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How much should you save for retirement ?

Brett

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How much should you save for retirement ?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-to-know-if-your-retirement-savings-are-on-track-11617311712

Fidelity says workers should aim to save at least six times their annual income by age 50; T. Rowe Price and J.P. Morgan put the figure for a 50-year-old, depending on household income, at about five times annual earnings. Yes, these ballpark figures can be helpful. But they address only one part of planning for later life. Ideally, you want to find out: Are my finances as a whole heading in the right direction? Put another way, you don’t want to reach the year 2033—assuming you do, in fact, retire in 12 years—and discover that in the early 2020s you could have or should have been more aggressive or conservative


retire1.jpg

I’ll conclude with a sobering thought: Fully 50% of all households in the U.S. are at risk of not having enough to maintain their living standards in retirement, says the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. Again, a comprehensive financial checkup at least 10 to 15 years before retiring can help put you in the better half of that mix.
 

bogey21

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Most will not have the income or discipline to save enough for basic retirement. Why not just gradually triple or quadruple Social Security withholding and gradually increase the benefits beginning say 20 years from now...

George
 

HitchHiker71

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Most will not have the income or discipline to save enough for basic retirement. Why not just gradually triple or quadruple Social Security withholding and gradually increase the benefits beginning say 20 years from now...

George

No thanks - unless we convert to individual SS retirement accounts that are willable and actually owned by the individual as opposed to the bankrupt ponzi scheme system we have today.


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easyrider

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I know a handful of Fidelity managed investors who lost too much money in 2007 - 2008 making it hard to retire when they wanted. I wonder why it would be any different in the next market downturn ?

Inflation seems to be very high in some sectors so if a person had retired and was living off their investments only the new deck would cost 6 times as much for materials and 2 times as much for labor. Looking a car prices and they are way higher than in the past.

Even the best portfolios do not really keep up with the recent inflation in some sectors, imo.

Bill
 
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Conan

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There was a good thread on this subject in 2012(!)
 

elaine

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I know a handful of Fidelity managed investors who lost too much money in 2007 - 2008
hmmm. I believe that those who rode it out for even 2 years recouped much/most of that. I assume they instructed F to sell out low? IMHO, even 5X gross by 50 is not a likely amount for most to attain, esp. if they had student loans and/or childcare or lived in a high cost area. I had 3 kids. DH and I luckily had the ability to both go PT and cobble together some ad hoc childcare. If we've put kids in daycare, I'd have had to clear almost $50K to pay daycare (after taxes) with zero funds coming into our household, much less any retirement savings.
 
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easyrider

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hmmm. I believe that those who rode it out for even 2 years recouped much/most of that. I assume they instructed F to sell out low? IMHO, even 5X gross by 50 is not a likely amount for most to attain, esp. if they had student loans and/or childcare or lived in a high cost area. I had 3 kids. DH and I luckily had the ability to both go PT and cobble together some ad hoc childcare. If we've put kids in daycare, I'd have had to clear almost $50K to pay daycare (after taxes) with zero funds coming into our household, much less any retirement savings.

Yes, they did ride it out but some had to go back to work, some took their ss and others managed.

Bill
 

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No thanks - unless we convert to individual SS retirement accounts that are willable and actually owned by the individual as opposed to the bankrupt ponzi scheme system we have today.


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I usually agree with you, HitchHiker71, but not this time. Social Security is one of the best pieces of legislation ever enacted in the U.S. and is responsible for providing tens of millions of senior citizens with the opportunity to live a life of dignity in retirement.
 

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You have to start with what your expenses will be in retirement. Are you planning on relocating to a lower cost area? Do you want to maintain 2 homes (snowbird)? Will you take all your bucket list trips early in retirement?
Once you have an idea on expenses you can calculate your income needs . Will you have a pension? When do you plan on taking Social Security? Once you have an idea on expenses and you add in pension/SS income you can calculate what your needs will be.
With all that done calculate the rate you want to draw down your savings. The old rule of thumb was 4% adjusted annually for inflation . Given longer life spans and lower interest rates 3-3.5% is a more realistic rate. The sad reality is most people are woefully unprepared for retirement.
 

