How long can the travel industry survive with shut downs?

[Fredflintstone]

So, we are looking at at least until April 30th before we even consider things opening up again.

Some resorts say this could last six months or longer.

My friend who is now layed off in Vegas sent me this picture he took today.

Another friend sent me this picture from Waikiki. He is also layed off.

I understand safety here BUT the costs are very high. A month with all the federal help may be fine, but what about 6 months of this? How about 3 months of this.

If the virus don’t get you, the shut down will.

What are your thoughts? How long do you think the hospitality industry can last and when do you think this shutdown will end?


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[geekette]

Interruption will be temporary but no guess on timeline. The buildings will still be there. I would expect that those with means will want the heck out of their home shelter and go anywhere else when it is safe and feasible.

There will not be an end to hospitality. People still want to see the world and take vacations from jobs they will resume or the new ones they will get. We will want to do the things we used to do but cannot do right now.

The only industries I see going away forever are the ones there is no further demand for. I will not guess which those might be, but I don't think Vegas is in any danger of permanent Goodbye.

 

[WalnutBaron]

As for how long it might go, President Trump said today that he expects the NFL season to open on time (meaning early September) and with fans in the seats. The California governor said, in response: "I don't see that." This could go on for a very long time because--until a vaccine is widely available--social distancing is all we have.

 

[Fredflintstone]

As for how long it might go, President Trump said today that he expects the NFL season to open on time (meaning early September) and with fans in the seats. The California governor said, in response: "I don't see that." This could go on for a very long time because--until a vaccine is widely available--social distancing is all we have.

I certainly understand a vaccine is key.

However, I am not sure if the many folks who work in the hospitality industry can survive. My friend in Vegas told me that he can hold out 4 months tops unless the federal support continues. After that, he says he cannot pay his mortgage any longer and thus will have to make dire decisions then. He says the worry of survival is much higher than the risk of catching a virus. My friend in Hawaii says 3 months. He rents and he pays 2500 a month for a one bedroom. It’s not in the best part of town either.

As for the businesses themselves, they can hold off for longer. They carve staff and pay the basics. In the end it’s the regular hospitality worker that suffers.

It makes one think. I truly feel bad for them.


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[10spro]

I don't think we can get back to "normal" until there is a vaccine widely available which is best case 12 months. I understand NFL is a really big deal, but I can't imagine any worse sport to open back up with, even if you play with an empty stadium, think of the players, coaches and staff. It could be they may be able to play regional games or within state borders. Ticket prices are going to have to come down though, with so many people filing for unemployment, I can't imagine anyone has extra money for a ticket and concessions.

 

[TravelTime]

This virus has me wondering about timeshares. You get stuck with the MFs whether you use them or not. Maybe hotels are the way to go. You don’t lose anything if you have to cancel. I suspect this virus will have people shaken up for a long time and it will affect travel for a long time. I hope travel opens up again soon and the industry recovers.

 

[Big Matt]

My two cents. Everyone is going to have to figure out what to do given the States have authority now to make their own decisions. I could see a scenario where LA, San Francisco, Seattle, and New York (and maybe south Florida) are all still problematic by the NFL season whereas almost everywhere else is past the epidemic. I would assume that teams coming from above mentioned problem cities would either have to relocate to a city without cases, get players tested, and then play all their games on the road or out of their temporary new home. It would be fairly straight forward to move the 49rs to Las Vegas and use the Raiders new facility. Seahawks could play somewhere in eastern Washington or Idaho, Rams could play in Arizona, etc., etc, etc.

I wouldn't wager if the stadiums would be full even if people are allowed in give the paranoia

 

[am1]

My two cents. Everyone is going to have to figure out what to do given the States have authority now to make their own decisions. I could see a scenario where LA, San Francisco, Seattle, and New York (and maybe south Florida) are all still problematic by the NFL season whereas almost everywhere else is past the epidemic. I would assume that teams coming from above mentioned problem cities would either have to relocate to a city without cases, get players tested, and then play all their games on the road or out of their temporary new home. It would be fairly straight forward to move the 49rs to Las Vegas and use the Raiders new facility. Seahawks could play somewhere in eastern Washington or Idaho, Rams could play in Arizona, etc., etc, etc.

I wouldn't wager if the stadiums would be full even if people are allowed in give the paranoia

In August/September there could be new hot spots.

(political comment removed)

 

[geekette]

Teams, and more importantly, players, should decide for themselves. I don't see it happening. There is no place that will be "past this". I would also be against all the tests going to NFL players when we still don't have enough for sick people. We saw that with NBA already. I have a problem with people that make big money being prioritized ahead of displaced workers that make barely anything and are in the food lines.

 

["Roger"]

In the countries that have been the most successful fighting the virus, they have aggressively tested and when someone tested positive, they have traced who that person has had contact with and had them self isolate. So, a reserve linebacker on, for example, the Chicago Bears tests positive, does the team self isolate? What happens to their schedule?

