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Biden announces sweeping vaccine mandates affecting millions of workers

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DannyTS

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BTW...I agree with your #1 that Delta has changed the game and the breakthrough % has increased. (I just gave you a hypothetical 10%)

Bottom line: There is overwhelming evidence that states that have lower vax rates have higher case rates per 100,000 with overwhelming hospitalizations of unvaxxed. (There was an excellent state comparison chart posted in this forum but I cannot find. Would love it if the person that posted it would repost here.)

To blame the vaxxed for rampant case rates is not supported by the data. If it were true, one would expect to see the states with the highest cases per 100,000 as the highest vaxxed states, and those hospitals in highly vaxxed states would be rationing care That is simply not the case. Therefore if vaxxed are spreading the virus in high vaxxed states, it is passing to people protected by the vaccine and thus the vaccine is doing its job by disabling the virus.

Besides if vaxxed were to blame for spreading the disease - what's the alternative? Shut everything down? That's not feasible.
The virus has a certain degree of unpredictability, judging the number of the infections at a single moment in time is a mistake imo. Think last year, there was always a place that was doing better or worse at any given time, not the same states all the time.

Virologists say that the flu usually starts in the South and then it moves North. You would also expect that with Covid. When it is really hot in the South, people generally socialize more inside and that helps transmit the virus. Also the schools start at different dates, not only they can marginally increase the transmission but they also come with a huge number of tests that end up in the official numbers.

When we are talking about the immunity of a state, you also do not have to leave out the natural immunity. Some states (NJ, NY for example) did really poorly last year so a high percentage of the population was already immune. One can argue, the vaccination rate of a state, a city or a street is also a factor of how they were affected by the previous waves. The more cases around them in the past, the more people wanted to vaccinate. Would you expect more vaccines among farmers, who may have not had any covid, or among those who live in an apartment building in New York? As you can see, the overlap between vaccines and previous infections can be quite high and the vaccine may not necessarily play the out-sized role you may expect in the overall immunity of a community.

"Broadly speaking, earlier starts are more common in the South and Southwest: In a rough band of 13 states stretching from Arizona to Florida and up to South Carolina, 79% of the districts we examined will be back in school by the end of this week. Later starts are more common along the East Coast (from Maine to North Carolina), the upper Midwest (Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan) and the Northwest (Oregon and Washington)."

 

Roger830

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A study from UK, "Covid-19 Vaccine Mandates Are Now Pointless: Covid-19 vaccines do not keep people from catching the prevailing Delta variant and passing it to others."

"This means the PCR tests showed that vaccinated and unvaccinated infected people were carrying similar amounts of virus in their upper respiratory tracts at diagnosis and were thus equally infectious."

 

bluehende

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A study from UK, "Covid-19 Vaccine Mandates Are Now Pointless: Covid-19 vaccines do not keep people from catching the prevailing Delta variant and passing it to others."

"This means the PCR tests showed that vaccinated and unvaccinated infected people were carrying similar amounts of virus in their upper respiratory tracts at diagnosis and were thus equally infectious."

But as usual they do not normalize the data by age or risk factors and come up with a number that they want. It is real easy to explain. Older people are vaccinated at a much higher rate than young people. They are doing the equivalent of saying that covid has about a 2% death rate (see us cases vs deaths) and then assuming that a 12 yr old who gets an infection now has a 2% chance of death. That is ridiculous. Now show me the percentage of people that have tested positive by age, vaccinated vs unvaccinated and you have a real comparison.


from your opinion piece.


The authors conclude that both of the earlier UK-approved vaccines
(BioNTech/Pfizer and Oxford-AstraZeneca) have lost some efficacy against Delta compared to
Alpha. But both vaccines, they maintain, remain substantially effective at keeping people from
becoming infected with the Delta strain, in the range of 67 to 80%.
 

DannyTS

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But as usual they do not normalize the data by age or risk factors and come up with a number that they want. It is real easy to explain. Older people are vaccinated at a much higher rate than young people. They are doing the equivalent of saying that covid has about a 2% death rate (see us cases vs deaths) and then assuming that a 12 yr old who gets an infection now has a 2% chance of death. That is ridiculous. Now show me the percentage of people that have tested positive by age, vaccinated vs unvaccinated and you have a real comparison.


from your opinion piece.


The authors conclude that both of the earlier UK-approved vaccines
(BioNTech/Pfizer and Oxford-AstraZeneca) have lost some efficacy against Delta compared to
Alpha. But both vaccines, they maintain, remain substantially effective at keeping people from
becoming infected with the Delta strain, in the range of 67 to 80%.
I like your thinking. Why do they show the number of people who were 85 year old and died with Covid (the average age of a Covid death in Canada) to tell a 12 year old that he desperately needs a vaccine when his risks are higher from the vaccine than from the virus?
 
