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Covid in exponential decay

Roger830

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We have seen that covid has climbed exponentially, now charts show the the decline is also exponential.

Think of a bell curve with long tails.

 

Brett

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We have seen that covid has climbed exponentially, now charts show the the decline is also exponential.

Think of a bell curve with long tails.

And yesterday there was an exponential rise in Covid 19 cases --- just not in your country


https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/01/india-covid-daily-coronavirus-cases-pass-400000-for-first-time.html
 

CanuckTravlr

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Interesting article -

I wonder if the math applies to - exponential hysteria.

[IMO - Canada has been in exponential growth of hysteria for weeks over Covid 19 variants of concern]
Hysteria? Really?? That characterization sounds more like a political bias or personal resentment for not being able to travel, than a statement of facts. Hysteria is what is happening in India, for good reason there. That doesn't describe what is happening here, IMO.

I live in Ontario, too, where we are currently still experiencing over 3500 new cases per day. While it finally seems to have peaked, that is more than the peak of the second wave in January and almost ten times the peak in the original peak in April/May 2020. We have just brought in the military to open up a number of military field hospitals to help keep the ICUs from becoming overrun. We have enough ICU units so far, but are critically short on trained ICU nursing staff.

We are seeing higher positivity rates here due to the variants that are accounting for a significant number of the new cases. It is also not just the elderly, but also the younger people who are getting it this time around. This is happening right across the country. Even places like Nova Scotia and Nunavut, who have managed to mostly control cases up to now, are experiencing record case numbers.


Let's try and keep the hyperbole off the table!! It serves no purpose. I would suggest most of the reactions have been done out of an abundance of caution until we can get everyone vaccinated, even if some of the reactions were late or even not well thought out. Hardly hysteria!
 

Roger830

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And yesterday there was an exponential rise in Covid 19 cases --- just not in your country


https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/01/india-covid-daily-coronavirus-cases-pass-400000-for-first-time.html
Back in September at India's prior peak, there were less than 100,000 cases per day, which apparently was too low for a country with a population of about 1.4 billion.
So nature in is cruel way is now extracting it's toll of 400,000 or more per day. Nobody knows the death count.
 

AJCts411

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Hysteria? Really?? That characterization sounds more like a political bias or personal resentment for not being able to travel, than a statement of facts. Hysteria is what is happening in India, for good reason there. That doesn't describe what is happening here, IMO.

I live in Ontario, too, where we are currently still experiencing over 3500 new cases per day. While it finally seems to have peaked, that is more than the peak of the second wave in January and almost ten times the peak in the original peak in April/May 2020. We have just brought in the military to open up a number of military field hospitals to help keep the ICUs from becoming overrun. We have enough ICU units so far, but are critically short on trained ICU nursing staff.

We are seeing higher positivity rates here due to the variants that are accounting for a significant number of the new cases. It is also not just the elderly, but also the younger people who are getting it this time around. This is happening right across the country. Even places like Nova Scotia and Nunavut, who have managed to mostly control cases up to now, are experiencing record case numbers.


Let's try and keep the hyperbole off the table!! It serves no purpose. I would suggest most of the reactions have been done out of an abundance of caution until we can get everyone vaccinated, even if some of the reactions were late or even not well thought out. Hardly hysteria!
I agree to keeping the hyperbole off the table. But unfortunately it is not. The politicians and media is using fear mongering, both Provincial and Federal. A few examples, Reads one article quoting a government mouth piece regarding the land crossing rules. First is says over 150,000 nonessential crossed the land boarder into Canada and (named) 3 busiest entry points is Ontario. Avoiding hotel incarceration was the next point. Then a few sentences down And dozens flew to the USA to avoid mandatory hotel incarceration. So the flying problem that the fear mongering is not 150K it's 26. AND it does not clarify, you have to have a negative test to enter USA! AND When entering Canada, you have to have a negative test AND a 14 day quarantine plan! Now let look to Ontario numbers, exclude the GTA and what do you have? Does this LOW number for a 99.75 survivable covid justify gaurds on the eastern and western fronts, our provincial boarders? Let look at the hospitals in Ontario, where a bad bus crash would over whelm the system. And why was the system not expanded to keep pace with the magic models? And the field hospitals, why not, a good solution for the temporary increase, and use less experienced, easy to train care givers, and why is this a negative? I really like the old/younger fear mongering...again from an parrot article, first fewer older are being treated...because of vaccinations it point out...then danger danger, more young are being treated, missing the comparison is ratio, NOT that the older who have been vaccinated are not coming to hospital in as great a number. Fear mongering, hyperbole sorry most by a government and a media parroting the party line, politicans that want more votes and want to appear as if they are doing something to get reelected. So yes no more hyperbole!
 

