Coronavirus Cases Are Accelerating Across U.S.

[WinniWoman]

People can read the posts here, but also should probably do their own research to come to their own conclusions.

Ken- avatars can't breathe so they really don't need to wear masks. LOL! I'm teasing you!

 

[Brett]

I’m going to write whatever I feel is necessary. I’m sorry if you don’t like it, so feel free to block me anytime. I’m glad you appreciated some of my comments, but clearly you don’t see the insults others send my way since you haven’t corrected them. If you’re going to pretend to take the high road, at least try to do so objectively.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

good

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/us/coronavirus-myrtle-beach.html

 

[DannyTS]

The modern Western societies have been built on accepting and encouraging different points of view. Now that is changing, you can be eviscerated for even asking questions. You are uninformed, misguided and probably have evil motives. Not only you do not get it, you are a bad person (you choose the wallet vs. lives narrative for example).

 

[bluehende]

Hong Kong

The numbers

Hong Kong COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Hong Kong Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

If we had reacted early and effectively like Hong Kong a city of 7.5 million we could have had numbers like these. They had first cases about when we did and have a very dense population. They also have experienced demonstrations.

Normalizing for population

equivalent deaths in the us would be 500 not 130000 (Hong Kong 10)

Our current 7 day average of new cases would be 450 not over 45000 (Hong Kong 9)

While Hong Kong is probably the most extreme difference the basic premise holds for all of Asia.

 

[DannyTS]

key points from this interview:

++“There are already more than 50 studies that have presented results on how many people in different countries and locations have developed antibodies to the virus,”

++based on those studies he estimates that about 150-300 million or more people have already been infected by COVID-19 around the world, far more than the 10 million documented cases

++“Globally, the lock-down measures have increased the number of people at risk of starvation to 1.1 billion, and they are putting at risk millions of lives,”

++“For people younger than 45, the infection fatality rate is almost 0%. For 45 to 70, it is probably about 0.05%-0.3%. For those above 70, it escalates substantially.”

++The vast majority of people who die with a COVID-19 label have at least one and typically many other comorbidities. This means that often they have other reasons that would lead them to death. The relative contribution of COVID-19 needs very careful audit and evaluation of medical records.

Up to 300 Million People May Be Infected by Covid-19, Stanford Guru John Ioannidis Says

Leading epidemiologist Dr. John Ioannidis of Stanford University estimates that about 150-300 million or more people have already been infected by COVID-19 around the world, far more than the 10 million documented cases. In an interview with Greek Reporter, the Greek American scientist warns...

usa.greekreporter.com

 

[cman]

Hong Kong

The numbers

Hong Kong COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Hong Kong Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

If we had reacted early and effectively like Hong Kong a city of 7.5 million we could have had numbers like these. They had first cases about when we did and have a very dense population. They also have experienced demonstrations.

Normalizing for population

equivalent deaths in the us would be 500 not 130000 (Hong Kong 10)

Our current 7 day average of new cases would be 450 not over 45000 (Hong Kong 9)

While Hong Kong is probably the most extreme difference the basic premise holds for all of Asia.

Along those same lines, I like the Mongolian example. Little Mongolia had the best response in the world. To date, they've not had a single death.

COVID Underdogs: Mongolia

The best COVID-19 response in the world

medium.com

 

[bbodb1]

Along those same lines, I like the Mongolian example. Little Mongolia had the best response in the world. To date, they've not had a single death.

COVID Underdogs: Mongolia

The best COVID-19 response in the world

medium.com

But would you really want to live as the Mongolian people do?

The fact that country A handled their response to COVID 19 better than country B has a wide variety of factors that may have influenced the effectiveness of a response that go unrecognized.

 

[Cornell]

But would you really want to live as the Mongolian people do?

The fact that country A handled their response to COVID 19 better than country B has a wide variety of factors that may have influenced the effectiveness of a response that go unrecognized.

Given that yurts are a super trendy thing these days among a certain demographic (like "glamping") , who knows?

BTW I recommend you all check out the C19 stats for Timbuktu. They are kicking ass.

 

[cman]

But would you really want to live as the Mongolian people do?

The fact that country A handled their response to COVID 19 better than country B has a wide variety of factors that may have influenced the effectiveness of a response that go unrecognized.

I wouldn't like to live as the Mongolian people do. However, I think we can learn some things from them and other countries with regard to pandemic response.

