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Businesses that won’t survive the Pandemic

SmithOp

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There is an interesting article on Forbes about businesses that will forever be changed by the pandemic. I wont link the article because its probably a paywall and even if you get through its loaded with ads. It was on my phone news feed.

Here is a summary with my comments/opinions.

1. Real estate/office Rentals - CEOs are realizing employees can work at home economically with the advances in tech and high cost of rented office space. Biggest victim CBRE, owners of high rise office buildings, keeping the lights on is draining the balance sheet.

2. Brick/mortar departments stores - older people staying at home are realizing they can shop from home conveniently. Macys, Neiman Marcus, Kohls, etc all ready to file bankruptcy. The business model of owning large store buildings will not be sustainable. I will miss shopping the clearance rack at Kohls.

3. Movie theaters - AMC lost over half its valuation, nearing bankruptcy. Universal is refusing to give theaters their 90 day advantage over streaming services, released Trolls 2 online and made a boatload of money, more than what was shared with theaters. All the streaming services are taking off with stay at home, lots dropped all fees and offered free service to entice new viewers.

Amazon is sniffing around AMC for a possible purchase, I could see this sale happening, Prime members could book cheap seats in those new recliners recently installed. AMC has a ton of debt on the books while Amazon has a ton of cash reserves.

Amazon may also be interested in the retail stores, they already have deals with Kohls for people to return Amazon purchases. Make them return centers and sell off returned items like a thrift store?


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plpgma

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I couldn't agree more -- these are the very things I've been thinking about/worrying over as I survail life as we are now living it. Make no doubt about it -- Things will change!

With that being said, it is quite possible that not all of the changes will be bad -- in fact, sometimes forced change is the very thing necessary to help people see things in a different way and move forward accordingly.

I have great hope and optimism in American ingenuity!
 

CalGalTraveler

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+1 I would add: most business conventions for the same reasons as #1 above. This is a trend that was accelerated by Covid-19. Businesses will seek to reduce spending on employee travel limiting to senior executives/critical personnel/outside sales. Most conferences for mid/low level employees will transition to online webinars.
 

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most business conventions for the same reasons as #1 above.
agree. DH still goes to some large continuing ed veterinary conferences, but he could just as easily go to a smaller one. He's been using voom to listen to C19 stats/medical developments--no reason regional vet/medical conf couldn't be done via zoom. State Boards are starting to allow CE to be online vs in person attendance.

Movie theaters had to already been on the downswing? My teens go to about 3 movies a year as a social thing with friends. We go as a family maybe 1-2X. But we stream all the time. With the great TVs, unless it's something like Star Wars, where Dolby sound etc. are cool, I'm fine to watch at home. Plus, it's close to $100 for tickets/popcorn/drinks for family of 4 vs. $10 or less to stream a new or almost new release.
 
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elaine

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With that being said, it is quite possible that not all of the changes will be bad -- in fact, sometimes forced change is the very thing necessary to help people see things in a different way and move forward accordingly.
I grew up shopping at the mall as a hobby and social thing. What a ridiculous way to spend time and don't think all that materialism/consumerism was good for anyone. (n)I also worked mixing paint at Sears--now that had a purpose.
 

b2bailey

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Professional sports using indoor arenas?
I was thinking about professional sports players -- many of them way over paid in my opinion. Are they collecting unemployment or do their contracts call for full payment? How about all the referees and umpires? It's like every day we peel off another layer of the onion as we recognize the magnitude and upheaval that has occurred. I was speaking to a friend who has a brother who has been a successful symphony hall musician. No work in sight for him. The internet employment line has the strangest cast of characters.
 

dioxide45

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I am not sure about movie theaters. While people like streaming, there are current regulations that prevent studios from owning theaters. So I don't know how Amazon's attempt to purchase AMC will work out as they have their own studio. Theaters are struggling, they have been for a while. People go to the theater for the experience, paying $10 a pop. Release something to streaming at $20 doesn't bring in as much money. Trolls World Tour probably only did as good as it did because of stay at home orders. Given the choice, people would probably just do something else instead of paying $20 for a movie to watch on their TV. Would the Marvel franchise been as big as it was with straight to streaming? Probably not. Some movies are just better experienced in a theater.
 

