Advice needed on flight to Hawaii

[Aptman]

I have a timeshare booked at Hilton Hawaiian Village (Oahu) for April 4-11 (I could probably make it April 3-11, or 2-10 if necessary), but I am having the worst luck at finding a reasonable airfare (I live in Los Angeles)

The lowest price I've seen is about $780 on numerous airlines, although it's gone down as low as $680 if I get a terrible flight back from Hawaii at 7:15 AM on Friday the 10th. I've never traveled there at this time of year before, and I guess Spring Break is a popular time there (more popular than summer, though?), but does anyone have any advice?

I was hoping to pay in the range of $500 per person, the extra $300 saved makes a huge difference because there are 4 of us traveling. Do people think that airfares will come down between now and then? I'm willing to let the reservation go, if necessary, but the kids would just love going, as would I.

I've checked all of the regular sites for fares, and these are the best I've come up with. I recognize traveling Saturday to Saturday is not optimal for Hawaii fares, but still, this seems surprising.

Any thoughts, anyone? Wait? Give up? Book for the $700 and change I'm seeing now?

 

[LisaRex]

Crude is plummeting. You have plenty of time.

 

[DeniseM]

April 4 - 11 is Easter week - that is a very popular time to go to Hawaii and airfares are going to reflect that.

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

April 4 - 11 is Easter week - that is a very popular time to go to Hawaii and airfares are going to reflect that.

Yep. With school vacations Easter week is always premium priced.

 

[rickandcindy23]

Check various websites every day. I have seen $664 to Kauai from Denver on occasion. I am also watching for airfare in April of 2009, though we need the last two weeks. Good luck to you.

 

[dougp26364]

Crude is plummeting. You have plenty of time.

But airlines buy in bulk in advance. The price of oil may be plummeting but it airlines attemtped to hedge at the higher prices, they very well may be stuck paying yesterday's prices. Airlines haven't been very good at guessing the oil commodity lately.

 

[CATBinCO]

I recommend putting a FareWatcher Alert on Travelocity and let them do the work for you. You choose the route (i.e. LAX to HNL) and the price (i.e. email me when the price drops below $600). And then wait. This is how we got our airline tickets two years ago, Denver to HNL, round trip for $342/person.

I was looking for July 06 fares. I put the alert on Travelocity in October 05. I would keep getting emails from them, but summer dates were never available. Finally in February I got an email on a Sunday morning. The entire summer was wide open. I was hesitant, but booked it. Later that afternoon I went back to look - summer was sold out for that fare. It goes that fast.

I bet if you do the alert now, you might get that magical Sunday morning email sometime in December!

 

[rockedge]

Airfare

Another option is to put Yapta on your computer and put in the flights you would like to have and let yapta notify you if they come into a price range you are willing to pay. They alert you quickly if price drops below your price. I have seen where an airfare only lasts a few hours so this would give you quick notice.

 

[Icarus]

But airlines buy in bulk in advance. The price of oil may be plummeting but it airlines attemtped to hedge at the higher prices, they very well may be stuck paying yesterday's prices. Airlines haven't been very good at guessing the oil commodity lately.

They buy future contracts, which basically gives them a right to buy the commodity in the future at a given price. If they are out of the money (the future price is higher than the actual price when the contract expires), they will just expire without being executed.

The airlines should be purchasing additional future contracts as the price of oil continues to drop, which gives them a hedge against future price increases during the term of the contracts. The cost of the original fuel hedges are just a cost of doing business. They don't pay that price/barrel unless they execute the final contract and take delivery.

A fuel hedge (contract) at the current price or expected price doesn't cost very much. You can look them up somewhere to see what they actually cost on the current market. Since they are traded on the commodities exchanges, the prices fluctuate with each trade, just like stocks and each trade is reported and logged.

-David

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

A fuel hedge (contract) at the current price or expected price doesn't cost very much. You can look them up somewhere to see what they actually cost on the current market. Since they are traded on the commodities exchanges, the prices fluctuate with each trade, just like stocks and each trade is reported and logged.

-David

Also, under accounting rules (probably a Sarbanes-Oxley requirement) they need to mark the contracts each fiscal quarter and report gains/losses in their 10-Q reports. That can greatly affect quarterly financial results. Many airlines are going to report larger losses in the current quarter because falling oil prices have reduced the value of their hedging contracts. Alaska Airlines, for example, just reported a quarterly loss even though their operating income was positive. The mark-to-market, IMHO, is a bit of fuzzy accounting because even though it's a charge against earnings there isn't any cash going out the door because of the markdown.

 

[debraxh]

Is it possible to change your dates, perhaps to Feb? Hawaiian has LAX-HNL (one way) for $218.

Good luck!

 

[dougp26364]

They buy future contracts, which basically gives them a right to buy the commodity in the future at a given price. If they are out of the money (the future price is higher than the actual price when the contract expires), they will just expire without being executed.

The airlines should be purchasing additional future contracts as the price of oil continues to drop, which gives them a hedge against future price increases during the term of the contracts. The cost of the original fuel hedges are just a cost of doing business. They don't pay that price/barrel unless they execute the final contract and take delivery.

A fuel hedge (contract) at the current price or expected price doesn't cost very much. You can look them up somewhere to see what they actually cost on the current market. Since they are traded on the commodities exchanges, the prices fluctuate with each trade, just like stocks and each trade is reported and logged.

-David

Also, under accounting rules (probably a Sarbanes-Oxley requirement) they need to mark the contracts each fiscal quarter and report gains/losses in their 10-Q reports. That can greatly affect quarterly financial results. Many airlines are going to report larger losses in the current quarter because falling oil prices have reduced the value of their hedging contracts. Alaska Airlines, for example, just reported a quarterly loss even though their operating income was positive. The mark-to-market, IMHO, is a bit of fuzzy accounting because even though it's a charge against earnings there isn't any cash going out the door because of the markdown.

Interesting to know how this is done and the fuzzy math behind it. I had read an article recently about how United screwed up and locked in fuel prices at the highest possible rate, thus costing them a lot of money. Apparently they hedged at the higher price, prices went down and on paper they were showing a loss that only existed on paper.

 

[LisaRex]

When I booked for my travel in July '08, the price started at $1100 from Cincinnati and never did drop. But that was when gasoline prices were high. Paying $700 to fly from LAX seems like a really steep price, even for a holiday week. In any event, I doubt they'll go higher, which buys you time.

FYI, I filled up today for $2.18/gallon.

 

[linsj]

I don't know about other airlines, but with United you can get a refund of the difference when/if the price drops. You have to watch fares and request it though. If you book online and request the refund that way, it goes back on your credit card. If you've upgraded and want to preserve the upgrade, you have to call in and then you get a voucher. I've repriced three itineraries since August and got enough money back to pay for my February trip to Hawaii, which I booked recently even though the price is high. I'm hoping to get a voucher from that ticket as well.