Asking the Taboo Question: Is America Overreacting to Coronavirus?

[youppi]

I don't think that you can't pull conclusion on the strategy of Sweden vs the strategy of USA by looking on the data stats at this moment.
Just look at the data between the two neighbor countries, Canada and USA, where both countries have the same strategy except that Canada started earlier to see a big difference in number of total cases end deaths per million.

 

[DannyTS]

I recommend this website https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ it isn't political, simply statistical. Of course it relies on numbers available through governmental and health organization information sources.

The key line I look at is the deaths/million population. There were earlier comments about Sweden. Sweden has given just over 5000 tests/million and has 86 deaths/million. The US has given just over 7500 tests/million and has 54 deaths/million. I have been watching this site for a couple of weeks and the US test/million has gone up significantly, as has the number of recorded deaths.

Since Sweden, and in the US Florida have taken such a laissez faire approach to social distancing it will be important to watch their numbers. There is a big push, particularly on the right, to move to drop shutdowns and open up again. They point to the modeling that now shows fewer expected deaths as justification. However they seem to ignore the impact of the shutdowns in changing the modeling.

I hate to think it, but until there is a vaccine or a sure cure for people struck with this virus, we will have a long time to face this problem.

I caution everyone that reads too much into relatively small differences, especially in the short term, to prove success or not of any country or state. In Canada we have had a relatively uniform approach and some differences are hard to explain.
British Columbia and especially Vancouver has a lot of Asian population and a lot of travel from that area. Yet , the numbers do not reflect an intuitively increased risk. As a matter of fact Ontario is doing significantly worse per capita than BC. Quebec was doing very well at one point and then bang, more cases than everyone else.

Also, success will be judged on a number of factors, not just on deaths in week X. Because of the more relaxed measures, you would expect Sweden to have more cases at the beginning but maybe the length to be shorter. What matters more is the total number of cases in the next 6-9 months and even after.

In Sweden I am not seeing the feared Apocalypse.. But more importantly, what we have to see in the end is yes, total number of deaths from Coronavirus but also how an economy that is not shattered to pieces can treat people's health in the long run. How many people did not cross the obesity line by staying excessively at home for prolonged periods of time? Did the suicide rate went up in the next year? How many people are not losing their mental health being pushed to the edge of a modern society? How many more people have to live on the streets due to prolonged economic problems? How many of those that support families in other countries still have the means to do it? How will those families do without the support?

 

[youppi]

I caution everyone that reads too much into relatively small differences, especially in the short term, to prove success or not of any country or state. In Canada we have had a relatively uniform approach and some differences are hard to explain.
British Columbia and especially Vancouver has a lot of Asian population and a lot of travel from that area. Yet , the numbers do not reflect an intuitively increased risk. As a matter of fact Ontario is doing significantly worse per capita than BC. Quebec was doing very well at one point and then bang, more cases than everyone else.

Also, success will be judged on a number of factors, not just on deaths in week X. Because of the more relaxed measures, you would expect Sweden to have more cases at the beginning but maybe the length to be shorter. What matters more is the total number of cases in the next 6-9 months and even after.

In Sweden I am not seeing the feared Apocalypse.. But more importantly, what we have to see in the end is yes, total number of deaths from Coronavirus but also how an economy that is not shattered to pieces can treat people's health in the long run. How many people did not cross the obesity line by staying excessively at home for prolonged periods of time? Did the suicide rate went up in the next year? How many people are not losing their mental health being pushed to the edge of a modern society? How many more people have to live on the streets due to prolonged economic problems? How many of those that support families in other countries still have the means to do it? How will those families do without the support?

Yes Vancouver area in BC has a big community of Chinese but Toronto area in Ontario has a bigger community of Chinese and has also the biggest community of Italian and Iranian in Canada.
China, Italy and Iran were the 3 most affected countries at the beginning and a lot of people living in the Toronto area traveled there.
So, I'm not surprise that Ontario is doing worse that BC.
One thing that affected the Quebec is their spring break happen the first week of March before the shutdown where the other Provinces spring break happen during or after the shutdown.

