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Average SPG Amex Annual Spend

VacationForever

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$16000 spend would get $320 cashback to spend on the room. And that would earn you 960 StarPoints at checkout.

As you say that stay is a StarPoints wash.

Now the 32000 I dropped on on a Sat and Sun at Weston St John to extend that stay instead of $559 a night. That's sweet value.

It is 16000 points, not $...
 

DavidnRobin

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There you go - Because of your background, I think you have a far more analytical view of timesharing than most Tuggers, and that is why your approach is getting a lukewarm reception.

Don't take it personally - I think that most people view timesharing as more of an Art, than a Science, because personal preference plays a huge role in the perception of value.

This, and that most have us have had this journey already in one form or another - with variations on this theme. And, you are not the first to discuss these topics - many of us have 'advised' before. Sometimes successfully - sometimes not. Sometimes we learn something new, and sometimes come to new awareness on our journey.

I am in an analytical profession as well, but luckily (for me) mine combines science, math and art - and not just math. Making optimal decisions built upon imperfect information is inherently problematic and confounding - which I think matches the SP cost/value evaluation exercise quite well. As I often discuss with my pure math colleagues (Modeling&Simulation)... depending purely on the numbers (math) can be a mistake when presented with imperfect data.

so... as I believe time=money and that can be highly variable for individuals - estimation of cost-value for a 'Typical' individual can not only be futile, it can also be misleading.
In this case - it is sometimes best to take a consensus view based on knowledge, then learn-confirm. I would not buy SPs at 2.25 cents/SP - others would.

The best use of SP (from a $/SP) perspective is to use them outside the US (based on consensus and personal experience). Even these rates are high variable, but comparing them to the highest rate is the approach a SVO salesperson will always use to sell a VOI, and that is the worst scenario for the customer for purposes of comparison.
 

SMHarman

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It is 16000 points, not $...
Unless you are spending on Starwood hotels or MF, earning on the card is 1:1.
So to get 16,000 points you spent $16,000.
If at Starwood it may be the 5 points per $ but in general it's one.

If instead you had spent that $16k on a cashback card at 2% average cashback. More on gas. Less on groceries etc then you would have received a $320 cashback check.
 

tante

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There you go - Because of your background, I think you have a far more analytical view of timesharing than most Tuggers, and that is why your approach is getting a lukewarm reception.

Don't take it personally - I think that most people view timesharing as more of an Art, than a Science, because personal preference plays a huge role in the perception of value.

I could not agree more. I don't necessarily want to go to the places with the highest redemption because that is when it is often most crowded. I am okay considering points a discount on a room or flight and would rather just spend them than save them.
 
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I could not agree more. I don't necessarily want to go to the places with the highest redemption because that is when it is often most crowded. I am okay considering points a discount on a room or flight and would rather just spend them than save them.

Totally agree. Hence for Cat 4 or above.

Even then, I try not to stay in Cat 4s, mainly Cat 5 and above, if it is an SPG hotel. (Unless it is for work, then Four Points are generally OK).

So even if the SPG nightly rate is 3000 points at say $150
Would rather stay at the 16000 points at say $400

Even though the math would say stay at the "cheaper" hotel...
That is where the value judgment takes place.

But in both instances, the COST of the Starpoints is still the same.
 
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This, and that most have us have had this journey already in one form or another - with variations on this theme. And, you are not the first to discuss these topics - many of us have 'advised' before. Sometimes successfully - sometimes not. Sometimes we learn something new, and sometimes come to new awareness on our journey.

I am in an analytical profession as well, but luckily (for me) mine combines science, math and art - and not just math. Making optimal decisions built upon imperfect information is inherently problematic and confounding - which I think matches the SP cost/value evaluation exercise quite well. As I often discuss with my pure math colleagues (Modeling&Simulation)... depending purely on the numbers (math) can be a mistake when presented with imperfect data.

so... as I believe time=money and that can be highly variable for individuals - estimation of cost-value for a 'Typical' individual can not only be futile, it can also be misleading.
In this case - it is sometimes best to take a consensus view based on knowledge, then learn-confirm. I would not buy SPs at 2.25 cents/SP - others would.