CanuckTravlr

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I agree to keeping the hyperbole off the table. But unfortunately it is not. The politicians and media is using fear mongering, both Provincial and Federal. A few examples, Reads one article quoting a government mouth piece regarding the land crossing rules. First is says over 150,000 nonessential crossed the land boarder into Canada and (named) 3 busiest entry points is Ontario. Avoiding hotel incarceration was the next point. Then a few sentences down And dozens flew to the USA to avoid mandatory hotel incarceration. So the flying problem that the fear mongering is not 150K it's 26. AND it does not clarify, you have to have a negative test to enter USA! AND When entering Canada, you have to have a negative test AND a 14 day quarantine plan! Now let look to Ontario numbers, exclude the GTA and what do you have? Does this LOW number for a 99.75 survivable covid justify gaurds on the eastern and western fronts, our provincial boarders? Let look at the hospitals in Ontario, where a bad bus crash would over whelm the system. And why was the system not expanded to keep pace with the magic models? And the field hospitals, why not, a good solution for the temporary increase, and use less experienced, easy to train care givers, and why is this a negative? I really like the old/younger fear mongering...again from an parrot article, first fewer older are being treated...because of vaccinations it point out...then danger danger, more young are being treated, missing the comparison is ratio, NOT that the older who have been vaccinated are not coming to hospital in as great a number. Fear mongering, hyperbole sorry most by a government and a media parroting the party line, politicans that want more votes and want to appear as if they are doing something to get reelected. So yes no more hyperbole!
You agree that hyperbole should be off the table, then you go into a litany of statements, without a single source reference. Who said it? What media outlet? Which government official from which department? Provide some references! I don't disagree with everything you have said, but it is hard to discuss something when it just seems to be a dozen lines of regurgitated personal opinion, with no supporting facts. I at least stated and gave a link to my source. Your comments just come across as anger or petulance at not being able to go about your normal business.

Without any source references, it is just your opinion, but some of what you state is obviously false or exaggerated even without further research. Unfortunately, that then calls into question the veracity of everything else you have said. For instance, your comment that the hospitals would be overwhelmed by a bad bus crash? Really?? I think that is a good example of hyperbole. Yet you blame the media for fear-mongering.

Could you explain how a bus crash, with likely fewer than 100 people involved (even if it was two buses involved), would overwhelm our hospital system? Not everyone in that crash would need ICU-level care. In normal times in Ontario there are between 20 to 25 thousand hospital beds and 1,750 to 2,000 ICU beds. Some of those are ideally held back for other needs, not just for Covid-19 cases. None of that includes the field hospitals. And who said the field hospitals were a bad thing?




Quite frankly, I really don't understand your point, other than you seem to be upset at having to make some short-term sacrifices, just like the rest of us! Or did I forget maybe you are special and should be exempt? Or maybe I don't understand that the whole pandemic is fake news and people aren't really suffering or dying? Enlighten me.
 
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Fried_shrimp

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Let's try and keep the hyperbole off the table!! It serves no purpose. I would suggest most of the reactions have been done out of an abundance of caution until we can get everyone vaccinated, even if some of the reactions were late or even not well thought out. Hardly hysteria!
And for those who do not wish to be vaccinated?
 

Fried_shrimp

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You agree that hyperbole should be off the table, then you go into a litany of statements, without a single source reference. Who said it? What media outlet? Which government official from which department? Provide some references! I don't disagree with everything you have said, but it is hard to discuss something when it just seems to be a dozen lines of regurgitated personal opinion, with no supporting facts. I at least stated and gave a link to my source. Your comments just come across as anger or petulance at not being able to go about your normal business.

Without any source references, it is just your opinion, but some of what you state is obviously false or exaggerated even without further research. Unfortunately, that then calls into question the veracity of everything else you have said. For instance, your comment that the hospitals would be overwhelmed by a bad bus crash? Really?? I think that is a good example of hyperbole. Yet you blame the media for fear-mongering.

Could you explain how a bus crash, with likely fewer than 100 people involved (even if it was two buses involved), would overwhelm our hospital system? Not everyone in that crash would need ICU-level care. In normal times in Ontario there are between 20 to 25 thousand hospital beds and 1,750 to 2,000 ICU beds. Some of those are ideally held back for other needs, not just for Covid-19 cases. None of that includes the field hospitals. And who said the field hospitals were a bad thing?




