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Coronavirus Cases Are Accelerating Across U.S.

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Ken555

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Protestors were wrong to not wear masks and social distance ( though now most do so ), but that does not legitimize others not doing it.

FWIW:

Why Are So Many N.Y.P.D. Officers Refusing to Wear Masks at Protests?
 

Ken555

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I was just trying to share some constructive feedback. I know that there is a lot of back and forth between a few of you so it’s not only you. I definitely appreciate if you keep sharing some of your data and research. This is a comment for everyone not just you. It would also be helpful if folks present the data with an open mind. Everything is changing so quickly that what is true today could be different tomorrow. I am sure I have shared some articles that are no longer relevant today. I try to be open to the fact that I (and anyone else) could be wrong. My beliefs have evolved since March based on new information. I am not going to block you. Your comments do not bother me that much. I have never blocked anyone on Tug actually. If something annoys me, I usually just do not read it. I hope we can still be friends on Tug.

I appreciate that. I would suggest that part of the issue here is that when I (and others) post comments with links and quotes it's not uncommon for others to respond to the manner in which the post was made and not the facts. Like the one which prompted your comment. You were obviously upset about the manner of my post, and did not comment at all about the post itself. Why can't you (and others) focus on the issue and not the tone of the post?
 

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BTW I recommend you all check out the C19 stats for Timbuktu. They are kicking ass.
Sadly, you could throw a dart at a world map and chances are, any country it landed on would have a better response than ours. Canada is looking like a good place for a short vacation but they won't let us in. Tried to get into Timbuktu, but they're not taking Americans either. Guess Mexico is our only option for now.
 

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DannyTS

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Sadly, you could throw a dart at a world map and chances are, any country it landed on would have a better response than ours.
Wherever you throw a dart on a world map, chances are you are going to hit water. If you do not hit water, you are probably going to hit a country that is testing little to nothing.
 
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cman

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Adding to @DannyTS table above, today is the fewest C19 deaths reported since 3/23. Yes, it's a Sunday of a holiday weekend, so the count may have an uptick tomorrow b/c of reporting lags. But nonetheless, we continue on a downward trend with that metric.

Based on the CDC's definition of "epidemic", the CDC very well might need to call this epidemic over for the time being.

View attachment 23041
That's funny. So, we're just going to cancel the pandemic? Guess we can
Wherever you throw a dart on a world map, chances are you are going to hit water. If you do not hit water, you are probably going to hit a country that is testing little to nothing.
Yep. And that country will most likely have a better response than ours.
 

TravelTime

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I think the point might be that reported cases are rising but reported deaths are going down. @Cornell and @DannyTS is that correct?
 

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Low-Income American Households Suffer Inflation Shock From Virus

 

bbodb1

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CO skier

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The first mistake was when the CDC sent out those botched test kits to the state labs.
If one wants to Monday Morning Quarterback the worldwide Covid-19 response, the "first mistake" was by the Chinese not informing the world of the new disease and instead suppressing the information received from their own doctors and scientists to avoid worldwide embarrassment as the likely source. That was before 2020 began.

The "second mistake" was the delay in the World Health Organization declaring Covid-19 a pandemic until a month after the disease had been named. Many conspiracy theories, but maybe the simplest explanation is the most reasonable (from Google, for those who want citations):

"When is the last time the WHO declared a pandemic?
The last time the WHO declared a pandemic was during the 2009 H1N1 swine flu, and it triggered aggressive actions, such as millions in spending to buy vaccines. But H1N1 turned out not to be as deadly and disruptive as feared, and a lot of governments were frustrated about buying vaccines that they ended up not using and harshly criticized the WHO for its declaration. Burned by that response, the WHO got rid of the six-stage procedure that led up to it declaring an influenza pandemic."


And for those who think the US was late to the game, there is this (from Google):

"Common question
When was the coronavirus disease declared a pandemic?
On March 11, 2020 the Novel Coronavirus Disease, COVID-19, was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. On March 13, 2020 a national emergency was declared in the United States concerning the COVID-19 Outbreak."


By March, 2020, it was way too late to "contain" Covid-19 (which some public policy makers in the US still seem to believe with their "quarantines" -- poor medical policy, but good politics).

