Are our lives forever changed due to Coronoavirus?

[RX8]

I am sitting in my basement continuing to work remotely (very lucky to be working and getting a paycheck). My boys (10 and 14) are currently working on their school work and I am lucky that they have a pretty defined daily schedule of work provided by their respective schools. Our family used to eat out about once per week. Now, I can't even remember what the last restaurant was that we ate. We have cabin fever but have been able to take walks around the neighborhood, keeping safe distance from everyone we pass.

I am thinking to myself about how this moment in time is going to change our lives forever going forward. Everyone has had worries about climate change, fossil fuels being exhausted and animal extinctions, among many others concerns. For me though, seeing how quickly we were hit with the Coronavirus and the impact felt across the globe, this is the first time that I am truly scared for my boys and the future that they are going to be living through.

 

[Luanne]

Too early to tell, but my vote is Yes.

 

[goaliedave]

Only for unselfish people.

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[TravelTime]

Yes, I think our lives will be changed forever.

 

[VegasBella]

I'm not sure if our lives are forever changed. Obviously only time will tell.

My mother-in-law passed away just before our country had accepted the fact that Coronavirus was in the 'community spreading' mode and they were still chasing ghosts thinking it was only people who who had direct connection to China. Her symptoms were very COVID-19 and we suspect it is possible that was what did her in. She was very weak from multiple conditions already so it wasn't a surprise to anyone when she got pneumonia that she couldn't survive it. But still...

So in a way, our lives are already changed. I'm hoping we don't lose another other loved ones.

I felt like Katrina or 911 might change everyone forever. But it doesn't seem like many lessons were learned. This is more global so maybe it will have a longer lasting effect. I don't know.

 

[Passepartout]

Not yet. Too soon to tell. For some, though, it has ended their lives forever and that's a long time. Those whose lives are taken early, will have an extreme and unknown effect. Impossible to know how their lives would have influenced others, or what they might have accomplished had this virus not taken them.

Stay in, wash often. Be well. Be kind to each other.

Jim

 

[Panina]

For many of us, yes. For others they will just go back to what they were doing before and not think about it.

 

[bluehende]

There will certainly be changes. At this point I think they will be minor as in humans will retain some of these social distancing habits. Personal space will be defined somewhat differently. My guess is there will be a lot of little differences that really won't matter in our daily lives. I reserve the right to change my guess if science finds this virus and disease a hard problem to solve.

 

[WalnutBaron]

I posted in another thread today an article from the Wall Street Journal indicating that the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank is projecting that unemployment in the USA as a result of the virus will hit more than 32%. If that's even close to being accurate, the economic downturn we face is like something we have not seen in our lifetimes unless you happen to be in your 80's and lived through the Great Depression. By comparison, the Great Recession of 2007-09 saw peak unemployment rates of 10%.

So yes--our lives have changed and the magnitude and rapidity of change that we can expect to see over the next few years is hard to imagine. Some industries will change fundamentally. I do not think the cruise industry, for example, will ever be the same. The auto industry is going to go through a huge shakeout as people get used to working from home and corporations get used to telecommuting, which will mean a lot less driving and fewer cars on the highways. And because people will be home more, the restaurant industry is going to contract significantly but companies like HelloFresh and BlueApron will be huge beneficiaries.

Another impact of telecommuting will be a lot less business travel. Companies will realize they can get things done via virtual meetings for a fraction of the cost of business travel, resulting in major contraction of the airline and hotel industries.

The U.S. banking industry is in much better shape than it was in 2008, but there will be bank failures and consolidation, particularly for banks whose credit portfolio was not particularly strong to begin with because they were making risky loans coming into all of this.

We are in the very early stages of a life-altering economic contraction the likes of which nearly all of us have neither seen nor experienced before. We will get through it, we will learn from it, we will learn to appreciate many things we once took for granted, and we will either become embittered or more grateful depending on our outlook and belief system. Regardless, the clear answer is yes: there will always be a bright line of demarcation between February 2020 and the years preceding it and March 2020 and the years following.

 

[pedro47]

Yes., our lives we changes forever IMO.
Liked 9/11/2001.

 

[missyrcrews]

On a much lighter note, I think we in the snowier parts of the US can kiss the Snow Day goodbye! We've shown that we can do distance learning, and do it pretty well when we have to. No more early morning phone calls from the superintendent!

