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Asking the Taboo Question: Is America Overreacting to Coronavirus?

VacationForever

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I wonder if the quarantines of the large masses of people is only suppressing the problem, instead of fixing it. Will the infection rate jump back up when people start interacting again? It will be interesting to see what is happening in China as everyone starts mingling again. I have not seen much about China in the news lately.
China is already re-mingling for a month now. Not a significant increase in cases and most new cases are from people flying into China.
 

TravelTime

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China is already re-mingling for a month now. Not a significant increase in cases and most new cases are from people flying into China.
That is amazing that China got it under control. This is encouraging.
 

pedro47

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The federal government needs to take full control of this problem and not individuals states liked New York, New Jersey and Connecticut.

I also, feel our top medical experts needs to talk to China medical experts to exchange best practices ideas in controlling the Coronavirus. IMHO.
 
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Talent312

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The overreaction is due in part to irrational panic... abject fear.
Also, the need for something interesting in our mundane lives.

So, would you rather be off work for no good reason, or be sick?
Personally, I'd prefer not being sick, so I'll go with overreacting.
.
 

T-Dot-Traveller

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"... no country can simply quarantine its way out of the covid-19 crisis, ........

It is obvious this "quarantine" has been haphazard. Cancelling college classes and disbursing all the students -- infected, healthy, or carriers -- from a college community of low risk young people to spread the disease across the country; creating a panic that sends people to mob Costco and grocery stores to hoard goods and pass around the Coronavirus in the checkout line; pack multiple plane loads of people from various countries with raging Coronavirus outbreaks into O'Hare airport to wait for hours literally shoulder to shoulder so that all of them are exposed to the virus, and then they get on connecting flights after clearing customs to destinations across the country.

And now, after all these weeks, the Keystone Cops are starting lock-downs, which did nothing to stop the spread in China and on to the rest of the world?
I agree -
the haphazard way colleges and universities were closed and students dispersed likely added to Covid 19 spread
as did the O’Hare airport debacle .

IMO - China’s lockdown of Wuhan / Hubei - probably did work to slow down rapid spreading to the rest of China
during the traditional Chinese New Year travel time . This likely meant the rest of Chinese hospitals
were not overwhelmed by sick patients.

Yesterday -
A senior Canadian Goverment official was on TV saying : “ Canadians need to come home “
-for most snowbirds this is a poorly thought out “ plan “

let’s have hundreds of thousands of 70+ year olds get on planes and go through airports - so that they
can infect each other . Then show up at hospitals in Canada that have the same limited ICU / ventilator capacity
issues that all hospitals worldwide have .

A better plan would have been to say - if you have a stable situation / isolate in place AND
Canada will ensure that your out of province / country private insurance will be continued until you return
and if you exceed your out of Canada time line - there will be no requalification period to have you provincial run coverage continue .
 

DannyTS

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bbodb1

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I wonder if the quarantines of the large masses of people is only suppressing the problem, instead of fixing it. Will the infection rate jump back up when people start interacting again? It will be interesting to see what is happening in China as everyone starts mingling again. I have not seen much about China in the news lately.
There is ample evidence supporting the idea that social distancing will flatten the infection curve, thus producing fewer cases in the long term and not stressing our health care system past the point of breaking.
 

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I would like to see the data that backs up that statement. The Johns-Hopkins link I posted show nothing of the sort 4 months into the infection.
I'm afraid data and facts have been swept aside, replaced by fear, assumptions and speculations.
 

heathpack

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"Just the facts ma'am."

Wikipedia -- CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.

Johns-Hopkins Coronavirus World Map https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html -- 181,00 cases, 7,100 deaths to date.

(Honest question, "Why, with these numbers, is the flu not declared a "pandemic" every year if Coronavirus, with much, much lower numbers is declared a pandemic?)

There is no question public policy officials grossly overreacted to the Coronavirus outbreak. Do we shut down the entire world economy every year when the flu breaks out?

People die from infectious diseases -- flu, Ebola, HIV, Coronavirus.

And then there is this to consider, "... no country can simply quarantine its way out of the covid-19 crisis, Wendy E. Parmet, the director of the Center for Health Policy and Law at Northeastern University, told me. “There are reasons to be skeptical of the efficacy of quarantine for respiratory diseases like coronavirus.” Quarantines can be a useful tool when done well. They can lower infection rates “a bit” and buy time, she said. But they have been done historically in discriminatory and haphazard ways that provide “a seductive illusion of containment.”

It is obvious this "quarantine" has been haphazard. Cancelling college classes and disbursing all the students -- infected, healthy, or carriers -- from a college community of low risk young people to spread the disease across the country; creating a panic that sends people to mob Costco and grocery stores to hoard goods and pass around the Coronavirus in the checkout line; pack multiple plane loads of people from various countries with raging Coronavirus outbreaks into O'Hare airport to wait for hours literally shoulder to shoulder so that all of them are exposed to the virus, and then they get on connecting flights after clearing customs to destinations across the country.

And now, after all these weeks, the Keystone Cops are starting lock-downs, which did nothing to stop the spread in China and on to the rest of the world?

So we traded the world economy for what looks like just another run-of-the-mill viral infection. A very bad trade, imo.

“a seductive illusion of containment.” is right.
Corona virus is a bigger threat than influenza for the reasons I listed in my posts in the “Whose traveling in March thread”. It’s not a run of the mill infection.

1. It’s more contagious
2. It has a higher fatality rate in all age groups
3. It’s a novel virus, meaning there’s no immunity to it in our population
4. When people get seriously sick with it, they are sicker longer than with influenza a tie up more nursing care and ventilator days

China solved their outbreak by lockdown, which worked. It didn’t contain the spread of disease beyond their borders, but it slowed spread enough to save many lives. Their economy took a big hit but the people who run the economy are still alive, so they can rebuild their economy over time.

Panic buying IMO has happened because of poor leadership- mixed messages from the top levels of federal government and from irresponsible influential people minimizing the risk.

If we could rely on individuals to buy in to acting for the greater good, lockdowns could be unnecessary. But there’s always people who know better, or won’t be told what to do. So: lockdowns come.

How do lockdowns help? They help slow the spread of disease so that everyone doesn’t get sick at once. This means it’s more feasible to deliver healthcare to the sick, and we don’t lose lives that could have been saved had the healthcare system not been overwhelmed. Slowed spread of disease also let a degree of population immunity build, at least for this season. Which means when the lockdown is over, people can mingle more safely because perhaps 20% of folks you encounter have already had the infection and won’t pass it on.

It’s simply not logical that all these government officials are over reacting to the threat. We are seeing dramatic containment measures being put in place by governors and mayors with all kinds of backgrounds. None of them want to risk re-election by tanking their economy. The fact that they have access to better information than the rest of us, and they’re making these decisions, should speak volumes.

Totally agree that the implementation of a lot of these individual measures have been inelegant to say the least. Many times the specific way in which some measure was initially implemented made the problem worse, at least at first. That’s a matter of preparedness and leadership. I’d criticize the roll out of the various responses pretty heavily. But that’s water under the bridge, if our leaders get their acts together (as they seem to be) that’s all I can ask at this point in time.
 

SmithOp

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actually the number of new cases in China is higher today than a month ago which shows that the panic lock-down is destroying the world economy and resolving nothing.


The data you linked doesn’t support your statement, total cases line has flattened, the lock-down is working. When the line flattens, NEW cases = 0.




Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro
 

LMD

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I personally feel like in some areas we are underreacting. I don't understand why they haven't federally mandated closure of certain things like bars, restaurants and gyms. There are people who still think this is a hoax. One of our local Drs commented on how frustrated she has been trying to convince people otherwise. It is better to be safe than sorry. We don't know what the long term health consequences are of this virus either. I think some people that "recover" will suffer chronic pulmonary issues due to changes in the lung tissue. Can you imagine what would have happened here if the US was the first to suffer from this virus rather than China? It would have been absolutely disastrous!
 

VacationForever

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The overreaction is due in part to irrational panic... abject fear.
Also, the need for something interesting in our mundane lives.

So, would you rather be off work for no good reason, or be sick?
Personally, I'd prefer not being sick, so I'll go with overreacting.
.
What the world is now doing was what China was doing until they had it under control. China locked down entire cities and had everyone stay home. It is not panic or overreacting.
 
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Sandi Bo

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We are asking our health care providers to risk (and some will lose) their lives. Seeing many letters from physicians with similar messages (stay home). I haven't seen any from physicians feeling otherwise. Here's one my daughter (a physician in Omaha) shared this morning:

From a Seattle Emergency Physician to my wonderful hometown of Omaha, NE.

I am writing to you from the medical front lines of the US epicenter of this pandemic with angst knowing what is in store for you. I am not warning you this is coming to Omaha, I’m telling you it is already there, quietly spreading amongst you. This is a sleeping giant.

Lack of testing nationwide has given people a false sense of reassurance yielding low numbers. I PROMISE you, its already at YOUR office and YOUR gym. Many are likely not feeling the symptoms yet and are going about their days thinking "I feel healthy so I'm fine".

The biggest myth about the COVID-19 pandemic is that the doctors and hospitals will be the life savers. Actually, it will be all of you as a result of the decisions you make today. Our hospital systems will be overwhelmed, resources will run out, ventilators will run short. We will not be able to adequately treat all who will be in need.
Staying home = lives saved. It is that simple. It is in your hands, not ours. As a doctor, I cannot protect my patients in Seattle, or my Omaha family from this virus, but YOU all can protect your own families and mine as well within the comfort of your own home.

Please stop comparing this to influenza.
To the young people- please stop blowing it off.
The cavalier mentality of a few will collapse all of our efforts. Thorough hand washing is good, but not good enough.
Make drastic changes to your daily lives now and get ready for the long haul.

However many proactive steps the government asks you to take, take ten more. They have been behind the game every step of the way. Consider what restrictions they place as your BARE MINIMUM. Make your goal to do better than what they ask. The greatest generation was asked to go to war....you are asked just to stay home. Please protect your families, and protect mine too. You have far more power than you know.

It’s so simple.
Stay home and save a life.
 

presley

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I think there is overreacting by the panic people who are let fear run their lives.
I think there is a degree of underreacting by the government who I feel has made a lot of very bad choices, especially here in the San Diego area. We are finally getting strict, but to not test sick people in the high risk group with all of the symptoms just because someone was still able to walk around and get out was a really stupid thing to do. Hopefully, we are beyond that at this point, but that was just last week.
 

bluehende

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"Just the facts ma'am."

Wikipedia -- CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.

Johns-Hopkins Coronavirus World Map https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html -- 181,00 cases, 7,100 deaths to date.

(Honest question, "Why, with these numbers, is the flu not declared a "pandemic" every year if Coronavirus, with much, much lower numbers is declared a pandemic?)

There is no question public policy officials grossly overreacted to the Coronavirus outbreak. Do we shut down the entire world economy every year when the flu breaks out?

People die from infectious diseases -- flu, Ebola, HIV, Coronavirus.

And then there is this to consider, "... no country can simply quarantine its way out of the covid-19 crisis, Wendy E. Parmet, the director of the Center for Health Policy and Law at Northeastern University, told me. “There are reasons to be skeptical of the efficacy of quarantine for respiratory diseases like coronavirus.” Quarantines can be a useful tool when done well. They can lower infection rates “a bit” and buy time, she said. But they have been done historically in discriminatory and haphazard ways that provide “a seductive illusion of containment.”

It is obvious this "quarantine" has been haphazard. Cancelling college classes and disbursing all the students -- infected, healthy, or carriers -- from a college community of low risk young people to spread the disease across the country; creating a panic that sends people to mob Costco and grocery stores to hoard goods and pass around the Coronavirus in the checkout line; pack multiple plane loads of people from various countries with raging Coronavirus outbreaks into O'Hare airport to wait for hours literally shoulder to shoulder so that all of them are exposed to the virus, and then they get on connecting flights after clearing customs to destinations across the country.

