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Aeroplan: should I book now or when the new program is launched?

DannyTS

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We are planning a trip to Hawaii for the next spring break. There are good flights available for 45,000 Aeroplan miles pp. Should we book now or after the new program is lunched in November? I am afraid there might be some devaluation especially for Hawaii and that the good flights will cost more points.

What keeps us from booking right away is because we have credits with other companies so we may want to use them first (WJ good for 24 months) and because we are not 100% we are going.
 
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jabberwocky

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We are planning a trip to Hawaii for the next spring break. There are good flights available for 45,000 Aeroplan miles pp. Should we book now or after the new program is lunched in November? I am afraid there might be some devaluation especially for Hawaii and that the good flights will cost more points.

What keeps us from booking right away is because we have credits with other companies so we may want to use them first (WJ good for 24 months) and because we are not 100% we are going.
Are those fixed mileage rewards or the market fare rewards? Do you have SE status with AC?
 

DannyTS

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jabberwocky

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It's a tough call. I think with the dynamic pricing the average cost will go up for those of us who travel at peak times. - however, with covid I think there might be a sweet spot where there isn't much demand, so the point cost may be lower (that said - cash costs to Hawaii are crazy cheap right now for us - under $600pp).

I'm largely in the same boat as you. I have plenty of Aeroplan miles, but I also had $3500 in my WestJet travel bank that I need to use up. I've used around $2200 for our flights to Palm Springs over Christmas (about $366 all taxes included with preferred seats). Aeroplan cost for that would have been 150,000 miles - so not a good value.

Some thoughts:

- In the current reward chart, Hawaii is 45,000 miles. The new chart indicates it would be 35,000-50,000 miles.
- There are no carrier surcharges on AC in the new program. If you would have any currently - it might be worth waiting as these can add up.

As a side note - Mexico is clearly a better value for those in Eastern Canada under this new system. Currently 40k/ticket vs. 25k-35k max under the new system. Tickets for Cancun were very expensive for us, so I used points for that. If there is availability under the new system I'll rebook if it is cheaper.

Note: edited to correct error - new chart Is one way vs round trip on existing charts.
 
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DannyTS

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It's a tough call. I think with the dynamic pricing the average cost will go up for those of us who travel at peak times. - however, with covid I think there might be a sweet spot where there isn't much demand, so the point cost may be lower (that said - cash costs to Hawaii are crazy cheap right now for us - under $600pp).

I'm largely in the same boat as you. I have plenty of Aeroplan miles, but I also had $3500 in my WestJet travel bank that I need to use up. I've used around $2200 for our flights to Palm Springs over Christmas (about $366 all taxes included with preferred seats). Aeroplan cost for that would have been 150,000 miles - so not a good value.

Some thoughts:

- In the current reward chart, Hawaii is 45,000 miles. Is Hawaii going to be put into the North American Zone or the Pacific Zone? The new chart isn't clear on this. If it is in the North American Zone it is a no-brainer to wait as it maxes out at 25,000. Someone at Flyertalk might know where Hawaii falls.
- There are no carrier surcharges on AC in the new program. If you would have any currently - it might be worth waiting as these can add up.

As a side note - Mexico is clearly a better value under this new system - I will probably cancel and rebook my March spring break flights. Currently 40k/ticket vs. 25k max under the new system (cancelation is free for SE). Tickets for Cancun were very expensive for us, so I used points for that. If there is availability under the new system I'll rebook.
If I understand the new chart correctly (thank you for posting it) , the number of points is for one way. According to this site, Hawaii is part of North America on their division

.
 
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jabberwocky

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You’re right. I should have looked closer. The other chart has always been round trip.

In this case, you’re likely to get a better deal now. Of course you could always try booking on the 7th of November and then see if the points requirement is lower on the 8th. You can cancel for free within 24 hours I believe even without SE status.

I’ll edit my post so I don’t confuse anyone.
 

DannyTS

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You’re right. I should have looked closer. The other chart has always been round trip.

In this case, you’re likely to get a better deal now. Of course you could always try booking on the 7th of November and then see if the points requirement is lower on the 8th. You can cancel for free within 24 hours I believe even without SE status.

I’ll edit my post so I don’t confuse anyone.
I may end up booking. The flights I found through Aeroplan are very good and the risk of not getting exactly what I want may outweigh the potential (and completely unclear) [points saving
 
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