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Asking the Taboo Question: Is America Overreacting to Coronavirus?

WVBaker

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You do know the difference between scientific modeling and opinion right. :rolleyes::rolleyes:

ps it is not whether it agrees with you.
Just an added note. I see "Rolltydr" has joined the conversation. It's a shame really, he/she wishes to continue the insults and name calling simply because another member disagrees with him/her. We don't always agree with each other or share points of view however, there was no reason for him/her resort to that level.
 

bbodb1

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It’s useless trying to have a conversation with him/her. He/She can’t, or won’t, tell you why he/she thinks what he/she thinks. I came to the conclusion that someone is telling them what to think so they don’t have an answer when you try to get additional information. I finally added him/her to my Ignore list over the weekend when I had a similar, fruitless conversation.
Coming from Neil Young, this is entertaining.
 

heathpack

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....None of them want to risk re-election by tanking their economy. .

some of them actually care about not losing lives. We call them Public Servants.
Well, yeah. That too!
 

Rolltydr

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I disagree. The USA is such a vast array of people and places, it would be difficult to apply a one size fits all to our country.
Think of it this way: If you are a supplier of masks during an emergency when millions of masks are needed, do you want one person calling you to order masks for thousands of locations, or would you rather have those thousands of locations calling you individually? We’re not saying the federal government should make every decision. We’re saying the federal government needs to be coordinating the response so decisions can be made and actions taken more efficiently than having a free for all with every state and or municipality doing their own thing. That is chaos and slows the response time for everyone.
 

b2bailey

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Think of it this way: If you are a supplier of masks during an emergency when millions of masks are needed, do you want one person calling you to order masks for thousands of locations, or would you rather have those thousands of locations calling you individually? We’re not saying the federal government should make every decision. We’re saying the federal government needs to be coordinating the response so decisions can be made and actions taken more efficiently than having a free for all with every state and or municipality doing their own thing. That is chaos and slows the response time for everyone.
I'm thinking less than 60 phone calls. Not thousands of locations.

I'm happy with the way it is going in CA. Governor made a basic edict for the state. Other areas are free to increase as they see fit.

[Political content redacted]
 
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littlestar

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I was wondering why things were so much worse in Italy - one reason cited is that Italy has a considerable amount of older people in its population and especially in the hardest hit areas on Italy.
Another problem that may have made this worse in Italy are the Chinese sweatshops making designer bags and textiles. (Some factories use illegal Chinese workers and if these poor Chinese people/slave labor were ill it would be difficult to trace it). And then you add in Italy’s older population and it is a recipe for disaster. The New Yorker magazine had an interesting 2018 article called “The Chinese Workers Who Assemble Designer Bags in Tuscany”. Some factories are legal and some are not.
 
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Rolltydr

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[Political content redacted]
 
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geekette

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I'm thinking less than 60 phone calls. Not thousands of locations.

I'm happy with the way it is going in CA. Governor made a basic edict for the state. Other areas are free to increase as they see fit.

[Political comment redacted]
!! I had not known that last bit. disgusting.

I did see they were trying to buy exclusive rights from a lab trying to develop vaccine. lab said no, we do this for All People.
 
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queenofthehive

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CO- Skier: I don’t agree with your statements at all. You frivolity towards the whole situation seems extremely irresponsible. It is extremely self centered and I do not think you have a clue to the seriousness of this situation. I hope I am wrong...
 

Panina

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b2bailey

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I'm thinking less than 60 phone calls. Not thousands of locations.

I'm happy with the way it is going in CA. Governor made a basic edict for the state. Other areas are free to increase as they see fit.

[Political content redacted]
Not sure what I wrote that was political. I'm pretty sure it was a statement of fact. Oh well.
 

10spro

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I'm thinking less than 60 phone calls. Not thousands of locations.

I'm happy with the way it is going in CA. Governor made a basic edict for the state. Other areas are free to increase as they see fit.

[Political content redacted]
Whether you like Newsom or not, at least he is taking action and not trying to sugar-coat it.
 

Panina

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Interesting article, disappointed he didn’t project what happens in the US
 

turkel

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I'm thinking less than 60 phone calls. Not thousands of locations.

I'm happy with the way it is going in CA. Governor made a basic edict for the state. Other areas are free to increase as they see fit.

[Political content redacted]
Whether you like Newsom or not, at least he is taking action and not trying to sugar-coat it.
His edict has no teeth. Self quarantine but but but. You can go to work, the doctor, the store and zero enforcement. More about perception than action.

I am not saying I think self quarantine is bad but essentially it’s a request not something law enforcement is involved with, hence no real action.
 