DaveNV

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Some movies are just better experienced in a theater.

That's my feeling about this. I don't go to the movie theater often, but when I do, it's to see a "big" movie that is better on a big screen than on my TV at home. But after I've seen it once, I'd rather buy a DVD or stream it to watch at home, so I can make my own commercials. If I go the the movies twice a year, it's a busy year. About once is more my style. Just not feeling it these days.

Maybe it's charging me outrageous prices for munchies that cost pennies on the dollar. It's like buying a timeshare from the Developer. LOL! :)

Dave
 

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Professional sports using indoor arenas?
I was thinking about professional sports players -- many of them way over paid in my opinion. Are they collecting unemployment or do their contracts call for full payment? How about all the referees and umpires? It's like every day we peel off another layer of the onion as we recognize the magnitude and upheaval that has occurred. I was speaking to a friend who has a brother who has been a successful symphony hall musician. No work in sight for him. The internet employment line has the strangest cast of characters.

yes, but I think professional sports players (NBA, NFL, etc) are not collecting unemployment, they're still getting paid as well as referees and umpires
 

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It is also my understanding that the professional players are still getting paid the ridiculous sums of money in their contracts. I do not understand though the flow of money. Are the clubs still getting paid by the TV stations for games that have been cancelled? Are the TV stations getting the advertising revenue for games they are not broadcasting? Or all the owners have decided to pay the players from their own pocket?
 

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NBA players are suppose to lose 1% for each game that is not played. Season is still suspended so they may get a chance to earn the rest of the salary. Money has started to be held back.
 

bbodb1

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It is hard to believe the NFL seems to be moving forward as if everything is going to be normal but that is the perception they seem to be conveying.
 

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Many of our employees have done really well working from home. We will discuss shrinking office space going forward.

As far as movie theaters go, I think I've been twice in the last ten years. I've got a large TV with a full surround system. Most Hollywood movies are so awful these days that I'd rather not blow the cash for a clunker.
 

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It is hard to believe the NFL seems to be moving forward as if everything is going to be normal but that is the perception they seem to be conveying.

Yes, it does. But from what I've heard, it's also developed a "contingency plan".

It seems like a few things are slowly getting back to normal and that the NFL has time for that to take place before the scheduled start to its regular season. I guess the big question that the NFL faces is By September, will there be 70,000 fans willing to pack into stadiums with all of this social distancing protocol?
 

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2. Brick/mortar departments stores - older people staying at home are realizing they can shop from home conveniently. Macys, Neiman Marcus, Kohls, etc all ready to file bankruptcy. The business model of owning large store buildings will not be sustainable. I will miss shopping the clearance rack at Kohls.

3. Movie theaters - AMC lost over half its valuation, nearing bankruptcy. Universal is refusing to give theaters their 90 day advantage over streaming services, released Trolls 2 online and made a boatload of money, more than what was shared with theaters. All the streaming services are taking off with stay at home, lots dropped all fees and offered free service to entice new viewers.

As for #2, I would have to say that that had started well before the pandemic. The pandemic has merely expedited and exacerbated the problem. Online shopping has made comparison shopping much more convenient as less time-consuming.

As for # 3, again, the process started before the pandemic but has been accelerated by it. Now with 60" TVs and streaming services costing relatively little, it does not make much sense to spend money on gas, parking, admissions, & refreshments when you can get a similar experience at home. Add to that, the convenience of watching at home on your schedule and pausing and rewinding at your convenience, you can see why home theatre is slowly crushing the cinema experience.
 

klpca

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Many of our employees have done really well working from home. We will discuss shrinking office space going forward.
I am glad to hear that you recognize this, because both my husband and I have experienced it first hand. There is hope!