 

[Big Matt]

In August/September there could be new hot spots.

Cases, yes, hot spots.....I don't think so. My assumption is that travel will still be discouraged or banned for a while after cases go to zero. We have two choices. Either let everyone out NOW. Let everyone get exposed to it and move along OR wait until a vaccine is available and everyone can be tested for antibodies. The latter will decimate our economy to a point where the Great Depression will look like a minor dip in the economy. My guess is that the minute we realize that we aren't getting a vaccine or testing, the State's Governors will all one by one start lifting the SIP directives. However, I think there will be travel restrictions in and out of cities, states, the Country, etc.

 

[CalGalTraveler]

Dr. David Ho who discovered the Aids/HIV treatment and is now funded to for Covid-19 research observes that states/people that don't shelter in place only prolongs how long this will last and time it takes to recover. As Samuel Jackson says in his YouTube Video, "Stay the F*** home."

 

[VacationForever]

You know how they make prostitutes take HIV test every month or so and they carry a card to show that they are negative. For contact sports they can do something like that.

 

[Fredflintstone]

Cases, yes, hot spots.....I don't think so. My assumption is that travel will still be discouraged or banned for a while after cases go to zero. We have two choices. Either let everyone out NOW. Let everyone get exposed to it and move along OR wait until a vaccine is available and everyone can be tested for antibodies. The latter will decimate our economy to a point where the Great Depression will look like a minor dip in the economy. My guess is that the minute we realize that we aren't getting a vaccine or testing, the State's Governors will all one by one start lifting the SIP directives. However, I think there will be travel restrictions in and out of cities, states, the Country, etc.

Your points are well taken.

Again, I do understand safety issues.

However, do you see a possible slippery slope here?

1. Wanna go out of your cities...your papers.
2. Wanna go out of the country? Covered, papers is your passport.
3. Wanna go to the next county? Your papers...

Temporary measures can sometimes develop into permanent ones..

Seeing how this plays out will be real interesting...


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[bluehende]

One of the problems with the NFL is that a lot of experts including Fauchi has stated there is a very good chance of this picking up again in the fall. Getting 90000 people together may not be a good idea. The chances of an effective vaccine by fall is slim. At this point we are not even sure that getting covid19 gives immunity and certainly do not know how long that will last.

 

[geekette]

At this point we are not even sure that getting covid19 gives immunity and certainly do not know how long that will last.

This is one of my big concerns. I think there were 8 strains, last I "knew" (read) but not sure anyone knows if having one creates immunity to the others. I am not a scientist, know next to nothing about mutations, except that mutants are in some ways different from what they mutated from.

I will keep on playing it safe. I have not met my original goal hatched in midFeb to have my case at far end of the curve. I am pretty sure I will get it, pretty sure I have not had it, even asymptomatic variety.

We don't know if the folks getting the mild or asymptomatic cases will be felled the next time they get it. There seem to be more unknowns than knowns. This is the worst sci fi thriller ever.

 

[VacationForever]

I have read many posts on TUG that say "almost everyone will get it". My husband and I are adament to not get it and we are taking all precautions to keep it that way. We will likely extend our self-imposed SIP/SAH long after the country lifts it. It is a good thing that we are retired and we do golf safely, which is our only outdoor outlet. What will get us out of our homes again will be effective and widely available therapeutic drugs and/or vaccine availability. It is a good thing we have million dollar views from our home which softens the impact of SIP/SAH.

 

[bluehende]

This is one of my big concerns. I think there were 8 strains, last I "knew" (read) but not sure anyone knows if having one creates immunity to the others. I am not a scientist, know next to nothing about mutations, except that mutants are in some ways different from what they mutated from.

I will keep on playing it safe. I have not met my original goal hatched in midFeb to have my case at far end of the curve. I am pretty sure I will get it, pretty sure I have not had it, even asymptomatic variety.

We don't know if the folks getting the mild or asymptomatic cases will be felled the next time they get it. There seem to be more unknowns than knowns. This is the worst sci fi thriller ever.

I am with you. I want my case late as opposed to early. Much more chance of a therapeutic that at least gives me a better chance. People are scared and we want the answers to all these questions. The problem is that this disease is so new that there has not been anywhere near enough time to be able to answer those. I am actually amazed at how much we do know with a disease that did not exist 5 months ago. Imagine how hard it would be to pick this disease out as different in the middle of flu season. China gets a bad rap (some deservedly so) but going from 0 to telling the world in about 6 weeks with a new disease that has up to a 14 day latency is darn good.

 

[geekette]

I have read many posts on TUG that say "almost everyone will get it". My husband and I are adament to not get it and we are taking all precautions to keep it that way. We will likely extend our self-imposed SIP/SAH long after the country lifts it. It is a good thing that we are retired and we do golf safely, which is our only outdoor outlet. What will get us out of our homes again will be an effective and widely available therapeutic drugs and/or vaccine availability. It is a good thing we have million dollar views from our home which softens the impact of SIP/SAH.