CaliSunshine

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The bay area county stay at home is enforced by law enforcement. Probably not super heavily, but it's there.
 

Chrispee

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We have the stern government requests here in B.C. too, and my take is that they know a large percentage of the population will abide by it even though it’s not the law. I’m sure that the government knows they can’t do much to enforce, but if you can get 80% of the population to self quarantine or social distance then it’s a successful endeavour.
 

WalnutBaron

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The extreme measures being taken to slow the spread of the virus is not craziness. If we don't shut down the spread of this thing, it will overwhelm the country's healthcare system almost overnight. By "flattening the curve", we can allow the healthcare facilities to treat the most afflicted over a period of months instead of days or weeks. Think of it like putting all the sick people through a funnel. The bottom of the funnel can only handle so many patients. If we pour too many into the system too fast, it doesn't treat more people--it just means that thousands will not get treatment, will not be contained or quarantined from the general populous, and a complete, uncontrolled breakout will occur.

If you think I'm overhyping this, I encourage you to read "The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History" by John Barry. It is both fascinating and terrifying.

There is an excellent discussion on this topic from a thread two years ago on TUG if you're interested.
 

geekette

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Our National Guard has been called up but no information about why.

Most mayors and governors I've seen on TV are very leery about complete lockdown without being able to get food and medicine to people. It's not feasible, especially in the very dense areas. Further, we have critical services, food and healthcare are among them,and the people that work in those areas may have kids that need to go somewhere.

The best they can do right now is plead for the public to stay home and not let this thing keep spreading willfully.

.
 

Rolltydr

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Not sure what I wrote that was political. I'm pretty sure it was a statement of fact. Oh well.
On this, I agree with you. I’ve seen much stronger political statements allowed to stand. I hope you were able to read my response before it was taken down but if not, suffice to say we are not necessarily on opposite sides, we just disagree some on tactics. Now, having said that, if we all don’t get on the same side against this virus, it is going to win. I hope that can’t be characterized as political content!


Harry
 

vikingsholm

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Provided that of course the people who did not catch it in the first month will never catch it. The problem with that logic is that they can still catch it later, most estimates are that 50-60% of the population will have it sooner or later
The idea is to flatten the curve. New York is about to find out what this means.
 

DannyTS

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The idea is to flatten the curve. New York is about to find out what this means.
I agree with you , the new numbers show a fatality rate around 1%, much lower than initially expected (4%). Maybe testing and proper care will bring them down even more to around 0.2%
 

CO skier

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I saw one estimate saying that one million Americans could die from Covid-19. I have no idea if this is true and it is possible the number of deaths is more like a flu in the end. At least I hope so.
On a positive note, the doomsday modelers in the UK, at least, are walking back their predictions -- by A LOT.

500,000 predicted deaths in the UK to 20,000, and by extension to the US, 2.2 million down to 85,000, which is in the range for an seasonal flu -- and the flu has a vaccine.

This is from today's Corona virus Task Force briefing at the White House (emphasis added):

Dr. Deborah Birx: (51:35)

I’m sure many of you saw the recent report out of the UK about them adjusting completely their needs. This is really quite important. If you remember, that was the report that said there would be 500,000 deaths in the UK, and 2.2 million deaths in the United States. They have adjusted that number in the UK to 20,000, so half a million to 20,000. We are looking at this in great detail to understand that adjustment.

I am going to say something that is a little complicated, but I am going to say it in a way we can all understand it together. In the model, either you have to have a large group who are asymptomatic, who have never presented for any test in order to have the kind of numbers that were predicted, to get to 60 million people infected or have six million people infected, you have to have a large group of asymptomatics. Because in no country to date have we seen an attack rate over one in a thousand. So either we’re only measuring the tip of the iceberg of the symptomatic cases, and underneath it are a large group of people.

So we’re working very hard to get that antibody test because that’s a good way to figure out who are all these people under here and do they exist? Or we have the transmission completely wrong. So these are the things we’re looking at because the predictions of the models don’t match the reality on the ground in either China, South Korea or Italy. We are about five times the size of Italy (in population).


So if we were Italy and you did all those divisions, Italy should have close to 400,000 deaths. They’re not close to achieving that. So these are the kinds of things we’re trying to understand. Models are models. We’re adapting now to the react… There’s enough data now of the real experience with the coronavirus on the ground to really make these predictions much more sound. So when people start talking about 20% of a population getting infected, it’s very scary. But we don’t have data that matches that based on the experience.
 

am1

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17 000 in one day is not a good sign of things to come. I do not see how what is happening in the US is overreacting. More is needed. 24 hr lockdown except for food and pharmacy.
 
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