Working without constant interruptions is amazing - you can get things done so quickly. Yet both of our employers are chomping at the bit to get everyone back in the office. He was in the office for a day last week for something that couldn't be done at home and overheard one of the few people that was working on-site complaining about the drop in productivity with the people working from home. I wonder if that drop is with the people who have young kids at home. That would be understandable. But my husband? No way. He is working an extra hour every day since he's not commuting, and he can work for hours without saying a word. There's no way that someone that focused on work is less productive. I am not quite that focused, but working at home allows me to have blocks of uninterrupted time, something that I never have at the office. I have to listen to other people's phone calls all day long, followed by interruptions when they are not on the phone. Working on a complicated task without the audible distractions is amazing. It's easier to solve the difficult issues when you can work on it in a linear fashion. If I had a better set up at home it would be even better - two large monitors and a faster printer would be the icing on the cake, but since I will probably have to go back to the office, I am loathe to make the investment. There's no way that my employer will be picking up the tab.
 

bbodb1

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@klpca - though you are probably already aware of this, monitor prices have dropped to such a point where a very good monitor can be had for not much money. I caught a HP 23 inch monitor for $59 on sale at Best Buy not all that long ago (but of course, prices do fluctuate). Just wanted to make sure you were aware of this in case you wanted to expand your home office options.
 

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It is hard to believe the NFL seems to be moving forward as if everything is going to be normal but that is the perception they seem to be conveying.

I like it and find it easy to believe (they are moving forward). What's the alternative?
 

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There is an interesting article on Forbes about businesses that will forever be changed by the pandemic. I wont link the article because its probably a paywall and even if you get through its loaded with ads. It was on my phone news feed.

Here is a summary with my comments/opinions.

1. Real estate/office Rentals - CEOs are realizing employees can work at home economically with the advances in tech and high cost of rented office space. Biggest victim CBRE, owners of high rise office buildings, keeping the lights on is draining the balance sheet.

2. Brick/mortar departments stores - older people staying at home are realizing they can shop from home conveniently. Macys, Neiman Marcus, Kohls, etc all ready to file bankruptcy. The business model of owning large store buildings will not be sustainable. I will miss shopping the clearance rack at Kohls.

3. Movie theaters - AMC lost over half its valuation, nearing bankruptcy. Universal is refusing to give theaters their 90 day advantage over streaming services, released Trolls 2 online and made a boatload of money, more than what was shared with theaters. All the streaming services are taking off with stay at home, lots dropped all fees and offered free service to entice new viewers.

Amazon is sniffing around AMC for a possible purchase, I could see this sale happening, Prime members could book cheap seats in those new recliners recently installed. AMC has a ton of debt on the books while Amazon has a ton of cash reserves.

Amazon may also be interested in the retail stores, they already have deals with Kohls for people to return Amazon purchases. Make them return centers and sell off returned items like a thrift store?


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shopping for shoes, intimate apparel, and fitted clothes is horrible online, unless you are a perfect size in every body shape. I am not able to do it. Sitting on my butt for any extra length of time, is not healthy, where at least walking a shopping mall is giving. you some benefit. I hope malls can improve their stores. Binge watching TV and wasting away on the computer is not any healthier. And the movie theater is also a social experience. I love the way the environment has come back cleaner. So I wish there were away to keep the excessive traffic off the roads longer. I have actually felt healthier during this shutdown without all the air pollution. We have had the best weather in May in south florida, than I can remember in over 5 years. It has not been hot or sticky. It has been Breezy, cooler and I don't smell the exhaust from the roads. Hoping people will appreciate it and not go back to their old litter, pollute, excessive driving, and they Social distance til this virus is gone,and help make life happy again. I have met more neighbors than before with people out walking in the neighborhoods, instead of the cars barreling down the streets. Praying the virus goes away, and people get well, and act responsibly.
 

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@klpca - though you are probably already aware of this, monitor prices have dropped to such a point where a very good monitor can be had for not much money. I caught a HP 23 inch monitor for $59 on sale at Best Buy not all that long ago (but of course, prices do fluctuate). Just wanted to make sure you were aware of this in case you wanted to expand your home office options.
This is true - I hadn't even looked at prices recently, but at that price I should just grab a couple! Just like TV's - our last one was a big Pioneer plasma that seemed to be expensive at the time. Our most recent purchase was something from Costco (can't remember the name) but it was something like $375 for a 55" TV. Thanks for the heads up.
 

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Probably employees and employers have a different notion of what productivity means.