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I usually agree with you, HitchHiker71, but not this time. Social Security is one of the best pieces of legislation ever enacted in the U.S. and is responsible for providing tens of millions of senior citizens with the opportunity to live a life of dignity in retirement.
While I am ok w/ SS as it stands now as a safety net, I agree with @HitchHiker71 in opposing the expansion of SS (quadrupling it) as @bogey21 was suggesting above. The government gets enough of my money as it stands -- I would much prefer that it just provides a safety net and not try to replace personal responsibility in saving for your retirement above that level.

Kurt
 

HitchHiker71

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hmmm. I believe that those who rode it out for even 2 years recouped much/most of that. I assume they instructed F to sell out low? IMHO, even 5X gross by 50 is not a likely amount for most to attain, esp. if they had student loans and/or childcare or lived in a high cost area. I had 3 kids. DH and I luckily had the ability to both go PT and cobble together some ad hoc childcare. If we've put kids in daycare, I'd have had to clear almost $50K to pay daycare (after taxes) with zero funds coming into our household, much less any retirement savings.

Actually it took about four years for the markets to recover to the pre-Great Recession levels, which was much shorter than the 25 years it took after the Great Depression in comparison. Still, four years is a long time for those who were either retired or were on the cusp of retirement.

6x by age 50 is a pretty tall order. I consider myself pretty financially savvy, having gone to school for arbitrage, finance with a focus on securities analysis. We've saved as much as we could over the years since I understand all too well the concepts of compound interest and the time value of money. That said, we also had three children, starting at the tender age of 23, so it was difficult to balance retirement savings with home ownership, having my wife be a stay at home mom for several years, college savings, and all of life's other curve balls. We should be at right around 5x gross income by the time we are both 50 years old - in Feb 2022 timeframe - if all goes well. 6x is a bit of a pipe dream unless Tesla stock doubles over the next year - in which case we would actually come close to meeting the 6x recommendation, all other things being equal (which they rarely are IME).
 

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To those who worry about saving for retirement...
As a retired person, I can say: Spending in retirement is more fun.
.
 

HitchHiker71

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I usually agree with you, HitchHiker71, but not this time. Social Security is one of the best pieces of legislation ever enacted in the U.S. and is responsible for providing tens of millions of senior citizens with the opportunity to live a life of dignity in retirement.

It was when it was put into place roughly 80 years ago now, but it no longer meets modern day requirements. When SS was started, we had 15 paying into the system for every one person in retirement, and the average lifespan was considerably lower than it is today. People are living much longer in modern times, and we only have 3 people paying into the system for every one person in retirement, and that number will fall to two people within the next 10-15 years since demographically the US is no longer maintaining the birth ratios necessary to sustain our population. 2.1 is the required birth ratio, and the US is now at 1.9 and it's falling every year. The way the system is set up is unsustainable in other words. We need to modernize our entire approach to government, including the SS program. Endlessly raising taxes is not the solution either. We can do more with the same.

I'm not talking about program changes that would impact seniors today, I'm talking about program changes that would gradually phase in that would keep the program for everyone over a certain age today, and then gradually move away from the current redistribution program, given the demographics no longer support any such program, and toward a program that actually encourages long term wealth creation for every US citizen. We can keep the essentials of the current program - which is really an annuity program at heart - without much effort - while also guaranteeing that those that pay into the current system - who may die unexpectedly early in their retirement - can will their accounts to their children and/or grandchildren (or whomever else they wish to give the money they worked their entire lives away to).

