Coronavirus Cases Are Accelerating Across U.S.

[davidvel]

Cognative dissonance.

If the average age dropped by 20 years, but the number of severe cases (hospitalizations) are sharply rising; that implies that young people are not a "immune" as they are touted to be. . . .

Without knowing the age of those cases, this claim/logic is unsupported. If the average age of "severe cases (hospitalizations)" is dropping proportionately, then this would be true. I'd be interested in seeing such comparisons in a chart.

 

[Ken555]

A friend just sent me this video, which I think others may appreciate here. It’s shows why masks work, and does so with various scientific experiments. If you’re at all concerned about masks, please watch it, and if appropriate send to your family and friends.

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[Brett]

He also said:

And

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probably some people are hoping Dr. Fauci will say - "stop the testing" !

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

Without knowing the age of those cases, this claim/logic is unsupported. If the average age of "severe cases (hospitalizations)" is dropping proportionately, then this would be true. I'd be interested in seeing such comparisons in a chart.

Still cognitive dissonance. Consider:

If admission went up 4X, and the previous admissions were mainly older people, and the percentages among all age groups remained the same; then the average age would have remained the same.

But the average age has dropped by 15-20 years. Assuming that these are positive testing case, and not hospitalized cases (the most optimistic scenario), then that means that a vastly high percent of younger people have become COVID-19 positive. Even if (the most optimistic case) they get no sicker, on average, than in the past, they will still form a big bulge in hospitalized cases, simply because of the large number of positive cases in the younger demographic, as compared to the past.

To me, this is basic math. . .

 

[davidvel]

Still cognitive dissonance. Consider:

If admission went up 4X, and the previous admissions were mainly older people, and the percentages among all age groups remained the same; then the average age would have remained the same.

But the average age has dropped by 15-20 years. Assuming that these are positive testing case, and not hospitalized cases (the most optimistic scenario), then that means that a vastly high percent of younger people have become COVID-19 positive. Even if (the most optimistic case) they get no sicker, on average, than in the past, they will still form a big bulge in hospitalized cases, simply because of the large number of positive cases in the younger demographic, as compared to the past.

To me, this is basic math. . .

It may be math, but I haven't seen any facts supporting your assertions that:

- admissions are up 4x
-the percentages (of hospitalizations) among all age groups remained the same

And there would be no big bulge, if they are still at extremely low (<.001) hospitalization rates.

As for your continued personal comments, using the term cognitive dissonance, you should learn what terms mean before you use them to try to attack people. My beliefs and values are pretty consistent, Sir.

 

[PigsDad]

Without knowing the age of those cases, this claim/logic is unsupported. If the average age of "severe cases (hospitalizations)" is dropping proportionately, then this would be true. I'd be interested in seeing such comparisons in a chart.

Yes, it would be interesting to see the comparisons. Another factor that might be in play and make it harder for a simple comparison is if people are more likely to be admitted now vs. a couple months ago. There have been a couple of articles I have seen go by that stated earlier in the pandemic, doctors were instructing those that didn't have severe symptoms to stay home and be monitored there. Now, they stated doctors are a little more likely to advise their patients to be admitted to the hospital, since they now know better what early treatments may help their patients. We are also seeing the length of hospital stay shorten slightly, which would make sense if people with slightly less severe cases are being admitted.

Kurt

 

[bluehende]

It may be math, but I haven't seen any facts supporting your assertions that:

- admissions are up 4x
-the percentages (of hospitalizations) among all age groups remained the same

And there would be no big bulge, if they are still at extremely low (<.001) hospitalization rates.

As for your continued personal comments, using the term cognitive dissonance, you should learn what terms mean before you use them to try to attack people. My beliefs and values are pretty consistent, Sir.

In post 489 I posted data directly from the Texas Department of Health showing an increase of 4x in hospitalizations over the last 3 weeks.

As for your second bullet there are no numbers that show how and if the demographics of the new hospitalizations have changed. The assumption probably comes from Governor Abbott talking about the increase in cases is due to younger people testing positive.