To the OP, I do not see sectors that will not survive, rather individual companies that were over-leveraged before the pandemic and do not have the resources to continue their operations. A good example is office buildings. Most leases are signed for several years so, if they survive, the companies may not reduce office space right away. How much space will be reduced in time? I do not know but say it will be 10%. Can these companies survive with 85-90% average occupancy? Probably yes and the market has already adjusted the REIT market values accordingly. I do not see them priced for bankruptcy though. Also, in time some of that loss may be offset by population growth. I also hope that core downtown areas will not be vacated instantly and permanently because they may just exacerbate the degradation of certain areas like in SFO. I am curious of what the pension funds will do. In the last 10 years many have reduced their exposure to bonds because the yields have been dropping and increased significantly their exposure to real estate. Are they going to start to sell at a big loss and exacerbate a downward trend? I doubt it but of course I have no crystal ball.
 

bbodb1

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I like it and find it easy to believe (they are moving forward). What's the alternative?

That's a very fair question.
And let's be honest, the NFL may be many things good and bad, but they are seldom ill prepared when it comes to money related issues. Having said that, is the NFL prepared to start games on time and with full stadiums? If so, how are they going to accomplish this in a safe and secure manner? If the league has a plan in place, it should be in the open to allow people to gain confidence in the measures the league will be taking. There have been speculative articles on this question on various websites but I don't think any one (or any league) has anything close to a fool proof plan on how to resume play or begin a season. Openness about plans will help raise confidence and allow others to find any potential weaknesses in the plans. I just don't see that happening with the NFL at this point.
 

rickandcindy23

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I love movie theaters. There is nothing like sitting in a movie theater without worrying about the outside world for a few hours. We used to go on Tuesdays only for the benefits, AMC Brighton, CO, just a few miles from our house. I miss it. The theaters usually had 30 people or less, so I think it would be fine to go again. When on vacation, like Orlando, we drove to West Oaks Mall to see our movies without the crowds of Pleasure Island or Universal. I think they charged us $3.75 per seat at the West Oaks Mall AMC. The popcorn was the same price as home, but so cheap for a movie on a Tuesday. Theaters almost always empty.

My niece worked for Alamo Theaters with the food delivered to your seat for years, and now she hasn't worked in months. It's been hard on my niece and nephew. I feel badly for them. But then again, they do live with my sister and have lived with her for 18 months, so they are sheltered and have plenty to eat.
 

b2bailey

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I love movie theaters. There is nothing like sitting in a movie theater without worrying about the outside world for a few hours. We used to go on Tuesdays only for the benefits, AMC Brighton, CO, just a few miles from our house. I miss it. The theaters usually had 30 people or less, so I think it would be fine to go again. When on vacation, like Orlando, we drove to West Oaks Mall to see our movies without the crowds of Pleasure Island or Universal. I think they charged us $3.75 per seat at the West Oaks Mall AMC. The popcorn was the same price as home, but so cheap for a movie on a Tuesday. Theaters almost always empty.

My niece worked for Alamo Theaters with the food delivered to your seat for years, and now she hasn't worked in months. It's been hard on my niece and nephew. I feel badly for them. But then again, they do live with my sister and have lived with her for 18 months, so they are sheltered and have plenty to eat.
Cindy, I'm with you. There was a lot of money invested in redoing theaters with the fancy amenities. They lowered capacity significantly. Awhile back I viewed a movie in an "old-fashioned" theater and I was very uncomfortable . I can imagine those theaters closing.

Note: Laughing at myself because I started the last sentence with "recently" but went back and changed it. I haven't done anything "recently" since I've been under SIP since March 13.
 

Old Hickory

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That's a very fair question.
And let's be honest, the NFL may be many things good and bad, but they are seldom ill prepared when it comes to money related issues. Having said that, is the NFL prepared to start games on time and with full stadiums? If so, how are they going to accomplish this in a safe and secure manner? If the league has a plan in place, it should be in the open to allow people to gain confidence in the measures the league will be taking. There have been speculative articles on this question on various websites but I don't think any one (or any league) has anything close to a fool proof plan on how to resume play or begin a season. Openness about plans will help raise confidence and allow others to find any potential weaknesses in the plans. I just don't see that happening with the NFL at this point.

I think you answered all your concerns in the first sentence.
 
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