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Confused by Covid-19 stats for LA and Norcal testing

b2bailey

b2bailey

TUG Review Crew
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Recent news stories about possible large-scale early infections have got me confused. Perhaps there is a simple explanation.

If there were possibly 100,000 cases of Covid-19 earlier than was first believed, why weren't any of those people dying?
 
b2bailey said:
Recent news stories about possible large-scale early infections have got me confused. Perhaps there is a simple explanation.

If there were possibly 100,000 cases of Covid-19 earlier than was first believed, why weren't any of those people dying?
Click to expand...
Maybe some were dying. They were too early for the media/epidemioligical hype surrounding Covid-19.

Last November, I experienced 2 days of unusually high fever, chills, and debilitating fatigue. It came and went over 60 hours; it was weird. Was I an early victim of Covid-19? Who knows?
 
CO skier said:
Maybe some were dying. They were too early for the media/epidemioligical hype surrounding Covid-19.

Last November, I experienced 2 days of unusually high fever, chills, and debilitating fatigue. It came and went over 60 hours; it was weird. Was I an early victim of Covid-19? Who knows?
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Yes, I understand about what are now considered 'mild' cases. In fact I would like to have the antibodies test because I had an unusual illness in mid-January. I flew from Kauai to San Francisco and had a long layover at SFO. Less than a week later, I was at home and had fever and fatigue where I couldn't get out of bed for two days. I had CVS deliver some over the counter meds and slowly started to feel better.

My question is, why weren't there some cases of the serious variety stirring up curiosity like it did in the early days in Wuhan. How could 100,000 cases in LA stay under the radar?
 
It might have seemed enough like the flu for patients and doctors to not be concerned.

I don't know when doctors received info on it. Bigger hospitals or connected to a university or research would be sooner than country doc at little hospital.

It could in fact be that some of those died but cause was not attributed to coronavirus but whatever malady they presented with.
 
b2bailey said:
Recent news stories about possible large-scale early infections have got me confused. Perhaps there is a simple explanation.

If there were possibly 100,000 cases of Covid-19 earlier than was first believed, why weren't any of those people dying?
Click to expand...

Where dI’d you see the data stating there were 100,000 cases of Covid earlier than first believed? I have read about the LA and Santa Clara studies and I do not recall them saying this but maybe I missed it. From what I recall, these studies estimated that more people have actually had Covid than previously believed, thereby lowering the mortality rate.
 
My DH works in Santa Clara county. He was very sick in February. We kept hypothesizing that he might have had covid, even back then. With the first death identified in Santa Clara county as far back as Feb 6th, this seems like a real possibility now. But I did not get it so maybe I was asymptomatic or maybe I just did not get it.
 
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TravelTime said:
Where dI’d you see the data stating there were 100,000 cases of Covid earlier than first believed? I have read about the LA and Santa Clara studies and I do not recall them saying this but maybe I missed it. From what I recall, these studies estimated that more people have actually had Covid than previously believed, thereby lowering the mortality rate.
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This was from data extrapolated from L.A. antibody testing similar to th e Stanford report.
 
I also experienced an unusual illness in January unlike I had ever had before. We had just visited Disneyland over New Years (very crowded), and I work frequently in Santa Clara County. I hope to take an antibody test when it is available.
 
b2bailey said:
This was from data extrapolated from L.A. antibody testing similar to th e Stanford report.
Click to expand...

Okay, I missed that piece of data when I read the stories. But it is believable given that they are now saying that the first covid death was on Feb 6 in Santa Clara county and they think they might even find some deaths before that.
 
I wonder why new yorks death rate seems so high and I did read somewhere that they believed the infections in New York came from Europe vs Asia. Whereas Europe seems to have more deaths (Spain & Italy) vs the Asian countries could there possibly be some mutation that makes it more deadly?

I am sure someone is looking at this but haven't seen any articles
 
There has been a growing consensus that Covid19 was here long before March, as we didn't even test for it. The new story about the first known death having been in Santa Clara Feb. 6 proves this is the case, especially as these had no known travel to China. Had to be circulating in January or earlier.

There are likely hundreds or more that died this winter that are attributed to flu, or simply "pneumonia." In the end, the pulmonary damage that kills is hard to differentiate by cause, especially if not specifically looking for something else.

CDC was reporting early that this was an especially bad flu season, with higher death count. Likely some or many were COVID19 related.

A family member of ours had pneumonia in mid February, in the ICU and hospital for over 2 weeks. ID docs thought it was TB, but tests were -. Could not grow any bacterial cultures or identify a known virus such as influenza.

I am hopeful that many more contracted the virus, did not die, and hopefully have some heightened or full immunity than we currently know.

I presume there are hundreds if not thousands of similar reports that exist if they could be aggregated.
 
chellej said:
I wonder why new yorks death rate seems so high and I did read somewhere that they believed the infections in New York came from Europe vs Asia. Whereas Europe seems to have more deaths (Spain & Italy) vs the Asian countries could there possibly be some mutation that makes it more deadly?

I am sure someone is looking at this but haven't seen any articles
Click to expand...
I've read some articles about exactly this, but can't locate them right now.

They are also saying that extended contact with a contagious person may make you much sicker. Whereas if you get more incidental exposure you can build antibodies, fight it off, and have little to no symptoms.

The areas that are hit the worst are the most densely compacted communities where people remain closely around others, such as nursing homes and big cities.

East coasters in some areas are packed like sardines, and stay indoors in the winter, likely exposing themselves over and over again to infected people. On the west coast (and Florida) we are outdoors and at the beach much more in winter. This is why viruses like the flu primarily kill in the winter.
 
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