Coronavirus Cases Are Accelerating Across U.S.

[Rjbeach2003]

I know that if you agree with what I write below it will bolster your position. If you disagree, the you will disregard. Even so here goes.

Often you will see as a reason not to worry about Covid 19 because "it's no worse than the seasonal flu"

So I went to the CDC and worldometers.com for the fact related to the US. In the last flu season, from the CDC, in cases of flu reported deaths from the flu were .09%. To be clear, that isn't 9% it is less than 1%. Please don't be insulted as you probably know how %'s work, but many people don't.

Out of all cases of Covid19 reported in the US, to date the death rate is 4.6%. That is 51 times higher than death from flu. If you look at another statistic, the % of closed cases that are closed because of death is 10%. This number has moved around a lot, from a high of 21% to a low of 8%. The actual number will only be known when this pandemic ends.

Obviously the numbers can change when we are able to actually count all the cases, now unknown, and the number of deaths, not attributed to COVIC19.

The only person I know who contracted the disease, was a young man, healthy, rode bikes, exercised, did yoga, and ate healthy. He became so ill he feared he was going to die. I am so thankful he didn't. He doesn't know how he contracted it, as he and his girlfriend ordered all food delivered, didn't go out much and when the did practice distancing and wore a mask. He was able to work from home.

 

[davidvel]

I know that if you agree with what I write below it will bolster your position. If you disagree, the you will disregard. Even so here goes.

Often you will see as a reason not to worry about Covid 19 because "it's no worse than the seasonal flu"

So I went to the CDC and worldometers.com for the fact related to the US. In the last flu season, from the CDC, in cases of flu reported deaths from the flu were .09%. To be clear, that isn't 9% it is less than 1%. Please don't be insulted as you probably know how %'s work, but many people don't.

Out of all cases of Covid19 reported in the US, to date the death rate is 4.6%. That is 51 times higher than death from flu. If you look at another statistic, the % of closed cases that are closed because of death is 10%. This number has moved around a lot, from a high of 21% to a low of 8%. The actual number will only be known when this pandemic ends.

Obviously the numbers can change when we are able to actually count all the cases, now unknown, and the number of deaths, not attributed to COVIC19.

The only person I know who contracted the disease, was a young man, healthy, rode bikes, exercised, did yoga, and ate healthy. He became so ill he feared he was going to die. I am so thankful he didn't. He doesn't know how he contracted it, as he and his girlfriend ordered all food delivered, didn't go out much and when the did practice distancing and wore a mask. He was able to work from home.

The problem with this "analysis" is the flu rate is based upon scientifically determined infections, not tests. Your numbers for C19, are for confirmed tests, which are estimated to be 10% or less of total infections. So the C19 death per infection number is probably closer to .2-.5%, or about 2-5x that of the flu.

And no the actual number will never be known for flu or C19 unless you could test everyone for each, every season.

 

[vacationtime1]

deleted

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

The problem with this "analysis" is the flu rate is based upon scientifically determined infections, not tests. Your numbers for C19, are for confirmed tests, which are estimated to be 10% or less of total infections. So the C19 death per infection number is probably closer to .2-.5%, or about 2-5x that of the flu.

And no the actual number will never be known for flu or C19 unless you could test everyone for each, every season.

The reality is that flu deaths are as much estimated as COVID-19 deaths.

 

[GregT]

There is an interesting letter (within the article) from a Texas medical group. It's the only one of it's kind that I've seen and I'm curious if we will see more or of this is an anomaly. Strange days...

Best,

Greg

Why We Should Not Be Concerned About Increasing Covid-19 Cases in...

"That increased testing means we are discovering more young and healthy people with COVID-19 should not be surprising or alarming in the slightest. The hospitals are under financial pressure from having to mostly stop doing business for months, so they are classifying as many people as possible...

www.aier.org

Wow. It is interesting how quickly someone can be on the defensive when going against the stream.