And now, after all these weeks, the Keystone Cops are starting lock-downs, which did nothing to stop the spread in China and on to the rest of the world?

So we traded the world economy for what looks like just another run-of-the-mill viral infection. A very bad trade, imo.

“a seductive illusion of containment.” is right.
The one flaw in your comparison is that one is an estimated number for a year with good data to back it up. The other number is a to date number that changes every day.....and it does not go down. I really hope you can do that comparison at the end of a year and get the same qualitative conclusion.

PS I get the flu shot every year and still avoid sick people to limit my exposure.
 

pedro47

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I also wish someone would limit beach excess to the general public to stop the social contacts of large crowds.
 

Rolltydr

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I think there is overreacting by the panic people who are let fear run their lives.
I think there is a degree of underreacting by the government who I feel has made a lot of very bad choices, especially here in the San Diego area. We are finally getting strict, but to not test sick people in the high risk group with all of the symptoms just because someone was still able to walk around and get out was a really stupid thing to do. Hopefully, we are beyond that at this point, but that was just last week.
The worst case scenario if we overreact is that the economy is seriously damaged but fewer people get sick, fewer people are admitted to hospitals and fewer people die than is currently being estimated. The worst case scenario if we under react is that the economy is seriously damaged AND more people get sick, our health system is overrun with cases similar to what is happening in Italy and as many as a million people or more will die. So, bring that down to your immediate family level. You can take an action that may cause you to miss a vacation but greatly improves the odds that one or more members of your family will not get ill, potentially seriously ill, and perhaps even die. Or, you can take an action that gives you a chance to have that vacation later but exponentially increases the chance that one or more family members will get sick, perhaps be hospitalized and potentially die. It’s not that hard. I know some will say they don’t believe this and they don’t believe that and that‘s fine. But again, what is the risk if you’re correct and what is the risk if you’re wrong? None of us know for sure, but it could be your family.
 

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They are not automatically exempt. They need to apply for the exemption and show that the bill would be detrimental to surviving. I am not sure how easy this will be since I assume most small businesses will be applying.
Mnuchin appears to be committed to making things fast and easy. I think he grasps the urgency and has not created new departments to handle it, so I would think Fast And Easy. Please go ahead and believe that until you find it isn't so. Stress and worry are unproductive, especially since there is nothing you can do about it.
 

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I also, feel our top medical experts needs to talk to China medical experts to exchange best practices ideas in controlling the Coronavirus. IMHO.
According to several doctors and experts, they are communicating across the world, trying to determine best practices, etc.
 

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....None of them want to risk re-election by tanking their economy. .

some of them actually care about not losing lives. We call them Public Servants.
 

Big Matt

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Mnuchin appears to be committed to making things fast and easy. I think he grasps the urgency and has not created new departments to handle it, so I would think Fast And Easy. Please go ahead and believe that until you find it isn't so. Stress and worry are unproductive, especially since there is nothing you can do about it.
I worry a little bit about the drastic rate cuts. I work in the mortgage industry as a management consultant, and right now rates are so low that once lenders can handle the capacity almost everyone will refinance. That sounds good until unemployment goes up and people can't pay their mortgages. A simpler and more effective solution would have been to contemplate a payment holiday or deferral as with Soldiers and Sailors who are deployed. I like the fact that Mnuchin is taking a pragmatic approach, but I think we'll need addtional measures.
 

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I'm afraid data and facts have been swept aside, replaced by fear, assumptions and speculations.
we will have all the facts after this is over. We have many unknowns. Modelling is all that can be done.

What facts do you think you have about how many Americans will be affected and how many will die? How could you possibly have these facts until the death and destruction is done?

Should we all just stumble around blindly until there are facts or should we take precautions? I'm not waiting to find out the precise number of people that died in my state.

This is A New Virus. We have no history. We have a few countries that went before us to try to learn from. That's It. Until our final count of death toll is known. and nobody knows when that will be.

You're looking for what doesn't exist. Good luck with that.
 
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