- Mar 24, 2018
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The virus has a certain degree of unpredictability, judging the number of the infections at a single moment in time is a mistake imo. Think last year, there was always a place that was doing better or worse at any given time, not the same states all the time.BTW...I agree with your #1 that Delta has changed the game and the breakthrough % has increased. (I just gave you a hypothetical 10%)
Bottom line: There is overwhelming evidence that states that have lower vax rates have higher case rates per 100,000 with overwhelming hospitalizations of unvaxxed. (There was an excellent state comparison chart posted in this forum but I cannot find. Would love it if the person that posted it would repost here.)
To blame the vaxxed for rampant case rates is not supported by the data. If it were true, one would expect to see the states with the highest cases per 100,000 as the highest vaxxed states, and those hospitals in highly vaxxed states would be rationing care That is simply not the case. Therefore if vaxxed are spreading the virus in high vaxxed states, it is passing to people protected by the vaccine and thus the vaccine is doing its job by disabling the virus.
Besides if vaxxed were to blame for spreading the disease - what's the alternative? Shut everything down? That's not feasible.
Virologists say that the flu usually starts in the South and then it moves North. You would also expect that with Covid. When it is really hot in the South, people generally socialize more inside and that helps transmit the virus. Also the schools start at different dates, not only they can marginally increase the transmission but they also come with a huge number of tests that end up in the official numbers.
When we are talking about the immunity of a state, you also do not have to leave out the natural immunity. Some states (NJ, NY for example) did really poorly last year so a high percentage of the population was already immune. One can argue, the vaccination rate of a state, a city or a street is also a factor of how they were affected by the previous waves. The more cases around them in the past, the more people wanted to vaccinate. Would you expect more vaccines among farmers, who may have not had any covid, or among those who live in an apartment building in New York? As you can see, the overlap between vaccines and previous infections can be quite high and the vaccine may not necessarily play the out-sized role you may expect in the overall immunity of a community.
"Broadly speaking, earlier starts are more common in the South and Southwest: In a rough band of 13 states stretching from Arizona to Florida and up to South Carolina, 79% of the districts we examined will be back in school by the end of this week. Later starts are more common along the East Coast (from Maine to North Carolina), the upper Midwest (Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan) and the Northwest (Oregon and Washington)."
Depending on where in the U.S. you live, “back to school” means anytime from late July to after Labor Day
Earlier starts tend to be more common in the South and Southwest. Later starts are more common on the East Coast and in the upper Midwest and Northwest.