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Here is the number 82%

DrQ

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In order for COVID-19 to stop spreading 82% of the population will have to have immunity. :(

The scientists at Los Alamos took the data from China and came to the following conclusions:
  • Virus passed from 1 to another between 2.3 to 3.3 days (it was thought to be 6)
  • 82% of people would need to be immune to stop spreading
  • Each carrier actually infected an average of 5.7 people (it was thought to be 2-3)
This virus is a prolific spreader.

Given that there are three strains, I wonder how effective a vaccine will be. This is a nightmare.:eek:

High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2
 

Panina

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In order for COVID-19 to stop spreading 82% of the population will have to have immunity. :(

The scientists at Los Alamos took the data from China and came to the following conclusions:
  • Virus passed from 1 to another between 2.3 to 3.3 days (it was thought to be 6)
  • 82% of people would need to be immune to stop spreading
  • Each carrier actually infected an average of 5.7 people (it was thought to be 2-3)
This virus is a prolific spreader.

Given that there are three strains, I wonder how effective a vaccine will be. This is a nightmare.:eek:

High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2
The analysis is only as good as the data provided. Since the data is taken from China we still don’t know.
 

Cornell

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I'm a statistician by occupation. I admire the effort that people put into posts /arguments / analysis but it is so easy to poke holes at them. They are like political arguments - you can use them to bolster your own POV, but they can rarely be used to change someone's minds.
 

DrQ

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From the report:
Results show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic persons can be effective when the fraction of unidentified persons is low. However, when 20% of transmission is driven by unidentified infected persons, high levels of social distancing efforts will be needed to contain the virus (Figure 6), highlighting the importance of early and effective surveillance, contact tracing, and quarantine. Future field, laboratory, and modeling studies aimed to address the unknowns, such as the fraction of asymptomatic persons, the extent of their transmissibility depending on symptom severity, the time when persons become infectious, and the existence of superspreaders are needed to accurately predict the impact of various control strategies (20).​

At this point we are still flying blind. The current test:
  • Takes too long
  • Requires a skilled clinician to collect the sample
  • Has a high false negative rate
To get out of lock-down mode we need a test where we can quickly identify infections and use contact tracing as a surgical strike for quarantine efforts. We also need an antibody test to determine what percentage of the population has been infected.

SARS was controlled because it presented itself with a fever during contagion. COVID-19 did not in all cases.

Being an engineer, you can't control anything until you can accurately measure it.
 
Last edited:

R.J.C.

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From the report:
Results show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic persons can be effective when the fraction of unidentified persons is low. However, when 20% of transmission is driven by unidentified infected persons, high levels of social distancing efforts will be needed to contain the virus (Figure 6), highlighting the importance of early and effective surveillance, contact tracing, and quarantine. Future field, laboratory, and modeling studies aimed to address the unknowns, such as the fraction of asymptomatic persons, the extent of their transmissibility depending on symptom severity, the time when persons become infectious, and the existence of superspreaders are needed to accurately predict the impact of various control strategies (20).​

At this point we are still flying blind. The current test:
  • Takes too long
  • Requires a skilled clinician to collect the sample
  • Has a high false negative rate
To get out of lock-down mode we need a test where we can quickly identify infections and use contact tracing as a surgical strike for quarantine efforts. We also need an antibody test to determine what percentage of the population has been infected.

SARS was controlled because it presented itself with a fever during contagion. COVID-19 did not in all cases.

Or we can just it do it's thing and achieve the immunity rate needed to not care about it anymore.
 
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DrQ

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Or we can just it do it's thing and achieve the immunity rate needed to not care about it anymore.
At the cost of how many lives? Are you volunteering to get infected, roll the dice ... your family? Planning on moving to New York are you?
 

pedro47

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In order for COVID-19 to stop spreading 82% of the population will have to have immunity. :(

The scientists at Los Alamos took the data from China and came to the following conclusions:
  • Virus passed from 1 to another between 2.3 to 3.3 days (it was thought to be 6)
  • 82% of people would need to be immune to stop spreading
  • Each carrier actually infected an average of 5.7 people (it was thought to be 2-3)
This virus is a prolific spreader.

Given that there are three strains, I wonder how effective a vaccine will be. This is a nightmare.:eek:

High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2
I have only one problem with this data it came from China. Is it factual data ? Can we trust China? I have seen photos of the infected City in China.
Are the photos stage or are these the actual living conditions right now in China. The city is very clean, with very little bicycle traffic, foot and automobile traffic.
Where are the photos of those fresh markets selling chickens, bats, meats and veggies to the public?
 

DrQ

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Or we can just it do it's thing and achieve the immunity rate needed to not care about it anymore.
This has got to take the cake of one of the most callous remarks I've seen in this community. Just taking NY city as an example of "just let it do it's (sic) thing":
NY.png

Just look at the shortage of beds. I hope you don't have a serious medical issue, because you are SOL. (Yes I know now they will put you up in the convention center, maybe. Imagine this situation nationwide. My DW has a coworker who's mother has fallen and is lying at home with a possible broken bone, but they will not even do an Xray because it is not life threatening.

Going to blame the American medical system, well here is Russia:
27095484-8211727-image-a-35_1586686604191.jpg

These ambulances were queue up for 15 hours to deliver patients in Moscow.

You remind me of the COVIdiot spring breakers that decided to Party-On because only "old people got sick and died".

Yes, like the Spanish Flu, the human race will survive, it is just a matter of how much suffering we will have to endure.
 

R.J.C.

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At the cost of how many lives? Are you volunteering to get infected, roll the dice ... your family? Planning on moving to New York are you?

Who in their right mind would move to NY, with or without the virus? You seem to think the lives of those who I don't know matter to me. If I get infected, hell, I may already be, who knows, but if I get infected, that is a risk I took and I will live with the consequences of my actions. That being said, people are sh**ing themselves over a 1.5% death rate and a less than 20% infection rate.
 

R.J.C.

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Yes, like the Spanish Flu, the human race will survive, it is just a matter of how much suffering we will have to endure.

You yourself said it. The human race will survive. None of us individually are that special including myself. I just don't create hyperbole over the matter or pee myself when someone says the word "Coronavirus". Whether you think I am callous or not because of my beliefs matters little (none actually) to me.
 

DrQ

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I have only one problem with this data it came from China. Is it factual data ? Can we trust China? I have seen photos of the infected City in China.
Are the photos stage or are these the actual living conditions right now in China. The city is very clean, with very little bicycle traffic, foot and automobile traffic.
Where are the photos of those fresh markets selling chickens, bats, meats and veggies to the public?
The numbers as they are currently are scary. I will bet that China is NOT hiding BETTER numbers. We also are gathering data sets from here and Europe which will allow for correlation.

As I said in a prior post, measurement is key along with aggressive contact tracing.
 
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