All I was doing was referencing the letter (that was written within the article) -- and yes, the article is from a Libertarian leaning group and yes, the letter was written by their General Counsel. His concern about "becoming a target" is spot on these days -- I wonder if he regrets writing the letter (to Alex Berenson, who originally reported it).

His comments are consistent with comments from others:

UPMC doctor sees too much focus on rising COVID-19 cases, too little on declining severity and hospitalizations

However, Dr. Donald Yealy and another UPMC official stressed it's no reason not to wear a mask and continue social distancing.

www.pennlive.com

Coronavirus 'has withered from an aggressive tiger to a wild cat'

Professor Matteo Bassetti, an infectious diseases doctor in Genoa, Italy, suggests a genetic mutation, better treatments, or smaller quantities of the virus could be reducing danger.

www.dailymail.co.uk

To reiterate, I don't know what to believe -- and I continue to wear a mask and socially distance. But I will continue to look for data that either confirms that things are as awful as headlines suggest or is the story more complicated?

I wish we would hear from doctors in other hot spots to see if there is a difference in patients that are presenting now, versus 90 days ago, and if the patients are responding differently. Wouldn't that be good to know? Shouldn't "journalists" be curious to follow this story and report on it? Even if the answer comes out that things are as awful as we are being told, that too would be good to know.

These are strange times.

Best,

Greg

 

[DannyTS]

I know that if you agree with what I write below it will bolster your position. If you disagree, the you will disregard. Even so here goes.

Often you will see as a reason not to worry about Covid 19 because "it's no worse than the seasonal flu"

So I went to the CDC and worldometers.com for the fact related to the US. In the last flu season, from the CDC, in cases of flu reported deaths from the flu were .09%. To be clear, that isn't 9% it is less than 1%. Please don't be insulted as you probably know how %'s work, but many people don't.

Out of all cases of Covid19 reported in the US, to date the death rate is 4.6%. That is 51 times higher than death from flu. If you look at another statistic, the % of closed cases that are closed because of death is 10%. This number has moved around a lot, from a high of 21% to a low of 8%. The actual number will only be known when this pandemic ends.

Obviously the numbers can change when we are able to actually count all the cases, now unknown, and the number of deaths, not attributed to COVIC19.

The only person I know who contracted the disease, was a young man, healthy, rode bikes, exercised, did yoga, and ate healthy. He became so ill he feared he was going to die. I am so thankful he didn't. He doesn't know how he contracted it, as he and his girlfriend ordered all food delivered, didn't go out much and when the did practice distancing and wore a mask. He was able to work from home.

Can you please provide the source where you found the deaths from flu were 0.09%?

 

[klpca]

One really positive development from C19, it has really curtailed people from invading my personal space, especially while waiting in lines.

Yes. I would be very happy if everyone had to stay 6 feet away from me in a store - forever.

 

[Cornell]

@GregT You might enjoy @EthicalSkeptic on Twitter

 

[nerodog]

I think the main reason for the surge in cases is that people are getting together in big gatherings, at restaurants, at stores, together with family and friends, etc. without social distancing or wearing masks. When everyone was staying home, of course the virus would not spread. How could it? No one was in contact. Then the states reopened without clear guidance and boom, the cases went up because everyone thought it was safe to be social again. This is to be expected. We can’t stay home until 2021 or longer until there is a vaccine or treatment. The government needs a coordinated strategy and clear messaging and clear mandates if we are to get the cases rates back down. They are beating Covid in other countries. Other countries are reopening and cases are not soaring. Why can‘t the USA reopen safely?

Well said... people have to make the effort and act like the virus is out there.

 

[Ken555]

I found the earlier misleading posts about state reopening plans disquieting. If those whom I had thought were well informed (based solely on their historical posts on TUG, as I only have met a few members over the years in person) are not, then it changes my perception of the value of TUG posts significantly. So, I thought it would be worthwhile for me to look into the details of the reopening plans for at least those states which are experiencing significant increasing positive C19 numbers and a higher Rt, starting with Florida. Hopefully this summary will be valuable to you, as well.