 

[bluehende]

Ten out of the 12 hospitals in Texas' Rio Grande Valley are now full

"We are now at the point of grave concern," said the CEO of one hospital system in deep South Texas as local hospitals began diverting patients away from their emergency rooms amid a crush of COVID-19 infections.

www.texastribune.org

 

[TravelTime]

Has anyone been tracking the test positivity rate?

 

[DrQ]

My wife works in the medical field and one of the hats I wear at work is a systems analyst. Early on in all this (March), we (and everyone else) were looking for some kind of common trait that might connect a diverse group who have negative outcomes. It is easy to say the elderly, folks with specific chronic diseases (diabetes, high BP, etc), obese, etc. However, not all people in these categories become ill. Why? One of the commonalities is a low vitamin D count. Our body makes it naturally, but as we age, we make less of it. We also tend to spend less time out in the sun as we get older. Folks with the specific chronic diseases tend to have low absorption rates, or take meds that state to stay out of the sun. Could it be low vitamin D count leads to a higher rate of negative outcomes? My wife ran it by a few docs at her work in casual conversation as they were doing rounds. The result, we all take a vitamin D3 supplement now and spend more time out doors. A vitamin D supplement and spending more time outside has a low cost to benefit ratio, and the fact is it’s a good thing to do even if there were no COVID concerns.

Though I have not seen the data you mention, it’s nice to hear there is now corroborating data.

I have been hearing for a while that vitamin D deficiency was common in many of the severely ill. When you look up vitamin D dosage on Healthline:

What Vitamin D Dosage Is Best?

Vitamin D is important for optimal health, but many Americans are deficient. This article lets you know what dosage of vitamin D is best.

www.healthline.com

"Despite its importance, roughly 42% of people in the US have a vitamin D deficiency. This number rises to a staggering 82.1% of black people and 69.2% of Hispanic people"​

This seems to be tracking with what we have been seeing with bad outcomes of COVID-19 in the younger population.

I'm convinced. I'm going to add vitamin D3 (2000 IU) to our vitamin C (1600 mg) and zinc (30 mg) supplements.

 

[Brett]

I have been hearing for a while that vitamin D deficiency was common in many of the severely ill. When you look up vitamin D dosage on Healthline:

What Vitamin D Dosage Is Best?

Vitamin D is important for optimal health, but many Americans are deficient. This article lets you know what dosage of vitamin D is best.

www.healthline.com

"Despite its importance, roughly 42% of people in the US have a vitamin D deficiency. This number rises to a staggering 82.1% of black people and 69.2% of Hispanic people"​

This seems to be tracking with what we have been seeing with bad outcomes of COVID-19 in the younger population.

I'm convinced. I'm going to add vitamin D3 (2000 IU) to our vitamin C (1600 mg) and zinc (30 mg) supplements.

it may also depend on your DNA

"The stretch of six genes seems to increase the risk of severe illness from the coronavirus.

Scientists don’t yet know why this particular segment increases the risk of severe illness from the coronavirus. But the new findings which were posted online on Friday and have not yet been published in a scientific journal, show how some clues to modern health stem from ancient history. "

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/04/health/coronavirus-neanderthals.html

 

[bluehende]

Has anyone been tracking the test positivity rate?

With the talk of Texas here is the Dept of Health graph

 

[geist1223]

COVID19 the gift that keeps on giving.

 

[bbodb1]

People are the gift that keeps on giving.

Suggested fix...

 

[bluehende]

Arizona positivity rate is the pcr test. With a screenshot you cannot hover over and get the number for the last two weels.....they are jun 28 22% july 5 30%


edited to add a link

AZDHS | COVID-19 Data - Home

Working to monitor, prevent and control diseases in Arizona through education, immunization and research.

www.azdhs.gov

then Lab testing button

 

["Roger"]

 

[bluehende]

Has anyone been tracking the test positivity rate?

Upon farther research I came across this page that has all the testing and positivity data from the us and by state.

Daily Testing Trends in Usa - Johns Hopkins

See daily changes in tests performed and positivity rates in Usa

coronavirus.jhu.edu

 

[klpca]

Upon farther research I came across this page that has all the testing and positivity data from the us and by state.