 

[DannyTS]

I caution everyone that reads too much into relatively small differences, especially in the short term, to prove success or not of any country or state. In Canada we have had a relatively uniform approach and some differences are hard to explain.
British Columbia and especially Vancouver has a lot of Asian population and a lot of travel from that area. Yet , the numbers do not reflect an intuitively increased risk. As a matter of fact Ontario is doing significantly worse per capita than BC. Quebec was doing very well at one point and then bang, more cases than everyone else.

Also, success will be judged on a number of factors, not just on deaths in week X. Because of the more relaxed measures, you would expect Sweden to have more cases at the beginning but maybe the length to be shorter. What matters more is the total number of cases in the next 6-9 months and even after.

In Sweden I am not seeing the feared Apocalypse.. But more importantly, what we have to see in the end is yes, total number of deaths from Coronavirus but also how an economy that is not shattered to pieces can treat people's health in the long run. How many people did not cross the obesity line by staying excessively at home for prolonged periods of time? Did the suicide rate went up in the next year? How many people are not losing their mental health being pushed to the edge of a modern society? How many more people have to live on the streets due to prolonged economic problems? How many of those that support families in other countries still have the means to do it? How will those families do without the support?

to add to my previous comment:
The number of airline passengers is about 2.5 times higher in Toronto than in Montreal but
Montreal has 5600 cases, Toronto 1769

 

[DannyTS]

One thing that affected the Quebec is their spring break happen the first week of March before the shutdown where the other Provinces spring break happen during or after the shutdown.

If you look at the airline traffic, you will see that Toronto is higher than Montreal any month of the year, any day of the month so I am not buying the spring break argument

 

[Talent312]

"There three types of lies: Lies, damn lies and statistics."

A statistic in your favor does no good, if you're on the wrong side of the numbers.
Even if only one in 200 die from something, you could be the one.
<ducking>

.

 

[DannyTS]

another physician talking about the Covid 19 death certificates

 

[Monykalyn]

• Smoking - 435,000 (do we ban all smoking?)
• Being overweight and obesity - 111,900 (do we lockdown overweight people, not let them eat?)
• Alcohol - 85,000 (back to prohibition?)

which ironically-puts these people at higher risk of dying from a random illness as well.

I do see when they say “no underlying conditions” that most of the pictures of the victims would be classified as living with class 1 Obesity (BMI 30-34.99). This disease is overlooked since they are only counting the weight related conditions.

This is one of the “underlying conditions” no one is talking about. This may actually put Obesity upfront and allow it to be recognized as a disease that it truly is. It’s not only genetic, there are so many other factors. Hormones play a huge role in weight regulation. White fat cells vs brown fat cells all contribute to different hormones imbalances. White fat cells also effect inflammation and an increase in pro inflammation cytokines. They also effect the immune system. They have found most people with covid are dying due to an over active immune system and what they are calling a cytokine storm leading to inflammation and acute infiltrates in the lungs. When you talk about obesity it is so much more than eat less and move more. Which that equation absolutely rings true, there is data to suggest that it’s much more complicated. The biggest issue with obesity is we blame the person for their eating habits, which shouldn’t be the case. It’s also much more difficult for a person who loses weight to keep it off due to the body’s normal response is to replenish the fat stores, to do this the bodies hunger hormone is increased after weight loss. So when a person loses weight, they are hungrier. It’s also why when a person is 220 pounds and loses 20 to go to 200 pounds, that person has to eat less calories in their diet to maintain that weight compared to someone who was already 200 points. There is a lot of interesting things coming from the field.

as a society we need to be less critical of patients living with obesity and develop and understanding of what they may be going through. My two cents

I am a RD and this has always been fascinating to me. We've suspected that there are certain "weight points" in your life that train your brain to keep that number of fat cells. Through childhood, teens and up until early twenties. And there is also some smallish evidence that once brain is trained for your specific number of fat cells your body will do whatever it can to maintain that. Like liposuction patients will regain the weight without a ton of hard work. I too hope we treat obesity better. Socioeconomic status also plays a HUGE role in nutrition/obesity. Obesity is an under treated disease for sure.

