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Asking the Taboo Question: Is America Overreacting to Coronavirus?

Rolltydr

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I'm in agreement that decisions should be made at the state level, or even by county. Why should the entire country be ruled by conditions in NYC, LA and other heavily populated areas? Perhaps social distancing should be a federal mandate. But I feel the statewide edict in CA for all over 65 to stay home is extreme.
Because everybody doesn’t stay in one place. There is free movement all around the country. One can travel to many states every single day. Which state rules will the virus obey? None of them. That’s why we need a nationwide coordinated response. Otherwise, we’re wasting our time and the coronavirus will continue spreading exponentially. Unfortunately, that’s where we are today.


Harry
 

am1

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Right Wall Street is lote concerned if the stock will go up or down and not underlying assets, future growth after recovery etc. makes sense but creates its own problem. Where they are happy to profit from.
 

rboesl

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When this all started I thought what was happening was an overreaction. But, seeing the projections, understanding that all we're doing is testing, and considering there's no treatment, I don't think we are overreacting. In addition, I don't think there's enough coordination between Federal & State governments. A state governor shouldn't feel it necessary to publicly state in a press release what he feels he needs from the federal government. That should have already been communicated between the leaders.
 

Brett

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Right Wall Street is lote concerned if the stock will go up or down and not underlying assets, future growth after recovery etc. makes sense but creates its own problem. Where they are happy to profit from.
OK, I'm not sure what you mean but yes, the stock market goes up or down
 

chapjim

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I lean towards the government has not leveled with the American people. My nurse friend said it is not true that healthy people without preexisting conditions cannot get seriously sick. She is seeing it first hand.
Your nurse friend's statement is undoubtedly true but I don't think anyone in the government said anything to the contrary. If that is the case, you're making a huge leap in suspecting the government has not leveled with the American people. The Chinese government didn't level with the Chinese people, nor with the rest of the world.

It's all about probabilities. Younger, healthy people without certain conditions are far less likely to get seriously sick but it certainly can happen.

Older persons with certain conditions are more likely to become seriously ill but many will not.
 

chapjim

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What I don't understand is the bill exempts the largest companies who can best afford this? Small (and large) companies will lay off employees. There is no sick pay if you are laid off. They should boost unemployment which will swell.

California (and other states) should immediately repeal AB 5 and allow gig workers so people can boost their incomes with side jobs - they will need it. Instacart is hiring...
The bill was changed so that companies with 50 or fewer employees are exempt.
 

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I feel we are under reacting. Our federal government knew about this virus in December 2019.
Secondly, why is the US Senate on recess and not passing legislation in regard to this virus. IMHO.

This virus is a national problem.
The US government knew there was a virus in December 2019. It is not accurate to say the US government knew ABOUT the virus. The US government would have known more ABOUT the virus except the Chinese government, that unquestionably knew ABOUT the virus, tried to cover it up.
 

chapjim

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The business that will be most effective are small business, restaurants, the airlines & cruise lines, the entertainment and sporting industries IMHO.

Thus, Wall Street will be following the fears of the American Public.

Is this a National Pandemic? The Governor of New York State; stated Yes.

This Coronavirus is not under control anywhere on planet on Earth.
It is NOT a national pandemic. National and pandemic don't go together. Pandemic means much more widely spread than national.
 

T-Dot-Traveller

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Canadian Provinces have instituted similar shutdowns for similar reasons to USA states .

(ie.)- there are only so many ventilators & ICU beds per 10 thousands residents;
and no government wants to be known as “the next Italy”.

Most of the identified cases until the last few days were inbound travellers who reported symptoms and were tested after returning home .
Canada may be a week or two behind the USA on community transmission (IMO)

whether there is any difference in outcomes from one jurisdiction to another will be an interesting public policy
experiment . One I wish none of has to watch unfold .
 

CO skier

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"Just the facts ma'am."

Wikipedia -- CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.

Johns-Hopkins Coronavirus World Map https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html -- 181,00 cases, 7,100 deaths to date.

(Honest question, "Why, with these numbers, is the flu not declared a "pandemic" every year if Coronavirus, with much, much lower numbers is declared a pandemic?)