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HitchHiker71

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BTW...I agree with your #1 that Delta has changed the game and the breakthrough % has increased. (I just gave you a hypothetical 10%). But it is far from 100%.

Bottom line: There is overwhelming evidence that states that have lower vax rates have higher case rates per 100,000 with overwhelming hospitalizations of unvaxxed. (There was an excellent state comparison chart posted in this forum but I cannot find. Would love it if the person that posted it would repost here.)

To blame the vaxxed for rampant case rates is not supported by the data. If it were true, one would expect to see the states with the highest cases per 100,000 as the highest vaxxed states, and those hospitals in highly vaxxed states would be rationing care That is simply not the case. Therefore if vaxxed are spreading the virus in high vaxxed states, it is passing to people protected by the vaccine and thus the vaccine is doing its job by disabling the virus.

Besides if vaxxed were to blame for spreading the disease - what's the alternative? Shut everything down? That's not feasible.
You may be referring to data I shared from KFF as follows:



This data was excerpted from the following article (in itself worthy of reading):


It should be clearly noted that this dataset is effective 7/31/2021 - so the dataset shared does not yet reflect the reality of the delta outbreak. It is also important to note that only a subset of states are still tracking and reporting the data to produce the chart - which is why only a subset of states are reflected. I expect this dataset to change substantively based upon the delta variant and other newer variants that evade the vaccine as is demonstrated by the lower published efficacy rates.


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CalGalTraveler

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Thanks @HitchHiker71 this is a good chart. Thanks for trying. The one I was referring to may have been posted by @Brett. It is a 4 quadrant chart and has high vax/ low hospitalization rates in the lower quadrant and the low vax/ high hospitalization rate in the upper quadrant. States are the datapoints plotted on the chart. It was posted about a month ago.
 

bluehende

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\


Thanks @HitchHiker71 this is a good chart. Thanks for trying. The one I was referring to may have been posted by @Brett. It is a 4 quadrant chart and has high vax/ low hospitalization rates in the lower quadrant and the low vax/ high hospitalization rate in the upper quadrant. States are the datapoints plotted on the chart. It was posted about a month ago.
Not exactly what you were asking for but the same data.

This is from a month ago long after the delta variant was dominant.

full article https://www.11alive.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/covid-vaccines-in-georgia-comparison-10-best-and-worst-states/85-717c5d23-3c21-49ad-a276-8aed59a09a6c

Here's what we found:

10 worst states

The 10 worst states, which includes Georgia, are dealing with more than 14,000 people hospitalized and 254 deaths. An average of 38% of those living there are fully vaccinated.

10 best states

In the 10 best states, only 1,400 people are in the hospital and 32 deaths. Around 62% of that population is vaccinated.

Both groups have about the same number people, which means COVID patients in states with low vaccination rates have 10-times higher hospitalization rates and are 7 times more likely to die.

 

CalGalTraveler

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Thanks @bluehende This is not the exact chart I was referring to but this tells the story I was trying to convey, + may be more up-to-date with Delta.

It seems to come down to which poison you want the pick:

The one which has a high probability of killing or disabling you now (stop Covid with the vaccine)
or
the one which has a chance of killing you later - (but unknown - little found to date.) (vaccine side effects).

(The blue pill or the red pill...hmmm)
 
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DannyTS

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Not exactly what you were asking for but the same data.



This is from a month ago long after the delta variant was dominant.

full article https://www.11alive.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/covid-vaccines-in-georgia-comparison-10-best-and-worst-states/85-717c5d23-3c21-49ad-a276-8aed59a09a6c

Here's what we found:

10 worst states

The 10 worst states, which includes Georgia, are dealing with more than 14,000 people hospitalized and 254 deaths. An average of 38% of those living there are fully vaccinated.

10 best states

In the 10 best states, only 1,400 people are in the hospital and 32 deaths. Around 62% of that population is vaccinated.

Both groups have about the same number people, which means COVID patients in states with low vaccination rates have 10-times higher hospitalization rates and are 7 times more likely to die.

Why don't we wait 5-6 weeks to see if this holds? See the reasoning in one of my posts above.
 

DannyTS

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Dr. Scott Gottlieb: "U.S. won't get vaccine adoption above 90% even with Biden vaccine mandate"
"This Delta wave played out in the South by in large and it is going to play out now in the North"

 

Superchief

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I find it disappointing that the CDC appears to be ignoring the science that those who had Covid have immunity at least equal to vaccinated people. It is unfair to treat people with acquired immunity the same as those who have no protection. Perhaps the mandate would have better credibility if people with acquired immunity were excluded.
 

geekette

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I find it disappointing that the CDC appears to be ignoring the science that those who had Covid have immunity at least equal to vaccinated people. It is unfair to treat people with acquired immunity the same as those who have no protection. Perhaps the mandate would have better credibility if people with acquired immunity were excluded.
I think the problem with this approach is the waning immunity, else there wouldn't be two-timers (nor booster shots). As the virus mutates, I'm not sure an infection in March 2020 is going to protect one from latest strains.