Quite frankly, I really don't understand your point, other than you seem to be upset at having to make some short-term sacrifices, just like the rest of us! Or did I forget maybe you are special and should be exempt? Or maybe I don't understand that the whole pandemic is fake news and people aren't really suffering or dying? Enlighten me.
Why should some have to sacrifice for the fear of others? If you haven't noticed, people having been suffering and dying since the beginning of mankind and will continue until the end of mankind. If you want, I can post sources for this common knowledge fact though if you'd like. Covid is just one of a million ways to die. What irritates me is that prior to this, people would go to work or visit family and friends while having the flu, not caring really if they gave it to others, and many of those people died as well (average of 20-30,000 in the US every year for at least the last hundred years). Now, just because the numbers are a little higher, the world must stop in it's tracks? We all must live in fear because a few folks want to live their lives that way? To me, no. I've got just as good a chance of dying driving on the road as I do from dying from Covid and that doesn't keep me from driving daily so I won't sacrifice for this virus either. If it takes me, it takes me. The only guarantee in life is death anyway and it's just one of a million ways to go.
 

CanuckTravlr

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And for those who do not wish to be vaccinated?
We don't need 100% immunization to reach "herd immunity" and effectively stop the spread of the virus. In any case, while anti-vaxxers in Canada do exist, for whatever reason(s) they seem to be far more rare than seems to be the case in the USA.
 

davidvel

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Why should some have to sacrifice for the fear of others? If you haven't noticed, people having been suffering and dying since the beginning of mankind and will continue until the end of mankind. If you want, I can post sources for this common knowledge fact though if you'd like. Covid is just one of a million ways to die. What irritates me is that prior to this, people would go to work or visit family and friends while having the flu, not caring really if they gave it to others, and many of those people died as well (average of 20-30,000 in the US every year for at least the last hundred years). Now, just because the numbers are a little higher, the world must stop in it's tracks? We all must live in fear because a few folks want to live their lives that way? To me, no. I've got just as good a chance of dying driving on the road as I do from dying from Covid and that doesn't keep me from driving daily so I won't sacrifice for this virus either. If it takes me, it takes me. The only guarantee in life is death anyway and it's just one of a million ways to go.
The death rate for COVID is exponentially higher than influenza. You must be a very poor driver or live near many bad ones. There are annually about 30-40K deaths from auto crashes each year in the U.S. There have been about 500,000 covid deaths in a year.
 
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bluehende

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Why should some have to sacrifice for the fear of others? If you haven't noticed, people having been suffering and dying since the beginning of mankind and will continue until the end of mankind. If you want, I can post sources for this common knowledge fact though if you'd like. Covid is just one of a million ways to die. What irritates me is that prior to this, people would go to work or visit family and friends while having the flu, not caring really if they gave it to others, and many of those people died as well (average of 20-30,000 in the US every year for at least the last hundred years). Now, just because the numbers are a little higher, the world must stop in it's tracks? We all must live in fear because a few folks want to live their lives that way? To me, no. I've got just as good a chance of dying driving on the road as I do from dying from Covid and that doesn't keep me from driving daily so I won't sacrifice for this virus either. If it takes me, it takes me. The only guarantee in life is death anyway and it's just one of a million ways to go.
The very very tired covid/flu comparison.
 

amycurl

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It's amazing to me that we ever passed drunk driving laws in this country. I mean, we should all have the right to drink, get behind the wheel of a car, and put the lives of ourselves and others at risk. Let those that fear being hit by a drunk driver stay home or walk, amirite?!?
 

T-Dot-Traveller

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Hello All
We have seen that covid has climbed exponentially, now charts show the the decline is also exponential. Think of a bell curve with long tails.
Interesting article -I wonder if the math applies to - exponential hysteria.
[IMO - Canada has been in exponential growth of hysteria for weeks over Covid 19 variants of concern]
Hysteria? Really?? That characterization sounds more like a political bias or personal resentment for not being able to travel, than a statement of facts. Hysteria... That doesn't describe what is happening here, IMO.I live in Ontario, .......

Let's try and keep the hyperbole off the table!! It serves no purpose. I would suggest most of the reactions have been done out of an abundance of caution until we can get everyone vaccinated, even if some of the reactions were late or even not well thought out. Hardly hysteria!
I agree to keeping the hyperbole off the table. But unfortunately it is not. The politicians and media is using fear mongering, both Provincial and Federal. A few examples, .......
I believe in Ontario & Canada - the media - the public health experts and our political leaders have displayed :

1)- a shortage of critical thinking skills
2)- SILO thinking
3)-an over reliance on "scientific" mathematical modelling that ignores ALL the social science knowledge of predictable human behavior.

Here are some recent news articles :








Manitoba


The Ontario Covid 19 Advisory Science Table recommendations include a stated goal of controlling mobility in our 3rd lockdown .

The Ontario government for some reason decided this meant many outdoor activities (tennis-golf-pickleball- outdoor basketball)- boating on lakes) should not be allowed, and participants subject to fines ; even though the science panel felt outdoor activity is safer than indoor.

The Canadian media has exhibited very little critical thinking or analysis.IMO-their main goal seems to be to get eyeballs on any
scary Covid 19 story that will gain them additional clicks.

