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Coronavirus Cases Are Accelerating Across U.S.

klpca

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California has a mandatory mask policy. I think parts of Florida also have mandatory mask policies. I have friends and family in FL and my friend says masks are required in Dade and Broward counties but I could be wrong. Actually, Just heard on CNN that mask mandate is being enforced in Miami with fines.

Just some anecdotal data. Today I heard we have had about 4-5 covid cases in our small country club community. We have about 300 families living here. The first reported case has already completely recovered and her husband never tested positive. The other families are currently doing a quarantine as they recover. They did contact tracing on all cases and told us when and where they had been. We get weekly updates on the status. Our club is slowing down the reopening and requiring masks, social distancing, hand hygiene, etc.

Also, anyone in California who reports possible symptoms to their doctor is sent for Covid testing first to rule it out before looking at other possibilities. This happened to me and I tested negative, then we figured out the source of my symptoms and I am recovering now.

I have always been more concerned about death rates than cases. I always assumed that when the re-openings started, that cases would go up. I think the media should do more reporting on death rates and compare that to other countries. We might not actually be as bad off as it seems. More testing = more cases. Younger people getting sick = less deaths. Most people do not get severely ill and most recover. Many people are asymptomatic. This has not changed from the beginning of the outbreak. Only the numbers are changing.

I joined a FB group of people who have recovered from Covid. There is some positive news in that group. There was a great story yesterday of someone who has recovered, he has a positive attitude and he is challenging himself to exercise and get involved with life. Of course, I assume that this group would self select so its members would have had more serious cases than average.

I am ready to start carefully getting out of my house. This weekend, we are having some friends over for July 4th weekend. I have not seen them since Thanksgiving so this will be fun. We are just staying home and hanging out, taking walks, eating good meals and going in the pool. I am hoping to drive down to Morgan Hill to visit some other friends as soon as they have time.

I am also looking into volunteer opportunities with CASA (Court Appointed Special Advocates). I was previously approved to volunteer but for personal reasons I did not move forward. The email said "During the pandemic, there has been an immense increase in youth who have been removed from their homes and placed in foster care due to neglect and abuse." I think the timing is right to do something meaningful for my community. I am hoping my approval is still valid so I can participate in the August training. It is being done by Zoom due to Covid. This is a very sad outcome of Covid. To me, abusing children is worse than dying from Covid.

I have been busy this week in looking on how to live my post Covid life. Nothing will be the same anymore, at least not for awhile, but I am tired of isolating at home if there are safe ways to get out.

BTW, I think we are past the mask debate. I was skeptical in the beginning when the advice first changed but I have bought into it for now. (Thanks to TUG, you guys influenced me so these threads do work!) I do not debate it anymore. Like I said in months prior, I have always worn a mask in case it helps. My blue masks finally arrived so I have a good supply now. My husband also found a package of 50 in the store. I think everyone should wear a mask. It is the right thing to do based on what we know today. I wish we had a federal mandate or a consistent state mandate in every state. I am tired of seeing massless people protesting for their rights to spread the disease. The country is in trouble and we need to work together to defeat Covid.
I will be interested in seeing how being a CASA volunteer works for you. I have toyed with the idea for years but being at times and overly empathetic person, I am worried how I would react in certain situations. Please start a thread if you can when you start.
 

CO skier

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Of course testing is important for those who believe they have C19. But the reason experts keep saying we need much more testing is because they want to know the full extent of the spread. So yes, two goals. I really didn’t think I needed to state the obvious about testing those who are sick, but I guess I should have.
Nice backpedal.
 

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So am I. It’s just absurd to say or imply that more tests create more cases. It doesn’t work like that... we need more testing so we know more accurately how many true cases there are. Testing doesn’t create cases...

No, more testing doesn’t explain the rise of covid-19 cases in the U.S.

WHO says record coronavirus numbers is not just because of more testing


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I did not mean to say testing creates cases. What I meant is exactly what you said. I guess I phrased it wrong.
 