I think if you are under mandate and don't want the jab, you could present antibody tests vs negative cv19 tests. This could be effective in lobbying HR.
 

Superchief

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I think the problem with this approach is the waning immunity, else there wouldn't be two-timers (nor booster shots). As the virus mutates, I'm not sure an infection in March 2020 is going to protect one from latest strains.

I think if you are under mandate and don't want the jab, you could present antibody tests vs negative cv19 tests. This could be effective in lobbying HR.
There is also waning immunity for the vaccines and extensive studies in other countries show the immunity from having Covid was stronger than with the Pfizer vaccine. The president never even acknowledged people who had Covid. He could have increased compliance by exempting them from the mandate. An antibody test could be an option, but it currently would not be allowed under the mandate. Some people ignore the fact that there are significant side effects for some people, and there are no longer term studies available due to the newness of the vaccines. The fact that Pfizer and other companies are protected from lawsuits related to the vaccine is also concerning.

One difference between this vaccine compared to polio and others that posters keep referring to is that this is more like a flu shot than a one time vaccine.
 

CalGalTraveler

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Here is a chart that is similar to the chart I was referring to earlier (however this is for California instead of the entire US.) Same story - the more vaccinated the lower the hospitalization rate.

My takeaway is that prior Covid immunity is a small population and thus does not move the needle (most likely), or that 2) prior Covid immunity is not 100% because it doesn't significantly affect the hospitalization rate as evidenced by the rate in lower vaxxed counties.

I live in the SF Bay Area and despite Delta, we are pretty much back to normal with theaters, gyms, restaurants, and events open. Still masking indoors but I find it a minor inconvenience at this point..

1631712680353.png
 
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DannyTS

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Questions about your graph.
1) What is the natural immunity in the areas on the graph? Were the ones closer to the bottom more affected by Covid in the past? How does the natural immunity contribute to the current number of cases?

2) There is a study that shows that 50% of the Covid hospitalizations are either asymptomatic or with very light symptoms and that there is no definition of a hospitalization from Covid (vs with Covid). Many people are not in the hospital for Covid. When those that are not vaxxed continue to be tested in larger numbers (travel, work etc) don't you think the numbers of the unvaxxed hospitalizations are artificially inflated? Regardless, when 50% are actually not covid hospitalization, don't you think graphs like that are meaningless especially since the virus can move to other areas?

3) there are many grey dots and very few purple dots on the graph. How were the purple dots chosen?
 

CalGalTraveler

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1) I haven't seen such figures but SF Bay Area Covid rates have always been relatively low because of mandates and shutdowns, so I would surmise that the prior Covid % rate is relatively low given the large population.

2) I am not sure of your point. If what I take from what you are saying is true, then the rate of Covid hospitalizations would be comparable in vaxxed and unvaxxed areas because one could surmise that people are hospitalized for non-covid comorbidities at the same rate. The more highly populated areas at the bottom would not have lower hospitalization - in fact I would expect more from co-morbidities because urban areas have been shown to have higher general health risks.

Perhaps unvaxxed are tested more but note that the upper left are smaller rural areas so they may not have the mandates for testing like urban workers in the lower right. In addition, this is a hospitalization rate so there must be more impact to one's health going on because they wouldn't admit them otherwise. More likely they would give them a monoclonal antibody and ask them to monitor at home.

3) Grey dots are other California counties like Tulare, Napa, Sonoma, San Mateo, Santa Clara Riverside...If they included them all it would crowd the chart.
 
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Superchief

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Does anybody wonder why the vaccines aren't advertised if they are so beneficial to everyone? It is probable because they would have to mention all of the potential side effects and would scare more people from getting it. I have seen very little published regarding side effects, but know several people who experienced significant problems when getting the vaccine. Perhaps if the government and main stream press were more transparent in presenting all information then fewer people would be getting information from 'fringe' social media sources. People should have the right to weight the risk and benefits of the vaccine to make their own decision because it could significantly impact their own health.

The vaccine made sense form me in my situation, but may not for others. I'm glad I got Moderna because I never trusted Pfizer after having worked in the pharmaceutical industry for several years.
 