 

[jehb2]

My kids met with all their classes via zoom today. The school district has been using google classroom for the past many years so they already have a lot in place

 

[pedro47]

missycrews, right now I would to see some snow.

 

[MrockStar]

I am sitting in my basement continuing to work remotely (very lucky to be working and getting a paycheck). My boys (10 and 14) are currently working on their school work and I am lucky that they have a pretty defined daily schedule of work provided by their respective schools. Our family used to eat out about once per week. Now, I can't even remember what the last restaurant was that we ate. We have cabin fever but have been able to take walks around the neighborhood, keeping safe distance from everyone we pass.

I am thinking to myself about how this moment in time is going to change our lives forever going forward. Everyone has had worries about climate change, fossil fuels being exhausted and animal extinctions, among many others concerns. For me though, seeing how quickly we were hit with the Coronavirus and the impact felt across the globe, this is the first time that I am truly scared for my boys and the future that they are going to be living through.

Dont worry, Most of us all lived through H1N1 Swine flue 2009 for 15 months and the world didnt shut down, most hospitals where full but helped everyone. Schools stayed open and most everything return to normal. This too will pass and like 911 some things will change ( new normal) But remember God is ultimately in charge and he love/cares about all of us, and Americans are very resourceful hard working and care about their neighbors/friends and families. So be glad you live in the greatest country on earth with the greatest most advance healthcare system on the planet and with the greatest most advanced volunteer military in the in the free world. You will be fine

 

[MrockStar]

For many of us, yes. For others they will just go back to what they were doing before and not think about it.

Yes, unfortunately we humans are doomed to repeat history most of the time. :-/

 

[Luanne]

Dont worry, Most of us all lived through H1N1 Swine flue 2009 for 15 months and the world didnt shut down, most hospitals where full but helped everyone. Schools stayed open and most everything return to normal. This too will pass and like 911 some things will change ( new normal) But remember God is ultimately in charge and he love/cares about all of us, and Americans are very resourceful hard working and care about their neighbors/friends and families. So be glad you live in the greatest country on earth with the greatest most advance healthcare system on the planet and with the greatest most advanced volunteer military in the in the free world. You will be fine

I certainly don't remember the quick spread, and shutdowns, due to H1N1. I was working back then and the ONLY change I made was that I got a flu shot that year for the first time.

 

[Ski-Dad]

Yes - this will change us the same as 9/11 did but more likely similiar to 1929.

 

[Chrispee]

Dont worry, Most of us all lived through H1N1 Swine flue 2009 for 15 months and the world didnt shut down, most hospitals where full but helped everyone. Schools stayed open and most everything return to normal. This too will pass and like 911 some things will change ( new normal) But remember God is ultimately in charge and he love/cares about all of us, and Americans are very resourceful hard working and care about their neighbors/friends and families. So be glad you live in the greatest country on earth with the greatest most advance healthcare system on the planet and with the greatest most advanced volunteer military in the in the free world. You will be fine

Although I respectfully disagree with every single point in your post (except that we will return to a new normal eventually) I'd like to focus on your comparisons to H1N1, Swine Flu, and 911. The economic and societal fallout from Covid-19 will be felt in a much greater way, and many people will demand radical structural changes to the economy and healthcare systems.

 

[TravelTime]

Dont worry, Most of us all lived through H1N1 Swine flue 2009 for 15 months and the world didnt shut down, most hospitals where full but helped everyone. Schools stayed open and most everything return to normal. This too will pass and like 911 some things will change ( new normal) But remember God is ultimately in charge and he love/cares about all of us, and Americans are very resourceful hard working and care about their neighbors/friends and families. So be glad you live in the greatest country on earth with the greatest most advance healthcare system on the planet and with the greatest most advanced volunteer military in the in the free world. You will be fine

I do not even remember the H1N1 swine flu epidemic. It was handled very differently. There was no panic. The country did not shut down. We still went about our daily life normally. I remember 9/11 and that caused a mental shift and anxiety about the possibility of another attack. This feels worse than 9/11 because the virus is shutting everything down. 9/11 was geographically restricted to NYC. The rest of us watched it on TV but we were not directly impacted like with this. I think this will pass but it will take time until the virus is controlled through a vaccine and/or enough people get it and it wipes itself out. Or if we find out the mortality rate is not as high as being reported now. if we learn this is more like a flu, then people will calm down and be able to go back to work and school and resume daily life. Until something changes for the positive, people will be panicking about it.

