Asking the Taboo Question: Is America Overreacting to Coronavirus?

[bogey21]

Yes. It is over hyped and sensationalized by the media. But what is being done is necessary in many places. We don't need multiple NYC situations...

Note that I live in a CCRC populated with about 450 Seniors with an average age of about 85. Many have health issues. So far, so good as we are on almost total lock down. No visitors unless imminent death situation; employees checked daily by medical professionals every day before they are allowed in; meals delivered to our apartments; no group activities, etc. What they are doing is overkill but IMO necessary. An infection in here could spread like wildfire...

George

 

[x3 skier]

As has been reported widely, those most at risk are those pre existing conditions and a large percentage of those who have died were such people. My wife who died some 6 years ago from COPD and other problems would have certainly been an identified victim of COVID-19 if she had still been alive and had been infected. OTHO, she may have passed the next day and never experienced COVID-19. Does this mean COVID-19 killed her or was it just something else that just existed at the time of death?

When death rates are published, how do they establish that COVID-19 was THE cause and not something that merely was present at the time of death? For example, five elderly people in a nursing home near me died after they tested positive for COVID-19. They also were reported to have underlying health issues. So did they die of the virus or did they die with the virus or did they die sooner because they had the virus?

This has some real affect on the actual death rate and I hope those charged with providing advice on future courses of actions like Drs. Brix and Fauci are attempting to understand. There’s a difference between a projection of 240000 deaths and 50000 deaths (which is in the range of annual flu deaths in the USA).

Cheers

 

["Roger"]

A follow up to Heathpack's first paragraph, see the quoted passage from the Washington Post below.

Two notes: I would not normally post an extended quote from a newspaper on TUG, but in this case the Washington Post is allowing free access to their articles on coronavirus. I would have provided a link, but the passage comes from a long series of updates and cannot be isolated.

When Heathpack says that South Korea has been doing massive testing, the last comparison I saw was, adjusted for per capita, for every person tested in the United States, South Korea has tested 139 of its citizens. They have gone from one of the early hotbeds to perhaps the most hopeful. If only we had followed a similar path.

South Korea records more coronavirus recoveries than patients currently in treatment
South Korea marked a new milestone on Saturday, as more coronavirus patients, 4,811 total, have been discharged than those currently undergoing treatment, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
About 4,500 people still remain in isolation and are undergoing treatment.
Cases were first confirmed in South Korea on Jan. 20, and spiked dramatically in the following months. A huge cluster was linked to a religious sect in Daegu, who got sick in February. But public health experts there say that the country has now managed to slow the tide, and achieve a 50 percent recovery rate — a significant achievement.
South Korea has been routinely held up as one of the model countries for responding to the coronavirus outbreak, and has been praised for very aggressively testing suspected patients at one of the highest rates in the world. Officials in Seoul are now preparing new guidelines to ease the megacity back into normalcy, a process that will be closely watched.

 

[DannyTS]

Danny, South Korea has contained this disease with widespread testing and contact tracing, with quarantine of infected individuals and their contacts. They did not have to lock their society down and business has continued throughout.

We have not done any of that (or at least only a tiny sliver of a percent of what it would take to be effective) so we are in a mess. The new case rate we are seeing in the US is the result of managing it badly from a public health perspective, but it does not need to (and I would argue from an economic perspective cannot) continue to unfold in the manner in which it is. That is the whole point of the stringent lockdown now- to buy us time to get the appropriate response in place. Sadly you are not hearing this discussed in the public sphere, because I think that would indeed help the general population understand what is happening now and to buy into it a little better. And yes, it worries me too that I don't hear this message coming from the federal government. BUT if smart people are kept on the job, this is what the epidemiologists and public health experts will do even if that is not the message that we're hearing.

The only way out of this is by being smart and looking at the science. The science really does need to be evaluated by the people with the expertise to understand it (ie public health professionals, epidemiologists and so on) and the rest of us have to listen and comply. There is a way out of this for sure, but people have to give it a minute.