TravelTime

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I will be interested in seeing how being a CASA volunteer works for you. I have toyed with the idea for years but being at times and overly empathetic person, I am worried how I would react in certain situations. Please start a thread if you can when you start.
Yes I would love to start a thread and share what I learn and my experience. I hope I hear good news this week that I am already qualified. I really do not want to have to submit a new application.
 

Ken555

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Nice backpedal.
Really? You misinterpret my post and then you don’t believe my expanded explanation. Thanks much.

FWIW, I’m fairly sure I posted on this topic over the last few months re testing. My position re the need for massive testing has been firm from the beginning of this mess. And how you can at all imply that I, or anyone here, would think it’s not important to test those who are ill is just...I don’t know what to say...quite insulting, for sure.


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Ken555

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I did not mean to say testing creates cases. What I meant is exactly what you said. I guess I phrased it wrong.
Yes, thanks. Words are important. Choose carefully. As you can see (scroll up...) we need to be accurate here or else people jump all over.


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TravelTime

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Yes, thanks. Words are important. Choose carefully. As you can see (scroll up...) we need to be accurate here or else people jump all over.


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Yes, I know people here are very particular about words. I am often scared to post because of this. However, I have gotten much better at phrasing things so I don't jumped on as much. In the beginning, almost everything I posted was challenged. :oops:
 
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PigsDad

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Of course it doesn't. More tests DETECT more cases. Which is why "new cases" is a useless measure of the effect of Covid-19. The end result, deaths, is a "truer" measure of the effect of Covid-19.
Personally, I think Covid-19 primary hospitalizations is a better indicator for the severity of the pandemic. It is a leading indicator compared to deaths, it lets us know where we are with regard to overwhelming medical facilities (remember -- that was the main reason for the lockdowns in the first place), and to put it frankly, lessor cases that don't require hospitalizations aren't really that important in the grand scheme of things. Not to sound cold or uncaring, but those lesser cases mostly just inconvenience lives for a bit, and don't tax our medical facilities near as much.

With that said, total number of detected cases is an important indicator on the replication rate, but we have to take other factors other that just total new cases into account when determining severity and what should be done. For example, if there are 100K new cases, but they are all in the 20-30 age range, there may be no need for concern, whereas if those same 100K new cases are in the 70+ range, there would be major concern, simply because the data to date has shown this disease affects the elderly much more severely vs. the young by many orders of magnitude.

Kurt
 
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geist1223

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I know this issue has been beaten to death. But my understanding is that you test to determine the spread of Covid19. The goal is a positive rate of 5% or less, which shows the spread is being controlled.
 

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Personally, I think Covid-19 primary hospitalizations is a better indicator for the severity of the pandemic. It is a leading indicator compared to deaths, it lets us know where we are with regard to overwhelming medical facilities (remember -- that was the main reason for the lockdowns in the first place), and to put it frankly, lessor cases that don't require hospitalizations aren't really that important in the grand scheme of things. Not to sound cold or uncaring, but those lesser cases mostly just inconvenience lives for a bit, and don't tax our medical facilities near as much.

With that said, total number of detected cases is an important indicator on the replication rate, but we have to take other factors other that just total new cases into account when determining severity and what should be done. For example, if there are 100K new cases, but they are all in the 20-30 age range, there may be no need for concern, whereas if those same 100K new cases are in the 70+ range, there would be major concern, simply because the data to date has shown this disease affects the elderly much more severely vs. the young by many orders of magnitude.

Kurt
I see news sounding the alarm about hospitals in the sunbelt. I'm extremely skeptical now of the headlines / "hooks" I read these days...Call me when any hospital or hospital system in CA, AZ, FL, etc. unilaterally decides to cancel elective procedures because of over crowding.
 

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Tracking cases by county level:
(Data compiled by Harvard Global Health scientists)

This is a way to track community spread, and to compare one community to another, esp. if you are planning on traveling, and want to assess the risk in the other community.

Note: Hawaii is the *only* state that is green in the country.

