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Asking the Taboo Question: Is America Overreacting to Coronavirus?

WVBaker

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Coronavirus and the Isolation Paradox :ponder:

While social distancing may be required to contain the spread of the coronavirus, it may also contribute to poor health in the long run. So while physical isolation will be required for many Americans who have Covid-19 or have been exposed to it, it’s important that we don’t let such measures cause social and emotional isolation, too.
 

Maple_Leaf

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I also wish someone would limit beach excess to the general public to stop the social contacts of large crowds.
How about this guy?
great-white-shark.jpg
 

vikingsholm

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Here is a decent description that I found, with some numerical examples, of why social isolation is being implemented:


Let’s play this out. As of Monday afternoon, there were 4,115 confirmed cases in the US, though testing failures ensure the true number is much higher. Still, let’s use 4,115 as a base. If you keep the assumption that each case creates 2.5 more cases over 5 days, then after 30 days we’ll have 7,564,000 cases. With a 1 percent death rate, that means more than 75,000 deaths — the equivalent of 25 9/11s — in 30 days.


But if social behavior cuts the replication rate to 1.25 and — due to higher health system capacity and more effective quarantining of the elderly — the case fatality rate to 0.5 percent, then after 30 days there will only be a bit more than 533,000 cases and 2,665 deaths. That loss of life would remain tragic, but more than 72,000 lives would be saved.


Here’s the catch: These measures are far more effective if implemented, well, now. “One of the particularly tough things about this infection is you get this delay of about a month between exposure and death,” Kucharski told me. “By the time people are taking it seriously, even if you stop transmission completely, you still likely have another three or four weeks of hospitals filling up.” In other words, you need to stop the disease before the health system is visibly overwhelmed, not after.
 

geist1223

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Everyone wants the Federal Government to pay for everything and do it now. Where do people, local Governments, State Governments, etc think this money is going to come? Oh who cares if the Federal Government goes zillions of dollars in debt. I personally think we should let the Airlines, Cruise Companies, etc sink. They (and many other large companies) raked in Billions since the recession. They then used this cash to buy back their own shares and pay ridiculous amounts of money to their Executives and BOD. Time to Pay the Piper.
 

pedro47

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Everyone wants the Federal Government to pay for everything and do it now. Where do people, local Governments, State Governments, etc think this money is going to come? Oh who cares if the Federal Government goes zillions of dollars in debt. I personally think we should let the Airlines, Cruise Companies, etc sink. They (and many other large companies) raked in Billions since the recession. They then used this cash to buy back their own shares and pay ridiculous amounts of money to their Executives and BOD. Time to Pay the Piper.
Please do not be so cold hearted. Do you know have many people would become unemployed. Let's just looked at some of the largest employers in the United States ;Walt Disney Corp, IBM, Bank of America, Walmart, Amazon, DHL, UPS, Kroger, Target Corp, etc. I can name the top 25 employers in the United States and all would be force to cut back on their total number of employees.
If will be a ripple effect IMHO..

Also, do you know & understand how much Congress members waste on their special projects.
Free college education for their spouses and their children is only one example.
Their hospitalization plan is the very best in the free world.
 

WVBaker

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Here is a decent description that I found, with some numerical examples, of why social isolation is being implemented:


Let’s play this out. As of Monday afternoon, there were 4,115 confirmed cases in the US, though testing failures ensure the true number is much higher. Still, let’s use 4,115 as a base. If you keep the assumption that each case creates 2.5 more cases over 5 days, then after 30 days we’ll have 7,564,000 cases. With a 1 percent death rate, that means more than 75,000 deaths — the equivalent of 25 9/11s — in 30 days.


But if social behavior cuts the replication rate to 1.25 and — due to higher health system capacity and more effective quarantining of the elderly — the case fatality rate to 0.5 percent, then after 30 days there will only be a bit more than 533,000 cases and 2,665 deaths. That loss of life would remain tragic, but more than 72,000 lives would be saved.


Here’s the catch: These measures are far more effective if implemented, well, now. “One of the particularly tough things about this infection is you get this delay of about a month between exposure and death,” Kucharski told me. “By the time people are taking it seriously, even if you stop transmission completely, you still likely have another three or four weeks of hospitals filling up.” In other words, you need to stop the disease before the health system is visibly overwhelmed, not after.
Once again, this article is basing these numbers on assumptions and not actual facts. The end result could be higher or lower. Right now, optimism or pessimism plays a vital role in anyone's outlook. Even the "experts", each with their own opinion, can't agree on what the end result will be. And as the old saying goes, opinions are like ....., well you know. ;)
 

geist1223

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Like I said let the chips fall where they may.
 

JohnPaul

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One thing I haven't noticed people mentioning. It's not just the US. It's the entire world - definition of pandemic.

We have limited numbers of people alive who remember what polio was like and what it took to limit it. We have no one alive who remembers what the 1918 Spanish Flu was like. I think this helps account for the concern of "over reacting".
 

pedro47

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Like I said let the chips fall where they may.
Macy’s, Bloomingdales, and Nordstrom are closing all of their stores because of the Coronavirus. How many employees will be laid off.

