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Average SPG Amex Annual Spend

traveldaddy

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TUG Community - does anybody see anything wrong with the logic and methodology of this?

I guess I am a little confused. I am not sure what it is you are trying to achieve.

I do not see anything wrong with the methodology - in fact it is quite obvious. If you can only spend $50K/yr on your SPG AMEX, you will only collect on that amount. You could buy more or convert staroptions (if you have that capability), but neither of these typically make sense in that the cost is higher than what you receive (but there may be special/unique and rare situations where this is not true).

If you have business/work related spend, you can also get more SPG points through stays/spend within the hotel group.

If you think you can collect enough SPG points for a week or two of vacation for a family, with or without airfare - well, the math says, no, you probably can't. But to your own comparison of 2% cash back on $50K spend, well, you probably can't do the same for the $1K cash back either (in this example).

From a fellow Canuck, I get that you can't put everything on SPG amex - it is my go-to card and I fall close to the example above. I just got the Mariott Visa, as it does not have a foreign transaction fee - so I can pay my TS MF and other incidentals with the Visa, and the savings on FX pays for the annual fee. Between the two cards, I will be able to get some decent "free" nights and/or transfer to airline awards to try to get "free" flights. I have never considered trying to get a full week vacay from either - the best "value" is actually adding on a day or two at the beginning/end of a week TS stay to minimize the cost of airfare. Since I typically have to lock down the week prior to booking airfare (need to book TS 10-13 months in advance to get the best places/units), having that flexibility can save $80-100 per person (times 4-5 people), without putting me out of pocket for anything, and I can still get a decent place.

Not sure how to do the fuzzy math on that though......

If you clarify a bit on your end goal we might be able to help more, but if it is only to decide how to accumulate points, as others have stated, I would not wait for several years to accumulate # of SPG points needed to have a big vacay - they could devalue on you while you accumulate.

I hope this helpful btw. I am trying to be.

Craig
 

Ken555

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The flaw is that you can only convert from Staroptions to Starpoints if you pay big $ to buy timeshare from developer.


Thank you! I was waiting for someone to point out the elephant in the room.

I just don't get this thread. What is its real purpose? The OP hasn't shared his goals other than in a roundabout manner. We're a fairly helpful group, but without learning more I doubt we can provide additional insight into his particular situation...other than...

MORE POINTS = GOOD ;)


Sent from my iPad
 
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To the last few replies:

Right now, the goal is to have a framework of analysis that is NOT SUBJECTIVE.

I was looking for the input and wisdom of the community to see if the analysis is flawed or if I have missed something.

If not, then can we agree(?) that the methodology is correct?
If it is, then this can provide a framework for a veteran TUGger, or a Newbie, looking to do their own analysis.

In this case, the analysis is the calculation of the COST of SPG Points.
With this calculation, you would have the basis and framework to calculate the ACTUAL COST of SPG Points.

The way you would VALUE the points is highly subjective. But if we can all agree that the COST is correctly calculated - then discussions about the cost can be "a bit" standardized.

Note: I do just want to have a few points/calculations to possibly show.

However, I would first like to see if the methodology is correct.
 
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As a resource for TS vacationers, I would like to have this site to also have accurate "math", and "methodology", so that other people can do their own analysis using these methods.

But maybe that is just me?
 
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Sample Questions, Calculations and Problems, using this methodology:

1. What is the cost for a Studio for New Years Week cost for a Westin Whistler (or any other Westin Resort with Rooms/Villas), using a combination of SPG Points and Star Options? (So that it is almost an apple to apple comparison)

2. What is the real/marginal cost of getting more SPG Points using StarOptions, for my own personal situation?

3. How much is this HOTEL (especially if booking LARGE PARTIES or multiple rooms) booking going to cost me, if I use SPG Points?

If you can calculate the cost, then you can infer the VALUE of the SPG Points, and thus calculate whether it is a worthwhile endeavor, financially speaking.
 

MichaelColey

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We use our Starwood AmEx for the vast majority of our personal spending and the spending for our two businesses, so we end up racking up way more Starpoints than most people are able to. 200-400k per year, easily. And that's with many categories of spending being siphoned off to other cards that earn high rewards for specific categories.

We use most of our Starpoints for airline miles, but sometimes get a nice hotel when it's a good redemption value.
 

DavidnRobin

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Thank you! I was waiting for someone to point out the elephant in the room.

I just don't get this thread. What is its real purpose? The OP hasn't shared his goals other than in a roundabout manner. We're a fairly helpful group, but without learning more I doubt we can provide additional insight into his particular situation...other than...

MORE POINTS = GOOD ;)


Sent from my iPad

I agree - based on a compilation of posts and responses - it seems shadowy.