Taking this approach would also remove the employer based burden of having to support retirement plans - employers could simply compete for employees based upon how much the employer is willing to contribute to the employee's individual retirement account. Employees could also make voluntary contributions to their own individual retirement account - to accelerate retirement timelines if so desired. A portion of the retirement account balance could be controlled by the employee - meaning the employee would be able to invest how they see fit - while another portion would be preserved - to limit market risk - and to guarantee a minimum annuity amount worst case. There's lots of possible options - but the idea here is we have to do something sooner rather than later - and I'd prefer to create real retirement/wealth accounts for everyone - as opposed to the vast redistribution system that SS is today - with no trust fund since the politicians have robbed almost every cent from the trust fund and put worthless IOUs in place of the actual monies that were supposed to be there all along.
 

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I think we’re pretty much in agreement on the politicians and the decisions they make. And your long term plan will probably work for the middle and upper class. My concern is for the poor. The following chart shows how Social Security lifts so many people out of poverty. These are people who can’t afford to save for retirement, especially at the 5-6x level discussed for most retirement plans. How do we, as a society, take care of the people who most need help?
TABLE 1
Effect of Social Security on Poverty (Official Poverty Measure), 2018
Percent in Poverty
Age GroupExcluding Social SecurityIncluding Social SecurityNumber Lifted Above the Poverty Line by Social Security
Children Under 1817.8%16.2%1,197,000
Adults Ages 18-6413.5%10.7%5,653,000
Elderly Age 65 and Over37.8%9.7%14,810,000
Total, All Ages18.5%11.8%21,661,000
Source: CBPP analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s March 2019 Current Population Survey
 

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I will probably work forever or as long as I am able to. Hopefully my sons will want to take over. Any retirement program a government controls will be full of waste. It not right that people who pay in early do not get more credit then those paying in later in life. With inflation a lot of seniors will suffer. Others with assets to sell will profit. That what a quick increase in minimum wage among other things cause. Hopefully I can avoid that.
 

VacationForever

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Taking this approach would also remove the employer based burden of having to support retirement plans - employers could simply compete for employees based upon how much the employer is willing to contribute to the employee's individual retirement account. Employees could also make voluntary contributions to their own individual retirement account - to accelerate retirement timelines if so desired. A portion of the retirement account balance could be controlled by the employee - meaning the employee would be able to invest how they see fit - while another portion would be preserved - to limit market risk - and to guarantee a minimum annuity amount worst case. There's lots of possible options - but the idea here is we have to do something sooner rather than later - and I'd prefer to create real retirement/wealth accounts for everyone - as opposed to the vast redistribution system that SS is today - with no trust fund since the politicians have robbed almost every cent from the trust fund and put worthless IOUs in place of the actual monies that were supposed to be there all along.

Singapore has one of the best retirement programs in the world. A couple of prior administrations have looked into Singapore's retirement program. What you have described has some similarities to their program.

When one starts working, 20% of the paycheck is automatically deducted and put into their individual Central Provident Fund (CPF) account. The employer matches 20%. Essentially, if you make $10K a month, you see $8K in your bank and $4K in your CPF account. CPF guarantees a growth rate of 4% annually. There is a list of conservative investment options you can elect if you choose to invest your money differently. You can buy a home with the CPF funds or pay hospital bills. There is no other way to withdraw until you reach 55. Even then, there is a minimum sum that must be maintained in the account or approved investments, to ensure that you don't blow off your CPF savings. Within the account, there are 3 sub-accounts, one for medical, one for "regular" and one for "final funeral expenses". Singapore's home ownership is well over 90% because people use CPF to fund the down payment and on-going mortgage payments.
 
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geist1223

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It all depends. Patti and I both have good State Retirements. Whom ever dies first continues to collect the other person's retirement pay. We both are drawing Social Security. I also have Reserve Military Retirement. Our Medical is covered by Medicare and Military Retiree Medical.
 

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Actually it took about four years for the markets to recover to the pre-Great Recession levels, which was much shorter than the 25 years it took after the Great Depression in comparison. Still, four years is a long time for those who were either retired or were on the cusp of retirement.