The chips are falling.
 

bluehende

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Once again, this article is basing these numbers on assumptions and not actual facts. The end result could be higher or lower. Right now, optimism or pessimism plays a vital role in anyone's outlook. Even the "experts", each with their own opinion, can't agree on what the end result will be. And as the old saying goes, opinions are like ....., well you know. ;)

You do know that the numbers you quote about the flu are also modeled and are not measured. That model has assumptions too and believe it or not those assumptions are the exact same ones you are discounting now.
 

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Everyone wants the Federal Government to pay for everything and do it now. Where do people, local Governments, State Governments, etc think this money is going to come? Oh who cares if the Federal Government goes zillions of dollars in debt. I personally think we should let the Airlines, Cruise Companies, etc sink. They (and many other large companies) raked in Billions since the recession. They then used this cash to buy back their own shares and pay ridiculous amounts of money to their Executives and BOD. Time to Pay the Piper.
No, Everyone does not want Everything. I am a literal person, and I understand stress, but have to be annoying about harsh generalizations such as this. I apologize for that, but I could not let that stand as some kind of grand truth. We are all some mix of stress, fear, frustration and anger. Please feel free to jump on me when I inappropriately pop off, because I'm sure it will happen. We are all humans with loved ones and what we thought we had built for ourselves and our families in grave danger.

For me, airlines are critical infrastructure. We don't need All the airlines, we don't need All the duplicative routes. I don't think we should pick winners and losers, but we require air service. I'd like to see consolidation, but, people smarter than me need to noodle on what to do. I don't fly often, as little as possible, but that's my little life and my little choices. In this world, air travel is no longer a luxury, it is a need.

I have no idea why we would prioritize (non-American taxpaying) cruiselines or hotels. neither are critical. employees and owners in most industries will be hit, I don't see how these 2 are somehow more special. I am willing to listen to arguments on why they should be prioritized. Healthcare workers and food industries rank highest right now, imo. Every human needs both of these.

There is a drum beating on Capitol Hill to bail out The People. It is recognized that we held the bag in other bailouts and we are in deep doo doo, most all of us. Most anyone not a CEO or wealthy retired person is a big loser in this somehow. We are early to figuring this out, but it does seem that there are lobbyists for The People. We are that, too. contact your reps, tell them what you need. lobby their vote on bills of great interest to you. I think 1k to every American is a good idea right now, fast. Less than corp welfare.

Pretty much all of us are tumbling in some surreal blender right now, hoping to not be the hunk the blade catches. We are smart people, we can find solutions to help each other. Some of it is up to us as citizens, but plenty of it must come from our government, which has received payments from us for all our working lives, and after that, too, should we have anything to tax.
 

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Like I said let the chips fall where they may.
Or, let your voice be heard to steer the chips in the desired direction. Congress works for you. Or, watch chips fall and grump about it without trying to force Change.
 

bluehende

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I would like to see the data that backs up that statement. The Johns-Hopkins link I posted show nothing of the sort 4 months into the infection.
Ask and you will receive. Here is an academic (peer reviewed) article using standard modeling. It is kind of hard to measure the future. We have a lot of experience with models because of our experience with other viral outbreaks. Here is the results. I found this because it is being reported that this study is what changed Trump's tone. Hard to call this a hoax with top scientists saying this.


ResultsIn the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour, we would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately 3 months(Figure 1A). In such scenarios, given an estimatedR0of 2.4, we predict 81%ofthe GBand US populationswould be infected over the course of the epidemic. Epidemic timings are approximate given the limitations of surveillance data in both countries: The epidemic is predicted to be broader in the US than in GB and to peak slightly later. This is due to the larger geographic scaleof the US, resulting in more distinct localised epidemics across states (Figure 1B)than seen across GB. The higher peak in mortality in GB

16 March 2020Imperial CollegeCOVID-19 Response TeamDOI: https://doi.org/10.25561/77482Page 7of 20

is due tothe smaller size of the country andits older population compared with the US. In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GBand 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed

That is 2.2 million deaths in the us. As some will say it could be better and you are right. I will counter that statistics say it could even be worse. Now this scenario is for those that say we are over reacting. Here is the link for those that want to follow up with the model for various scenarios.

 
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WVBaker

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You do know that the numbers you quote about the flu are also modeled and are not measured. That model has assumptions too and believe it or not those assumptions are the exact same ones you are discounting now.
We'll disagree but, thanks for the opinion. :rolleyes:
 

DannyTS

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Here is a decent description that I found, with some numerical examples, of why social isolation is being implemented:


Let’s play this out. As of Monday afternoon, there were 4,115 confirmed cases in the US, though testing failures ensure the true number is much higher. Still, let’s use 4,115 as a base. If you keep the assumption that each case creates 2.5 more cases over 5 days, then after 30 days we’ll have 7,564,000 cases. With a 1 percent death rate, that means more than 75,000 deaths — the equivalent of 25 9/11s — in 30 days.


But if social behavior cuts the replication rate to 1.25 and — due to higher health system capacity and more effective quarantining of the elderly — the case fatality rate to 0.5 percent, then after 30 days there will only be a bit more than 533,000 cases and 2,665 deaths. That loss of life would remain tragic, but more than 72,000 lives would be saved.


