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according to a Stanford professor: Median Infection Fatality Rate Of COVID-19 For Those Under-70 Is Just 0.04%

TravelTime

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This looks long and detailed. Can you summarize it?
 

Ken555

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This looks long and detailed. Can you summarize it?

Can’t even make it to page 2, eh?

ABSTRACT

Objective To estimate the infection fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from data of seroprevalence studies.
Methods Population studies with sample size of at least 500 and published as peer-reviewed papers or preprints as of June 7, 2020 were retrieved from PubMed, preprint servers, and communications with experts. Studies on blood donors were included, but studies on healthcare workers were excluded. The studies were assessed for design features and seroprevalence estimates. Infection fatality rate was estimated from each study dividing the number of COVID-19 deaths at a relevant time point by the number of estimated people infected in each relevant region. Correction was also attempted accounting for the types of antibodies assessed.

Results 23 studies were identified with usable data to enter into calculations. Seroprevalence estimates ranged from 0.1% to 47%. Infection fatality rates ranged from 0.02% to 0.86% (median 0.26%) and corrected values ranged from 0.02% to 0.78% (median 0.25%). Among people <70 years old, infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 0.26% with median of 0.05% (corrected, 0.00-0.23% with median of 0.04%). Most studies were done in pandemic epicenters and the few studies done in locations with more modest death burden also suggested lower infection fatality rates.

Conclusions The infection fatality rate of COVID-19 can vary substantially across different locations and this may reflect differences in population age structure and case-mix of infected and deceased patients as well as multiple other factors. Estimates of infection fatality rates inferred from seroprevalence studies tend to be much lower than original speculations made in the early days of the pandemic.


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TravelTime

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Can’t even make it to page 2, eh?




Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Okay, I read the summary. This is very promising. If this is true, then Covid should go away if everyone takes precautions recommended by the CDC. We could be done with Covid in no time.
 

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Ok when I saw the publication I admit I was ready for the "spin" of "this is fake pandemic" stuff. But actually it is fact based and what I seem to find when I look stuff up anyway. The media does a good job of screaming "Only 22% of ICU beds available" without telling you ICU's nearly always run near capacity anyway and the number of actual covid cases in those beds isn't spiking. If you go to local papers/news you will find the hospital officials with those quotes on how they are FINE but the headline misleads to thinking otherwise.
"It also explains why so many people in the hospital are now being pegged as COVID-19 patients when they are in the hospital for other reasons. Prior to universal testing, anyone who came in for a car accident, heart attack, kidney stone, or broken bone was not tested. Now all those younger, asymptomatic, or mildly symptomatic cases are being detected through the natural interaction with the health care system that is running normally again. On top of that, there are now many more people in the hospitals for all reasons, now that elective procedures have continued, people are no longer scared away from ERs, and there is likely even an increase in hospitalizations to make up for the lost care during the virus peak in April."

THIS sums it up-and leading to the "spike" and misleading hospital capacity headlines. One thing I didn't see mentioned but that the local news will mention is the hospitals are also better prepared for a surge now than in April. With medicare there is also a financial incentive to test and code for Covid+ patients too.
 

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"The media does a good job of screaming ___________ without telling you ___________________. "

That pretty much nails it.


wow, so this coronavirus thing is just a big media hype ?

I don't have to wear a mask when I'm at Disney World ?


THAT'S GREAT NEWS !!!

https://www.cbsnews.com/video/florida-coronavirus-cases-soar-as-governor-refuses-to-alter-reopening/
 

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Ok when I saw the publication I admit I was ready for the "spin" of "this is fake pandemic" stuff. But actually it is fact based and what I seem to find when I look stuff up anyway. The media does a good job of screaming "Only 22% of ICU beds available" without telling you ICU's nearly always run near capacity anyway and the number of actual covid cases in those beds isn't spiking. If you go to local papers/news you will find the hospital officials with those quotes on how they are FINE but the headline misleads to thinking otherwise.
"It also explains why so many people in the hospital are now being pegged as COVID-19 patients when they are in the hospital for other reasons. Prior to universal testing, anyone who came in for a car accident, heart attack, kidney stone, or broken bone was not tested. Now all those younger, asymptomatic, or mildly symptomatic cases are being detected through the natural interaction with the health care system that is running normally again. On top of that, there are now many more people in the hospitals for all reasons, now that elective procedures have continued, people are no longer scared away from ERs, and there is likely even an increase in hospitalizations to make up for the lost care during the virus peak in April."

