Hawaii is likely just eight to 10 days away from dropping COVID-19 testing and quarantine requirements for vaccinated travelers

[capjak]

I haven't seen any report that said that but I would be interested in seeing it. What I am looking at is the major increase in cases in July when the number of tourist arrivals along with with the lifting of the negative covid pre-test requirement for tourists was lifted. I don't think that is just a coincidence. However, there is a possibility that we are both right:

Hawaii COVID-19 Data | Disease Outbreak Control Division | COVID-19

health.hawaii.gov

The results are on this page and if you select table form it shows:
382 new cases on Maui in July 2021.

4% from non resident travel, 85% local community spread, 11% resident travel,

 

[controller1]

They measure the percentage based on 12+.

"But the governor’s 70% vaccination benchmark refers to the total population."

Ige: COVID restrictions will likely remain in place until the fall

Gov. David Ige says dropping the rules before Hawaii hits a 70% vaccination rate would be a mistake.

www.hawaiinewsnow.com

 

[lynne]

In Maui County, there is an average of 24 new cases with a 4.5% test positivity rate over 14 days. For every 100,000 residents in Maui County, there have been an average of 14.4 newly reported cases per day over the last seven days.

There are 18 individuals hospitalized in Maui County with COVID-19, according to counts last updated on July 30, 2021, from the Hawaiʻi Emergency Management Agency.

There are 18 ICU beds being used in Maui County at this time (out of 31 currently available). Four of the ICU beds are being used by COVID-19 patients. Eight ventilators (out of 38 available) are being used in Maui County, with three being used by COVID-19 patients.

Queen's Medical on Oahu and Hawai'i Island is beginning to feel the effects:

Queen's in need of 130 extra nurses to take on influx in hospitalizations

Queen's has seen a rise in both COVID and regular patients, including those who seek medical care for heart attacks, strokes, and trauma.

www.kitv.com

As a data point, the hospitals on Hawai'i Island are beginning to curtail any visitors from coming into the facilities. Hawai'i Island's infection rate is the highest in the state at 7% mostly due to resident travel and then bringing the virus back resulting community spread. For travel related, 85% is resident and 15% is visitor in Kamuela zip code (96743)

****If this is post not appropriate for the Hawaii forum, please move to Covid-19 specific****

 

[csodjd]

It is apparent that vaccinated tourists, who as we know can still be infected, are bringing the virus in great numbers to Hawaii and that is why the numbers are going up.

As stated above, that is not correct. At least that is not what the officials (political and healthcare) in Hawaii are reporting.

I just returned from 10 days there, and every report on the local news is saying the same thing -- the increase is the result of non-vaccinated residents returning to Hawaii and spreading COVID among their friends, family, church groups, etc. The attribute it to residents becoming infected shortly before being tested and returning, resulting in false negatives. It is particuarly a problem with those taking short trips to the mainland such as to Las Vegas.

The only meaningful way to address this is to require any unvaccinated person to undergo a test after arrival that is 5-7 days after their pre-flight test, and to have fast effective contract tracing for those that test positive on the second test (or require quarantine until the 2nd test).

 

[youppi]

The attribute it to residents becoming infected shortly before being tested and returning, resulting in false negatives.

Why not after the pre-flight test ?
There is plenty of time to be infected during the 72 hrs between the test and the departure if somebody doesn't take care.

 

[csodjd]

Why not after the pre-flight test ?
There is plenty of time to be infected during the 72 hrs between the test and the departure if somebody doesn't take care.

Certainly that too. But I believe what they are seeing is the ~5-day trip (Vegas and Texas were mentioned most) where people get exposed in their first couple days and so no matter when they get tested for the return flight, whether 3 days or 3 hrs before departure, it's probably too soon to pick up the infection.

 

[Tamaradarann]

Hawaii COVID-19 Data | Disease Outbreak Control Division | COVID-19

health.hawaii.gov

The results are on this page and if you select table form it shows:
382 new cases on Maui in July 2021.

