaccinated."

Looks to me like vaccination is not only recommended, but crucial to returning to 'normality'.

The unfortunate part is that those of us who had the vaccine, are immunocompromised and have taken Rituxan which can stay in your system for over a year completing treatment are are at the mercy of those unvaccinated people who will refuse to wear a mask.

For Immunocompromised People, the Pandemic Is Far From Over

“It’s always going to hang over my head.”

slate.com

 

[beejaybeeohio]

Big segment on NPR's Science Friday about monoclonal antibody treatments for immunocompromised folk who test + for the virus and how currently it can help but the variants might create obstacles to this treatment.