Yes, "mistakes were made" and they should have been learning opportunities. "Flattening the curve," was supposed to take 14 days back in March, 3 Months later the shutdown has simply taken us back to near Square One with 94% of the US population vulnerable to Covid-19 and the exact same question, "Shutdown (again, which failed to "contain" the virus) until there is a vaccine, or re-open with informed, sensible precautions and follow the path that was inevitable from the beginning, and that Sweden selected from the beginning?

"Killing the virus" ain't going to happen in the next few years, if ever. Each county, each state, each nation will need to learn how to live with the virus while minimizing the undeniable damage and casualties. Some will do better than others. Politicians will play politics.

For those who like links and citations, here is one for some mindfulness going forward (and why I am continuing on with my vacations this summer with zero fear) and living life in general. (And why I have completely tuned-out the hyper video media, which is the model Absurd).


"One message is for us to never forget the fragility and brevity of life. Another message, more subtle but equally important, is that we have a duty to do our best to calm and sublimate our death fears. Recognizing this duty now seems to be an important task-one that we cannot allow ourselves to continue repressing.

Camus would likely have endorsed this approach, as his solution to the Absurd was to fully accept it – while continuing to live on – thereby achieving a transcendent form of freedom and personal meaning."
 

CO skier

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Every country got the memo at the same time. Those that acted proactively are in a better position than we are.
You need to check some facts:

Spain, Italy, USA, France shutdown at the same time mid-March. Sweden instituted sensible precautions and did not shut down school and business.

I would rather be riding out Covid-19 in the USA (or Sweden) than many European countries that shutdown at the same time as the USA. It is inevitable that re-opening will send any country that shutdown its society in the direction of Sweden when it re-opens. The Keystone Cops approach of the US just increased the angst, and the ongoing and new "quarantines" just show how little the Keystone Cops have learned in the last couple of months.

Current death rate per 100,000:

Cases and mortality by country
COUNTRYCONFIRMEDDEATHSCASE-FATALITYDEATHS/100K POP.
San Marino698426.0%124.32
Belgium61,8389,77115.8%85.54
Andorra855526.1%67.53
United Kingdom286,41244,28315.5%66.60
Spain250,54528,38511.3%60.75
Italy241,41934,85414.4%57.68
Sweden71,4195,4207.6%53.23
France204,22229,89614.6%44.63
US2,839,436129,6764.6%39.64
Ireland25,5091,7416.8%35.87
Netherlands50,5486,13212.1%35.59
Chile291,8476,1922.1%33.06
Peru299,08010,4123.5%32.55
Brazil1,577,00464,2654.1%30.68
Ecuador61,5354,7697.8%27.91
Mexico252,16530,36612.0%24.06
Canada107,1858,7328.1%23.56
Switzerland32,1981,9656.1%23.07
 

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...and add to that - testing rates are increasing.
Without randomized testing, that does not necessarily mean much, especially since the contract tracers are now working in many cities so more people are tested and have been in contact with Covid.
 

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Anti-police demonstrations helped drive coronavirus spike, some cities now acknowledge

Of course it did, not really news, but confirmation of what common sense told us already.
And the Grand Reopening of Florida (and other locations) has caused even more of a spike.
Whether mostly young people or not, it will still affect others outside the "young" group.


Governors stress 'personal responsibility'...

Virus floats in air as aerosol...

Broadway Star Dead at 41 After Long Battle...

Hospitals Sound Alarm...
 
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1594042493410.png
 

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DannyTS

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I suspect the graph will change a bit over the coming weeks. July 4th weekend seemed to be a worrisome unknown, so we'll see.
Please be sure to post a new graph in, say, a month.
Didn't some also suspect that the end of the lock downs would bring a disaster of epic proportions? I just do not see it in the graph above.
 

klpca

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Pretty much everything is open (some exceptions for sure) so I am curious what folks are still arguing about. From the outside looking in, it appears to be the covid is no big deal camp vs I am going to die from this thing camp. Or are we down to arguing about "being right"?

Right now we can't travel outside of our country. I am not, nor have I ever been worried about dying although I am concerned for the most vulnerable in our society. But continuing to constantly argue about the various covid rates does not seem to accomplish anything. Just think of the lives and costs saved if we kept people healthy and out of the hospital. This should be the goal of our citizens. If people would just wear a mask (that costs $5!) we could accomplish that goal. Sometimes I think that folks just want to hold out for a vaccine (which will cost billions to develop), when the cheap mask would carry us a long way towards the goal. At any rate, I want to get back to our old lives asap. Especially here on TUG, I would love to talk travel again.
 

bbodb1

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Without randomized testing, that does not necessarily mean much, especially since the contract tracers are now working in many cities so more people are tested and have been in contact with Covid.