I am a big proponent of hiding from it. I won't hide forever, so I will likely get it at some point. Just not ready yet. I would also like to see a lot of vax happening with no ill effects before I get that.

I am with you on not thinking "oh, it's all safe now!" when home orders are lifted. Do what's right for you. I support that completely. Nobody really knows enough to proclaim anything safe and not sure when, if at all, that could actually be trusted. One person's paranoia is another person's sensible precautions. You won't see me ever making fun of you for staying safe, because I think it is sensible. It bothered me to no end to read about people making all these trips out for this n that, even after We Knew. But, I can't stop them. I can only control myself in not being out with them.

 

[Big Matt]

Your points are well taken.

Again, I do understand safety issues.

However, do you see a possible slippery slope here?

1. Wanna go out of your cities...your papers.
2. Wanna go out of the country? Covered, papers is your passport.
3. Wanna go to the next county? Your papers...

Temporary measures can sometimes develop into permanent ones..

Seeing how this plays out will be real interesting...


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I get all of your points, and I still think we will see travel restrictions. These are truly unprecedented times.

 

[10spro]

I am a big proponent of hiding from it. I won't hide forever, so I will likely get it at some point. Just not ready yet. I would also like to see a lot of vax happening with no ill effects before I get that.

I am with you on not thinking "oh, it's all safe now!" when home orders are lifted. Do what's right for you. I support that completely. Nobody really knows enough to proclaim anything safe and not sure when, if at all, that could actually be trusted. One person's paranoia is another person's sensible precautions. You won't see me ever making fun of you for staying safe, because I think it is sensible. It bothered me to no end to read about people making all these trips out for this n that, even after We Knew. But, I can't stop them. I can only control myself in not being out with them.

China just did a "oh, it's all safe now" and slowly opened up restaurants, shops, movies, etc. A few days later some areas went back on lockdown anticipating a second wave. Sad to say, but trust your instinct rather than your government.

China is trying to relax its severe coronavirus lockdown, but a series of forced re-closures shows how hard it is to get back to normal

China — which is deeper than any other country in its coronavirus response — is struggling to snap back to reality. Others will likely struggle too.

www.yahoo.com

 

[amycurl]

I saw on LinkedIn this morning the discussion about re-opening the MLB Season, playing in their spring training parks, no fans, with teams held in isolation and social distancing in the clubhouse and dugout. (After all, to play, the majortity of the players are 6 feet apart.) I can certainly see the appeal of the idea.

If take-out restaurants are consider essential, don't we need bread *and* roses?

Rumored MLB 2020 season plan: Three reactions | Sporting News

www.sportingnews.com

REPORT: MLB Considering Starting the Season in Empty Spring Training Stadiums, with Teams Quarantined - Bleacher Nation

The logistical hurdles are many, and mighty. But if it could be done safely, isn't it the right thing to do?

www.bleachernation.com

 

[geekette]

I see a lot of contact in baseball. First basemen, catchers, and umpires seem to be at most risk. Distance isn't possible, dug outs don't have the space. Moving teams around on buses fouls it, too.

I don't think anyone should be in a rush to get sports going again. I understand that team owners must have more money, but I don't think players owe it to anyone to put themselves and their families at risk.

 

[Fredflintstone]

One key point not addressed yet is the world really needs to emphasize safe food handling.

From what I have read, this virus was traced to originate from a Wet Market in Wuhan. I have been to Wet Markets in Asia and they are filthy places where food handling is very bad. I went to one in the Philippines and the stench plus the heat and the flies landing on fresh meat did it for me.

Also, in this wet market in Wuhan, live bats were being sold as food. They think the bats transferred covid 19 to snakes that are also food and its the snakes that transferred it to humans.

I remember SARS started in a similar way. Hence, these wet markets are birth places of global diseases.

If you want the details, here is a great resource from a Korean Doctor specializing in Infectious diseases.

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[TravelTime]

One key point not addressed yet is the world really needs to emphasize safe food handling.

From what I have read, this virus was traced to originate from a Wet Market in Wuhan. I have been to Wet Markets in Asia and they are filthy places where food handling is very bad. I went to one in the Philippines and the stench plus the heat and the flies landing on fresh meat did it for me.

Also, in this wet market in Wuhan, live bats were being sold as food. They think the bats transferred covid 19 to snakes that are also food and its the snakes that transferred it to humans.

I remember SARS started in a similar way. Hence, these wet markets are birth places of global diseases.

If you want the details, here is a great resource from a Korean Doctor specializing in Infectious diseases.

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This is frustrating to hear. This pandemic could be avoided if they outlawed food markets and/or had sanitary guidelines in place.