The best use of SP (from a $/SP) perspective is to use them outside the US (based on consensus and personal experience). Even these rates are high variable, but comparing them to the highest rate is the approach a SVO salesperson will always use to sell a VOI, and that is the worst scenario for the customer for purposes of comparison.

Therefore, if the topic keeps coming up, especially for newer guys like myself, then I think it would be good to have a sticky somewhere so that we can all refer to that master document, if "most everyone" agrees on the methodology.

Again, for COST, not VALUE.
 

SMHarman

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Totally agree. Hence for Cat 4 or above.

Even then, I try not to stay in Cat 4s, mainly Cat 5 and above, if it is an SPG hotel. (Unless it is for work, then Four Points are generally OK).

So even if the SPG nightly rate is 3000 points at say $150
Would rather stay at the 16000 points at say $400

Even though the math would say stay at the "cheaper" hotel...
That is where the value judgment takes place.

But in both instances, the COST of the Starpoints is still the same.
Nope. Not here. I am using 3000 points to stay at the Providence airport Sheraton on they way to the cape. Cheaper than cash.

I pretty much use the math here and if cash is cheaper spend it and earn points or if points are cheaper use them.

I'm weighing up buying 6000 points for this weekend to do a cash and points stay that will be cheaper than cash or points!
 

Jason245

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Therefore, if the topic keeps coming up, especially for newer guys like myself, then I think it would be good to have a sticky somewhere so that we can all refer to that master document, if "most everyone" agrees on the methodology.

Again, for COST, not VALUE.

Cost can be viewed in two ways:

Way number 1: Opportunity cost - in this case it is easy to calculate. SPG card = 1 point per dollar spend, vs a 2 Percent Cash back card means that each point is costing you a minimum of 2 percent cash back.

Way number 2: Minimum Cash flow cost. There are a number of opportunities out there to "manufacture" spend on a credit card which artificially generates points at no cost or very little cost. One example of this was the US circulating $1 Coin program where some people orderd hundreds of thousands or more in one dollar coins (shipped to them for free) (http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB126014168569179245).

I know of many people who have used way number 2 to earn millions of points spread over many programs and thousands of dollars in cash back over the years. (look at threads in flyertalk and fatwallet).

I would also like to point out (as a general rule) It is not ideal to ever convert your TS into Hotel points with any of the programs that allow this. My understanding is that the value received compared to MF cost is way out of wack.
 
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Ken555

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Therefore, if the topic keeps coming up, especially for newer guys like myself, then I think it would be good to have a sticky somewhere so that we can all refer to that master document, if "most everyone" agrees on the methodology.



Again, for COST, not VALUE.


I would suspect the reason a sticky on this topic is unnecessary is due to the obviousness of the issue at hand. Of course points cost money, in some form or another. This is obvious.


Sent from my iPad
 
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I would suspect the reason a sticky on this topic is unnecessary is due to the obviousness of the issue at hand. Of course points cost money, in some form or another. This is obvious.


Sent from my iPad

Obvious = Points cost money. YES

How much actual money = Not so obvious.

Which is why, we all can't even agree on how to calculate the cost of the SPG Points.
 
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Cost can be viewed in two ways:

Way number 2: Minimum Cash flow cost. There are a number of opportunities out there to "manufacture" spend on a credit card which artificially generates points at no cost or very little cost. One example of this was the US circulating $1 Coin program where some people orderd hundreds of thousands or more in one dollar coins (shipped to them for free) (http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB126014168569179245).

Way number 2 seems like an extreme way to do things.
 

DeniseM

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Way number 2 seems like an extreme way to do things.

If you visit the credit card user websites, the creative and crazy ways to earn points is a major topic. Not my cup of tea, but I do like to earn bonus points by churning credit cards a bit.

Since the AMEX credit card and SPG points are really hotel products, and not timeshare products, the points topic isn't as big here.

Also - many Tugger bought resale, so their timeshares don't have Starpoints, and many/most don't have AMEX cards, so probably only a small percentage of Starwood owners are interested in the points.
 