Also from Harvard, is a way to looking at how much testing is still needed state-by-state to successful mitigate, and then suppress the virus. It looks like about the half the states are no where near the level they need to be. It seems like much of the country wasted March and April SAH orders to ramp up the needed testing and contract tracing capabilities to where it really needed to be to successfully re-open, without risking having to shut down again.

I also really like this site, which is linked to in the first NPR article. It's a way of compiling the best research available, and providing POLICY MAKERS across the country with specific metrics and goals for those metrics to inform decision-making. Data-driven decision-making is my favorite. :) https://www.covidlocal.org/metrics/
 
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Conan

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I see news sounding the alarm about hospitals in the sunbelt. I'm extremely skeptical now of the headlines / "hooks" I read these days...Call me when any hospital or hospital system in CA, AZ, FL, etc. unilaterally decides to cancel elective procedures because of over crowding.

 

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@Conan Thank you for sharing this. During the height of all this (March, April), I used to listen to a weekly "community update" that an administrator from our local hospital system would provide regarding hospital rates, vent usage, etc. It was very informative as I know zero about hospital administration. It was such a different tone from what I was hearing in our local media. I recognize all parties have competing agendas when communicating so it makes my brain go crazy knowing what to believe sometimes. Nonetheless, I feel really awful for people who are gearing up for elective procedures just to get put on hold.
 

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More testing is just another unrealistic goal the media is setting. In many places, they cannot test more than the people who show up for testing, it is that simple. When so many tests are already negative, testing a bit more does not do any good from a statistical POV if it is not done randomly. We have a poll for every silly political question but we do not have a national random test every week for Covid. Somebody there does not want us to know if we are actually doing better.
 
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"Roger"

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Here are some quotes from a Miami Herald article (behind a fire wall) about hospitalizations in Miami Dade county. While info for all of Florida would me more interesting, Florida only reports hospitalizations without any specific info about how many of those hospitalizations are coVid-19 cases. I believe that Florida might be the only state to have resisted providing more specific information. They are under pressure to change that policy.

Miami-Dade is the state's hardest hit county with more the 36,000 cases and nearly 1,000 deaths to date. On Tuesday, more that 1,200 patients with COVID-19 filled local hospital beds -- more than at any point during the pandemic. About 245 patients with the disease were in an intensive care unit and 103 needed a ventilator.
AHCA, which regulates hospitals, maintains a dashboard that showed less than 20% of adult ICU beds and about 22% of acute care hospital beds statewide were available on Tuesday. But the dashboard does not reflect additional ICU and patient capacity that hospitals can create by converting beds and making other changes.
Jackson Health System, the county's public hospital network, reported 265 total patients in the hospital with the disease on Tuesday. About 40 percent of those patients tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, after they had been to the hospital for another reason...Migoya [a spokesperson for the hospital] noted that every patient who tests positive must be isolated, and that hospital staff who care for them must use more costly protective gear, such as N-95 respirator masks, face shields, gowns and gloves.

I have presented this with the belief that more info is better than less info. Rather than jumping in and saying that this phrase supports me, no, that sentence supports my point of view, can we just let everyone read what is above and make their own decisions?
 

klpca

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Tracking cases by county level:
(Data compiled by Harvard Global Health scientists)

This is a way to track community spread, and to compare one community to another, esp. if you are planning on traveling, and want to assess the risk in the other community.

Note: Hawaii is the *only* state that is green in the country.

Also from Harvard, is a way to looking at how much testing is still needed state-by-state to successful mitigate, and then suppress the virus. It looks like about the half the states are no where near the level they need to be. It seems like much of the country wasted March and April SAH orders to ramp up the needed testing and contract tracing capabilities to where it really needed to be to successfully re-open, without risking having to shut down again.

