If you or a friend has another desktop, I would recommend disconnecting the hard drive, plugging it into the other computer and see if that computer starts to boot up. It may look ugly at first based on drivers, but you'll know if its a hard drive problem or something else.
I'd say it's 50/50 for power supply/hard drive. The last person I did personal work for had the same symptom, and when I tested the hard drive in my tower, it was fried. But I've also seen this symptom a lot with power supplies on desktops.