Fear & Greed Index

[artringwald]

Anybody else follow the Fear & Greed Index? It looks like a good time to sell stocks.

 

[bluehende]

Since my investment style is contrarian this looks very interesting. Do you know if there is a graph somewhere with the index over laid with
the S&P to see if it is predictive or lagging.

 

[GetawaysRus]

I follow a bunch of indicators, checking on about a 3 month basis. Frankly, they haven't done me a helluva lot of good lately. Many indicators are showing that the stock market is high by historical standards, so they have kept me more conservative as the stock market has been bulling higher and higher. Of course, one of these days there will be a correction, and then the indicators will seem correct.

For general market indicators, I look at the Shiller PE and the "Buffet index" (total stock market cap to GDP). Both of these are saying that the stock market is high compared to historical yardsticks.

If you like sentiment indicators, there is the one noted above and also the AAII Sentiment Index (American Association of Individual Investors) and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index.

If you look at the AAII sentiment survey, it's looking somewhat neutral now, with no clear signal. I've read up some on it, and my impression is that it is really only useful at sentiment extremes (extreme bullishness or extreme bearishness).

Bottom line: I have no idea what's going to happen in the markets. Short term trading is a fool's game in my opinion, or maybe I'm just not smart enough.

 

[bogey21]

I have stopped buying stocks with the monthly deposits I am making to my Grandkid's 529 Education Accounts. Buying more at these levels seems to have more downside than upside to me...

George

 

[PigsDad]

I have stopped buying stocks with the monthly deposits I am making to my Grandkid's 529 Education Accounts. Buying more at these levels seems to have more downside than upside to me...

For a fairly short-term investment like a 529, I think that makes sense. For a truly long-term investment, it has been proven time and time again that trying to time the market is a fool's game.

Kurt

 

[VacationForever]

We remain invested at 65-30-5, equity-fixed income-cash, for the past 7 years. No reason to change. In reality we are closer to 55-40-5, if we include annuities which we have purchased into the mix. Australia has a bull run streak of 24 years already. We may keep on going.

 

[geekette]

Bottom line: I have no idea what's going to happen in the markets. Short term trading is a fool's game in my opinion, or maybe I'm just not smart enough.

Has nothing to do with your intelligence!

I think one could do well here and there, but I sure wouldn't want the stress of trying it for any significant money.

 

[artringwald]

The no brainer way to invest is to figure out what percentages you want, like VacationForever did, and rebalance occasionally to keep those percentages. That way you're always buying low and selling high. Scott Burns calls it couch potato investing.

https://assetbuilder.com/knowledge-...ly_how_to_be_a_couch_potato_portfolio_manager