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Hawaii is likely just eight to 10 days away from dropping COVID-19 testing and quarantine requirements for vaccinated travelers

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csodjd

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It's down to believing individuals and taking their word at face value to determine if they've been vaccinated.
Probably true. But at this point, with most of Hawaii that visitors are in contact with being vaccinated (it is the more rural communities where vaccination rates are lower and dragging down the overall numbers), it no longer presents much risk to Hawaii residents, it is more a risk to the lying traveler.
 

zentraveler

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Right there with you. We’re holding off until Monday to get tested for our Tuesday trip, but it’s wishful thinking at this point. I do think the Lt. Gov. Is spot on though with his concern if they don’t change the rule by July 1. As he explained, they are sure to get travelers over the July 4 weekend thinking all they need is proof of vaccination.

I leave next a week from Saturday - July 3 - an am praying full time! I don't care so much about getting the test; that is the easy part. I am just hoping to have a smoother time landing at HNL on a holiday weekend.
 

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The test is going to be the easy part when you're looking at spending 13-15 hours in airports and on a plane...
 

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I just realized what you meant by the JPG! A picture of the card! I was looking for some type of official number or registration that would be recognized by the officials in Hawaii. Billlions being spent on vaccinations in the US and no type of record system that can be checked and recognized by different agencies!

The CDC maintains summary statistics for the entire country, but the person-level data lives in separate data systems in each state, usually in the state public health department. Given the speed that we deployed the vaccines and the need to deploy them as rapidly as possible, developing a massive, centralized national individual tracking database would have likely slowed the process considerably. It likely was seen as quicker to decentralize the individual record-keeping in each state's existing infrastructure to move faster, rather than bogging down the process by requiring a massive national system. The downside of that is we don't have the centralized data repository that smaller countries have, but I'm sure everyone felt getting shots in arms as fast as possible to protect as many people as quickly as possible was a higher priority than person-level data at the national level.
 

dsmrp

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Covid tests are plentiful compared to rental cars, ha ha! A year ago it was the opposite. :unsure:
 

csodjd

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The CDC maintains summary statistics for the entire country, but the person-level data lives in separate data systems in each state, usually in the state public health department. Given the speed that we deployed the vaccines and the need to deploy them as rapidly as possible, developing a massive, centralized national individual tracking database would have likely slowed the process considerably. It likely was seen as quicker to decentralize the individual record-keeping in each state's existing infrastructure to move faster, rather than bogging down the process by requiring a massive national system. The downside of that is we don't have the centralized data repository that smaller countries have, but I'm sure everyone felt getting shots in arms as fast as possible to protect as many people as quickly as possible was a higher priority than person-level data at the national level.
It is unknown to me what requirements were in place that the entity delivering the vaccination into your arm report into the state database. I know that I was vaccinated in a private “concierge style” corporate medical office (“Medical One”) and my wife got her shot at a UCLA medical office. California doesn’t show me in their database and they do show her. Did Medical One drop the ball? Were they required to report? Was an error made? I don’t know the answers to these questions, but I do know that it means the state database is incomplete. If you are in it you were probably vaccinated. If you are not in it it doesn’t mean you were not vaccinated.
 

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Welp, July 8th is the official date, per Ige. From his FB page just now:

Hawaiʻi is expected to reach a 60% fully vaccinated rate by July 8. Because of that, we will be able to safely relax some of the travel and social restrictions currently in place. Beginning July 8, Hawaiʻi will accept vaccination records from other states and US territories to bypass quarantine/pre-travel testing. Social gatherings will increase to 25 indoors and 75 outdoors statewide. Restaurants can also increase to 75% capacity (max 25 indoors/75 outdoors). Mahalo to everyone for doing their part to keep our community safe as we continue to begin resuming life “normally.” If you’re interested in getting vaccinated, you can find a link to register here: https://hawaiicovid19.com/vaccine/ #HIGotVaccinated
 

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We got our results back in 12 hours from CityHealth. Super easy. Now figuring out how to get registered on safe travels and upload.
 

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I leave next a week from Saturday - July 3 - an am praying full time! I don't care so much about getting the test; that is the easy part. I am just hoping to have a smoother time landing at HNL on a holiday weekend.
That was the Lt. Gov.'s concern. That many will come over thinking that all they need next weekend is a vaccination card. By then Hawaii will probably have hit 60% and people will easily be confused into thinking they don't need to be tested.
 

BJRSanDiego

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As of today's data from the official Hawaii site, they are at 57%. The current rate of "closure" is about 1 % increase every 5 to 7 days. So, I think that on July 8 that they'll be very close BUT not yet at 60 percent. I wonder if they will still open things up if they are at, say, 59%.
 