On April 29 Florida announced their reopening plans which started on April 30. [#'s in brackets are the C19 positive case count for Florida from https://covidtracking.com/data/state/florida#historical]
May 4: Phase One reopening. 16,081 tests, of which 819 were positive (5.09%) [36,897]
May 11: Phase One expansion (Palm Beach County and opened more business types (barbershops, salons, etc)). [40,982]
May 14: Phase One expansion (Miami-Dade and Broward Counties). [43,210]
End of May: certain areas were permitted to reopen restaurants with certain restrictions.
June 1: Miami-Dade reopened hotels and pools. [56,830]
June 5: Phase Two (all counties except Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach) may reopen more businesses (restaurants, bars, museums, gyms, retail stores, movie theaters, auditoriums, bowling alleys and more may operate at 50% occupancy); "personal services" businesses such as tattoos, piercings, acupencture, tanning and massage fully open with "appropriate safety guidelines". Specific local guidelines were announced in various Florida cities. Universal Orlando opens its parks. [61,488]
June 11: SeaWorld reopens [69,069]
June 19: Gov DeSantis not concerned about increasing C19 positive cases. https://www.clickorlando.com/news/l...e-as-state-continues-to-see-increasing-cases/ [89.748]
June 20: Orange County (Orlando) mandates masks in public. [93,797]
June 26: Bars no longer to serve alcohol for on-site consumption (this restriction does not apply to restaurants). [122,960]
June 27: South Florida announces beaches will be closed for July 4th weekend. [132,545]
July 3: 49,177 tests, of which 9,488 were positive (19.29%) (https://rt.live/us/FL)
July 4: [190,052 as of 7/4/20 12:53pm ET]

In the two months since reopening began, the C19 positive case count has increased by over 500%. As of today, the Rt for Florida is at 1.30. And Florida is still open.

More info: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Florida, https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/03/20/timeline-the-spread-of-coronavirus-in-florida/, https://rt.live/us/FL

What is Rt (or R0)?

What Is R0? Gauging Contagious Infections

R0 indicates how contagious a disease is. Learn how it works and the R0 values for various diseases.

www.healthline.com

"Plan for Florida's Recovery: Report to Governor DeSantis from the Re-Open Florida Task Force": https://www.flgov.com/wp-content/uploads/covid19/Taskforce Report.pdf

Takeaway: If the numbers get bad, Florida will not progress to the next phase. But...did they follow their own plan? No.

Did this plan work? Did/do they act upon the information quickly?

Florida testing summary (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/florida):

Florida testing sites could run out of supplies soon as COVID-19 case numbers rise [June 29]

USF doctors say ideally hundreds of thousands more people should be tested per day to get an accurate picture of where the virus is in Florida.

TAMPA, Fla. — Almost four months into fighting the coronavirus outbreak, testing sites across Florida are falling behind.

“I think all these places having so many positive cases so quickly, we got back in the same situation that we saw earlier on in the spring, which is where we're running out of testing supplies,” Dr. Jill Roberts with the University of South Florida Public Health said.

As cases surge, counties are concerned they're not testing enough -- and supplies and staffing will run thin.

A brand new drive-thru testing site at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg closed about an hour after it opened Monday because it already reached capacity.

Takeaway: insufficient testing, insufficient supplies.

And then there's this disturbing story, which validates the concern many of us have about the accuracy of any numbers coming out of the local government:

Trust Index: Just how many people has Florida tested for COVID-19?
Florida Department of Health includes coronavirus re-tests in statewide testing totals

Trust Index: Just how many people has Florida tested for COVID-19?

On Tuesday, the state’s COVID-19 dashboard reported there have been nearly 2 million “total people tested.” But that number could be misleading.

www.news4jax.com

Florida would need to triple contact tracing workforce to meet pandemic criteria

Florida would need to triple contact tracing workforce to meet pandemic criteria

Imagine being given a list of 23 people and told that you need to track down and contact every person that each of those 23 people has come into contact with in the last two weeks. Time is of the essence because those contacts may have been exposed to COVID-19.

www.fox13news.com

According to the National Association of County and City Health Officials, during a pandemic, about 30 contact tracers are needed for every 100,000 people. The latest data show there are only eight states that meet the threshold.