I also really like this site, which is linked to in the first NPR article. It's a way of compiling the best research available, and providing POLICY MAKERS across the country with specific metrics and goals for those metrics to inform decision-making. Data-driven decision-making is my favorite. :) https://www.covidlocal.org/metrics/
Thanks for posting this. I agree with your statement that I bolded, Data-driven decision-making is my favorite. . Making decisions based upon guesses, even educated guesses, can run counter to what the data will clearly show. I see this every week in my line of work (finance). You have to run the numbers because numbers don't lie.

I'm so frustrated that everything that we did in the spring was essentially wasted effort. I think that putting the genie back in the bottle won't happen but if everyone would do the cheap and easy thing (wearing a mask) we could get this back under some sort of control much sooner.
 

PigsDad

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More testing is just another unrealistic goal the media is setting. In many places, they cannot test more than the people who show up for testing, it is that simple.
I just read that a major testing site in Denver is reducing hours due to not being able to obtain enough test kits. It stated that with the new outbreaks in AZ, TX, CA and FL, test kits were being prioritized in those areas and we couldn't get as many here in CO.

Kurt
 

bluehende

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I just read that a major testing site in Denver is reducing hours due to not being able to obtain enough test kits. It stated that with the new outbreaks in AZ, TX, CA and FL, test kits were being prioritized in those areas and we couldn't get as many here in CO.

Kurt
DE is a microcosm of this. About 3 weeks ago we went to tests for all with no order and free. Worked well until our southern county which is a tourist beach area had a surge. Now the northern part of the state has limited tests with very little availability for appointments now. The tests were diverted to the beach area specifically for restaurant and bar workers.
 

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I just read that a major testing site in Denver is reducing hours due to not being able to obtain enough test kits. It stated that with the new outbreaks in AZ, TX, CA and FL, test kits were being prioritized in those areas and we couldn't get as many here in CO.

Kurt
with 19 out of 20 tests being negative, there is enough testing capacity. I think some also fake the symptoms just to get a test done, out of curiosity. Many people admitted doing that on social media but of course there is no way of knowing how many
 

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More testing is just another unrealistic goal the media is setting. In many places, they cannot test more than the people who show up for testing, it is that simple. When so many tests are already negative, testing a bit more does not do any good from a statistical POV if it is not done randomly. We have a poll for every silly political question but we do not have a national random test every week for Covid. Somebody there does not want us to know if we are actually doing better.
Correct. (So far) big brother has not forced random people to be tested, and testing only those who volunteer, usually with symptoms, has next to zero statistical value as to overall prevalence in the population. Also so many positive people show little to no symptoms, with no ill effects.

Simply bean counting positive tests under the current system, then running chicken little because raw positive numbers are increasing is foolish.

Experts have said from the beginning that we can't stop the spread of this virus, only slow it down. So most if not all will get it. Now many of these experts are saying it's likely too late to even control it with any measures, as it has made it to too many people.

At this point it would seem better off if those who have a next to 0 chance of any serious illness (those under 25), all get the illness and recover, creating a natural buffer for those more at risk. Those at risk should stay quarantined.
 

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Correct. (So far) big brother has not forced random people to be tested, and testing only those who volunteer, usually with symptoms, has next to zero statistical value as to overall prevalence in the population. Also so many positive people show little to no symptoms, with no ill effects.

Simply bean counting positive tests under the current system, then running chicken little because raw positive numbers are increasing is foolish.

Experts have said from the beginning that we can't stop the spread of this virus, only slow it down. So most if not all will get it. Now many of these experts are saying it's likely too late to even control it with any measures, as it has made it to too many people.

At this point it would seem better off if those who have a next to 0 chance of any serious illness (those under 25), all get the illness and recover, creating a natural buffer for those more at risk. Those at risk should stay quarantined.

you say most people will eventually get the coronavirus ?

I hope I don't get it !

coron.jpg


https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/07/01/coronavirus-autopsies-findings/
 

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At this point it would seem better off if those who have a next to 0 chance of any serious illness (those under 25), all get the illness and recover, creating a natural buffer for those more at risk. Those at risk should stay quarantined.
But that would make too much sense! I would say even under 35.
 
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