BTW, what are my qualifications for discussing this? I'm not a public health official or an epidemiologist. I'm a veterinarian. We spend a boatload of time on epidemiology, population medicine, infectious diseases, and public health- perhaps 15-20% of a 4 year curriculum. I spend two months in my clinical year just learning about "herd and flock" medicine. Then I went on after vet school and pursued residency training in neurology and neurosurgery, which in vet med is a subspecialty of internal medicine. So on a post-graduate level, I had to pass very challenging advance internal medicine tests before I could even try to pass my neurology and neurosurgery test. I've participated for 25 years now in a regular intellectual exercise called 'journal club," in which a group gets together to critique the validity of the conclusions drawn in peer-reviewed publications- is the article has already been vetted by smart people but we still sit down to discuss what the data 'really' supports. At work, 75% of what I do is urgent and emergency things. In short, I have extensive education in population medicine (more than an MD would get) and individual medicine, plus lots of experience in reading medical information and understanding it/critiquing it.

So I'm confident when I state this is not hype, its not overblown and there is an exit strategy if we don't let politics get in the way.

I actually agree with everything you wrote.

I just hope that when all the ventilators, PPE, the temporary care units and the test kits will be in place, we will go back to a relatively normal life while still taking precautions.

 

[VacationForever]

It keeps getting reported high death rates in those with pre-existing health conditions. One third of US population has high blood pressure, which is one of the high risk pre-existing conditions. That is alot of people with one of the pre-existing conditions. For those who think COVID-19 is overhyped, you are burying your heads in the sand.

When we discussed with our PCP on Telehealth yesterday. He said forget about media reports of pre-existing conditions. The seriousness of COVID-19 infection is age-based. If you are old and you get it, you are toast and pray hard.

 

[Maverick1963]

I live in Japan and work in Tokyo. In Japan, it was possible to identify infection routes regarding the earlier cases. The newly reported cases on March 28 was about 200 against 126 mil population nationwide. We are seeing more of cases whose infection routes cannot be found. In Tokyo with 11 mil population, the new cases were like 40, 40, 60 for the past three day. We are facing the phase where we may or may not see overshoot of infections.

Maybe you know all of the following ...

In US, my understanding is that infection routes were not identified from the beginning. Infections occurred and spread nationally while the big cities in New York and California are suffering more right now. This infection pattern should be considered to be very serious and dangerous, just because it indicates the virus is traveling freely within US.

The danger of COVID19 lies in the fact that there is no medicine and no vaccine. It take 18 months to develop vaccine. COVID19 can spread very quickly and puts older people and those with chronic illness at a greater risk. Also young people may not show symptoms even after they are infected with COVID19. That means those young people spread the virus unwittingly.

These facts and nature of COVID19 are very ominous because overshoot or sudden huge surge of infections is really possible. Hospitals can cure patients if it is only a dozen of infected cases in a serious conditions. But if it is 100, 200 or 1,000 infections on a given day, the spread will not stop. COVID19 can completely break the healthcare system. I saw a New York Times video posted by an ER doctor in New York. There are 200 ER patients on a normal day. It's 400 now. Ventilators will not be available until death makes vacancy.

Because there is no medicine for COVID19, the only preventive action is stop physical infections among people. This hurts economy very much. Small businesses will face live or die situation. But if we just let infections happen, there will be more casualties and we do not know how many lives will be lost. While the state of Hawaii still has a small number of infections, Governor has called for closure of business and suspension of visitors. Hawaii depends upon tourism and visitors from around the world. I believe the state government put the priority on stopping spread as early as possible. Hawaii may not be able to survive if they just see spread happening.

I understand people have different feelings, depending upon where they live. However, the preventive actions should not be considered to be over-reacting even if they are extreme and harsh. Likewise monetary support from the government is essential to prevent spread and economic crisis at the same time. Understanding such salvation is very risky and and may distort economy further after long money easing (QE), I hope government (not only US but also Japan) will distribute the support to those who really need it.

What we can do to stop spread is --- Minimize time to go out and to meet people. Not to go to places where people gather (churches, restaurants, bars, etc.). Wash hands. No shake hands, no hugs, no kisses. Rinse your mouth first and gargle. Not to to touch your face when outside.

 

[bluehende]

The mortality rate in Britain is 0.5% and it is probably grossly overstated because those with mild symptoms or with no symptoms do not get tested. That may put us well within the range of the normal influenza if not lower.

Let's ignore COVID19 completely for a second? If you were given a budget of 2 trillion dollars to save lives in the United States what would you do with the money to yield the highest number of saved lives?