IMO - there will always be another variant with Covid 19 (viruses mutate)
IMO - Our Canadian leadership would be best to focus on controlling Covid 19 hot spots through effective vaccine distribution ;and stop wasting resources on control of mobility and safe outdoor activities.

I do hope that the concept of exponential decline in Covid 19 after an exponential rise has validity ,and hope
increases in vaccination rates help advance the timeline.
**************
FYI - I did vote for the MPP in my Riding that is a back-bencher with the current Ontario Government.

FYI -In the last federal election I wrote in Kyle Lowry - as felt his unselfish team play best represented the Canadian values I wished to see in Ottawa.
I continue to feel that (spoiling my ballot in that manner) was a better choice than any of the other party leadership options.
 
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Fried_shrimp

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The very very tired covid/flu comparison.
Just as tiring as hearing people tell me I have to wear a mask because of their fears and safety. I care nothing about their safety (that's their responsibility) and I refuse to live for someone else's fear. Not to mention that the flu has killed MILLIONS more than Covid but you seem to care nothing about that. So I'll continue to talk about my very, very tired but accurate comparison.
 

Brett

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It's amazing to me that we ever passed drunk driving laws in this country. I mean, we should all have the right to drink, get behind the wheel of a car, and put the lives of ourselves and others at risk. Let those that fear being hit by a drunk driver stay home or walk, amirite?!?
U R rite ;)
 

CanuckTravlr

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Just as tiring as hearing people tell me I have to wear a mask because of their fears and safety. I care nothing about their safety (that's their responsibility) and I refuse to live for someone else's fear. Not to mention that the flu has killed MILLIONS more than Covid but you seem to care nothing about that. So I'll continue to talk about my very, very tired but accurate comparison.
The fact that you care about nobody but yourself is quite evident, even if you hadn't stated it so succinctly. The idea that you think comparing the cumulative number of deaths from the flu over the last century or more, to the number of deaths from Covid-19 in just over a year, is somehow a valid comparison, is almost laughable. I will agree that your avatar is a perfect choice!! :(
 
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AJCts411

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Quite frankly, I really don't understand your point, other than you seem to be upset at having to make some short-term sacrifices, just like the rest of us! Or did I forget maybe you are special and should be exempt? Or maybe I don't understand that the whole pandemic is fake news and people aren't really suffering or dying? Enlighten me.
Standard defense of the undefenseable..show me the proof, while party line hyperbole goes unchallenged. As soon as you add your foot notes...
 
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CanuckTravlr

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Standard defense of the undefenseable..show me the proof, while party line hyperbole goes unchallenged. As soon as you add your foot notes...
Exactly. That seems to be the defence you are employing. Answer a question with name calling, demand that I provide proof, but don't actually provide any yourself. So typical of the alt-right. Perhaps you have problems with reading comprehension. I provided three different sources in my post. You have yet to provide any, but I really didn't expect any. It's easier just to repeat the silly tropes.
 
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Fried_shrimp

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The fact that you care about nobody but yourself is quite evident, even if you hadn't stated it so succinctly. The idea that you think comparing the number of deaths from the flu over the last century or more, to the number of deaths from Covid-19 in just over a year, is somehow a valid comparison, is almost laughable. Your avatar name describes you perfectly!! :(
And if you think it is someone else's job to protect you instead of you protecting yourself, you are part of the problem. And you are completely incorrect. There are several people I care about, my wife, kids, and my friends. You nor the rest of the world fall into that camp though. What you consider laughable is truly a moot point. I find the fear that people live in and the expectation of others to live in their fear laughable as well so please, continue living in fear if you wish while I continue traveling in a manner I see fit, with or without your approval.
 

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Says it all.

I wonder if your attitude changes when someone with your attitude harms a member of your family.
If that ever came to be (huge if by the way, about as big an if as dying from this virus), I'll take care of the issue. It needn't worry you.
 

Luanne

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And if you think it is someone else's job to protect you instead of you protecting yourself, you are part of the problem. And you are completely incorrect. There are several people I care about, my wife, kids, and my friends. You nor the rest of the world fall into that camp though. What you consider laughable is truly a moot point. I find the fear that people live in and the expectation of others to live in their fear laughable as well so please, continue living in fear if you wish while I continue traveling in a manner I see fit, with or without your approval.
Good bye "guest". Your posts are not informational or amusing.
 

Fried_shrimp

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Good bye "guest". Your posts are not informational or amusing.
I have posted many informational posts (though you may not have seen them or ignored them). It is not my intention to be "amusing" as I am not a comedian. I do wish the moderators would step in though and do something about these posts attacking people for their beliefs. I, on the other hand, have attacked no one but simply expressed my views on the subject.
 
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