The point I was suggesting is more testing will reveal more cases since our testing levels have still been far too small and too scattershot (which is why I have been hesitant to put much faith in the conclusions with respect to COVID-19 to date).

We need to test more in order to improve the confidence level in the testing we are doing. Testing more people should produce more accurate data.

BUT

I want to emphasize that last point in a slightly different way.
Something that either has not been publicized (and perhaps because it has not been universally tracked) is how many unique individuals have been tested (on any level).
For example, Arkansas has approximately 3 million citizens.
A recent look at the COVID-19 dashboard for Arkansas indicates approx 345K tests have been run to date.
Some will take this to mean that Arkansas has tested about 11.5% of its population.
But this assumes no individual was tested more than once. That likely is NOT true.
So what is the actual percentage of our population that has been tested once?

Again, this illustrates the weakness in our data collection methods throughout the country.
 

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If one wants to Monday Morning Quarterback the worldwide Covid-19 response, the "first mistake" was by the Chinese not informing the world of the new disease and instead suppressing the information received from their own doctors and scientists to avoid worldwide embarrassment as the likely source. That was before 2020 began.

The "second mistake" was the delay in the World Health Organization declaring Covid-19 a pandemic until a month after the disease had been named. Many conspiracy theories, but maybe the simplest explanation is the most reasonable (from Google, for those who want citations):

"When is the last time the WHO declared a pandemic?
The last time the WHO declared a pandemic was during the 2009 H1N1 swine flu, and it triggered aggressive actions, such as millions in spending to buy vaccines. But H1N1 turned out not to be as deadly and disruptive as feared, and a lot of governments were frustrated about buying vaccines that they ended up not using and harshly criticized the WHO for its declaration. Burned by that response, the WHO got rid of the six-stage procedure that led up to it declaring an influenza pandemic."


And for those who think the US was late to the game, there is this (from Google):

"Common question
When was the coronavirus disease declared a pandemic?
On March 11, 2020 the Novel Coronavirus Disease, COVID-19, was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. On March 13, 2020 a national emergency was declared in the United States concerning the COVID-19 Outbreak."


By March, 2020, it was way too late to "contain" Covid-19 (which some public policy makers in the US still seem to believe with their "quarantines" -- poor medical policy, but good politics).

Yes, "mistakes were made" and they should have been learning opportunities. "Flattening the curve," was supposed to take 14 days back in March, 3 Months later the shutdown has simply taken us back to near Square One with 94% of the US population vulnerable to Covid-19 and the exact same question, "Shutdown (again, which failed to "contain" the virus) until there is a vaccine, or re-open with informed, sensible precautions and follow the path that was inevitable from the beginning, and that Sweden selected from the beginning?

"Killing the virus" ain't going to happen in the next few years, if ever. Each county, each state, each nation will need to learn how to live with the virus while minimizing the undeniable damage and casualties. Some will do better than others. Politicians will play politics.

For those who like links and citations, here is one for some mindfulness going forward (and why I am continuing on with my vacations this summer with zero fear) and living life in general. (And why I have completely tuned-out the hyper video media, which is the model Absurd).


"One message is for us to never forget the fragility and brevity of life. Another message, more subtle but equally important, is that we have a duty to do our best to calm and sublimate our death fears. Recognizing this duty now seems to be an important task-one that we cannot allow ourselves to continue repressing.

Camus would likely have endorsed this approach, as his solution to the Absurd was to fully accept it – while continuing to live on – thereby achieving a transcendent form of freedom and personal meaning."

Another thing it to look at such data, as contradictory and unsatisfactory as it is, that suggest courses to mitigate the severity and/or duration of the disease.

(And check your politics at the door!)

An example. There is data (Indonesia retrospective data) that imply that if one has a high Vitamin D3 titre at the time of hospitalization, the odd of dying drop dramatically.

Causitive or merely a correlation? <Shrug> Would it hurt you to treat it as causitive? No. Is there a major push for taking Vitamin D3? NO.

Why not? The usual suspects. . .
 
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