Your premise seems to think there would be no impact to the economy if we let this virus just run it's course. The modeling would suggest under those circumstances the US would have 2.2 million deaths and 150 million sick. Do not think that the 80% that self resolve are not sick. Many are very sick. The cost would be astronomical in not only health care but interruption of 10's of millions off from work for weeks. It is a very false notion that we would be happily motoring along if we let it run it's course. Imagine the cost if the Hospitals were closed due to being completely overwhelmed and millions were dying. The overwhelming percentage of this money going to rescue the economy would have been needed regardless. The time for leveraging our dollars was before it hit us and there is enough blame for this to go around. I absolutely agree with you that 2 trillion dollars would be great and would save countless lives, however that choice was made long ago and is no longer available to us.

 

[Brett]

Sweden has a different approach to the coronavirus

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/...tion=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

"Sweden has drawn global attention with an unorthodox approach while its neighbors have imposed extensive restrictions.

Sweden has stayed open for business while other nations beyond Scandinavia have attacked the outbreak with various measures ambitious in scope and reach. Sweden’s approach has raised questions about whether it’s gambling with a disease.

Restaurants are open and people can be seen casually dining and enjoying cappuccinos. Playgrounds are full of running, screaming children. Restaurants, gyms, malls and ski slopes have thinned out but are still in use.

Sweden’s approach appeals to the public’s self-restraint and sense of responsibility, Mr. Tegnell said. “That’s the way we work in Sweden. Our whole system for communicable disease control is based on voluntary action. The immunization system is completely voluntary and there is 98 percent coverage,” he explained."

 

[DannyTS]

Sweden has a different approach to the coronavirus

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

"Sweden has drawn global attention with an unorthodox approach while its neighbors have imposed extensive restrictions.

Sweden has stayed open for business while other nations beyond Scandinavia have attacked the outbreak with various measures ambitious in scope and reach. Sweden’s approach has raised questions about whether it’s gambling with a disease.

Restaurants are open and people can be seen casually dining and enjoying cappuccinos. Playgrounds are full of running, screaming children. Restaurants, gyms, malls and ski slopes have thinned out but are still in use.

Sweden’s approach appeals to the public’s self-restraint and sense of responsibility, Mr. Tegnell said. “That’s the way we work in Sweden. Our whole system for communicable disease control is based on voluntary action. The immunization system is completely voluntary and there is 98 percent coverage,” he explained."

this is not under a paywall:

Sweden Plots Controversial Course As Life Goes On Largely Unchanged Amid Pandemic

Sweden has adopted a largely "business-as-usual" approach to the coronavirus pandemic.

www.rferl.org

 

[youppi]

Comparing Canada and USA, it seems worst in USA at this moment (data change all the time so the following data could be not accurate).
Per million of population, USA has tested 2 time less people, has 2 times more positive test and 3 times more death than Canada.

Source:

COVID-19: Current situation - Canada.ca

Information for Canadians on COVID-19 (coronavirus) including current cases, risk, monitoring, COVID-19 variants and how to get updates.

www.canada.ca

The Data

Our most up-to-date data on COVID-19 in the US.

covidtracking.com

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com

I didn't use this one https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

[davidvel]

It keeps getting reported high death rates in those with pre-existing health conditions. One third of US population has high blood pressure, which is one of the high risk pre-existing conditions. That is alot of people with one of the pre-existing conditions. For those who think COVID-19 is overhyped, you are burying your heads in the sand.

When we discussed with our PCP on Telehealth yesterday. He said forget about media reports of pre-existing conditions. The seriousness of COVID-19 infection is age-based. If you are old and you get it, you are toast and pray hard.

Not sure where your doctor is getting their (mis) information. Even for people in their 70s and 80s the death rate is under 10%, meaning over 90% of them will not die. And those #s are based on confirmed positive cases.

 

[TravelTime]

Not sure where your doctor is getting their (mis) information. Even for people in their 70s and 80s the death rate is under 10%, meaning over 90% of them will not die. And those #s are based on confirmed positive cases.

Sanjay Gupta on CNN said the death rate for the elderly is still low. Older people can and do recover.

 

[bluehende]

Not sure where your doctor is getting their (mis) information. Even for people in their 70s and 80s the death rate is under 10%, meaning over 90% of them will not die. And those #s are based on confirmed positive cases.

I would assume that the actual death rate per capita is below that even with no remediation, however we need to remember that there are 47 million people over the age of 70 in this country.