 

[Luanne]

I do not even remember the H1N1 swine flu epidemic. It was handled very differently. There was no panic. The country did not shut down. We still went about our daily life normally. I remember 9/11 and that caused a mental shift and anxiety about the possibility of another attack. This feels worse than 9/11 because the virus is shutting everything down. 9/11 was geographically restricted to NYC. The rest of us watched it on TV but we were not directly impacted like with this. I think this will pass but it will take time until the virus is controlled through a vaccine and/or enough people get it and it wipes itself out. Or if we find out the mortality rate is not as high as being reported now. if we learn this is more like a flu, then people will calm down and be able to go back to work and school and resume daily life. Until something changes for the positive, people will be panicking about it.

The biggest lasting impact to us after 9/11 was the TSA.

 

[billymach4]

Don't even question this subject. This is a tectonic event that is being etched into the annals of human history as we sit here thinking about this!

 

[goaliedave]

I posted in another thread today an article from the Wall Street Journal indicating that the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank is projecting that unemployment in the USA as a result of the virus will hit more than 32%. If that's even close to being accurate, the economic downturn we face is like something we have not seen in our lifetimes unless you happen to be in your 80's and lived through the Great Depression. By comparison, the Great Recession of 2007-09 saw peak unemployment rates of 10%.

So yes--our lives have changed and the magnitude and rapidity of change that we can expect to see over the next few years is hard to imagine. Some industries will change fundamentally. I do not think the cruise industry, for example, will ever be the same. The auto industry is going to go through a huge shakeout as people get used to working from home and corporations get used to telecommuting, which will mean a lot less driving and fewer cars on the highways. And because people will be home more, the restaurant industry is going to contract significantly but companies like HelloFresh and BlueApron will be huge beneficiaries.

Another impact of telecommuting will be a lot less business travel. Companies will realize they can get things done via virtual meetings for a fraction of the cost of business travel, resulting in major contraction of the airline and hotel industries.

The U.S. banking industry is in much better shape than it was in 2008, but there will be bank failures and consolidation, particularly for banks whose credit portfolio was not particularly strong to begin with because they were making risky loans coming into all of this.

We are in the very early stages of a life-altering economic contraction the likes of which nearly all of us have neither seen nor experienced before. We will get through it, we will learn from it, we will learn to appreciate many things we once took for granted, and we will either become embittered or more grateful depending on our outlook and belief system. Regardless, the clear answer is yes: there will always be a bright line of demarcation between February 2020 and the years preceding it and March 2020 and the years following.

Yes but cheer for full churches and everybody spending to help the economy by Easter! Yippee!

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[heathpack]

I posted in another thread today an article from the Wall Street Journal indicating that the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank is projecting that unemployment in the USA as a result of the virus will hit more than 32%. If that's even close to being accurate, the economic downturn we face is like something we have not seen in our lifetimes unless you happen to be in your 80's and lived through the Great Depression. By comparison, the Great Recession of 2007-09 saw peak unemployment rates of 10%.

So yes--our lives have changed and the magnitude and rapidity of change that we can expect to see over the next few years is hard to imagine. Some industries will change fundamentally. I do not think the cruise industry, for example, will ever be the same. The auto industry is going to go through a huge shakeout as people get used to working from home and corporations get used to telecommuting, which will mean a lot less driving and fewer cars on the highways. And because people will be home more, the restaurant industry is going to contract significantly but companies like HelloFresh and BlueApron will be huge beneficiaries.

Another impact of telecommuting will be a lot less business travel. Companies will realize they can get things done via virtual meetings for a fraction of the cost of business travel, resulting in major contraction of the airline and hotel industries.

The U.S. banking industry is in much better shape than it was in 2008, but there will be bank failures and consolidation, particularly for banks whose credit portfolio was not particularly strong to begin with because they were making risky loans coming into all of this.

We are in the very early stages of a life-altering economic contraction the likes of which nearly all of us have neither seen nor experienced before. We will get through it, we will learn from it, we will learn to appreciate many things we once took for granted, and we will either become embittered or more grateful depending on our outlook and belief system. Regardless, the clear answer is yes: there will always be a bright line of demarcation between February 2020 and the years preceding it and March 2020 and the years following.