4% from non resident travel, 85% local community spread, 11% resident travel,

Thank you for the Hawaii Covid-19 Data. The data does indicate like you said that the majority of cases that are revealed with testing are coming from those that are either returning residents or local community spread. However, in your post you just copied the first part of my post in responding. You left out the reason I said that perhaps we are both right. I believe the important part of my post was this:

"Tourists who have been vaccinated and become infected with covid shoud be coming down with a mild case. I have been on vacation at times and come down with a mild illness such as a cold, sinus infection, headache but I don't seek medical assistance I just deal with it with Advil, Tylenol, anti-histamines, decongestants etc. Maybe that is what is happening so those that are seeking medical assitance are locals."

The returning residents are a small fraction of those that get off the planes but more of them are testing positive than the tourists which is one indication that my statement above has some relevance. Why would more returning residents be testing positive? Also the returning residents live in Hawaii and perhaps have family and friends they want to protect from getting the virus so they are going to want to get tested. The tourist don't, they are on vacation so they are less apt to get tested.

 

[csodjd]

The returning residents are a small fraction of those that get off the planes but more of them are testing positive than the tourists which is one indication that my statement above has some relevance. Why would more returning residents be testing positive? Also the returning residents live in Hawaii and perhaps have family and friends they want to protect from getting the virus so they are going to want to get tested. The tourist don't, they are on vacation so they are less apt to get tested.

All very speculative. We can safely assume that tourists are not coming to Hawaii and choosing to quarantine; They are coming vaccinated and/or tested so they can vacation. A fair number of residents are returning with neither vaccination or testing and are being required to (choosing to) quarantine. This is known. It's in the data. Prior to this surge this was believed to be the primary source of COVID in the state, and it may well be a primary source of the surge along with the residents that tested falsely negative.

Moreover, tourists do tourist things in tourist places. They have never been a significant source of community spread. That has consistently been traced to church locations/events funerals, families, parties, etc.

In any event, your explanation would not affect the reported number of cases that has increased 3x-5x the last week or so because if tourists are not being tested they are not part of those numbers. All you are suggesting, without any data to support the theory, is that there are actually more cases than being reported.

My experience in Honolulu during the 18 days I was there in July was that people were largely wearing their masks when they should, indoors, etc., and going along pretty normal. I left a few days ago just as the case numbers were jumping, but overall the numbers are still pretty low and there has not been a lot of impact in the hospitals, though I did play golf with a nurse that works in the Woman's and Children's Hospital and he said they were definitely seeing some young women and children with COVID, and had just taken a 26-wk gestation baby by C-section so they could put the mother on a respirator.

 

[lynne]

Thank you for the Hawaii Covid-19 Data. The data does indicate like you said that the majority of cases that are revealed with testing are coming from those that are either returning residents or local community spread. However, in your post you just copied the first part of my post in responding. You left out the reason I said that perhaps we are both right. I believe the important part of my post was this:

"Tourists who have been vaccinated and become infected with covid shoud be coming down with a mild case. I have been on vacation at times and come down with a mild illness such as a cold, sinus infection, headache but I don't seek medical assistance I just deal with it with Advil, Tylenol, anti-histamines, decongestants etc. Maybe that is what is happening so those that are seeking medical assitance are locals."

The returning residents are a small fraction of those that get off the planes but more of them are testing positive than the tourists which is one indication that my statement above has some relevance. Why would more returning residents be testing positive? Also the returning residents live in Hawaii and perhaps have family and friends they want to protect from getting the virus so they are going to want to get tested. The tourist don't, they are on vacation so they are less apt to get tested.

You are correct that non-residents are only picked up if they begin to feel ill and submit to a test. They are not included in Hawaii's infection numbers making it almost impossible to determine the true ratio of infections from travel. Non-residents can also contribute to the community spread numbers if they have an infection when out in public and infect a resident. One of the large clusters in Kauai was from non-resident and resident travelers who went to church where the infection spread.

There are many more cases that are not being reported in the state due to the lack of testing. As of today, the numbers have been moving in the wrong direction for over a week and in person school is beginning on Tuesday leading to more outbreaks.