 

[pedro47]

Is the United States of America under or overreacting on the COVID-19???
We need to wait until the end of March 2020 and then we can compare our US data with the following countries China, Singapore, South Korea, Russia and Italy ?

Also, by the end of March 2020, we will have some good data from the following United States states New York, Connecticut, New Jersey, California, Washington, Florida, Illinois, Maryland, Virginia, and Louisiana. Hopefully, by the end of March, all US States and territories will have received some medical supplies and equipments from our federal government..

 

[x3 skier]

He said forget about media reports of pre-existing conditions. The seriousness of COVID-19 infection is age-based. If you are old and you get it, you are toast and pray hard.

This would seem to mean that just about everyone living in a retirement home where there is a COVID-19 infection “are toast”. No indication that this is anything like reality. I would ask the PCP for some facts or reports that back his assertion.

Cheers

 

[am1]

Not die yet. But being in the icu for 2 weeks has long term affects. Those are high death rates. The US has not handled it well and now not sure what steps can be taken to right the ship.

 

[Chrispee]

I can’t believe there are still people questioning if the USA is overreacting to the threat of Covid-19. Just look at an infection charts and consider the potential contributing factors and assess how US government and citizens are reacting in comparison to other countries that are further along the timeline:

• ability/willingness to do testing
• education level of the population as it correlates to being able to interpret statistics and make informed decisions
• willingness of individual citizens to make personal sacrifices for the greater good of society
• healthcare system flexible to open up beds and equipment for a large influx of patients

 

[VacationForever]

Not sure where your doctor is getting their (mis) information. Even for people in their 70s and 80s the death rate is under 10%, meaning over 90% of them will not die. And those #s are based on confirmed positive cases.

Even with 10% chance you are talking about 1 in 10 will die, and some of the other 9 will have severe damage to the lungs in that the next time they get a respiratory infection recovery will also be harder. I like my chances better by not catching it.

 

[VacationForever]

This would seem to mean that just about everyone living in a retirement home where there is a COVID-19 infection “are toast”. No indication that this is anything like reality. I would ask the PCP for some facts or reports that back his assertion.

Cheers

Sure, look at the Washington retirement home.

 

[WVBaker]

I like my chances better by not catching it.

Absolutely however, unless you're living in a hermetically sealed device with no contact whatsoever from another human being, there's no way you can guarantee that.

 

[bbodb1]

Maybe part of the problem is the question - are we overreacting has only two possible answers and may not be the proper question to consider.

Without jumping too far down the rabbit hole, perhaps the question we should be considering/answering is what form(s) should our reaction have taken? What should a proper reaction have looked like? Do we have the proper resources and preparation to respond to a similar crisis in the future?

 

[TravelTime]

Maybe part of the problem is the question - are we overreacting has only two possible answers and may not be the proper question to consider.

Without jumping too far down the rabbit hole, perhaps the question we should be considering/answering is what form(s) should our reaction have taken? What should a proper reaction have looked like? Do we have the proper resources and preparation to respond to a similar crisis in the future?

Yes, good questions. It is not either/or.

 

[bbodb1]

Absolutely however, unless you're living in a hermetically sealed device with no contact whatsoever from another human being, there's no way you can guarantee that.

Okay, we are going there!

 

[b2bailey]

Raises hand.

I posted someplace else in the vast numbers of threads on COVID-19 that if I came down with the bug even after following all the recommended procedures, needed a ventilator and someone with a longer life expectancy than I (approaching 80 and in good health) needed one they could have it rather than I and I’ll take my chances. That’s why I have had a DNR, living will and medical POA for many years. I’ve had a great life so far, expect more but if it comes to that, let others benefit.

Just me but I know some friends of my vintage who feel the same.

Cheers

I am guessing most of us would swap our lives for any one of our grandchildren.

 

[b2bailey]

It keeps getting reported high death rates in those with pre-existing health conditions. One third of US population has high blood pressure, which is one of the high risk pre-existing conditions. That is alot of people with one of the pre-existing conditions. For those who think COVID-19 is overhyped, you are burying your heads in the sand.

When we discussed with our PCP on Telehealth yesterday. He said forget about media reports of pre-existing conditions. The seriousness of COVID-19 infection is age-based. If you are old and you get it, you are toast and pray hard.

I've been thinking the only condition I have is my age. Same for my sister. After watching presentation by doctor, I realized she has age + high blood pressure + BMI over 40 (obese). She would be in big trouble.