I also agree that it's difficult to make a direct comparison between countries for the reasons that you mentioned. That being said, I would never have expected the USA to have one of, if not the worst responses of almost any country on Earth. Our response was abysmal from the start and we've been struggling ever since. There's going to be another one of these down the road, hopefully we're prepared next time.

 

[bbodb1]

I wouldn't like to live as the Mongolian people do. However, I think we can learn some things from them and other countries with regard to pandemic response.

I also agree that it's difficult to make a direct comparison between countries for the reasons that you mentioned. That being said, I would never have expected the USA to have one of, if not the worst responses of almost any country on Earth. Our response was abysmal from the start and we've been struggling ever since. There's going to be another one of these down the road, hopefully we're prepared next time.

Fair enough - I agree with you on this. Just once, I would like to see our country truly prepared for when a health crisis or natural disaster comes our way. That is what government should be but has failed to be in my adult lifetime.

 

[bbodb1]

Given that yurts are a super trendy thing these days among a certain demographic (like "glamping") , who knows?

BTW I recommend you all check out the C19 stats for Timbuktu. They are kicking ass.

As long as said yurt is at (or above) 6,000 feet in altitude, I am in!

 

[davidvel]

That being said, I would never have expected the USA to have one of, if not the worst responses of almost any country on Earth.

What metric do you base this on? Certainly not death per population rate.

 

[DannyTS]

At the beginning of the pandemic, planes did not fly from Wuhan to any destination in China (including Hong Kong) but the Chinese government allowed them to go to Europe and the US. I am not surprised that China and HK did well with the exception of Wuhan.


Is anyone surprised Mongolia has done well?

 

[am1]

What metric do you base this on? Certainly not death per population rate.

Problem with the USA is even if you lockdown the borders there are still millions moving between states. I said from the start states or regions based on other criteria should have travel restrictions. None of this 14 day home quarantine that not everyone would follow.

it does not matter how it started in a country or how it’s going but when it ends, the final numbers and the collateral damage.

 

[Cornell]

The modern Western societies have been built on accepting and encouraging different points of view. Now that is changing, you can be eviscerated for even asking questions. You are uninformed, misguided and probably have evil motives. Not only you do not get it, you are a bad person (you choose the wallet vs. lives narrative for example).

Add "science denier", "flat earther", "grandma killer", "conspiracy theorist".

 

[GrampaTim]

A huge number of the Texas "spike" is from mass testing and finally reporting results of prisons-where a large majority of the new cases are coming from. That and packing plants are clusters that get counted and suddenly recorded. As big as Texas is, with as high a prison population it's not surprising really.

But what the heck is happening in Arizona??

We can speculate about testing numbers all day, but to me, the real key is hospitalizations. People have to be really sick to be admitted, and even if they survive, the long term physical consequences of the disease are significant.

In Texas many hospitals are now reporting they are going into overload, and using a "rating scale" to determine who can be admitted ( most likely to survive estimate ). The same is happening in Arizona.

The spread has not been stopped, and in most cases it is where there is a disregard for the very simple social distancing guidelines. In Canada, where the guidelines are followed, July 3 showed 21 deaths to over 700 in the US reported that day. Most nations who follow the guidelines have the same results.

As we consider our vacation plans, and where we will travel, our decision is based on facilities that insist on compliance with the federal safe practices guidelines. We simply won't travel to where they are not enforced. We'd rather not be a statistic.

 

[GrampaTim]

I am a bit confused on the bolded point @bluehende but if you mean prisons cases can spill over into the community at large, Arkansas is living proof of this. Poultry processors, retirement homes and prisons are our largest source of COVID-19 cases in the state. Once the virus enters a facility, not only does it run through the residents (or inmates) but also the staff carries the virus to the outside world. I suspect this is the case everywhere. And as @silentg notes below, the timing of the protests was idiotic and needlessly increased an already bad situation.



@Passepartout - that is something our Governor Hutchinson has been asked on more than one occassion (what would it take for our state to back up a level) and his answers (to this point anyway) have been dismissive of that possibility. I can understand not wanting to return restrictions to businesses already hurting (hemorrhaging in some cases, closed in others) but the situation in Arkansas is getting worse as we attempt to return to pre COVID-19 operating conditions. It appears we are not alone in this trend.