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Does anybody wonder why the vaccines aren't advertised if they are so beneficial to everyone? It is probable because they would have to mention all of the potential side effects and would scare more people from getting it. I have seen very little published regarding side effects, but know several people who experienced significant problems when getting the vaccine. Perhaps if the government and main stream press were more transparent in presenting all information then fewer people would be getting information from 'fringe' social media sources. People should have the right to weight the risk and benefits of the vaccine to make their own decision because it could significantly impact their own health.

The vaccine made sense form me in my situation, but may not for others. I'm glad I got Moderna because I never trusted Pfizer after having worked in the pharmaceutical industry for several years.
Only FDA approved drugs can be publicly advertised. Pfizer only recently received FDA approval and the others are still under EUA. That’s why you don’t see any advertisements. The legal requirements for any substances under EUA are significant and therefore information is not widely available by design.


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Makes sense. Experimental then still except Pfizer.
 

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Here is a chart that is similar to the chart I was referring to earlier (however this is for California instead of the entire US.) Same story - the more vaccinated the lower the hospitalization rate.

My takeaway is that prior Covid immunity is a small population and thus does not move the needle (most likely), or that 2) prior Covid immunity is not 100% because it doesn't significantly affect the hospitalization rate as evidenced by the rate in lower vaxxed counties.

I live in the SF Bay Area and despite Delta, we are pretty much back to normal with theaters, gyms, restaurants, and events open. Still masking indoors but I find it a minor inconvenience at this point..

View attachment 40000
While I agree with your takeaways and interpretation, something doesn't look right with the data for San Diego County, where I live. The graph shows only about 48% of the population vaccinated, which I think is vastly untrue unless I'm misinterpreting the data point. According to the San Diego County COVID website, as of today almost 65% of the total population (and 77% of the eligible population) of the county have been fully vaccinated. I'm wondering if the NYT is underreporting Los Angeles County's as well.

 

CalGalTraveler

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While I agree with your takeaways and interpretation, something doesn't look right with the data for San Diego County, where I live. The graph shows only about 48% of the population vaccinated, which I think is vastly untrue unless I'm misinterpreting the data point. According to the San Diego County COVID website, as of today almost 65% of the total population (and 77% of the eligible population) of the county have been fully vaccinated. I'm wondering if the NYT is underreporting Los Angeles County's as well.

Not sure. I see the NYT as a reliable source. They indicated the data was as of Sept 13. Perhaps they pulled from a state database that hadn't been updated from the county yet? If your information is more accurate, then that would push those counties closer to the lower right line in the graph, which still supports the analysis i.e. higher vax, lower hospitalization rate.
 

PcflEZFlng

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If your information is more accurate, then that would push those counties closer to the lower right line in the graph, which still supports the analysis i.e. higher vax, lower hospitalization rate.
Absolutely, it would. And, based on what I've been observing here, much more accurate. That's why that data point seemed so odd when I saw it. I also normally view the NYT as credible, but 48% to 65% is just too far a leap to not question how/where they got their data. I'll go with SD County on this one.
 

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I don’t agree with the anti-vaxxers. I wish there’s a way for them to own their consequences, meaning if you choose to decline vaccination, you subsequently decline all insurance benefit or medical treatments due to Covid. There isn’t enough beds nor medical resources for people who choose their own demise. But hey, that your choice.
 

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1) I haven't seen such figures but SF Bay Area Covid rates have always been relatively low because of mandates and shutdowns, so I would surmise that the prior Covid % rate is relatively low given the large population.

2) I am not sure of your point. If what I take from what you are saying is true, then the rate of Covid hospitalizations would be comparable in vaxxed and unvaxxed areas because one could surmise that people are hospitalized for non-covid comorbidities at the same rate. The more highly populated areas at the bottom would not have lower hospitalization - in fact I would expect more from co-morbidities because urban areas have been shown to have higher general health risks.

Perhaps unvaxxed are tested more but note that the upper left are smaller rural areas so they may not have the mandates for testing like urban workers in the lower right. In addition, this is a hospitalization rate so there must be more impact to one's health going on because they wouldn't admit them otherwise. More likely they would give them a monoclonal antibody and ask them to monitor at home.

3) Grey dots are other California counties like Tulare, Napa, Sonoma, San Mateo, Santa Clara Riverside...If they included them all it would crowd the chart.
Studies show that 50% of the Covid hospital admissions are actually not for covid. Your assumption that this ratio is constant throughout a region has no basis, the study looked at a large number of hospitalizations but the admission process and reporting vary from place to place as we know from the media (passive reporting that relies on hospital administrators).

But it should be much easier, why guess? Just show me the current infections, hospitalizations and deaths for the four categories:

1) Previously infected and vaxxed
2) Previously infected and not vaxxed
3) Vaxxed but not previously infected
4) Unvaxxed and not previously infected.
 
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