In order for Florida to meet the same threshold, it would need to nearly triple its workforce to around 6,500 contact tracers.

As COVID-19 Spreads Across South Florida, Pressure Builds to Boost Contact Tracing

As COVID-19 Spreads Across South Florida, Pressure Builds to Boost Contact Tracing

Contact tracing is like detective work that helps contain COVID-19. When someone tests positive, a contact tracer starts an investigation to find out who…

www.wlrn.org

Takeaway: Florida is not adequately prepared for contact tracing

 

[klpca]

I think that it is high time for some to stay away from all media and go straight to the source for information. I think that there is more of an issue with media headlines/talking points than the information itself.

Maybe that is why I am not as affected. I simply do not watch network news, and rarely local news. The news shows and the talking heads don't rile me up because they don't exist in my world. I read two newspapers, one local and one national. I'm good. I can figure things out because most companies and government agencies have....websites. You can get your own information straight from the source. Stay away from blogs too, or just read them with a bit of skepticism because they are as biased as they come. Sure they are entertaining, but do you really think that someone who writes a blog is inherently smarter than you? Feel free to do your own thinking.

Try it, you'll like it!

 

[Brett]

I think that it is high time for some to stay away from all media and go straight to the source for information. I think that there is more of an issue with media headlines/talking points than the information itself.

Maybe that is why I am not as affected. I simply do not watch network news, and rarely local news. The news shows and the talking heads don't rile me up because they don't exist in my world. I read two newspapers, one local and one national. I'm good. I can figure things out because most companies and government agencies have....websites. You can get your own information straight from the source. Stay away from blogs too, or just read them with a bit of skepticism because they are as biased as they come. Sure they are entertaining, but do you really think that someone who writes a blog is inherently smarter than you? Feel free to do your own thinking.

Try it, you'll like it!

I watch local and national news (NBC) and a couple of newspapers - WSJ and NYT

I don't look at the social media "blogs" and 24/7 cable shows

I don't get riled up ....

 

[DannyTS]

I found the earlier misleading posts about state reopening plans disquieting. If those whom I had thought were well informed (based solely on their historical posts on TUG, as I only have met a few members over the years in person) are not, then it changes my perception of the value of TUG posts significantly. So, I thought it would be worthwhile for me to look into the details of the reopening plans for at least those states which are experiencing significant increasing positive C19 numbers and a higher Rt, starting with Florida. Hopefully this summary will be valuable to you, as well.

On April 29 Florida announced their reopening plans which started on April 30. [#'s in brackets are the C19 positive case count for Florida from https://covidtracking.com/data/state/florida#historical]
May 4: Phase One reopening. 16,081 tests, of which 819 were positive (5.09%) [36,897]
May 11: Phase One expansion (Palm Beach County and opened more business types (barbershops, salons, etc)). [40,982]
May 14: Phase One expansion (Miami-Dade and Broward Counties). [43,210]
End of May: certain areas were permitted to reopen restaurants with certain restrictions.
June 1: Miami-Dade reopened hotels and pools. [56,830]
June 5: Phase Two (all counties except Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach) may reopen more businesses (restaurants, bars, museums, gyms, retail stores, movie theaters, auditoriums, bowling alleys and more may operate at 50% occupancy); "personal services" businesses such as tattoos, piercings, acupencture, tanning and massage fully open with "appropriate safety guidelines". Specific local guidelines were announced in various Florida cities. Universal Orlando opens its parks. [61,488]
June 11: SeaWorld reopens [69,069]
June 19: Gov DeSantis not concerned about increasing C19 positive cases. https://www.clickorlando.com/news/l...e-as-state-continues-to-see-increasing-cases/ [89.748]
June 20: Orange County (Orlando) mandates masks in public. [93,797]
June 26: Bars no longer to serve alcohol for on-site consumption (this restriction does not apply to restaurants). [122,960]
June 27: South Florida announces beaches will be closed for July 4th weekend. [132,545]
July 3: 49,177 tests, of which 9,488 were positive (19.29%) (https://rt.live/us/FL)
July 4: [190,052 as of 7/4/20 12:53pm ET]

In the two months since reopening began, the C19 positive case count has increased by over 500%. As of today, the Rt for Florida is at 1.30. And Florida is still open.