There is no question public policy officials grossly overreacted to the Coronavirus outbreak. Do we shut down the entire world economy every year when the flu breaks out?

People die from infectious diseases -- flu, Ebola, HIV, Coronavirus.

And then there is this to consider, "... no country can simply quarantine its way out of the covid-19 crisis, Wendy E. Parmet, the director of the Center for Health Policy and Law at Northeastern University, told me. “There are reasons to be skeptical of the efficacy of quarantine for respiratory diseases like coronavirus.” Quarantines can be a useful tool when done well. They can lower infection rates “a bit” and buy time, she said. But they have been done historically in discriminatory and haphazard ways that provide “a seductive illusion of containment.”

It is obvious this "quarantine" has been haphazard. Cancelling college classes and disbursing all the students -- infected, healthy, or carriers -- from a college community of low risk young people to spread the disease across the country; creating a panic that sends people to mob Costco and grocery stores to hoard goods and pass around the Coronavirus in the checkout line; pack multiple plane loads of people from various countries with raging Coronavirus outbreaks into O'Hare airport to wait for hours literally shoulder to shoulder so that all of them are exposed to the virus, and then they get on connecting flights after clearing customs to destinations across the country.

And now, after all these weeks, the Keystone Cops are starting lock-downs, which did nothing to stop the spread in China and on to the rest of the world?

So we traded the world economy for what looks like just another run-of-the-mill viral infection. A very bad trade, imo.

“a seductive illusion of containment.” is right.
 

klpca

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"Just the facts ma'am."

Wikipedia -- CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.

Johns-Hopkins Coronavirus World Map https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html -- 181,00 cases, 7,100 deaths to date.

(Honest question, "Why, with these numbers, is the flu not declared a "pandemic" every year if Coronavirus, with much, much lower numbers is declared a pandemic?)

There is no question public policy officials grossly overreacted to the Coronavirus outbreak. Do we shut down the entire world economy every year when the flu breaks out?

People die from infectious diseases -- flu, Ebola, HIV, Coronavirus.

And then there is this to consider, "... no country can simply quarantine its way out of the covid-19 crisis, Wendy E. Parmet, the director of the Center for Health Policy and Law at Northeastern University, told me. “There are reasons to be skeptical of the efficacy of quarantine for respiratory diseases like coronavirus.” Quarantines can be a useful tool when done well. They can lower infection rates “a bit” and buy time, she said. But they have been done historically in discriminatory and haphazard ways that provide “a seductive illusion of containment.”

It is obvious this "quarantine" has been haphazard. Cancelling college classes and disbursing all the students -- infected, healthy, or carriers -- from a college community of low risk young people to spread the disease across the country; creating a panic that sends people to mob Costco and grocery stores to hoard goods and pass around the Coronavirus in the checkout line; pack multiple plane loads of people from various countries with raging Coronavirus outbreaks into O'Hare airport to wait for hours literally shoulder to shoulder so that all of them are exposed to the virus, and then they get on connecting flights after clearing customs to destinations across the country.

And now, after all these weeks, the Keystone Cops are starting lock-downs, which did nothing to stop the spread in China and on to the rest of the world?

So we traded the world economy for what looks like just another run-of-the-mill viral infection. A very bad trade, imo.

“a seductive illusion of containment.” is right.
You may feel differently if you were the person on chemo or who lives on immunosupressants (that's me). I can get a flu shot and so can everyone else. But there's nothing for this virus. My friend is getting a bone marrow transplant soon (maybe - not sure if they have delayed it). This virus would kill her, but the transplant is her only hope. She is 58.

That said, the response to this has been a bungled mess and is what has caused the hysteria in my opinion. The media took the bit and ran with it and the message is disjointed and out of control.
 

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....One I wish none of has to watch unfold .

yes. I am trying to prepare myself mentally for great sadness ahead.
 

TravelTime

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The bill was changed so that companies with 50 or fewer employees are exempt.
They are not automatically exempt. They need to apply for the exemption and show that the bill would be detrimental to surviving. I am not sure how easy this will be since I assume most small businesses will be applying.
 

