I've tried to put my Thinking Hat on, to figure this issue out, and to make some predictions for our CY 2021 maintenance fees.
My assessment (in the case of Desert Springs Villas, and my knowledge of that owner base, and HOA Board (and their historical decision making):
(1) I think MVC is going to provide the HOA Boards at their resorts with leadership, in terms of budgeting, and anticipating the known/unknown. This is one of those moments when I think we should be pleased that we own with Marriott, and no matter how much we may like/dislike what Marriott suggests (and, I mean Marriott International as the First Tier, and Marriott Vacation Club, as the Second Tier), I think there are few to none, lodging/hospitality companies in the world, with the knowledge/skill/history of successful performance, than Marriott International, when it comes to responding to a disabling (socially and economically) worldwide event. It is Marriott's track record, in this regard, that makes Marriott International stock, in my opinion, a "BUY," at present. I'd expect that Marriott Vacation Club will take the strategic decisions/principles/plans that Marriott International makes, and apply them to the unique characteristics of Marriott Vacation Club (and timeshare);
(2) I expect that the DSV II HOA Board and MVC will be conservative about CY 2021 in terms of occupancy, revenue from resort operations, and liberal in planning for expenses, particularly staffing, insurance (remember, Marriott paid for health insurance for all furloughed employees), and bad debt from defaulting owners;
(3) I'd expect that the DSV II Board will plan for intensive staffing, in terms of housekeeping, loss prevention (or whomever may be responsible for monitoring social distancing), and Front Office Staff, who, for example, at DSV II, are making pool reservations for owners and guests, in two hour blocks of time (think about how much work that is, and how labor intensive monitoring that, will be at the many pools on the DSV campus);
(4) If DSV continues to socially distance guests at the DSV pools, as they have, I believe that that will have a negative influence on occupancy at DSV, as I don't know many owners who go to DSV, without the intent to spend some time at the pools, particularly during the hottest times of the year;
(5) Given the number of unemployed Americans, and the potential, if the incidence of Covid 19 continues to climb, that there will be a substantial number of owners who walk away from their ownership. The timing of this is very bad for the HOA, as by the time the HOA has an opportunity to put a lien on the timeshare week, they will have lost the opportunity to derive rental income on that timeshare week/usage; hence, lots of bad debt. I see this as having, perhaps, the greatest potential to collect whatever additional revenue that they can, from the owners who pay their 2021 maintenance fees, to cover the bad debt;
(6) Income and expenses at DSV will be influenced by governmental mandates for travel and tourism, based on the location of Covid 19 surges;
(7) I do not expect that if a vaccine is released in 2021 to mitigate Covid 19, that that will have any bearing on the traveling public's behavior;
(8) I think that MVC timeshare owners are more likely to vacation/travel, than non-owners (e.g. transient guests, renters);
(9) I expect that Marriott International and MVC will continue to be a leader in the lodging and hospitality industry, in Covid 19 mitigation, at MVC resorts.
(10) There will be some relationship between the physical size and maintenance/energy intensive assets, and operational expenses. For example, Marriott's Custom House, which is relatively self-contained, and without a lot of land to maintain (unlike Desert Springs Villas), I expect, will have lower operational expenses, than, for example, DSV.
Hence, I'm planning on a $200.00 increase, per week, for our DSV II timeshares, in CY 2021.
I may be entirely wrong, here, or partially wrong/right, these are my educated (close to 35 years of multiple weeks of Marriott ownership), best guesses.