 

[Tamaradarann]

You are correct that non-residents are only picked up if they begin to feel ill and submit to a test. They are not included in Hawaii's infection numbers making it almost impossible to determine the true ratio of infections from travel. Non-residents can also contribute to the community spread numbers if they have an infection when out in public and infect a resident. One of the large clusters in Kauai was from non-resident and resident travelers who went to church where the infection spread.

There are many more cases that are not being reported in the state due to the lack of testing. As of today, the numbers have been moving in the wrong direction for over a week and in person school is beginning on Tuesday leading to more outbreaks.

Lynne, thank you for acknowledging and verifying that the points that I am making are actually occuring not just speculation. I know when we are in Hawaii we mix with residents in restaurants, breweries, theaters, symphonies, movies, supermarkets, Sam's, Walmart, Target as well as many shops throughout Waikiki as well as other areas of Honolulu. Since the Delta Varient is so infectious I am sure that you don't need to hug, kiss, or live with a resident to transmit the virus.

One thing that csodjd did bring up that I didn't think of is that while the great number of increases may be caused by infected tourists they are not being reflected in the numbers of infections that are being reported. Therefore, as you also mentioned, there are alot more actual infections than are being reported.

 

[csodjd]

One thing that csodjd did bring up that I didn't think of is that while the great number of increases may be caused by infected tourists they are not being reflected in the numbers of infections that are being reported. Therefore, as you also mentioned, there are alot more actual infections than are being reported.

However, also note that Hawaii‘s COVID case counts include Hawaii residents that are diagnosed out of state. That’s a bit curious because, for one thing, it is not a case of COVID in Hawaii, and for another, that person probably cannot return to Hawaii until they are no longer infectious so they are not a threat to community spread. So, to that extent, the number reported may be viewed as having an element of being over-stated.

While I appreciate that you mingle a lot with locals when you are in Hawaii, you also are by no means a “tourist” in any ordinary sense. You spend multiple consecutive months living there, so much so that you purchased a condo. That is not a tourist, that is a part-time resident. So your experience, like mine, is not that of a tourist at the Disney hotel, or at the Kaanapali Marriott. I doubt many tourists are going to Sams, Walmart, Target, symphonies and movies during their 7-14 days on their vacation of a lifetime on the beaches of Hawaii.

 

[csodjd]

the great number of increases may be caused by infected tourists

Again, that’s just not a statement supported by any data, and it is being expressly rejected by officials in Hawaii. You may believe it to be true, and may even be able to offer a reason why you think it is so, but it simply is not a fact and there is no evidence that suggests it is true. Notably, tourists are not being hospitalized, which directly contradicts your statement. It may be true that a tourist with mild symptoms won’t seek medical care, you’d still expect to see a proportional number of hospitalizations in tourists if, indeed, most COVID is coming from tourists because those reflect very sick patients.

 

[Tamaradarann]

However, also note that Hawaii‘s COVID case counts include Hawaii residents that are diagnosed out of state. That’s a bit curious because, for one thing, it is not a case of COVID in Hawaii, and for another, that person probably cannot return to Hawaii until they are no longer infectious so they are not a threat to community spread. So, to that extent, the number reported may be viewed as having an element of being over-stated.

While I appreciate that you mingle a lot with locals when you are in Hawaii, you also are by no means a “tourist” in any ordinary sense. You spend multiple consecutive months living there, so much so that you purchased a condo. That is not a tourist, that is a part-time resident. So your experience, like mine, is not that of a tourist at the Disney hotel, or at the Kaanapali Marriott. I doubt many tourists are going to Sams, Walmart, Target, symphonies and movies during their 7-14 days on their vacation of a lifetime on the beaches of Hawaii.

You do bring up a good point about our not being typical tourists. However, while the Disney Hotel and the Kaanapali Marriott are representative tourist destinations, the majority of tourists are in Waikiki a much more congested area where tourists are much more likely to mix with many more locals at the great variety of restaurants and shops as well as at Ala Moana Mall and on Buses.

 

[DeniseM]

THREAD CLOSED: The Hawaii forum is NOT the place for COVID debates - that's why we have a COVID forum.