Daily Testing Trends in Usa - Johns Hopkins

See daily changes in tests performed and positivity rates in Usa

coronavirus.jhu.edu

Thanks for posting that. It was a fun data dive with some really interesting surprises - both high positivity and low positivity.

 

[Cornell]

Upon farther research I came across this page that has all the testing and positivity data from the us and by state.

Daily Testing Trends in Usa - Johns Hopkins

See daily changes in tests performed and positivity rates in Usa

coronavirus.jhu.edu

Yes, this is super interesting.

 

[Fredflintstone]

My wife works in the medical field and one of the hats I wear at work is a systems analyst. Early on in all this (March), we (and everyone else) were looking for some kind of common trait that might connect a diverse group who have negative outcomes. It is easy to say the elderly, folks with specific chronic diseases (diabetes, high BP, etc), obese, etc. However, not all people in these categories become ill. Why? One of the commonalities is a low vitamin D count. Our body makes it naturally, but as we age, we make less of it. We also tend to spend less time out in the sun as we get older. Folks with the specific chronic diseases tend to have low absorption rates, or take meds that state to stay out of the sun. Could it be low vitamin D count leads to a higher rate of negative outcomes? My wife ran it by a few docs at her work in casual conversation as they were doing rounds. The result, we all take a vitamin D3 supplement now and spend more time out doors. A vitamin D supplement and spending more time outside has a low cost to benefit ratio, and the fact is it’s a good thing to do even if there were no COVID concerns.

Though I have not seen the data you mention, it’s nice to hear there is now corroborating data.

Funny you mention Vitamin D. About 10 years ago a Cancer specialist friend I know told me that there is a correlation between Cancer rates and low Vitamin D. It seems Vitamin D is critical to resistance to more things than just Cancer.


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[davidvel]

Very old people cooped up indoors at death's door likely have very low vitamin d levels, and also are the most susceptible to death by C19 for reasons unrelated to vitamin d. May be correlated but no causation.

But that won't make me stop taking vitamin d.

 

[LMD]

I have been hearing for a while that vitamin D deficiency was common in many of the severely ill. When you look up vitamin D dosage on Healthline:

What Vitamin D Dosage Is Best?

Vitamin D is important for optimal health, but many Americans are deficient. This article lets you know what dosage of vitamin D is best.

www.healthline.com

"Despite its importance, roughly 42% of people in the US have a vitamin D deficiency. This number rises to a staggering 82.1% of black people and 69.2% of Hispanic people"​

This seems to be tracking with what we have been seeing with bad outcomes of COVID-19 in the younger population.

I'm convinced. I'm going to add vitamin D3 (2000 IU) to our vitamin C (1600 mg) and zinc (30 mg) supplements.

I too have read this in many different places. I live in FL and am low in Vit D....go figure. I have been taking 5000IU with K2 since the pandemic started along with the C and Zinc

 

[bbodb1]

Did a "Better Living Through Chemistry" convention start this week?

 

[Cornell]

Did a "Better Living Through Chemistry" convention start this week?

(shhhhh!! I'm working on a pretty big project at work for a vitamin manufacturer -- this discussion is giving me some job security).

 

[DannyTS]

A lot of people are focusing now on the positivity rate as the latest scary statistic. But to me it just suggests that the contact tracers may be getting better of what they do and that more people who were in contact with Covid are being sent to be tested rather than based on just symptoms that can be common for many other illnesses and conditions.

Let's take Arizona for example. The tests are not being done randomly. A huge part of the population is not being tested so a higher positivity rate does not mean that there are more sick people and we just do not know about it. If you are digging more and get more gold on a vein it does not mean that there is more gold outside that area.

This is an article that discusses on June 18th the increase of contact tracing in AZ

Arizona Gov Expands Contact Tracing in Face of Coronavirus Increase

Arizona Governor Doug Ducey announced Wednesday that a statewide contact tracing effort would be launched, along with other measures in response to the state's surge of COVID-19 cases.

www.newsweek.com