There are no easy answers here, but insisting on moving toward total reopening in the face of current developments is madness.



Protestors, rioters and looters have indeed added gasoline to the COVID-19 problem (and other problems) but I doubt those groups have any hint of introspective reflection in their skill set.

Protestors were wrong to not wear masks and social distance ( though now most do so ), but that does not legitimize others not doing it.

 

[TravelTime]

I’m going to write whatever I feel is necessary. I’m sorry if you don’t like it, so feel free to block me anytime. I’m glad you appreciated some of my comments, but clearly you don’t see the insults others send my way since you haven’t corrected them. If you’re going to pretend to take the high road, at least try to do so objectively.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

I was just trying to share some constructive feedback. I know that there is a lot of back and forth between a few of you so it’s not only you. I definitely appreciate if you keep sharing some of your data and research. This is a comment for everyone not just you. It would also be helpful if folks present the data with an open mind. Everything is changing so quickly that what is true today could be different tomorrow. I am sure I have shared some articles that are no longer relevant today. I try to be open to the fact that I (and anyone else) could be wrong. My beliefs have evolved since March based on new information. I am not going to block you. Your comments do not bother me that much. I have never blocked anyone on Tug actually. If something annoys me, I usually just do not read it. I hope we can still be friends on Tug.

 

[cman]

What metric do you base this on? Certainly not death per population rate.

The USA is only 4% of the world's population, but accounts for 26% of all C19 cases and 25% of all C19 deaths.

The thing is, our current situation is the result of a series of government blunders in the initial stages of our response that were completely preventable. The first mistake was when the CDC sent out those botched test kits to the state labs. This blunder caused a 6 week delay in testing, and blew any chance we had at containing this thing. Hell by the first of March we had tested a total of 1500 people when South Korea was testing 10,000 per day. Now the state and private labs had the capability to produce their own tests, but the bureaucracy at the FDA wouldn't let them until it was too late.

The blunders mentioned above are just some of the reasons I find our response to C19 unacceptable. I could understand if it were an issue of funding or resources. That's not the case here, this was a lack of competence.

 

[Clifbell]

I've completely adjusted my use of Timeshares as a result of Covid. And with the cases rising, it is even more important. I am in the process of downsizing to a cottage as part of an investment property. This lowers my cost to about $600/month mortgage in Arizona. I was originally planning on staying year round in Timeshares and air b'n'b's. The fact that Timeshares closed has had me change my complete approach. I now have downsized and will only start traveling in August. I will carry all my own disinfectant cleaning supplies and will not have anyone "clean" my unit. I have plenty of hand sanitizer (it is finally back in stores), masks, and gloves. I am now going to mostly out of the way timeshares like Worldmark Marina Dunes or Arizona Pinetop. But in between, I am going to stay in my little cottage that has a pool and a large park next to it. Th rise in infection rate is an added complication, but something that was expected (but I am shocked at how much it has spiked). I have see so many people in Arizona without masks and going to bars (If I need a drink, I drink at home).

I created a short video that is a summary of the post above. It can be found at

 

[cman]

Interesting TED Talk from Bill Gates. He gave this talk 5 years ago and it's an accurate description of our current situation. I like the fact that he outlines useful solutions. Skip to 04:14 if you're in a hurry.

 

[DannyTS]

new deaths today:

 

[Cornell]

Adding to @DannyTS table above, today is the fewest C19 deaths reported since 3/23. Yes, it's a Sunday of a holiday weekend, so the count may have an uptick tomorrow b/c of reporting lags. But nonetheless, we continue on a downward trend with that metric.

Based on the CDC's definition of "epidemic", the CDC very well might need to call this epidemic over for the time being.

 

[Brett]

Adding to @DannyTS table above, today is the fewest C19 deaths reported since 3/23. Yes, it's a Sunday of a holiday weekend, so the count may have an uptick tomorrow b/c of reporting lags. But nonetheless, we continue on a downward trend with that metric.

Based on the CDC's definition of "epidemic", the CDC very well might need to call this epidemic over for the time being.

That's wonderful news.
Now that the pandemic is over we don't have to wear silly masks and social distance.


I'm starting to feel so much better

 

[bbodb1]

Protestors were wrong to not wear masks and social distance ( though now most do so ), but that does not legitimize others not doing it.

....and in other news, staying home continues to be the best prevention and yet........