Did this article imply a 36% long term unemployment? Because I can see that number being that high transiently during peak lockdown but returning to a much lower (but still high) unemployment number afterward. Many/most businesses would reopen when the lockdown is over, no?

Did they explain where the job losses are expected to be?

 

[WalnutBaron]

Did this article imply a 36% long term unemployment? Because I can see that number being that high transiently during peak lockdown but returning to a much lower (but still high) unemployment number afterward. Many/most businesses would reopen when the lockdown is over, no?

Did they explain where the job losses are expected to be?

No, the article did not go into specific detail about which sectors of the economy will be most affected. The sectors I mentioned in my post are my own speculation. But the article did make the point that the damage to the economy is so broad and deep that this is unlikely to be a V-shaped recovery. Why? Because so many are being displaced by this economic shutdown. Because consumption patterns are changing at light speed. Because, when the lockdown ends, consumers' disposable income will be lower, if they have an income at all. Today, for example, on CNBC, the hosts and Jim Cramer were saying this virus could result in the takedown of Ford Motor Company because people will be doing less driving, more telecommuting, and the weaker auto companies who are less-positioned with driverless and electric cars will be the first casualties.

Another sector that is not being talked about but which has huge implications for the world economy (which will, of course, redound to the U.S. economy) is the complete collapse of the oil market. The oil industry is so central to so many economies internationally--and has become increasingly important domestically as we have recently become a net exporter of oil--that the ripple effects of the oil collapse cannot really be understood at this early stage, especially in places like Texas, Oklahoma, Wyoming, North Dakota, and even places like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and western New York.

Yes, many/most businesses will reopen when the lockdown has passed. But the longer the lockdown lasts, the more widespread will be the damage. Already, casualties are mounting. I talked to the owner yesterday of 14 Subway stores in our area. She told me their business is down 80% (!) over the past thirty days. They have already closed--not mothballed, but closed--two of their stores. She told me if the lockdown lasts for another month, they will close six more. She has asked their landlords for rent relief. Some have responded positively. Those who have not are the locations where the closures will likely take place sooner than later. The ripple effects of this kind of massive shutdown of huge swaths of the economy will have a long tail, and the tail gets longer the longer the shutdown is in effect.

 

[heathpack]

No, the article did not go into specific detail about which sectors of the economy will be most affected. The sectors I mentioned in my post are my own speculation. But the article did make the point that the damage to the economy is so broad and deep that this is unlikely to be a V-shaped recovery. Why? Because so many are being displaced by this economic shutdown. Because consumption patterns are changing at light speed. Because, when the lockdown ends, consumers' disposable income will be lower, if they have an income at all. Today, for example, on CNBC, the hosts and Jim Cramer were saying this virus could result in the takedown of Ford Motor Company because people will be doing less driving, more telecommuting, and the weaker auto companies who are less-positioned with driverless and electric cars will be the first casualties.

Another sector that is not being talked about but which has huge implications for the world economy (which will, of course, redound to the U.S. economy) is the complete collapse of the oil market. The oil industry is so central to so many economies internationally--and has become increasingly important domestically as we have recently become a net exporter of oil--that the ripple effects of the oil collapse cannot really be understood at this early stage, especially in places like Texas, Oklahoma, Wyoming, North Dakota, and even places like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and western New York.

Yes, many/most businesses will reopen when the lockdown has passed. But the longer the lockdown lasts, the more widespread will be the damage. Already, casualties are mounting. I talked to the owner yesterday of 14 Subway stores in our area. She told me their business is down 80% (!) over the past thirty days. They have already closed--not mothballed, but closed--two of their stores. She told me if the lockdown lasts for another month, they will close six more. She has asked their landlords for rent relief. Some have responded positively. Those who have not are the locations where the closures will likely take place sooner than later. The ripple effects of this kind of massive shutdown of huge swaths of the economy will have a long tail, and the tail gets longer the longer the shutdown is in effect.

Interesting.

The crucial thing, then, is getting to the point of widespread testing. Both PCR testing, which tells you if a person is currently infected, and serologic testing, which tells you if a person is previously infected and therefore likely immune. It would be a massive public health effort and we’d be way better off now if all of that infrastructure was in place at the outset (like in S Korea).

But if you know who has it, who is immune and who is still vulnerable, you start to be open to reopen society with targeted quarantines of individuals.