More info: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Florida, https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/03/20/timeline-the-spread-of-coronavirus-in-florida/, https://rt.live/us/FL

What is Rt (or R0)?

What Is R0? Gauging Contagious Infections

R0 indicates how contagious a disease is. Learn how it works and the R0 values for various diseases.

www.healthline.com

"Plan for Florida's Recovery: Report to Governor DeSantis from the Re-Open Florida Task Force": https://www.flgov.com/wp-content/uploads/covid19/Taskforce Report.pdf

View attachment 22983

Takeaway: If the numbers get bad, Florida will not progress to the next phase. But...did they follow their own plan? No.

View attachment 22984

Did this plan work? Did/do they act upon the information quickly?

Florida testing summary (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/florida):

View attachment 22988


Florida testing sites could run out of supplies soon as COVID-19 case numbers rise [June 29]



Takeaway: insufficient testing, insufficient supplies.

And then there's this disturbing story, which validates the concern many of us have about the accuracy of any numbers coming out of the local government:

Trust Index: Just how many people has Florida tested for COVID-19?
Florida Department of Health includes coronavirus re-tests in statewide testing totals

Trust Index: Just how many people has Florida tested for COVID-19?

On Tuesday, the state’s COVID-19 dashboard reported there have been nearly 2 million “total people tested.” But that number could be misleading.

www.news4jax.com

View attachment 22987

Florida would need to triple contact tracing workforce to meet pandemic criteria

Florida would need to triple contact tracing workforce to meet pandemic criteria

Imagine being given a list of 23 people and told that you need to track down and contact every person that each of those 23 people has come into contact with in the last two weeks. Time is of the essence because those contacts may have been exposed to COVID-19.

www.fox13news.com

As COVID-19 Spreads Across South Florida, Pressure Builds to Boost Contact Tracing

As COVID-19 Spreads Across South Florida, Pressure Builds to Boost Contact Tracing

Contact tracing is like detective work that helps contain COVID-19. When someone tests positive, a contact tracer starts an investigation to find out who…

www.wlrn.org

Takeaway: Florida is not adequately prepared for contact tracing

You have commented a lot about Florida, never a negative comment about how New York has managed the crisis few weeks ago. To keep things in prospective you have the statistics below. There are more people who live in Florida than in NY (by about 2 million). You can still catch up on criticizing NY but I guess we all know why you focus on certain states all the time.

 

[Ken555]

I think that it is high time for some to stay away from all media and go straight to the source for information. I think that there is more of an issue with media headlines/talking points than the information itself.

Maybe that is why I am not as affected. I simply do not watch network news, and rarely local news. The news shows and the talking heads don't rile me up because they don't exist in my world. I read two newspapers, one local and one national. I'm good. I can figure things out because most companies and government agencies have....websites. You can get your own information straight from the source. Stay away from blogs too, or just read them with a bit of skepticism because they are as biased as they come. Sure they are entertaining, but do you really think that someone who writes a blog is inherently smarter than you? Feel free to do your own thinking.

Try it, you'll like it!

I read info from many sources, including local governments (I quoted one in my post earlier today). Sadly, local governments are often not the best source for info any longer since they are also interpreting data. In Florida’s case, they are also not classifying certain data so it’s even harder to get accurate info.

I think your real point is to always ask why. Find out more info. Make intelligent conclusions based on the evidence. For that, I agree completely.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[DannyTS]

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

 

[TravelTime]

deleted

 

[klpca]

I read info from many sources, including local governments (I quoted one in my post earlier today). Sadly, local governments are often not the best source for info any longer since they are also interpreting data. In Florida’s case, they are also not classifying certain data so it’s even harder to get accurate info.