Sweden is also accepting that death will happen whereas Gov. Cuomo says even one life matters. Which one is a reality-based statement?

Both are reality based and both are true. However we have taken to the extreme in US that no one should ever die-doctors being sued when 101 year old grandad dies. We fear death instead of accepting it is the end of the journey and inevitable. Doesn't mean we should treat ourselves well and keep healthy etc, but how often do you hear MD's discussing quality vs quantity of life even for the 95 year old frail cancer riddled in high pain patient? Especially if that patients family wants "everything done" although the patient would rather be in comfort and live less months. I'm not sure a total hands off approach is great either.

I hate to think it, but until there is a vaccine or a sure cure for people struck with this virus, we will have a long time to face this problem.

Probably-but again- over 7500 people die in this country daily from all causes. We will learn to live with the risk and do what we can to mitigate it while enjoying life we can. Where that point is with this virus-isn't that what we should be asking? I am glad some are thinking of this.

 

[pedro47]

My questions are as follows
1. How many tourists travel to Sweden this time of the year and how many Swedes travel outside of their country to Europe, the Far East, Canada, Asia, or the United States?

2. How many airlines and cruise ships travels to Sweden between December and March ?

You can make numbers / figures tell a story positive or negative IMO.

 

[geekette]

We've suspected that there are certain "weight points" in your life that train your brain to keep that number of fat cells. Through childhood, teens and up until early twenties. And there is also some smallish evidence that once brain is trained for your specific number of fat cells your body will do whatever it can to maintain that.

I think this is me. I was a kid athlete and through no heroic methods, just staying active, I have been about the same weight all of my adult life. I think it matters that I was never pregnant.

 

[CPNY]

which ironically-puts these people at higher risk of dying from a random illness as well.
I am a RD and this has always been fascinating to me. We've suspected that there are certain "weight points" in your life that train your brain to keep that number of fat cells. Through childhood, teens and up until early twenties. And there is also some smallish evidence that once brain is trained for your specific number of fat cells your body will do whatever it can to maintain that. Like liposuction patients will regain the weight without a ton of hard work. I too hope we treat obesity better. Socioeconomic status also plays a HUGE role in nutrition/obesity. Obesity is an under treated disease for sure.

socioeconomic, physiology, psychology, genetics etc all play a role. Yes there is the metabolic adaptation and set point theory which is why we see patients who lose weight put it back on. Correct, patients who have liposuction lose x amount of fat cells and the bodies weight is lowered. there is a reason why liposuction patients gain weight in other places. You don’t regrow fat cells. The body needs to find new places to store the energy to get back to that set point. If you you never gained weight in your ankles and there are fat cells there, then that’s where the newly stored energy is going....... I think of this this way. You have a closet in your bedroom along with a dresser with 6 drawers where you store your clothes. If you remove 4 drawers full of clothes, you will eventually gain new clothes with new styles as time goes on. However you lost the 4 drawers to store the clothes so you have to overstuff the existing two drawers and closet.... so fat cells that were never overstuffed before are now swelling.

 

[Panina]

New Yorkers are dying as ambulance response times surge amid coronavirus

Citywide, the average ambulance response time to the most life-threatening cases — cardiac arrest and choking — rose from 7:37 in February to 9:24 last month. Responses to all emergenci…

nypost.com

 

[presley]

Some people are still under reacting. In Bakersfield, California this weekend, there was a big party that ended up with several people being shot. https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/12/us/bakersfield-california-shooting-stay-at-home/index.html

 

[JanT]

Leave it to Bakersfield, CA. And I can say that because I spent about half my youth there. It was a totally different town then but now? Oh my! Doesn't surprise me at all.

Some people are still under reacting. In Bakersfield, California this weekend, there was a big party that ended up with several people being shot. https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/12/us/bakersfield-california-shooting-stay-at-home/index.html