CO skier

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You may feel differently if you were the person on chemo or who lives on immunosupressants (that's me).
I am just presenting some facts that show how you and most of the public are being seduced by public policy officials into an illusion of containment. The Covid-19 virus will run its course with or without ineffective "quarantines" just as it did in China and other countries. That is what public officials are not revealing. The Coronavirus infection is too far along the curve at this point for much flattening.

But politicians feel obligated to "do something" and do more damage than if they had just let the infection run its course with some minimal degree of "social distancing" like allowing only 1/3 the usual number of patrons into a restaurant at a time, instead of closing down the entire restaurant industry in certain cities.
 

TravelTime

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"Just the facts ma'am."

Wikipedia -- CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.

Johns-Hopkins Coronavirus World Map https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html -- 181,00 cases, 7,100 deaths to date.

(Honest question, "Why, with these numbers, is the flu not declared a "pandemic" every year if Coronavirus, with much, much lower numbers is declared a pandemic?)

There is no question public policy officials grossly overreacted to the Coronavirus outbreak. Do we shut down the entire world economy every year when the flu breaks out?

People die from infectious diseases -- flu, Ebola, HIV, Coronavirus.

And then there is this to consider, "... no country can simply quarantine its way out of the covid-19 crisis, Wendy E. Parmet, the director of the Center for Health Policy and Law at Northeastern University, told me. “There are reasons to be skeptical of the efficacy of quarantine for respiratory diseases like coronavirus.” Quarantines can be a useful tool when done well. They can lower infection rates “a bit” and buy time, she said. But they have been done historically in discriminatory and haphazard ways that provide “a seductive illusion of containment.”

It is obvious this "quarantine" has been haphazard. Cancelling college classes and disbursing all the students -- infected, healthy, or carriers -- from a college community of low risk young people to spread the disease across the country; creating a panic that sends people to mob Costco and grocery stores to hoard goods and pass around the Coronavirus in the checkout line; pack multiple plane loads of people from various countries with raging Coronavirus outbreaks into O'Hare airport to wait for hours literally shoulder to shoulder so that all of them are exposed to the virus, and then they get on connecting flights after clearing customs to destinations across the country.

And now, after all these weeks, the Keystone Cops are starting lock-downs, which did nothing to stop the spread in China and on to the rest of the world?

So we traded the world economy for what looks like just another run-of-the-mill viral infection. A very bad trade, imo.

“a seductive illusion of containment.” is right.
You asked:
(Honest question, "Why, with these numbers, is the flu not declared a "pandemic" every year if Coronavirus, with much, much lower numbers is declared a pandemic?)

I think the reason is because they expect the number of deaths to exponentially expand as the number of cases grow. I saw one estimate saying that one million Americans could die from Covid-19. I have no idea if this is true and it is possible the number of deaths is more like a flu in the end. At least I hope so.
 

klpca

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I am just presenting some facts that show how you and most of the public are being seduced by public policy officials into an illusion of containment. The Covid-19 virus will run its course with or without ineffective "quarantines" just as it did in China and other countries. That is what public officials are not revealing. The Coronavirus infection is too far along the curve at this point for much flattening.

But politicians feel obligated to "do something" and do more damage than if they had just let the infection run its course with some minimal degree of "social distancing" like allowing only 1/3 the usual number of patrons into a restaurant at a time, instead of closing down the entire restaurant industry in certain cities.
I wouldn't know - I'm staying very close to home. Restaurants aren't safe for me, or stores, or theaters etc. I'm doing all that I can. I worry about my family getting exposed at work and bringing it into the house. I'd love some reduced risk.
 

CO skier

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I wouldn't know - I'm staying very close to home. Restaurants aren't safe for me, or stores, or theaters etc. I'm doing all that I can. I worry about my family getting exposed at work and bringing it into the house. I'd love some reduced risk.
That is how many at-risk people handle flu season, and that is how this infection should have been handled -- those at risk minimize their contact with others, instead of the government instituting ineffective quarantines that are too much, too late.
 

CaliSunshine

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It
"Just the facts ma'am."

Wikipedia -- CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.

Johns-Hopkins Coronavirus World Map https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html -- 181,00 cases, 7,100 deaths to date.

(Honest question, "Why, with these numbers, is the flu not declared a "pandemic" every year if Coronavirus, with much, much lower numbers is declared a pandemic?)