I think your real point is to always ask why. Find out more info. Make intelligent conclusions based on the evidence. For that, I agree completely.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Our county covid site is just numbers (at least the part where I get my information). How many tested, how many positive, which zip codes, what ages etc. I wish that they were more transparent about where the community outbreaks have occurred so that I can avoid those hot spots. Is your county different?

At any rate, yes I am just saying don't feel the need to get your news predigested. Everyone on this board is smart enough to figure out timeshare systems so no one needs to trust the media as a sole source for anything. There are other ways to get some more information than just another news show. That said, I know what I know, and I know what I *don't* know and I don't presume to know more than someone who has made their career studying epidemiology, for example. I will defer to their knowledge.

Carry on tuggers!! Of to start another thread. Come join me and let's discuss your covid drinks.

 

[TravelTime]

“Don’t get riled up.”

Yes, I agree. There is too much fighting over sources and what media you watch. Be chill. Smart people can sift through it all and come to reasonable conclusions. No need for so much fighting on Tug.

 

[Ken555]

I was going to research Arizona, California, and Texas (with Florida these are the four hot spots right now, though I expect that to change) next but it seems this info isn't desired. So much for critical thinking on TUG! Moving on... I'll chime in if needed (ie. when I next see questionable comments), but won't spend much time on this any longer other than more news when appropriate.

I, for one, do not accept the premise that we must learn to live with C19, especially since we had (and have, at least for the moment) the opportunity to flatten the curve, again.

 

[TravelTime]

I was going to research Arizona, California, and Texas (with Florida these are the four hot spots right now, though I expect that to change) next but it seems this info isn't desired. So much for critical thinking on TUG! Moving on... I'll chime in if needed (ie. when I next see questionable comments), but won't spend much time on this any longer other than more news when appropriate.

I, for one, do not accept the premise that we must learn to live with C19, especially since we had (and have, at least for the moment) the opportunity to flatten the curve, again.

Sharing info and critical thinking is fine. It is all the fighting and insulting that needs to stop.

 

[Cornell]

@TravelTime ...and the condescension

 

[TravelTime]

I found the earlier misleading posts about state reopening plans disquieting. If those whom I had thought were well informed (based solely on their historical posts on TUG, as I only have met a few members over the years in person) are not, then it changes my perception of the value of TUG posts significantly.

@Ken555 Here’s an example of something you could omit when you post. There is no need to insult other people in order to share helpful information and help educate us on Tug. I appreciate the data you share but not when it is preceded with this. Then I do not read what follows. I am sure you spent a lot of valuable time researching this and it is appreciated.

 

[cman]

I was going to research Arizona, California, and Texas (with Florida these are the four hot spots right now, though I expect that to change) next but it seems this info isn't desired. So much for critical thinking on TUG! Moving on... I'll chime in if needed (ie. when I next see questionable comments), but won't spend much time on this any longer other than more news when appropriate.

I, for one, do not accept the premise that we must learn to live with C19, especially since we had (and have, at least for the moment) the opportunity to flatten the curve, again.

I appreciate the information you provide. I also appreciate the information provided by those of differing views. Please continue doing what you're doing. You're fine.

 

[Ken555]

@Ken555 Here’s an example of something you could omit when you post. There is no need to insult other people in order to share helpful information and help educate us on Tug. I appreciate the data you share but not when it is preceded with this. Then I do not read what follows. I am sure you spent a lot of valuable time researching this and it is appreciated.

I’m going to write whatever I feel is necessary. I’m sorry if you don’t like it, so feel free to block me anytime. I’m glad you appreciated some of my comments, but clearly you don’t see the insults others send my way since you haven’t corrected them. If you’re going to pretend to take the high road, at least try to do so objectively.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[Ken555]

I appreciate the information you provide. I also appreciate the information provided by those of differing views. Please continue doing what you're doing. You're fine.

Thank you.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk