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  • A few of the most common links here on the forums for newbies and guests!

Flattening the Curve

davidvel

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We heard a lot in March and April about the stay at home orders being directed at flattening the curve, so that the healthcare system did not become overwhelmed. There were a myriad of future looking graphs showing how cases needing advance hospital care were predicted to exceed the available care. After over 2 months, I can't find any actual graphs showing where we are today. It's been generally reported that the hospitals/ICUs are doing fine, and few if any patients have died due to undercapacity, but the graphs all seem to have dried up.

Anyone have any sources?
 

T_R_Oglodyte

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Here's one commonly used one. You can use the drop down box at the top of to obtain more specific data.

 

Brett

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We heard a lot in March and April about the stay at home orders being directed at flattening the curve, so that the healthcare system did not become overwhelmed. There were a myriad of future looking graphs showing how cases needing advance hospital care were predicted to exceed the available care. After over 2 months, I can't find any actual graphs showing where we are today. It's been generally reported that the hospitals/ICUs are doing fine, and few if any patients have died due to undercapacity, but the graphs all seem to have dried up.

Anyone have any sources?

most online newspapers show some version of the daily "curve"

curv.jpg
 

geekette

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MULTIZ321

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BLUEWATER BY SPINNAKER HHI
ROYAL HOLIDAY CLUB RHC (POINTS)
ICU Bed Capacity in All 50 U.S. States Compared. [lnfographic]


.


Richard
 

Old Hickory

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We heard a lot in March and April about the stay at home orders being directed at flattening the curve, so that the healthcare system did not become overwhelmed. There were a myriad of future looking graphs showing how cases needing advance hospital care were predicted to exceed the available care. After over 2 months, I can't find any actual graphs showing where we are today. It's been generally reported that the hospitals/ICUs are doing fine, and few if any patients have died due to undercapacity, but the graphs all seem to have dried up.

Anyone have any sources?

As you can see, there is a lot of information out there. Good luck deciphering it all.
 

tschwa2

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I am a bit of a nerd and check on my state gov page everyday. I look at the cases per county (watching especially my own and one a bit further away but with several chicken processing plants), deaths, hospital capacity and the number of tests per day. They don't spell that one out but you can tell approximately by the new positives and new negatives per day. It looks like in Maryland they are only doing about 6,000 tests per day but that is up from the 4,000 per day in the previous 2 weeks.
 

SueDonJ

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Anecdotally, my family members who are RN's working in COVID-19 units at Boston-area hospitals are telling us that it's still a nightmare but more manageable than it was before the curve started flattening. Every ICU bed/vent is still being utilized with new patients coming in every day. There are still people of all ages dying every day without family members nearby to comfort them. My daughter-in-law and sister both say some variation of the same thing - they have no idea what day it is, their own lives are divided between "the unit" where there's no conception of anything but illness and death, and, "the outside world" where they believe most of the rest of us have no conception of what's happening in their real world.

The eight of us sisters have a text group and it's the only contact we've had with J since this all began - she's the one who works at a major hospital in Boston's Longwood medical area. She refuses to even do recommended social distancing with us so it's been months since we've seen her and she's been warning us that we won't see her until 15 days have passed since the last patient in her unit is discharged. This is her latest text to our group: "we were told in a staff mtg the other day we will likely be the last covid unit closed with essentially no end date in site"

I am really envious of the positive outlook that many TUGgers have about all this. Really envious.
 

geekette

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I am a bit of a nerd and check on my state gov page everyday. I look at the cases per county (watching especially my own and one a bit further away but with several chicken processing plants), deaths, hospital capacity and the number of tests per day. They don't spell that one out but you can tell approximately by the new positives and new negatives per day. It looks like in Maryland they are only doing about 6,000 tests per day but that is up from the 4,000 per day in the previous 2 weeks.
Yes, my state is doing a good job on this. It has been easy to see the rate of testing increase, plus the breakout to county level for resources, as state roll up is not particularly helpful if you are 3 hours from an available ICU bed and don't know it. I am very concerned about our rural folks as these areas often coincide with nursing home outbreaks yet few medical facilities.

We are about 30% nursing home deaths.
 

geekette

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... I am really envious of the positive outlook that many TUGgers have about all this. Really envious.

Mass has been hammered, I am so sorry for the ... haunting things your sister is experiencing. Other areas don't seem to be much touched, so it does matter how close to an outbreak one lives, and, even more, the in-the-thick-of-it'edness any of us have. Send your sister a cyberly distanced hug from me. I could not do what she is doing and am grateful every day for those doing the extremely hard work of trying to save lives. And, not always being successful. If I worked in a PPE factory, I would be working overtime, even unpaid, to try to support the front line.
 

MrockStar

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Anecdotally, my family members who are RN's working in COVID-19 units at Boston-area hospitals are telling us that it's still a nightmare but more manageable than it was before the curve started flattening. Every ICU bed/vent is still being utilized with new patients coming in every day. There are still people of all ages dying every day without family members nearby to comfort them. My daughter-in-law and sister both say some variation of the same thing - they have no idea what day it is, their own lives are divided between "the unit" where there's no conception of anything but illness and death, and, "the outside world" where they believe most of the rest of us have no conception of what's happening in their real world.

The eight of us sisters have a text group and it's the only contact we've had with J since this all began - she's the one who works at a major hospital in Boston's Longwood medical area. She refuses to even do recommended social distancing with us so it's been months since we've seen her and she's been warning us that we won't see her until 15 days have passed since the last patient in her unit is discharged. This is her latest text to our group: "we were told in a staff mtg the other day we will likely be the last covid unit closed with essentially no end date in site"

I am really envious of the positive outlook that many TUGgers have about all this. Really envious.
It depends, like you said you have loved ones directly in the fight. Me iam working essentially in a large plant and had several co workers pass from cv-19 and many out sick some for a month. our city Detroit is/was hammered not like NY, or maybe boston but bad. I have relied on my faith and friends, family and my cottage to get through this. Also no TV media, 1 newspaper and some radio & TUG. Careful what you fill your mind/heart with it can hurt your outlook. Hope this helped.
 

T_R_Oglodyte

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If we're going to whine about how some people are better off than others, ....

Most poor people don't have jobs they can do from home. It's predominately people of privilege who have that luxury. Heck, few poor people even own timeshares or can afford to travel to distant locations on vacation.

If you think I'm saying that we TUGgers are largely a group of privileged people in this world, you would be exactly correct. One of the benefits of traveling to different areas, particularly areas that might be struggling, is that I get reminded of how privileged I am.
 
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csodjd

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If we're going to whine about how some people are better off than others, ....

Most poor people don't have jobs they can do from home. It's predominately people of privilege who have that luxury. Heck, few poor people even own timeshares or can afford to travel to distant locations on vacation.

If you think I'm saying that i think we TUGgers are largely a group of privileged people, in this world, you would be exactly correct. One of the benefits of traveling to different areas, particular areas that might be struggling, is that I get reminded of how privileged I am.
We had some members of our Country Club bitching about the golf course being closed and saying we need to push the County to allow it to open. I had to remind them that, in the scheme of things, it really doesn't come off very well whining about not being able to play our country club while people are in food lines and dying.
 

b2bailey

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We had some members of our Country Club bitching about the golf course being closed and saying we need to push the County to allow it to open. I had to remind them that, in the scheme of things, it really doesn't come off very well whining about not being able to play our country club while people are in food lines and dying.
I had imagined, that if the area where I live (Palm Springs) had opened golf courses, then all must be open. I'm not a golfer, but would never have put that activity high on the danger list. It's funny to me that some areas have opened hair salons while others have not.
 

csodjd

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I had imagined, that if the area where I live (Palm Springs) had opened golf courses, then all must be open. I'm not a golfer, but would never have put that activity high on the danger list. It's funny to me that some areas have opened hair salons while others have not.
Well, you can't just "open" a golf course. You need maintenance crews, staffing, cart management, etc. It was less about the golfers and more about the employees. But it is also about the County resources and spending their limited time and people dealing with the bigger issues first. Rather than figuring out how to safely open a golf course, they were figuring out how to get testing done, homeless people taken care of, food distributed, etc.
 

Brett

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If we're going to whine about how some people are better off than others, ....

Most poor people don't have jobs they can do from home. It's predominately people of privilege who have that luxury. Heck, few poor people even own timeshares or can afford to travel to distant locations on vacation.

If you think I'm saying that we TUGgers are largely a group of privileged people in this world, you would be exactly correct. One of the benefits of traveling to different areas, particularly areas that might be struggling, is that I get reminded of how privileged I am.

yes, I agree with you about the demographics of this forum
good to be privileged - and retired with time to travel :)
 

SmithOp

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I’m going out Thursday to play golf, first time since Feb. I need the exercise to flatten the curve around my waistline.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro
 

geekette

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....Careful what you fill your mind/heart with it can hurt your outlook.

This needed its own post.
 

geekette

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I’m going out Thursday to play golf, first time since Feb. I need the exercise to flatten the curve around my waistline.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro
Oh, boy, I will be using that! Very Clever!
 

davidvel

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Thank you everyone for your responses. I appreciate what Sue's frontline family is dealing with. This is why I am looking for hard data. Here in California, and even Washington, all of the frontline health care workers I talk to say that there is an oversupply of hospital beds, ventilators (many taken from ORs normally used for routine surgery). In fact, a major hospital here in San Diego has laid off over 200 healthcare workers. But certainly there are pockets of really bad situations, especially east coast.

What I am specifically looking for are graphs showing actual data (not predictions) of ICU/hospital needs vs. capacity.
T_R_Oglodyte's "Hospital Resource Use" is wham I'm looking for, but it's all predictions. This chart has to exist with actual data somewhere!.
 

PigsDad

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I have found the CDC's COVID-19 Hospitalization Data site to be very informative. It does not have data from all states, but it does include Colorado (where I am). You can set the graph to display "weekly rate", which I find more informative vs. cumulative rate. I think the hospitalization rate is a better indicator vs. confirmed cases, since confirmed cases is highly correlated to how many tests are being done and doesn't indicate the severeness of the cases. On the other hand, hospitalization rate shows how many severe cases there are, and is independent from how many tests were done.

If you poke around on that site, you can see that some states are still on the rise, while most are on the decline. Thankfully, Colorado peaked the first week of April, and has been on a pretty steep decline ever since, and has not seen any reduction of that decline since SIP orders were relaxed.

Kurt
 

davidvel

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I have found the CDC's COVID-19 Hospitalization Data site to be very informative. It does not have data from all states, but it does include Colorado (where I am). You can set the graph to display "weekly rate", which I find more informative vs. cumulative rate. I think the hospitalization rate is a better indicator vs. confirmed cases, since confirmed cases is highly correlated to how many tests are being done and doesn't indicate the severeness of the cases. On the other hand, hospitalization rate shows how many severe cases there are, and is independent from how many tests were done.

If you poke around on that site, you can see that some states are still on the rise, while most are on the decline. Thankfully, Colorado peaked the first week of April, and has been on a pretty steep decline ever since, and has not seen any reduction of that decline since SIP orders were relaxed.

Kurt
Great site Kurt. It seems that there has been an abandonment of plotting of hospital capacity against cases. It may be possible to manually put the two data sets together.

It would seem that those areas where anecdotal evidence shows hospitals being overwhelmed would publicize this data in graph form.
 

T_R_Oglodyte

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Thank you everyone for your responses. I appreciate what Sue's frontline family is dealing with. This is why I am looking for hard data. Here in California, and even Washington, all of the frontline health care workers I talk to say that there is an oversupply of hospital beds, ventilators (many taken from ORs normally used for routine surgery). In fact, a major hospital here in San Diego has laid off over 200 healthcare workers. But certainly there are pockets of really bad situations, especially east coast.

What I am specifically looking for are graphs showing actual data (not predictions) of ICU/hospital needs vs. capacity.
T_R_Oglodyte's "Hospital Resource Use" is wham I'm looking for, but it's all predictions. This chart has to exist with actual data somewhere!.
David -

That site provides actual data for dates where hard data exist (usually a few days before the current date; it's projections going forward. Where you see the shading start is where it turns into projections - the shading indicates their uncertainty levels. Where it's actual data there is no uncertainty. Look at the example below - note that the shading starts beginning sometimes last week.

1589951805943.png
 
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