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As of today's data from the official Hawaii site, they are at 57%. The current rate of "closure" is about 1 % increase every 5 to 7 days. So, I think that on July 8 that they'll be very close BUT not yet at 60 percent. I wonder if they will still open things up if they are at, say, 59%.
According to the Lt. Gov.’s data, your analysis is incorrect. According to him, the number of people ALREADY vaccinated and just awaiting the two-weeks to be “fully vaccinated” already puts them over the 60% threshold, the majority of those (enough to go over 60%) are already past the first week of those two weeks, and every day more and more of those cross that two-week line. They know quite precisely how many are in the unstoppable pipeline to being fully vaccinated and when they will hit 60%.
 

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According to the Lt. Gov.’s data, your analysis is incorrect. According to him, the number of people ALREADY vaccinated and just awaiting the two-weeks to be “fully vaccinated” already puts them over the 60% threshold, the majority of those (enough to go over 60%) are already past the first week of those two weeks, and every day more and more of those cross that two-week line. They know quite precisely how many are in the unstoppable pipeline to being fully vaccinated and when they will hit 60%.
I hope that you (and Josh Green) are correct.
 

csodjd

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I hope that you (and Josh Green) are correct.
All that really matters is that the state stands by what the Governor said, and I'm confident they will.
 

BJRSanDiego

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According to the Lt. Gov.’s data, your analysis is incorrect. According to him, the number of people ALREADY vaccinated and just awaiting the two-weeks to be “fully vaccinated” already puts them over the 60% threshold, the majority of those (enough to go over 60%) are already past the first week of those two weeks, and every day more and more of those cross that two-week line. They know quite precisely how many are in the unstoppable pipeline to being fully vaccinated and when they will hit 60%.

I am pleased that the Lt. Governor and Governor followed through and eliminated the pre-test for travelers from the mainland who have been vax'd even though Hawaii fell short of its 60% target.

As of today (July 9), the official Hawaii DOH data shows that we are at 58.3% fully vax'd. That doesn't surprise me based on the data I was seeing when I made my previous post. So, I guess that the Lt. Governors own analysis was lacking or more blunt: the Lt. Governor's own analysis was, in the words of @csodjd, "incorrect."

BTW, I have a science and math background. I love doing numerical analysis. What I saw that that lead me to my the conclusions I posted was that the data on the rate of vaccinations has been dropping significantly. Very simply, I looked at the number of people that would need to get their second shot and divided it by the number of days until July 8 and I saw the daily numbers that were too low to bring closure.

So, based on the official Hawaii DOH data, the people who have have had only one vax, have NOT been following up 100% with their second shot. For instance, on June 14, 60% had their first shot. So, most people would assume that in 2 weeks following June 14, that 60% of the people would have taken their second shot. So, using that logic, Hawaii would have been at 60% fully vaxed by June 28. But instead, we were only at 57.6% fully vaxed. So, a significant number of first-time vax'd people aren't showing up for their second shot. I find that concerning. I haven't tried to analyze how long it will take to reach 70% fully vaxed but I think that it could possibly one to two months or perhaps even more if the daily vax rate continues to drop That is just a guess on my part at this point.

There is something else that I find strange - - that is that on July 2nd, we were at 58.2% fully vax'd and then July 5, 6, 7 and 8 Hawaii DOH reported LOWER numbers. Perhaps they found some errors in their data.

Just my observations. :shrug:
 
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For all of you who paid big bucks for your testing to go to Hawaii, we got ours free through Walgreen's. I wonder what the difference is. Could it have been our Medicare age? Pre-existing conditions? Luck?

Medicare covers the test, so Walgreens likely billed them. I suspect that many younger folks also were covered by their insurance. And the rest got it for free as well - Walgreens, unlike CVS, don't charge for the test. but we live in CA, where the approved rapid test isn't available, and didn't want to take a chance back in May so went to CityHealth and paid $20 for a rapid test. My assumption is that they also billed Medicare and Tricare but I haven't seen an EOB from either of them yet.
 

BJRSanDiego

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Yesterday, July 30, Hawaii finally reached 60% fully vaxed. The original story (post #1) thought that they would achieve that by about June 27. Well it took an additional month, but it finally occurred.

In regards to when Hawaii will reach the 70% milestone, people have opined that it will occur in September. But the rate of "closure" is extremely low. IMHO, it could take anywhere from 3 to 6 months.
 

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Yesterday, July 30, Hawaii finally reached 60% fully vaxed. The original story (post #1) thought that they would achieve that by about June 27. Well it took an additional month, but it finally occurred.

