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Coronavirus Cases Are Accelerating Across U.S.

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DannyTS

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bluehende

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norway


Schools reopened apr 20 7 day average of deaths 1 or 0 in the last week us equivalent of 35

Italy



economy started reopening in early may
7 day average of 17 deaths a day US equivalent 85

Us average 511 with a three day holiday included in it
 

jme

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Didn't some also suspect that the end of the lock downs would bring a disaster of epic proportions?
I just do not see it in the graph above.

It's because the graph stops on July 4th. You're seeing trends, and granted, viruses in the past have followed trends as they progress,
but occasionally trends don't work out. So it's yet unknown in my book. Too many variables, including human behavior of late.
At the moment (and especially July 4th weekend, here and abroad, like London) the world is going insane
with "no fear & no personal responsibility", and that WILL have a definite effect on that graph.

There's been a lot of speculation and conjecture about what comes next, but no one I know can see the future.
I'm happy that you feel like you "see it", but neither you nor I know what's next.
Again, show me the new graph in a month to see if your prognostication comes true.
 
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Sapper

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An example. There is data (Indonesia retrospective data) that imply that if one has a high Vitamin D3 titre at the time of hospitalization, the odd of dying drop dramatically.

Causitive or merely a correlation? <Shrug> Would it hurt you to treat it as causitive? No. Is there a major push for taking Vitamin D3? NO.

My wife works in the medical field and one of the hats I wear at work is a systems analyst. Early on in all this (March), we (and everyone else) were looking for some kind of common trait that might connect a diverse group who have negative outcomes. It is easy to say the elderly, folks with specific chronic diseases (diabetes, high BP, etc), obese, etc. However, not all people in these categories become ill. Why? One of the commonalities is a low vitamin D count. Our body makes it naturally, but as we age, we make less of it. We also tend to spend less time out in the sun as we get older. Folks with the specific chronic diseases tend to have low absorption rates, or take meds that state to stay out of the sun. Could it be low vitamin D count leads to a higher rate of negative outcomes? My wife ran it by a few docs at her work in casual conversation as they were doing rounds. The result, we all take a vitamin D3 supplement now and spend more time out doors. A vitamin D supplement and spending more time outside has a low cost to benefit ratio, and the fact is it’s a good thing to do even if there were no COVID concerns.

Though I have not seen the data you mention, it’s nice to hear there is now corroborating data.
 

bbodb1

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All right @Brett - how do you know there are more cases out there today as opposed to more cases being found due to increased testing?

Again, this goes back to the need for more testing....
 

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When I inexplicably broke my hip about two and a half years ago, the *only* systemic issue they could find (and, trust me, they went full House on me trying to find something,) was low Vitamin D. (Granted, it was late December, and, no, I wasn't spending much time outdoors then.) While that didn't explain the hip at all (because my bone density was good, so it wasn't affecting calcium absorbtion,) it does mean that I've been taking mega-doses of Vitamin D for the past two and a half years (because no one's told me to stop, LOL!) I am keeping my fingers crossed that it has some other, anti-viral effects, too. We'll see.... *remains cautiously optimistic and am not, in any way, tempting the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing*
 

bbodb1

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When I inexplicably broke my hip about two and a half years ago, the *only* systemic issue they could find (and, trust me, they went full House on me trying to find something,) was low Vitamin D. (Granted, it was late December, and, no, I wasn't spending much time outdoors then.) While that didn't explain the hip at all (because my bone density was good, so it wasn't affecting calcium absorbtion,) it does mean that I've been taking mega-doses of Vitamin D for the past two and a half years (because no one's told me to stop, LOL!) I am keeping my fingers crossed that it has some other, anti-viral effects, too. We'll see.... *remains cautiously optimistic and am not, in any way, tempting the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing*
iu
 

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To really look at spread, look at the percentage of tests that come back positive. If you have low spread, and high testing, the percentage will come back pretty low, right?

Arizona's testing is coming back 25% positive. That's a terrifyingly high percentage. And that kind of high percentage is closely corelated to the rise in hospitalizations that are quickly overwhelming the health care system there.

To get off of the quarantine lists for some states, other states need to move below 10% positive testing. Many states in the South and West are well above this threshold. I think NY state is reviewing the list of other states' positivity rates every two weeks.
 

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DannyTS

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If people would stop getting COVID tests everything would be OK

“If you don’t test, you don’t have any cases"

(just kidding ;) )

July 6, 2020
View attachment 23082


The intensive care units (ICU) at four hospitals in the Tampa area were at maximum capacity over the weekend as the number of coronavirus cases in Florida continue to spike.

