According to the Lt. Gov.’s data, your analysis is incorrect. According to him, the number of people ALREADY vaccinated and just awaiting the two-weeks to be “fully vaccinated” already puts them over the 60% threshold, the majority of those (enough to go over 60%) are already past the first week of those two weeks, and every day more and more of those cross that two-week line. They know quite precisely how many are in the unstoppable pipeline to being fully vaccinated and when they will hit 60%.
I am pleased that the Lt. Governor and Governor followed through and eliminated the pre-test for travelers from the mainland who have been vax'd even though Hawaii fell short of its 60% target.
As of today (July 9), the official Hawaii DOH data shows that we are at 58.3% fully vax'd. That doesn't surprise me based on the data I was seeing when I made my previous post. So, I guess that the Lt. Governors own analysis was lacking or more blunt: the Lt. Governor's own analysis was, in the words of
@csodjd, "incorrect."
BTW, I have a science and math background. I love doing numerical analysis. What I saw that that lead me to my the conclusions I posted was that the data on the rate of vaccinations has been dropping significantly. Very simply, I looked at the number of people that would need to get their second shot and divided it by the number of days until July 8 and I saw the daily numbers that were too low to bring closure.
So, based on the official Hawaii DOH data, the people who have have had only one vax, have NOT been following up 100% with their second shot. For instance, on June 14, 60% had their first shot. So, most people would assume that in 2 weeks following June 14, that 60% of the people would have taken their second shot. So, using that logic, Hawaii would have been at 60% fully vaxed by June 28. But instead, we were only at 57.6% fully vaxed. So, a significant number of first-time vax'd people aren't showing up for their second shot. I find that concerning. I haven't tried to analyze how long it will take to reach 70% fully vaxed but I think that it could possibly one to two months or perhaps even more if the daily vax rate continues to drop That is just a guess on my part at this point.
There is something else that I find strange - - that is that on July 2nd, we were at 58.2% fully vax'd and then July 5, 6, 7 and 8 Hawaii DOH reported LOWER numbers. Perhaps they found some errors in their data.
Just my observations.