Article: Rethinking the Coronavirus Shutdown

[bluehende]

if you know the case numbers, publish them, nobody else has that knowledge.

My sister in law was tested and 3 days later the results came back positive. Her husband came down with the same symptoms, asked his doctor if he should be tested and he told him no, just assume that he is positive and act accordingly. That small sample indicates the actual cases are twice what has been reported. I'm assuming that it's higher. There's evidence that half infected don't have any symptoms.

I guess the cdc doesn't count as someone.

Here is the link already published.

Severe Outcomes Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19

COVID-19 can result in severe disease, including hospitalization, admission to an intensive care unit, and death, especially among older adults. Everyone can take actions, such as social distancing...

www.cdc.gov

from the report


Among 508 (12%) patients known to have been hospitalized, 9% were aged ≥85 years, start highlight36%end highlight were aged 65–84 years, 17% were aged 55–64 years, 18% were 45–54 years, and 20% were aged 20–44 years. Less than 1% of hospitalizations were among persons aged ≤19 years (Figure 2). The percentage of persons hospitalized increased with age, from 2%–3% among persons aged start highlight≤19end highlight years, to ≥31% among adults aged ≥85 years.

There are many more like this. If you do not believe the CDC then feel free to google it yourself. Of course if you just listen to the experts (ie Fauci) they have been getting this word out now for a week to dispel the misinformation that this disease does not affect young people. Their outcomes are better but they are still getting the disease with substantial health consequences.

 

[Roger830]

I’m not sure exactly how we are defining case numbers, but I’m assuming we are defining the number of actual reported cases. If so, this is a dashboard that is pulling data from the Johns Hopkins database. The JH dashboard for laptops/desktops is here:

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com

The mobile device version is here:

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

www.arcgis.com

This mobile device live dashboard, pulling from the same data source, I find to be most useful to easily look at to answer case related questions:

Coronavirus Dashboard

Live coronavirus dashboard tracker. See data, maps, social media trends, and learn about prevention measures.

ncov2019.live

Hope this helps...


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What good is that information? NYC is only testing those hospitalized. It's likely most people infected aren't tested.

 

[dioxide45]

I don’t have a chart just like these by US state, I do have a HEAT map for the US:

https://ig.ft.com/autograph/graphics/coronavirus-map-united-states.svg?frame=webS

It’s all available for free here:

Coronavirus tracker: the latest figures as countries fight the Covid-19 resurgence | Free to read

The FT analyses the scale of outbreaks and tracks the vaccine rollouts around the world

www.ft.com

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I found those HEAT maps are pretty useless. If you look at NY it looks like the entire state is covered, but the circles are just a guage of how many cases. The more cases, the bigger the circle. Over half of NY cases are in and around NY city.

My thought on the trajectory map is since many states are larger in population than many countries in the world (certainly in cases like Europe), it may be of interest to see the trajectory at a state level. Right now comparing USA to individual countries in Europe isn't necessarily accurate. Comparing all of Europe to all of the US is a better measure or comparing each country in Europe to each state in the US is a better comparison.

 

[Roger830]

I guess the cdc doesn't count as someone.

Here is the link already published.

Severe Outcomes Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19

COVID-19 can result in severe disease, including hospitalization, admission to an intensive care unit, and death, especially among older adults. Everyone can take actions, such as social distancing...

www.cdc.gov

Among 508 (12%) patients known to have been hospitalized,

I don't see the point in even considering 508 cases.
I'm not talking about this anymore, forever.

 

[bluehende]

I don't see the point in even considering 508 cases.
I'm not talking about this anymore, forever.

Again feel free to google it. I have seen the same numbers in many reports. I used the CDC one because of the irrefutable source. Find one that supports your premise or stop talking about it your choice.

 

[TravelTime]

Again feel free to google it. I have seen the same numbers in many reports. I used the CDC one because of the irrefutable source. Find one that supports your premise or stop talking about it your choice.

From what I have read, you are correct that COVID-19 afflicts both young and old. In fact, an infant just died in Illinois. Death rate is higher among the old but having an underlying health condition puts people at higher risk than just age alone. CDC reported that 8 out of 10 deaths are in people over age 65. I wonder if the younger people (under 65) who die from COVID-19 have underlying conditions that make them more susceptible?

COVID-19 and Your Health

Symptoms, testing, what to do if sick, daily activities, and more.

www.cdc.gov

 

[HitchHiker71]

I found those HEAT maps are pretty useless. If you look at NY it looks like the entire state is covered, but the circles are just a guage of how many cases. The more cases, the bigger the circle. Over half of NY cases are in and around NY city.

My thought on the trajectory map is since many states are larger in population than many countries in the world (certainly in cases like Europe), it may be of interest to see the trajectory at a state level. Right now comparing USA to individual countries in Europe isn't necessarily accurate. Comparing all of Europe to all of the US is a better measure or comparing each country in Europe to each state in the US is a better comparison.

Agreed I don’t like the HEAT map that much either except in so far as showing the level of activity across the country and where we should focus resources.

There’s another chart below that shows the most impacted sub national areas:

Granted not state based, but the worst impacted states are present on this chart at least.


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[goaliedave]

Canada is considerably larger than the U.S., in sheer land mass, but has about one tenth the human population, some 36,983,180 compared to the US at 376,031,546. The entire population of Canada is about the same as can be found in the state of California.