Jason245

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Way number 2 seems like an extreme way to do things.

Way number 2 gave me:

2 business class tickets to Paris
2 nights in the Waldorf Astoria Versailles
1 night in the Hilton by CDG
4 Nights in the Paris Etoil SPG property

Total cost of a 1 week trip to paris like a high roller - ~$300 in flight taxes, ~$500 in food and ~20 hours of "extreme" work, ~$150 transportation and sightseeing and a priceless memory.

I will let you figure out the value of what was received.
 

DeniseM

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Way number 2 gave me:

2 business class tickets to Paris
2 nights in the Waldorf Astoria Versailles
1 night in the Hilton by CDG
4 Nights in the Paris Etoil SPG property

Slumming, huh? :D
 
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I'm lazy, so those costs are extreme. Haha.

Just normal spend Amex, maybe purchase SPG.

However, I don't remember who, but someone says they do the MF/Option/Points way.

Marginal Cost Way: MF / Convert to Points = LESS THAN BUYING FROM SPG
vs.
Total Allocated Cost : (MF + S/L Dep'n 10 or 20 or 30 years) / Points = MORE THAN BUYING FROM SPG

So depending on how you cost it, it will affect on how you would ACQUIRE points, should you need it (or the hierarchy on how you acquire the points).
 

Ken555

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Obvious = Points cost money. YES



How much actual money = Not so obvious.



Which is why, we all can't even agree on how to calculate the cost of the SPG Points.


Of course it's obvious. The issue you're facing is that not everyone wants to even consider that their vanity credit cards have a direct cost to them for the "free" points. Each of us tends to value them differently, and I highly doubt you will ever reach a consensus on this issue. Personally, as I believe I posted earlier, I value them at 2% since I consider a cash back credit card to be the true comparison (of course that's not even exactly accurate, since I believe I might have to declare that money taxable income, but whatever...).

Ultimately, there isn't one size that fits all with this issue. Sooner or later you'll realize that, and then start to focus only on your own travel plans...in which we can certainly help you maximize your points! :)


Sent from my iPad
 

SMHarman

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Way number 2 seems like an extreme way to do things.
Really. For the longest time the United Beneficial card in the UK gave miles on balance transfers and no charge for those transfers.

I bounced money between that card and two others. I could roll 25k every two weeks. Was awesome until beneficial moved to a new credit card platform and the party was over.
 

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OK, then. Cost of points depends on method of accumulation.

  • SPG credit card costs > $0.02/SP because plenty of other cards will pay you 2% straight cash.
  • Direct purchase costs $0.027-$0.035/SP depending on the promotion.
  • Conversion of SVO units costs a minimum of $0.014/SP but much more for most ownerships.
  • Starpoints certificates cost $0.019/SP.
  • Staying at hotels has various costs/SP.
Not sure how much more analysis one can do to determine the costs of obtaining Starpoints.


Whether or not to exercise a given option depends on (1) how many Starpoints you have available; (2) how many Starpoints you anticipate using within a given time period; and (3) the redemption value of the Starpoints you anticipate using.


Personally, I never redeem Starpoints at a value of under $0.02, because I am paying for new ones at that price every time I make an SPG AMEX purchase. However, whether or not I choose to exercise an option to purchase Starpoints at a higher price depends on how many I have and how many I need. I'll purchase Starpoints at $0.03 if I'm in short supply and want to redeem them at a value of > $0.03. But if I have hundreds of thousands of them, I won't pay that price.


How much more analysis is useful to do? :wall:
 

DavidnRobin

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What do u value spg gold status?

I would put SPG Gold value at $30-40/year - for me. This is what I would pay for the amount of usage I get from it.
zero for SVN 3* as I get no use from it - yet (that I am aware of).
YMMV (and likely does)

make sure to consider the TUG membership cost ($15) in the calculations - since much more than $15 worth of info is spewed daily
 
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okwiater

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@okwaiter

What do u value spg gold status?

Not much, maybe $50 per year. I am 5* PFL now though, that's probably worth $3-400 per year with my usage.
 
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