Other hospitals were nearing capacity.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/505959-four-tampa-area-hospitals-at-maximum-icu-capacity
From the article, can you please point out to the section where it says that the additional patients are there because of C19? I do not see it.
 

Ralph Sir Edward

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My wife works in the medical field and one of the hats I wear at work is a systems analyst. Early on in all this (March), we (and everyone else) were looking for some kind of common trait that might connect a diverse group who have negative outcomes. It is easy to say the elderly, folks with specific chronic diseases (diabetes, high BP, etc), obese, etc. However, not all people in these categories become ill. Why? One of the commonalities is a low vitamin D count. Our body makes it naturally, but as we age, we make less of it. We also tend to spend less time out in the sun as we get older. Folks with the specific chronic diseases tend to have low absorption rates, or take meds that state to stay out of the sun. Could it be low vitamin D count leads to a higher rate of negative outcomes? My wife ran it by a few docs at her work in casual conversation as they were doing rounds. The result, we all take a vitamin D3 supplement now and spend more time out doors. A vitamin D supplement and spending more time outside has a low cost to benefit ratio, and the fact is it’s a good thing to do even if there were no COVID concerns.

Though I have not seen the data you mention, it’s nice to hear there is now corroborating data.

Here's some papers to read.

Overview: https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/comment/vitamin-d-covid-19/

Detail Europe: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40520-020-01570-8

Detail Indonesia Study: https://emerginnova.com/patterns-of-covid19-mortality-and-vitamin-d-an-indonesian-study/

Video on Vitamin D research (non-COVID) BY UCSD (which holds an investigative drug research license with the FDA). Included because of the multiyear dose toxicity research.
https://ucsd.tv/search-details.aspx?showID=29079
 

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All right @Brett - how do you know there are more cases out there today as opposed to more cases being found due to increased testing?



1594056542353.png


this is the hospitalizations due to covid in tx over time. Sorry the screen shot did not bring the axes. It is from the Texas DOH if you want to view the whole thing. In the last 3 weeks the number have gone up about 4x. If there are no new cases then this virus has become 4 times more severe while the average age infected has gone down. I certainly hope not.
 

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View attachment 23083

this is the hospitalizations due to covid in tx over time. Sorry the screen shot did not bring the axes. It is from the Texas DOH if you want to view the whole thing. In the last 3 weeks the number have gone up about 4x. If there are no new cases then this virus has become 4 times more severe while the average age infected has gone down. I certainly hope not.
define "severe" in this context
 

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View attachment 23083

this is the hospitalizations due to covid in tx over time. Sorry the screen shot did not bring the axes. It is from the Texas DOH if you want to view the whole thing. In the last 3 weeks the number have gone up about 4x. If there are no new cases then this virus has become 4 times more severe while the average age infected has gone down. I certainly hope not.
source please
 

Ken555

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No matter how you look at the numbers, more is not good. We likely had significantly more cases than were counted (as I and others postulated on TUG back in March). It seems silly to me to even discuss the question if there are more than we are counting...of course there are!

15 states broke single-day coronavirus records this week

"Right now, if you look at the number of cases, it's quite disturbing. We're setting records, practically every day, of new cases in the numbers that are reported. That clearly is not the right direction," NIAID director Anthony Fauci told medical journal JAMA on Thursday.



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Better make your reservation quick....they are filling up fast.

Of course now you are changing the argument. I still stand by my statement. If the cases ar

e the same with a 4x increase in hospitalizations we have a problem. How do you explain that 4 times as many people are hospitalized now than a few weeks ago due to covid. And be honest and determine how long those extra beds will last at the current trend in cases and hospitalizations.
 

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actually, not obvious.
It seems a bit speculative on his/her part to suggest that the virus istelf has become 4x more severe. Perhaps, due to age or geographical area, more individuals have chosen to visit a hospital. :ponder:
 

bluehende

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actually, not obvious.
Focus on a word as usual. But no response to the fact that hospitalizations have gone up 4 fold in a few weeks. Use whatever word you choose to define a 4 fold increase in people in the hospital.

You posted the fl tables a few days ago. Look at them again and you will see this pattern also exists in FL.
'
 

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Focus on a word as usual. But no response to the fact that hospitalizations have gone up 4 fold in a few weeks. Use whatever word you choose to define a 4 fold increase in people in the hospital.

You posted the fl tables a few days ago. Look at them again and you will see this pattern also exists in FL.
'
Will do, sir.
 
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