Correct so with 1/10 the population you would expect 1/10 the numbers of USA. Canada is obviously doing considerably better.

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[goaliedave]

Canada most likely has certain demographic and population density advantages that will benefit your country when compared to the US, but Canada is also a couple weeks behind the US in so far as the death rates are concerned along the x axis so you are simply earlier in the curve than the US:

Canada is currently tracking along the exact same trajectory as the U.K.:

I pray your country can blunt the curve just like everyone else - but the data tells the story - Canada is about a week behind the U.K. at present. Your healthcare system will most likely also be overwhelmed by the coronavirus within the next ten days. The coronavirus doesn’t discriminate between multi-payer vs single payer healthcare systems - just ask Italy - which has a single payer system, along with most of the EU countries.

The only countries that have done well to date are Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Vietnam (Japan appears to be doing well but the consensus is that they have a data reporting problem). They didn’t do well because of superior healthcare systems - they did well because they adopted a combination of aggressive widespread testing, social distancing, quarantining and contact tracing before the outbreaks took hold.

I pray whatever Canada is doing produces the results that we see from South Korea - blunting the curve and saving many lives in the process.


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Amen, thanks for prayers! Your interpretations are contrary to Canadian expert interpretations so we will only know at the end. The only thing we know is that USA will have the highest deaths per population in the end, and there will be a lot of finger pointing and conspiracy theories.

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[Panina]

Correct so with 1/10 the population you would expect 1/10 the numbers of USA. Canada is obviously doing considerably better.

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Time will tell. Todays numbers are not tomorrows, they are behind us.

 

[goaliedave]

Time will tell. Todays numbers are tomorrows, they are behind us.

This century's movement to "evidence-based" decision making has certainly left alot of people behind.

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[HitchHiker71]

What good is that information? NYC is only testing those hospitalized. It's likely most people infected aren't tested.

Are you kidding? Data is important. Tracking actual case reported data is critical - as it is the actuals that are used as part of algorithmic modeling calculations that the CDC publishes to provide ranges for estimated infections that you are asking about.

You do realize that almost ALL published infectious disease data is not actual data yes? It’s based upon actual data then reverse engineered to estimate the number of infections based upon other data points such as R-naught and transmission rates just to name two. Even in countries that have very aggressive testing protocols - like South Korea - they have only tested one out of every 150 people on average. We are around one for every 900 here in the US at present - and ramping up from there.


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[Chrispee]

Correct so with 1/10 the population you would expect 1/10 the numbers of USA. Canada is obviously doing considerably better.

I think that Karen G's point was Canada has less population density which should equate to lower transmission rates.

 

[Ken555]

I think that Karen G's point was Canada has less population density which should equate to lower transmission rates.

That's only accurate if Canadians are equally distant from each other. As has already been said, most Canadians live along their southern border. Think of Vancouver and Toronto density, just as two examples. Still, it does appear Vancouver was able to catch it sufficiently early to minimize exposure and mimic the South Korea results...let's hope. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/can...-in-its-battle-against-covid-19-bc-gets-some/

 

[Chrispee]

That's only accurate if Canadians are equally distant from each other. As has already been said, most Canadians live along their southern border. Think of Vancouver and Toronto density, just as two examples. Still, it does appear Vancouver was able to catch it sufficiently early to minimize exposure and mimic the South Korea results...let's hope. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/can...-in-its-battle-against-covid-19-bc-gets-some/

Right that does make sense thanks. I'm actually surprised that Vancouver has fared as well as it has thus far given the demographics.

 

[dioxide45]

That's only accurate if Canadians are equally distant from each other. As has already been said, most Canadians live along their southern border. Think of Vancouver and Toronto density, just as two examples. Still, it does appear Vancouver was able to catch it sufficiently early to minimize exposure and mimic the South Korea results...let's hope. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/can...-in-its-battle-against-covid-19-bc-gets-some/

The population density of Toronto and Vancouver are about 10,000 per square mile. In New York City it is 24,000 per square mile.

 

[Ken555]

The population density of Toronto and Vancouver are about 10,000 per square mile. In New York City it is 24,000 per square mile.

I did not say they were equal. In fact, I did not mention NYC at all.

Population density is relative. But do we really know a safe amount?

 

[geekette]

Tracking Covid-19 cases in the US

Track the spread of coronavirus in the United States with maps and updates on cases and deaths.

www.cnn.com

If you scroll down, you can hover over the various chart lines to see which state is which.

 

[Big Matt]

Just to put a little more context in terms of Canada, US, and China in terms of size:
Canada - 9.98 square km
United States - 9.83 square km
China - 9.60 square km

We are splitting hairs on the size of the three. I think we all know which one has the most people and the least. Guess which one will have the fewest cases and deaths? Guess which country's people travel the least per capita?

 

[goaliedave]

I think that Karen G's point was Canada has less population density which should equate to lower transmission rates.

Wrong... as another posted above, everyone in Canada lives on the USA border, same density as USA neighbours.

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[goaliedave]

That's only accurate if Canadians are equally distant from each other. As has already been said, most Canadians live along their southern border. Think of Vancouver and Toronto density, just as two examples. Still, it does appear Vancouver was able to catch it sufficiently early to minimize exposure and mimic the South Korea results...let's hope. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/can...-in-its-battle-against-covid-19-bc-gets-some/

I'm from Ottawa but staying in BC until this is over. As you said, doing a great job here. Poor Quebec, had their school spring break early so lots of work to do.

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