THIS sums it up-and leading to the "spike" and misleading hospital capacity headlines. One thing I didn't see mentioned but that the local news will mention is the hospitals are also better prepared for a surge now than in April. With medicare there is also a financial incentive to test and code for Covid+ patients too.
Yes. One simple statistic that people are failing to look at in some the scary headlines is the median age of C19 positives in FL. It has dropped considerably. A VERY good sign. C19 might be spreading faster now in certain areas but in populations that are not particularly vulnerable to getting very sick, much less die. Reminder: there have been ZERO deaths under 18 in FL. Since late May Florida has no overall decline in ICU / general hospital bed capacity. Positive tests have spiked, nothing else.
 

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Monykalyn

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wow, so this coronavirus thing is just a big media hype ?

I don't have to wear a mask when I'm at Disney World ?


THAT'S GREAT NEWS !!!

https://www.cbsnews.com/video/florida-coronavirus-cases-soar-as-governor-refuses-to-alter-reopening/
yes immediately go to hyperbole!! GREAT JOB!! You should write headlines for a living!!

Did you read AT ALL the other stuff?? I mean AT ALL? Or do you absolutely refuse to believe that maybe the virus is weakening, and not as bad in the community causing havoc as previously thought? The article actually addresses the population it has gone through causing issues. But that is in the article which requires reading...
 

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For those of you on Twitter who enjoy this topic I recommend @EthicalSkeptic
While it doesn't change the overall tenor of your message, change zero to one.


On the other hand, while the numbers are small, there has been a recent uptick in the number of hospitalizations in my home town and they are all young. Overall, this is still an evolving story.
Are these people hospitalized BECAUSE of C19 --- or they tested positive for C19 as a result for being the hospital for something else?
 
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Monykalyn

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While it doesn't change the overall tenor of your message, change zero to one.


On the other hand, while the numbers are small, there has been a recent uptick in the number of hospitalizations in my home town and they are all young. Overall, this is still an evolving story.
Is it a true uptick? are they moderate or severe cases? Or cases which previously would have been told to stay home and only come in if worse, but now admitted as the hospitals have room? I am having no luck in finding the answers to this.
 

"Roger"

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Again, I am talking about very small numbers so it might well not be a true uptick, but it is because of C19. It is a special area of the hospital (actually a converted area in the ER) devoted to treating C19 cases.
 

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Okay, I read the summary. This is very promising. If this is true, then Covid should go away if everyone takes precautions recommended by the CDC. We could be done with Covid in no time.
Right. The operative words are « if everyone takes precautions ».
We should be done with Covid in no time??? There has been a slight resurgence in the Asian countries. This has been going on there since probably November 2019, 7 months ago, and coming back. What does that say about North America? IMHO it says we are not done by a long shot.
 

Conan

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nothing like a 'conservative' celebrity lawyer to give us the latest "good" news about the coronavirus !!
(we are so lucky )
Better yet, at .04% x US population 328,000,000 = 131,200
versus 122,750 Americans already dead, we’re within a week or so of the end of the epidemic, even if everybody catches it!
 

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Better yet, at .04% x US population 328,000,000 = 131,200
versus 122,750 Americans already dead, we’re within a week or so of the end of the epidemic, even if everybody catches it!
Your math is off by 10x. 300,000,000 * .004=1,312,000.
 

PigsDad

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Better yet, at .04% x US population 328,000,000 = 131,200
versus 122,750 Americans already dead, we’re within a week or so of the end of the epidemic, even if everybody catches it!
The report said the death rate for those under the age of 70 is .04%, not the full population.
The median death rate for all ages was listed at .25%

Kurt
 
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sue1947

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Your math is off by 10x. 300,000,000 * .004=1,312,000.

.04% =.0004 not .004.
This is why peer reviewed SCIENTIFIC studies are so much better.
:doh:
 

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I do not think we can extrapolate to the whole population of the US. Not everyone catches the flu, even if exposed. Not everyone will catch the C19 even if there is zero social distancing (not the case obviously). Interesting article about why some people could have a head start, their immune system may respond better because of past exposure to other viruses.

 

PigsDad

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Your math is off by 10x. 300,000,000 * .004=1,312,000.
Actually, Conan was correct. 0.04% is .0004, not .004 .
However, Conan was just using the under 70 percentage. Using the whole population median death rate of 0.25%, that would put the the number at 328M * .0025 = 820,000.

Kurt
 
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