Here’s the catch: These measures are far more effective if implemented, well, now. “One of the particularly tough things about this infection is you get this delay of about a month between exposure and death,” Kucharski told me. “By the time people are taking it seriously, even if you stop transmission completely, you still likely have another three or four weeks of hospitals filling up.” In other words, you need to stop the disease before the health system is visibly overwhelmed, not after.
Provided that of course the people who did not catch it in the first month will never catch it. The problem with that logic is that they can and probably still catch it later, by most estimates 50-60% of the population will get it anyways.
 

bbodb1

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Everyone wants the Federal Government to pay for everything and do it now. Where do people, local Governments, State Governments, etc think this money is going to come? Oh who cares if the Federal Government goes zillions of dollars in debt. I personally think we should let the Airlines, Cruise Companies, etc sink. They (and many other large companies) raked in Billions since the recession. They then used this cash to buy back their own shares and pay ridiculous amounts of money to their Executives and BOD. Time to Pay the Piper.
In theory, I like where your thinking is here.
BUT do you believe these industries would sink without executives finding even more creative ways to line their pockets? I suspect you would see a slew of M/A with golden parachutes galore....
 

DannyTS

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Here is a decent description that I found, with some numerical examples, of why social isolation is being implemented:


Let’s play this out. As of Monday afternoon, there were 4,115 confirmed cases in the US, though testing failures ensure the true number is much higher. Still, let’s use 4,115 as a base. If you keep the assumption that each case creates 2.5 more cases over 5 days, then after 30 days we’ll have 7,564,000 cases. With a 1 percent death rate, that means more than 75,000 deaths — the equivalent of 25 9/11s — in 30 days.


But if social behavior cuts the replication rate to 1.25 and — due to higher health system capacity and more effective quarantining of the elderly — the case fatality rate to 0.5 percent, then after 30 days there will only be a bit more than 533,000 cases and 2,665 deaths. That loss of life would remain tragic, but more than 72,000 lives would be saved.


Here’s the catch: These measures are far more effective if implemented, well, now. “One of the particularly tough things about this infection is you get this delay of about a month between exposure and death,” Kucharski told me. “By the time people are taking it seriously, even if you stop transmission completely, you still likely have another three or four weeks of hospitals filling up.” In other words, you need to stop the disease before the health system is visibly overwhelmed, not after.
Provided that of course the people who did not catch it in the first month will never catch it. The problem with that logic is that they can still catch it later, most estimates are that 50-60% of the population will have it sooner or later
 

VacationForever

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Provided that of course the people who did not catch it in the first month will never catch it. The problem with that logic is that they can still catch it later because the isolation measures cannot
But that is where vaccines come in to benefit those who have not caught it. We need those vaccines really soon!
 

Rolltydr

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Everyone wants the Federal Government to pay for everything and do it now. Where do people, local Governments, State Governments, etc think this money is going to come? Oh who cares if the Federal Government goes zillions of dollars in debt. I personally think we should let the Airlines, Cruise Companies, etc sink. They (and many other large companies) raked in Billions since the recession. They then used this cash to buy back their own shares and pay ridiculous amounts of money to their Executives and BOD. Time to Pay the Piper.
You sound nice.


Harry
 

b2bailey

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Maybe it's not busy when he goes? I still go to the gym early in the morning. It's my one activity out of the house. Our gym is relatively empty in the early morning. This morning I was two elipticals away from the nearest person so there is social distance. I wipe down the machine thoroughly, use sanitizer and wash my hands before and after. I am in my 50s so not quite in the worst age group.

May need to start running/walking outside if they close this down. I would have gone stir crazy on one of those quarantined cruise ships stuck to my room.
The federal government needs to take full control of this problem and not individuals states liked New York, New Jersey and Connecticut.

I also, feel our top medical experts needs to talk to China medical experts to exchange best practices ideas in controlling the Coronavirus. IMHO.
I disagree. The USA is such a vast array of people and places, it would be difficult to apply a one size fits all to our country.
 

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You do know the difference between scientific modeling and opinion right. :rolleyes::rolleyes:

ps it is not whether it agrees with you.
Perhaps just a bit more than you think so, shall we continue this silly game or move on.
 

DannyTS

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But that is where vaccines come in to benefit those who have not caught it. We need those vaccines really soon!
I agree with you, it becomes obvious that they are slowing it down to a) prepare the hospitals have the proper equipment for everyone: medical staff and patients b) have enought testing kits available to the population c) have those vaccines.

With all the efforts though, the vaccines will not be ready soon enough though
 

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You do know the difference between scientific modeling and opinion right. :rolleyes::rolleyes:

ps it is not whether it agrees with you.
It’s useless trying to have a conversation with him/her. He/She can’t, or won’t, tell you why he/she thinks what he/she thinks. I came to the conclusion that someone is telling them what to think so they don’t have an answer when you try to get additional information. I finally added him/her to my Ignore list over the weekend when I had a similar, fruitless conversation.
 
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