Not even a non-linear regression model could figure this out - no way to converge on error=zero as the covariates have too many confounding variables that are both dependent and independent of each other. Resulting in 90% Prediction Intervals that are too wide for a reasonable probability of attaining a reliable estimate for $/SP as an aysmptotic approach to GOOD >> SP value.

but have at it...
-if-
More Points = Good
-and-
Few Points = Bad
-then at-
Good=Bad
Point Value = Infinity
-result-
Life is Good

SP~2.25 cents plus/minus in my world - YMMV
(sorry - can't blame me - watching live Phish stream from Bend OR)
 
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DeniseM

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Not even a non-linear regression model could figure this out - no way to converge on error=zero as the covariates have too many confounding variables that are both dependent and independent of each other. Resulting in 90% Prediction Intervals that are too wide for a reasonable probability of attaining a reliable estimate for $/SP as an aysmptotic approach to GOOD >> SP value.

Exactly what I was just thinking… :hysterical:

Dave - you speak math goodly! ;)
 
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I agree - based on a compilation of posts and responses - it seems shadowy.

SP~2.25 cents plus/minus in my world - YMMV
(sorry - can't blame me - watching live Phish stream from Bend OR)

I'm not sure what you mean by shadowy? Are you saying any thread that doesn't seem to match what you think is shadowy?

Does a post have to have an ultimate purpose, or is it not for discussion?

What does YMMV mean?
 
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I guess I am a little confused. I am not sure what it is you are trying to achieve.

If you clarify a bit on your end goal we might be able to help more, but if it is only to decide how to accumulate points, as others have stated, I would not wait for several years to accumulate # of SPG points needed to have a big vacay - they could devalue on you while you accumulate.

I hope this helpful btw. I am trying to be.

Craig

I suppose the goal, is that, since this is a TS website, and we are in the Starwood forum - the discussion is between Starwood hotel stays vs Starwood TS stays.

Let us keep the conversation much simpler and compare Starwood hotel stays vs Starwood TS stays.

Maybe that would make it more clear.

Since Starwood TS stays and Starwood Hotel Stays have a possible overlap in the "currency" you can use to book them (SPG Points).
 

Pedro

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I agree - based on a compilation of posts and responses - it seems shadowy.

Not even a non-linear regression model could figure this out - no way to converge on error=zero as the covariates have too many confounding variables that are both dependent and independent of each other. Resulting in 90% Prediction Intervals that are too wide for a reasonable probability of attaining a reliable estimate for $/SP as an aysmptotic approach to GOOD >> SP value.
I really like your math/statistics explanation!:clap:

I think it can get even more complicated than that as the real value of the SPs is a function of how they are earned and how they are spent.

I'm in the bay area for 3 nights this week @ $200/night and the stay will result in:
Platinum amenity: 500 SP
Green choice: 500 x 2 nights = 1000 SP
Starpoints for stay: 600 x 4 = 2400
SPs for using the SPG Amex = 1200

Total starpoints = 5,100

This morning I made a reservation for the 4 Points in Barcelona at a total cost of 11,000 SPs for 3 nights. The cost would have been about 170 euros/night (~$185/night) for a total of $555. The SPs I'm earning this week on my stay at the bay area pretty much cover half of the reservation in Barcelona, or about $250 in savings.

So, to continue with the fuzzy math, $600 spent -> 5,100 points -> $250 in savings or $0.05/SP.
 

VacationForever

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I really like your math/statistics explanation!:clap:

I think it can get even more complicated than that as the real value of the SPs is a function of how they are earned and how they are spent.

I'm in the bay area for 3 nights this week @ $200/night and the stay will result in:
Platinum amenity: 500 SP
Green choice: 500 x 2 nights = 1000 SP
Starpoints for stay: 600 x 4 = 2400
SPs for using the SPG Amex = 1200

Total starpoints = 5,100

This morning I made a reservation for the 4 Points in Barcelona at a total cost of 11,000 SPs for 3 nights. The cost would have been about 170 euros/night (~$185/night) for a total of $555. The SPs I'm earning this week on my stay at the bay area pretty much cover half of the reservation in Barcelona, or about $250 in savings.

So, to continue with the fuzzy math, $600 spent -> 5,100 points -> $250 in savings or $0.05/SP.

:D on the other hand, a quick check showed that at Westin St Francis in San Francisco costs around $400 per night or $16K points per night, which comes up to about $0.025/SP. So to get better value out of SPs, we should only travel to Europe and stay in multiple of 5 nights (4 nights, 1 night free).
 

Jason245

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:D on the other hand, a quick check showed that at Westin St Francis in San Francisco costs around $400 per night or $16K points per night, which comes up to about $0.025/SP. So to get better value out of SPs, we should only travel to Europe and stay in multiple of 5 nights (4 nights, 1 night free).
I have gotten 4 to 6 cents a point in value staying at westin and other high up spg hotel peoperties.. if you ever have a chance..the one in paris is GREAT..

Tip:use cash and points and sometimes you can get even more bang for the points.


Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk
 

traveldaddy

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:D on the other hand, a quick check showed that at Westin St Francis in San Francisco costs around $400 per night or $16K points per night, which comes up to about $0.025/SP. So to get better value out of SPs, we should only travel to Europe and stay in multiple of 5 nights (4 nights, 1 night free).

Which demonstrates the fallacy of trying to pin down a cost in this fashion perfectly.

