COVID-19 East vs. West Coast Incredible Differences

[davidvel]

So I was crunching some numbers at the COVID-19 Stats site and found what to me was a startling difference between the West Coast and East Coast.

Timezone	% of US Deaths	% of US Population
West / Mountain	7.2%	19%
Central/East	91.6%	80%
Hawaii/Alaska/Territories	1.2%	1%

A lot of this is likely skewed by the giant NY numbers, but I also wonder if there were more deaths earlier in CA from COVID that were not known to be COVID, due to lack of testing. (Some are now suggesting there is evidence it hit here earlier than previously known.)

Any other thoughts?

 

[TravelTime]

It might be better to separate out the numbers by West/Mountain, Central, East and other. I would be curious what Central looks like by itself and I assume East would have an even bigger percentage of deaths vs the population.

 

[DrQ]

What skews the numbers further is that ~50% of the deaths ar concentrated in nursing homes in 3-4 states, with NY, NJ an CT being in the forefront which is more of a factor of an elderly population with relatives being located in the NE United States.

 

[davidvel]

It might be better to separate out the numbers by West/Mountain, Central, East and other. I would be curious what Central looks like by itself and I assume East would have an even bigger percentage of deaths vs the population.

You are correct. The east dominates the skewed percentage.

Timezone	% of US Deaths	% of US Population
West	5.05%	14%
Mountain	2.15%	5.5%
Central	12.3%	33%
East	79.3%	47%
Hawaii/Alaska/Territories	1.2%	1%

 

[davidvel]

What skews the numbers further is that ~50% of the deaths ar concentrated in nursing homes in 3-4 states, with NY, NJ an CT being in the forefront which is more of a factor of an elderly population with relatives being located in the NE United States.

Yes, the statistics are bearing out that concentrations in close quarters, coupled with age, obviously lead to bad outcomes.

 

[Panina]

What skews the numbers further is that ~50% of the deaths ar concentrated in nursing homes in 3-4 states, with NY, NJ an CT being in the forefront which is more of a factor of an elderly population with relatives being located in the NE United States.

Where did you find the %. I believed it was high but couldn’t find the info.

 

[DrQ]

Where did you find the %. I believed it was high but couldn’t find the info.

I was just SWAGing the %, but the #'s are striking. It was in USA Today

 

[TravelTime]

I have heard the 50% number many times in the media.

 

[DavidnRobin]

The # of Covid-19 related deaths is being underestimated (purposely) - but will be observed when eventually compared to seasonal deaths. These under-reported deaths are mainly from SNFs (Skilled Nursing Facilities) and during at-home Hospice care. There are numerous numbers of this uncounted deaths

Our family can account for one supposed non-Covid death during at-home Hospice because the illness began (early February) before Covid supposedly started in Santa Clara County. It turns out was here before early February, but no test to determine if Covid or not. How convenient...

Let’s protest because we can’t go to the beach... right....


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[Rjbeach2003]

It's hard to capture all the deaths because of lack of testing. Most states only tested people with symptoms, didn't test people who didn't report symptoms or died before the virus was being taken seriously.
I just looked at the number of seasonal flu deaths in the 19-20 flu season at the CDC and they give a range of 29-62,000.

But one thing is, I don't ever remember hospitals being this crowded, hearing of being out of vital support material etc.

Unfortunately we are beginning to have what may be a bigger problem, armed terrorists (yes I mean terrorists), trying to intimidate responsible elected officials who are taking their job seriously to look out for the health of their citizens. Most of us continue to be willing to play it safe. We know that this isn't a football game where Just after half time start throwing long bombs with short armed QB's and received with clubs for hands, but hoping for a miracle.

 

[DavidnRobin]

Here’s a comparison for those that keep equating the Flu to Coronavirus.

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[DrQ]

Anytime I hear someone compare the death rate of COVID-19 to seasonal flu, my response is:
When did we cancel school, sporting events, concerts, etc seasonal flu. Not even back in 1968.

We just cannot compare the numbers because the transmission was dampened by these efforts.

 

[CalGalTraveler]

One thing that we don't know yet that hasn't been talked about:

Is Covid-19 like the flu that goes away once one recovers?

or is it more like HIV or Chicken Pox that remains in your system but is tamped down with drugs (HIV), or becomes dormant like chicken pox and can re-emerge years later as shingles?

I hope it is not like the latter but there is so much we don't know about this virus.

 

[DrQ]

One thing that we don't know yet that hasn't been talked about:

Is Covid-19 like the flu that goes away once one recovers?

or is it more like HIV or Chicken Pox that remains in your system but is tamped down with drugs (HIV), or becomes dormant like chicken pox and can re-emerge years later as shingles?

That's a good question. Whereas influenza seems to be confined to the respiratory system, COVID-19 seems to do its damage in the bloodstream. It looks like it really puts the entire body through the wringer.

 

[isisdave]

Here’s a comparison for those that keep equating the Flu to Coronavirus.

And the flu numbers are for the whole year, or at least the season, roughly October to April. The Covid-10 numbers are for about six or seven weeks.

I'm guessing 100k by August 1 with current level of SIP, and sooner if it's significantly reduced.

 

[Roger830]

Early on, most of CT cases were in Fairfield and New Haven counties where multiple commuter trains run to Grand Central Station.

Also New Jersey Transit brings commuters into Penn Station.

Within the city, the subway jams with people sitting and standing.

In the West, commuters are nicely social distanced in their vehicle.

Perhaps there is a clue here as to why the northeast states have such a huge number of cases.

 

[DrQ]

Georgia health officials report 1,000 new coronavirus cases

Georgia Department of Public Health said Friday afternoon that there were 27,134 confirmed coronavirus cases in the state, up from Thursday afternoon's total of about 26,000 cases.

www.dailymail.co.uk

You want a side of fries with that COVID-19?

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

Georgia health officials report 1,000 new coronavirus cases

Georgia Department of Public Health said Friday afternoon that there were 27,134 confirmed coronavirus cases in the state, up from Thursday afternoon's total of about 26,000 cases.

www.dailymail.co.uk

You want a side of fries with that COVID-19?

(Black humor) - You mean - a side of dies with that COVID-19?

 

[Ken555]

Hard to compare when we don’t have accurate data. This is one way to have a better concept of the true calamity we are enduring. And remember the first wave hasn’t even finished...we still have a significant lack of PPE, testing supplies, and major inefficiencies in our response as compared to other countries.

—-

U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported, C.D.C. Data Suggests

U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported, C.D.C. Data Suggests (Published 2020)

In seven hard-hit states, total deaths are nearly 50 percent higher than normal, according to new C.D.C. statistics, suggesting that the virus has killed far more people than the number in official counts.

www.nytimes.com

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[Ken555]

Here’s a comparison for those that keep equating the Flu to Coronavirus.

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The article your image is from is quite interesting and I think everyone should read it. It is especially important to realize the distinction between the CDC flu death estimates vs actual C19 deaths. The numbers we hear (and which were stated on multiple TUG threads in the last month) are the flu death estimates, not the actual number.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/02/theres-more-accurate-way-compare-coronavirus-deaths-flu/

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[DavidnRobin]

Keep an eye on IL6 targeting therapies for CV19
(Peer reviewed)

https://www.cell.com/pb-assets/products/coronavirus/CELL_CELL-D-20-00985.pdf

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[bluehende]

Nice paper. Thanks for posting.

 

[Old Hickory]

Do you feel good about all the guessing that the experts at the NIA, CDC and WHO do to inform you about and protect you from a deadly virus/disease?

 

[Ken555]

Seems like we are in the period where it’s acceptable to blame the scientists.


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