In regards to when Hawaii will reach the 70% milestone, people have opined that it will occur in September. But the rate of "closure" is extremely low. IMHO, it could take anywhere from 3 to 6 months.
Can't help but wonder if the surge occurring there now will help drive people to be vaccinated. It may be awfully hard to get to that 70% without kids under 12 and without some existential push like a surge of cases.
 

BJRSanDiego

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Can't help but wonder if the surge occurring there now will help drive people to be vaccinated. It may be awfully hard to get to that 70% without kids under 12 and without some existential push like a surge of cases.
Yes, I'm wondering the same thing about the surge being a catalyst. Right now the published death rate is still very low. But the deaths lag the reported new cases by about 3 weeks. So, it may take a while for people to take this surge more seriously and get more motivated to get the jab.

It is surprising how many people have taken only one dose of vaccine and didn't follow up with the second one. Around June 9, the single dose group reached the 60% point. If everyone with the single dose would have followed up with the second dose, it would have only taken perhaps a week to 10 days. That is probably what the reporter of the article (and Josh Green) thought. That is, they assumed that everyone would get the 2nd dose. But it actually took about 50 more days before the fully vax'd percent hit 60%. So, it seems like a bunch of people are either skipping the 2nd dose or are delaying it.

I'm hoping that Hawaii doesn't back track and re-institute Covid pre-tests for the vax'd people traveling to Hawaii.
 

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They measure the percentage based on 12+.
 

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Yes, I'm wondering the same thing about the surge being a catalyst. Right now the published death rate is still very low. But the deaths lag the reported new cases by about 3 weeks. So, it may take a while for people to take this surge more seriously and get more motivated to get the jab.

It is surprising how many people have taken only one dose of vaccine and didn't follow up with the second one. Around June 9, the single dose group reached the 60% point. If everyone with the single dose would have followed up with the second dose, it would have only taken perhaps a week to 10 days. That is probably what the reporter of the article (and Josh Green) thought. That is, they assumed that everyone would get the 2nd dose. But it actually took about 50 more days before the fully vax'd percent hit 60%. So, it seems like a bunch of people are either skipping the 2nd dose or are delaying it.

I'm hoping that Hawaii doesn't back track and re-institute Covid pre-tests for the vax'd people traveling to Hawaii.

With the numbers going up so much I am less concerned about kids under 12 getting vaccinated or getting to 70% of the Hawaiian Residents vaccinated. It is apparent that vaccinated tourists, who as we know can still be infected, are bringing the virus in great numbers to Hawaii and that is why the numbers are going up. I haven't been able to get any data on severity of those that are infected or the hospitalizations so I don't know what impact this has on the health system but it certainly seems like the virus is circulating in Hawaii more than it ever has.

I am concerned that they will implement testing of everyone, vaccinated or not, before they come to Hawaii. We have been vaccinated but have never been tested since we have never needed to get tested.

I do have some hope in the near future with the high infected numbers. This is peak summer tourist season with the highest number of tourists bringing the highest number of children to Hawaii. Those numbers will be coming down significantly come September. I suspect that the infected numbers will be going down also. Also, while in the temperated climates the chances of infection go up in the Fall and Winter since people spend more time in doors closed up. However, in Hawaii the numbers go down since less infected tourists come and it is less crowded, but everyone is still outdoors and perhaps the windows are open more since it is not as hot.
 

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Every report that I have read recently states the opposite - that the increased numbers are largely from residents.
 

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Every report that I have read recently states the opposite - that the increased numbers are largely from residents.

I haven't seen any report that said that but I would be interested in seeing it. What I am looking at is the major increase in cases in July when the number of tourist arrivals along with with the lifting of the negative covid pre-test requirement for tourists was lifted. I don't think that is just a coincidence. However, there is a possibility that we are both right:

I was just thinking about something eating lunch a few minutes ago. Tourists who have been vaccinated and become infected with covid shoud be coming down with a mild case. I have been on vacation at times and come down with a mild illness such as a cold, sinus infection, headache but I don't seek medical assistance I just deal with it with Advil, Tylenol, anti-histamines, decongestants etc. Maybe that is what is happening so those that are seeking medical assitance are locals.
 

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In Maui County, there is an average of 24 new cases with a 4.5% test positivity rate over 14 days. For every 100,000 residents in Maui County, there have been an average of 14.4 newly reported cases per day over the last seven days.

There are 18 individuals hospitalized in Maui County with COVID-19, according to counts last updated on July 30, 2021, from the Hawaiʻi Emergency Management Agency.

There are 18 ICU beds being used in Maui County at this time (out of 31 currently available). Four of the ICU beds are being used by COVID-19 patients. Eight ventilators (out of 38 available) are being used in Maui County, with three being used by COVID-19 patients.
 
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