6x by age 50 is a pretty tall order. I consider myself pretty financially savvy, having gone to school for arbitrage, finance with a focus on securities analysis. We've saved as much as we could over the years since I understand all too well the concepts of compound interest and the time value of money. That said, we also had three children, starting at the tender age of 23, so it was difficult to balance retirement savings with home ownership, having my wife be a stay at home mom for several years, college savings, and all of life's other curve balls. We should be at right around 5x gross income by the time we are both 50 years old - in Feb 2022 timeframe - if all goes well. 6x is a bit of a pipe dream unless Tesla stock doubles over the next year - in which case we would actually come close to meeting the 6x recommendation, all other things being equal (which they rarely are IME).

Absolutely. 6X by age 50 is ridiculous. This is our '51' year and we are around 3.5X maybe 5X if we include the equity of our home.
 

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You have to start with what your expenses will be in retirement. Are you planning on relocating to a lower cost area? Do you want to maintain 2 homes (snowbird)? Will you take all your bucket list trips early in retirement?
Once you have an idea on expenses you can calculate your income needs . Will you have a pension? When do you plan on taking Social Security? Once you have an idea on expenses and you add in pension/SS income you can calculate what your needs will be.
With all that done calculate the rate you want to draw down your savings. The old rule of thumb was 4% adjusted annually for inflation . Given longer life spans and lower interest rates 3-3.5% is a more realistic rate. The sad reality is most people are woefully unprepared for retirement.

I agree. Very important. When they talk about multiples of salary, you have to take into account what you actually live on. My wife and I max out our 401Ks and we still save around 50% of our take home pay. Once retired, I dont need to fund my 401Ks or save all that cash.

Plus I assure you that I will probably live in area that are more affordable that Marlboro, NJ. No $20K real estate tax or obscene auto insurance. However, we will probably spend more on socializing and entertainment.
 

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So, what does everyone think you can generate in income for your retirement on say $1MM. Can you generate 4% to withdraw each year? Or if you generate 4% can you withdraw 6%?
 

am1

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So, what does everyone think you can generate in income for your retirement on say $1MM. Can you generate 4% to withdraw each year? Or if you generate 4% can you withdraw 6%?

You could start 6% but then its seven and eight and so on.
 

HitchHiker71

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I think we’re pretty much in agreement on the politicians and the decisions they make. And your long term plan will probably work for the middle and upper class. My concern is for the poor. The following chart shows how Social Security lifts so many people out of poverty. These are people who can’t afford to save for retirement, especially at the 5-6x level discussed for most retirement plans. How do we, as a society, take care of the people who most need help?
Age GroupExcluding Social SecurityIncluding Social SecurityNumber Lifted Above the Poverty Line by Social Security
Percent in Poverty
Effect of Social Security on Poverty (Official Poverty Measure), 2018
TABLE 1
Children Under 1817.8%16.2%1,197,000
Adults Ages 18-6413.5%10.7%5,653,000
Elderly Age 65 and Over37.8%9.7%14,810,000
Total, All Ages18.5%11.8%21,661,000
Source: CBPP analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s March 2019 Current Population Survey

Lots of possibilities here really. Long term - there's no better way to lift people out of poverty than to create real wealth - willable wealth via individual retirement accounts. But, that won't start happening for decades - so we need to think long term when it comes to transitioning, and the sooner we get started the better. For one, a substantial portion of what we pay out from social security - actually has nothing to do with retirement plans. Here's the data on disability and survivorship benefits paid out:

1617673025905.png


Link to document: https://www.ssa.gov/news/press/factsheets/basicfact-alt.pdf

So, over 25% of social security that is collected - pays out to disability and survivorship today. These programs need to be completely separate from any retirement program IMHO. The disability and survivorship programs were subsequently added to SS in 1956 - more than a decade after SS came into existence in other words. If we want to fund disability insurance for those that need it - that's just fine - but let's not conflate retirement savings with disability programs like we've been doing for the past almost 70 years now.