There is no question public policy officials grossly overreacted to the Coronavirus outbreak. Do we shut down the entire world economy every year when the flu breaks out?

People die from infectious diseases -- flu, Ebola, HIV, Coronavirus.

And then there is this to consider, "... no country can simply quarantine its way out of the covid-19 crisis, Wendy E. Parmet, the director of the Center for Health Policy and Law at Northeastern University, told me. “There are reasons to be skeptical of the efficacy of quarantine for respiratory diseases like coronavirus.” Quarantines can be a useful tool when done well. They can lower infection rates “a bit” and buy time, she said. But they have been done historically in discriminatory and haphazard ways that provide “a seductive illusion of containment.”

It is obvious this "quarantine" has been haphazard. Cancelling college classes and disbursing all the students -- infected, healthy, or carriers -- from a college community of low risk young people to spread the disease across the country; creating a panic that sends people to mob Costco and grocery stores to hoard goods and pass around the Coronavirus in the checkout line; pack multiple plane loads of people from various countries with raging Coronavirus outbreaks into O'Hare airport to wait for hours literally shoulder to shoulder so that all of them are exposed to the virus, and then they get on connecting flights after clearing customs to destinations across the country.

And now, after all these weeks, the Keystone Cops are starting lock-downs, which did nothing to stop the spread in China and on to the rest of the world?

So we traded the world economy for what looks like just another run-of-the-mill viral infection. A very bad trade, imo.

“a seductive illusion of containment.” is right.
The way you're comparing is a bit apples to oranges. We do nothing special for the flu except vaccinate, and it causes tens of thousands of deaths a year and hundreds of thousands of hospitalizations.

If we don't do something severe (large scale quarantines) for the coronavirus 40%-60% of the country's/world's population will get it, and of those 0.5-1.5% will die, and 10%+ will need to get hospitalized.

That's a huge difference on the effects on our health system. That's a huge difference in the number of deaths.
 

TravelTime

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It


The way you're comparing is a bit apples to oranges. We do nothing special for the flu except vaccinate, and it causes tens of thousands of deaths a year and hundreds of thousands of hospitalizations.

If we don't do something severe (large scale quarantines) for the coronavirus 40%-60% of the country's/world's population will get it, and of those 0.5-1.5% will die, and 10%+ will need to get hospitalized.

That's a huge difference on the effects on our health system. That's a huge difference in the number of deaths.
I wonder if the quarantines of the large masses of people is only suppressing the problem, instead of fixing it. Will the infection rate jump back up when people start interacting again? It will be interesting to see what is happening in China as everyone starts mingling again. I have not seen much about China in the news lately.
 

CO skier

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You asked:
(Honest question, "Why, with these numbers, is the flu not declared a "pandemic" every year if Coronavirus, with much, much lower numbers is declared a pandemic?)

I think the reason is because they expect the number of deaths to exponentially expand as the number of cases grow. I saw one estimate saying that one million Americans could die from Covid-19. I have no idea if this is true and it is possible the number of deaths is more like a flu in the end. At least I hope so.
Thanks. I also found this (emphasis added):


"A pandemic is the “worldwide spread of a new disease,” according to the WHO. There’s no cut-and-dry criteria for what reaches the level of pandemic and what does not, and there is no threshold of cases or deaths that triggers the definition."


The annual flu is not a new disease, so it is not declared a pandemic each year.

The World Health Organization is reluctant to declare pandemics, because it can lead to "unnecessary panic."
 

geekette

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I wonder if the quarantines of the large masses of people is only suppressing the problem, instead of fixing it. Will the infection rate jump back up when people start interacting again? It will be interesting to see what is happening in China as everyone starts mingling again. I have not seen much about China in the news lately.
I did see something about China today. It was characterized as "a few cases popping up here and there".
 

CO skier

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If we don't do something severe (large scale quarantines) for the coronavirus 40%-60% of the country's/world's population will get it, and of those 0.5-1.5% will die, and 10%+ will need to get hospitalized.
I would like to see the data that backs up that statement. The Johns-Hopkins link I posted show nothing of the sort 4 months into the infection.
 
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