I can "save" more or get more "value" by doing something I wasn't planning on doing anyway. If you "save" 60% off something you don't need, you just wasted the 40% you paid for......

My belief is that it is up to each individual to look at their specific circumstances and try to optimize around what they want to do.......the value in these types of threads is to get ideas from others in their approaches to see what you might be able to apply to make your own specific circumsatnces better. I don't see how you can make a formula for one size fits all...and if you did, the factors would change in short order (devaluation, relative prices, etc.). I am probably preachng to the choir though.
 

SMHarman

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:D on the other hand, a quick check showed that at Westin St Francis in San Francisco costs around $400 per night or $16K points per night, which comes up to about $0.025/SP. So to get better value out of SPs, we should only travel to Europe and stay in multiple of 5 nights (4 nights, 1 night free).
$16000 spend would get $320 cashback to spend on the room. And that would earn you 960 StarPoints at checkout.

As you say that stay is a StarPoints wash.

Now the 32000 I dropped on on a Sat and Sun at Weston St John to extend that stay instead of $559 a night. That's sweet value.
 
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okwiater

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My guess is very few people actually "save" money using StarPoints. Vacation budgets are relatively fixed. Instead, the value you get from StarPoints is that they sometimes make an option available that you would not otherwise have considered.

Case in point: on an upcoming trip to Mexico, I had budgeted $700/ea for round trip flights, enough for economy class. We never pay extra for First/Business. However, I was able to get a first-class outbound ticket for 30,000 Delta miles, and an economy return for $150. For the 2 of us, that's a total of 48,000 Starpoints + $300. In other words, I'm still spending about $1,400, but I'm improving the options that are available to me for that money.
 

YYJMSP

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Sample Questions, Calculations and Problems, using this methodology:

1. What is the cost for a Studio for New Years Week cost for a Westin Whistler (or any other Westin Resort with Rooms/Villas), using a combination of SPG Points and Star Options? (So that it is almost an apple to apple comparison)

2. What is the real/marginal cost of getting more SPG Points using StarOptions, for my own personal situation?

3. How much is this HOTEL (especially if booking LARGE PARTIES or multiple rooms) booking going to cost me, if I use SPG Points?

If you can calculate the cost, then you can infer the VALUE of the SPG Points, and thus calculate whether it is a worthwhile endeavor, financially speaking.

We can probably answer #1, based on what a SO costs if you tell us what you own. If you don't own anything, there are multiple theoretical and real answers to this question... there is no general answer...

We don't know the details of your personal situation so how can we help answer #2 without specific information?

#3 is a fixed amount you can calculate off the SPG site deepening in what day you arrive, how long you're staying, and how many rooms. I don't think you need our help with this one...
 

DavidnRobin

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^^^^ these above posts are a great examples of why an exercise that generalizes SP value can be futile ^^^^

Always maximize SP accumulation and usage, but don't go into unnecessary debt doing so.
SP value for one is not necessarily the value for others.
Vacationing costs money and time.

Defn: Shadowy - of uncertain identity or nature.
 
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canesfan

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What does YMMV mean?

Your Miles May Vary

And that has been the whole discussion about this round about and fuzzy math. What works for one person may not work for you.

I just got back for an Europe trip. Originally I was going to buy my ticket with AA ff miles. As it turned out the taxes on the FF miles were so high, we decided to wait on use those miles for our upcoming Hawaii trip. I ended up earning more miles on this Europe flight, so that was added bonus for us.

For the Italy portion of our trip, we used SPG points for Florence and SPG cash & points for Venice. For 15,000 pts & $305 USD I was able to stay at the Gritti Palace which at the time the standard room price was over $1000/night. If I'd paid all SPG points, it would have been 30,000/night. In Florence, I wasn't able to do cash & points and I paid 25,000 for the Westin Excelsior. For me, the value was more in the Gritti Palace. For others maybe it would've been the Excelsior.
 
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Hi All,
The last few posts were based on the VALUE of the SPG Points, which I agree can be done with fuzzy math.

The costs of the points, is not a fuzzy math calculation.

"You" either would have earned it via SPG Amex (about 2 cents), or purchased it (about 2.625 to 3.5 cents, or 1.9 cents, if you purchased it through a promo via TS purchase).
Or you would you have earned it via stays or bonus points (in which case, you cost could be lower).

Sorry to be so anal about it. Again, just trying to point out that the cost is not the same as the value.
 
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We don't know the details of your personal situation so how can we help answer #2 without specific information?

Sorry. "My situation" means a person's situation, not actually mine.

So newcomers can have a framework for doing their calculation.

As veteran TUGgers, this may all seem obvious. But for a newbie, they do need the help (I think).
 

DeniseM

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Wanttobe5StarElite - you are clearly a very analytical person. Do you have a math or engineering background?
 

DeniseM

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Nope. Finance.

There you go - Because of your background, I think you have a far more analytical view of timesharing than most Tuggers, and that is why your approach is getting a lukewarm reception.

Don't take it personally - I think that most people view timesharing as more of an Art, than a Science, because personal preference plays a huge role in the perception of value.
 
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