For the people who cannot save for retirement - that's exactly where an actual wealth building program comes out way ahead. Right now we all contribute 12.6% of our monies to SSI. That includes poor people BTW. Noone gets a break on paying SSI. Let's say someone makes 40k per year in today's dollars and pays into the system until the current retirement age of 67. 45 working years from today. In today's dollars, retiring at age 67 - SSI would pay this person $1644/month - or $19,728 annually. This was calculated using the SSI quick calculator here: https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/quickcalc/

Now let's assume the person had an individual retirement account, making the same 12.6% contributions, using a simple calculator here: https://www.bankrate.com/calculators/savings/simple-savings-calculator.aspx

This means a monthly contribution of $420/month for the same 45 years. Their retirement account, assuming 7% annual returns (not exactly aggressive here), would add up to almost exactly 1.5MM dollars. The person hasn't saved a dime of there own money in this scenario. Stick that 1.5MM into any number of different low risk investments making 3% per annum - that's $45,000 per year - without touching the principle even. That's more than double the retirement income. That's real wealth creation - as opposed to a tax redistribution system. If this person dies unexpectedly at any point - that money is willed to their estate and/or beneficiaries. That's life changing sums of money for everyone involved. Money we currently entrust to politicians who have squandered and wasted it away over the past 50 years, and left us with a bankrupt retirement redistribution program today. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice...

Now - let's deal with the disability and survivorship aspects. Since we're paying out about 25% of SSI today for elements that have nothing to do with retirement savings - we could simply create a flat 10% forced retirement contribution program per above, as opposed to 12.6% today - and then redirect the other 2.6% to programs designed to do nothing but fund disability and survivorship programs. Though survivorship programs would become much less necessary if we were to adopt a real wealth creating retirement program - since a surviving spouse would inherent the entire individual retirement account from the spouse that passed away, largely if not completely negating the need for any survivorship program in the first place.

This was just one of many examples out there on how to modernize social security to create real wealth over the long term - life changing wealth for every American. How do we get from point A to point B? Many someones much smarter than me have already thought up solutions. It's definitively possible - we just lack the political will to do it.
 
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HitchHiker71

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Singapore has one of the best retirement programs in the world. A couple of prior administrations have looked into Singapore's retirement program. What you have described has some similarities to their program.

When one starts working, 20% of the paycheck is automatically deducted and put into their individual Central Provident Fund (CPF) account. The employer matches 20%. Essentially, if you make $10K a month, you see $8K in your bank and $4K in your CPF account. CPF guarantees a growth rate of 4% annually. There is a list of conservative investment options you can elect if you choose to invest your money differently. You can buy a home with the CPF funds or pay hospital bills. There is no other way to withdraw until you reach 55. Even then, there is a minimum sum that must be maintained in the account or approved investments, to ensure that you don't blow off your CPF savings. Within the account, there are 3 sub-accounts, one for medical, one for "regular" and one for "final funeral expenses". Singapore's home ownership is well over 90% because people use CPF to fund the down payment and on-going mortgage payments.

The Chilean government has had a similar program for decades now. Anyone can read about it here: https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v68n2/v68n2p69.html

Note that link is right off of our very own SSA website - who also has endorsed the very same system I'm a proponent for as far back as 2006. The article above was published in 2008. Many other nations have since adopted the Chilean model of wealth creation via forced individual retirement accounts. Seriously, read the article, and see why this is the right answer to creating real wealth for all Americans over the long term.
 

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Absolutely. 6X by age 50 is ridiculous. This is our '51' year and we are around 3.5X maybe 5X if we include the equity of our home.

That's a good point on the home equity item. If I include home equity, or really if we're talking about net worth as the measure, we are actually well over 5x already, and prior to the drop in growth stocks over the past two months, I was knocking on the door of 6x. This includes equity in our two rental properties as well.
 
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